A Look at Granger's Huge Drop in Efficiency

[Levy2725]

I wanted to share a post I wrote at my site Hickory High about Danny Granger's huge drop in scoring efficiency this season:
http://hickory-high.com/2011/01/06/expe ... y-granger/

The post uses a stat I've been playing with called Expected Scoring. Basically it looks at a player's shot selection and calculates how many points he should be scoring if he shot the league average from each zone on the floor. Here's a few choice nuggets to stimulate some discussion:

For the first time in the past four seasons Danny Granger is averaging fewer point per 40 than expected. Never a terrific shooter at the rim or on long jumpers, his point differential has also declined into the negative range on three pointers and shots from 10-15ft. Altogether he is averaging 0.21 points less than expected per 40 minutes. This may not seem like much, but for a player who averaged 3.00 points more than expected per 40 minutes just two seasons ago, and one who is asked to carry such a huge offensive load for his team, this lack of efficiency is quite serious.

This season Granger has increasingly been forcing contested shots, one of the reasons he is shooting at career low percentages. One place we can see this is in the percentage of his shots which are assisted on.

Granger's Ast% has fallen to 54.4% a five year low for him. In addition his Ast% on shots at the rim and on three pointers are both career lows, 56.5% and 89.4% respectively. Too often he catches the ball on the perimeter, sizes up his defender and then rises for a contested jumpshot without even challenging the defense to move or adjust. His forced drives to the rim are contributing to his increase in turnovers as well. His Ast% on mid-range jumpers (10-15ft.) has risen steadily the past three seasons to 28.6%, but it's nowhere near the 45.2% it was during his All-Star campaign. We see the same thing with his Ast% on long two pointers (16-23ft.). The 41.0% he has posted this year is not a career low, but it's a far cry from the 54.2% he posted in 2008 or the 75.2% he posted in 2007.

I'd love to hear feedback if anyone has any thoughts on the matter.

[Miller4ever]

This comes as no surprise. He's just not shooting it as well, and when he takes it to the rim, he's not finishing strong, just expecting fouls and not getting them. It's an interesting metric, but if FG% suffices, then just use that. Did you explore the cause of the issue?

There's also another reason for his drop in efficiency. He's not getting to the line as much as the previous two seasons.

I'm with you wen you say that the other players need to be given more responsibility. I would like to see that given to Collison, Hibbert, Rush, and Hansbrough, not Posey and TJ Ford.

[Levy2725]

I explored the cause a little in my post. The basics are he's taking more shots from inefficient areas, and taking more contested jumpers. I use his Ast% to illustrate how his shots seem to be coming outside the flow and movement of the offense.

I like this expected scoring stat because it illustrates how far above or below a league average shooter a player is but uses points as the unit of measurement. It's certainly not better than just looking at a player's FG%, just different.

[captaincrunk]

I explored the cause a little in my post. The basics are he's taking more shots from inefficient areas, and taking more contested jumpers. I use his Ast% to illustrate how his shots seem to be coming outside the flow and movement of the offense.

I like this expected scoring stat because it illustrates how far above or below a league average shooter a player is but uses points as the unit of measurement. It's certainly not better than just looking at a player's FG%, just different.

It would be better if you compared it to his prior seasons or something. I don't care if Centers shoot .003% from long range middle left, Granger is supposed to make that.

[Miller4ever]

I think he did have comparisons to previous seasons.

[Scoot McGroot]

I'd love to hear feedback if anyone has any thoughts on the matter.

I'm not a huge fan of stat metrics by any means, but I love the look at a root cause of Danny's issues.

Essentially, he needs to be looking to make the extra pass.

[Levy2725]

Essentially, he needs to be looking to make the extra pass.

Again I don't know how much is just my own personal bias. But it seems to me like he frequently comes off a screen already having decided to rise up and shoot it whether he's guarded or not. Everything move he makes seems predetermined, like you can see on his face and in his body language what he's about to do offensively before he does it.

What scares me is that if I'm reading his offensive intentions that easily, than you can guarantee the defense is to since you wouldn't say I've generally got a "High Basketball IQ"

[captaincrunk]

I think he did have comparisons to previous seasons.

I meant only in regards to himself. The league average from X position is meaningless, people try to take shots where THEY can make them, not where the average is highest.