MIN - IND

[shrink]

I was talking about this on the MIN board trying to explain how a team could benefit by saving cap space waiving Ryan Gomes, and I thought I'd bring it over.

TJ Ford + #10 for Ramon Sessions + Ryan Gomes (partially guaranteed) + #23

WHY FOR IND: Sessions is a young PG that can develop with the team. He showed a lot as a PG in MIL, and IND would have him locked into a nice contract for several years. Using TJ Ford creates the minutes - The #23 pick is down in a section that is interest. Also, when they waive Gomes, they'll save about $3.5 mil in cap space. That's got to give them the wiggle room to stay under the lux, and save them about $8 mil in cash.

WHY FOR MIN: I imagine they'd love the trade flexibility the #10 pick would give them, and there are also interesting players at that level if they choose to draft. TJ Ford is expiring, so he's gone once Rubio gets here. It costs them $3.5 mil of their cap space, but it also makes for a very effective use of last year's remaining TPE money, turning it into the #10.


The #10 is definitely the best asset in the deal, and I'm wondering if perhaps whether you can stack enough smaller positives together to get it:

1. Ramon Sessions
2. Move TJ Ford's deal because its over-priced.
3. Don't waste this season's minutes (TJ isn't the future), and try new PG with other youth
4. Gomes gives them cap space they need to be under the lux
5. Don't have to pay another $2 mil to the #10
6. Pick up the #23

But you're right - I don't have a problem with people thinking IND could say, "No, we'd rather keep the #10."

[shrink]

MIN posters were OK with that deal, and most aplaud Kahn for refusing the #10 for Flynn (which I think is fair, but I'd say no as well).

Most are also OK with #10 for #16 + #23, if there is still any interest in that .. though interest in trading down generally fades on message boards as draft day nears.

[BiggDawg897]

TJ Ford + #10 for Ramon Sessions + Ryan Gomes (partially guaranteed) + #23

Throw in the 16 and it'd be more interesting. Thing is we're not in a full fledge salary dump mode. Yeah we've got expirings that we've invested a ton of value in, but we'd much rather move them for an impact player. Plus, Bird wants to win more this season. With this deal we basically just add Sessions, whom I like in a back-up role, but by no means as a major guy to build around, and won't equal wins. Essentially, with this we'd put a few more dollars in our pocket for next offseason(which we don't need, got plenty of space in a weak free agent class) , and give up a high pick that has much more value than anything coming back. The only positive is getting rid of Ford, and he will have his own unique value come trade deadline if he can't be moved for something decent this off-season.

[shrink]

Will the $2 mil guaranteed salary for the #10 put you over the lux?

[shrink]

TJ Ford + #10 for Ramon Sessions + Ryan Gomes (partially guaranteed) + #23

Throw in the 16 and it'd be more interesting. .

That's way too expensive.

16 + 23 is roughly equal to the #10

Ramon Sessions has value, and Ryan Gomes and his $3 mil of cap relief has value, and TJ Ford at $8.5 mil has negative trade value.

[Boneman2]

There is nothing negative about an expiring deal, no matter how you spin it. Shedding Sessions and Gomes respective deals are more than beneficial for Minnesota. For Indiana to give up TJ's expiring for their guaranteed salary is of neutral consequence at best.

[shrink]

There is nothing negative about an expiring deal, no matter how you spin it. Shedding Sessions and Gomes respective deals are more than beneficial for Minnesota. For Indiana to give up TJ's expiring for their guaranteed salary is of neutral consequence at best.

Nope. Bottom-line here is that somebody writes $8.5 mil in checks to TJ Ford, and TJ Ford is not worth $8.5 mil.

All an expiring contract is, is a mechanism for a team to take on a future salary. It all depends on whether the incoming salary is worthwhile to the team as to whether to take on that indebtedness. Trading an expiring for Brand is bad, trading one for LeBron is good. However, its the mehcanism you're trading -- TJ Ford is still not worth his contract.

BTW - keep in mind Gomes is a partially guaranteed deal. If he's traded and waived before 6/30, he only gets a guaranteed $1 mil. If MIN keeps Gomes, they waive him themselves and add to their 2010 cap space. Moving him is not "more than beneficial for Minnesota"

[Moooose]

I surprisingly actually liking that even without the 16th pick involved but i wish we could get a 2nd rounder. At 23, there is a slim chance of landing Sanders but i think (if we get lucky) he, Whiteside, and Orton COULD still be available. I don't know but i have a feeling this rumor's not gonna happen.

[basketballwacko2]

Will the $2 mil guaranteed salary for the #10 put you over the lux?

I'd be more into the deal if it was Ford and the #10 for Sessions, Gomes #23 and #16 or you can keep the #23 and give us #16. I kicked the idea of Gomes and his contract around some myself, someone should want him and be willing to pay a bit for him, I was thinking the Heat and the Hornets.

I'd like to give Sessions a try at PG his size at 6'4'' makes him interesting from a matchup perspective since there are a lot of small PGs now.

[basketballwacko2]

There is nothing negative about an expiring deal, no matter how you spin it. Shedding Sessions and Gomes respective deals are more than beneficial for Minnesota. For Indiana to give up TJ's expiring for their guaranteed salary is of neutral consequence at best.

Well they don't really have any bad contracts, Gomes is only $1 million garanteed and Sessions is fairly reasonable, so to them TJ being expiring is not that big a deal, he's costing $8.5 million in 2010-11. TJ is worth more to a team like the Bulls or the Raps who have longer term contracts that they want out of like Hinrich and Calderon.

I would think Foster or Dunleavy might be more valued by Minny due to their playing a position of need for them. What about Foster or MDJ and the #10 for Sessions, Gomes, #16 and #23. Obviously I'd rather give Minny Dunleavy in that deal. I do really want to move TJ as well.

[shrink]

There is nothing negative about an expiring deal, no matter how you spin it. Shedding Sessions and Gomes respective deals are more than beneficial for Minnesota. For Indiana to give up TJ's expiring for their guaranteed salary is of neutral consequence at best.

Well they don't really have any bad contracts, Gomes is only $1 million garanteed and Sessions is fairly reasonable, so to them TJ being expiring is not that big a deal, he's costing $8.5 million in 2010-11. TJ is worth more to a team like the Bulls or the Raps who have longer term contracts that they want out of like Hinrich and Calderon.

I would think Foster or Dunleavy might be more valued by Minny due to their playing a position of need for them. What about Foster or MDJ and the #10 for Sessions, Gomes, #16 and #23. Obviously I'd rather give Minny Dunleavy in that deal. I do really want to move TJ as well.

Maybe you can work out something in a three-way, but I'm not optimistic. The problem here is that while Foster or Dunleavey may fit a little better, since they are one-year deals, they won't significantly change MIN's future. The Timberwolves will be bad next year regardless, and even if they get a better player, they would be using up minutes on the guy that could be used to develop a younger player that may be a part of their future.

Since 16 + 23 is close to the value of 10, and MIN values Sessions and Gomes, I don't see a legitimate way to put the #16 in. I think MIN could be talked into giving up a 2nd rounder.

[shrink]

$11,968,253 Murphy
$10,973,202 Granger
$10,561,384 Dunleavey
$8,500,000 TJ Ford
$6,655,000 Foster
$5,459,184 (Tinsley)
$2,500,000 D. Jones
$2,069,040 B. Rush
$1,998,600 Hansbrough
$1,685,280 Hibbert
$1,500,000 Solomon Jones
$885,120 McRoberts
$473,604 Roster min (or $762,195 for Price)
$2,238,360 #10 pick (with standard 20% siging bonus)

$67,467,027

I estimate the lux is going to come in around $68 mil, so it looks like you could stay pat, and maybe even add one more min-salary bench guy and run with a roster of 14. However, to be so capped up and inflexible so early in the season is tough, so IND would certainly get some value out of waiving Gomes and saving $3 mil (actually $3.3 for the deal).

[basketballwacko2]

Shrink starting at this: Ford and #10 for Sessions, Gomes and #23, what would you need added by the pacers to get the wolves to ad the #16? What about Solo Jones he's cheap, young and expiring and showed some good play last season, or are we talking about adding a Brandon Rush?

[shrink]

Shrink starting at this: Ford and #10 for Sessions, Gomes and #23, what would you need added by the pacers to get the wolves to ad the #16? What about Solo Jones he's cheap, young and expiring and showed some good play last season, or are we talking about adding a Brandon Rush?

Great question! To be honest, I'd have a hard time answering it, with so much up in the air right now. Will the #4 be Wesley Johnson? Favors? Cousins?!? Will Jefferson be traded? Who'll be there ta #16? Its very hard for me to even figure out my own team, let alone the value for your young players.

Let me toss this up on the Wolves board, and see what they have to say. I'm not so proud that I can't say, "I don't know, but I'll ask."

[shrink]

MIN fans seem on board with the original trade, but like most teams, you probably like your young guys more than others do, so getting to 16 by adding one seems like it would move people farther from concensus.

[Starkiller]

MIN fans seem on board with the original trade, but like most teams, you probably like your young guys more than others do, so getting to 16 by adding one seems like it would move people farther from concensus.

Other than Hibbert & Granger I'm not against moving any of guys.