Playoff Guarantee

granger05 · Post #1 » by **granger05** » Mon Apr 9, 2012 9:08 pm

I've been following Hollinger's playoff odds all year and we finally hit 100%. Obviously, we haven't locked up a spot yet though we are 6 games up on Milwaukee (#9) with 10 to play. I don't mean to brag, but we have a 2% chance of being champs.

Post #2 » by **mizzoupacers** » Mon Apr 9, 2012 9:26 pm

Dizzy Dean says it ain't bragging if you can do it one time out of fifty

Boneman2 · Post #3 » by **Boneman2** » Mon Apr 9, 2012 9:54 pm

mizzoupacers wrote:Dizzy Dean says it ain't bragging if you can do it one time out of fifty

Just wrote about Dean and Satchel Paige in their barnstorming days during the 30's & early 40's. Eureka moment.

Post #4 » by **Miller4ever** » Mon Apr 9, 2012 10:45 pm

Hollinger and those odds, which he himself refutes. Mathematically speaking, we are not clinched, and until that happens, I'm taking nothing for granted. At the same time, we should clinch soon because these next 4 games are against less-than-stellar competition.

Wizop · Post #5 » by **Wizop** » Tue Apr 10, 2012 3:35 am

we've clinched against everyone below the Bucks. our magic number to keep the Bucks from passing us is 3 pacer wins or milwaukee losses. Bucks play the Knicks on Wednesday in a key game. we play the Bucks twice and if we win both we can lose everything else and still be guaranteed the 8 spot. my prediction is that the Bucks slip in and Philly slips out although both have two games left with us which could make or break them.

Starkiller · Post #6 » by **Starkiller** » Tue Apr 10, 2012 12:48 pm

We need schedule a home playoff game for us all to go to and meet up at.

Post #7 » by **Scoot McGroot** » Tue Apr 10, 2012 1:17 pm

Really hoping to hold onto the #3 slot. That'd be a great step.

granger05 · Post #8 » by **granger05** » Tue Apr 10, 2012 3:28 pm

The third seed would be great, but I really want to win a playoff series more than anything. I think it's all about matchups for us and with the pile-up between spots 3 through 6 we could end up playing Boston, Atlanta or Orlando. I liked it better when Philly was hanging around I thought we matched up well with them in a series. These other teams all have more playoff experience than our group so I worry about a letdown. Also, if we do get out of the first round I really wanted to get another series against the Bulls and I don't see them losing the #1 seed.

Wizop · Post #9 » by **Wizop** » Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:16 pm

I should have posted all the magic numbers Here they are without taking tie breakers into account. The number would be one less for any team we edged in the season series.

Chicago - 18 (their number to lock us out is 2)
Miami - 17 (their number to lock us out is 5)
Atlanta - 9
Orlando - 9
Boston - 8
Philly - 5
New York - 5
Milwaukee - 3

The formula for a 66 game season is 67 - Pacer wins - other teams losses. using 66 produces the magic number for a tie. in an 82 game season the number used for an outright win is 83.

granger05 · Post #10 » by **granger05** » Tue Apr 10, 2012 9:10 pm

You can play around with this too: http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/predictions

It only took me a few tries (most of the day) to get this:

Grangerous · Post #11 » by **Grangerous** » Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:48 pm

The 3 seed sounds nice but I would much rather end up playing Atlanta than Orlando in first round and I'd much rather see the bulls than the heat second round. I think the 4 seed would give us the greatest chance come playoff time. Granted the season isn't over and the standings could still change a lot.

Wizop · Post #12 » by **Wizop** » Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:53 pm

I don't expect Boston to pass us for the 3 although we could certainly drop to the 5 which would be functionally equivalent to the 4. however, I don't want to play Boston in the first round. they are just playing too well. the best spot is probably against Orlando with Howard out with a bad back. however, I'm not sure they can hold on to the 6 if he's out for all the games.

Post #13 » by **Scoot McGroot** » Wed Apr 11, 2012 5:06 pm

Wizop wrote:I don't expect Boston to pass us for the 3 although we could certainly drop to the 5 which would be functionally equivalent to the 4. however, I don't want to play Boston in the first round. they are just playing too well. the best spot is probably against Orlando with Howard out with a bad back. however, I'm not sure they can hold on to the 6 if he's out for all the games.

We're only 1 game ahead of the 6th spot. 3-6 is in a complete flux, and all within 2 games of each other. I want the 3 seed, as it shows that we finish strong. Let everything else fall where it may.

Post #14 » by **Miller4ever** » Wed Apr 11, 2012 7:11 pm

We're strong enough to go to the second round. It would be funny if we were the ones to keep McGrady out of the second round again. It would be sad if Tracy McGrady doesn't make it to the second round.

Wizop · Post #15 » by **Wizop** » Sat Apr 14, 2012 1:21 pm

granger05 wrote:You can play around with this too: http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/predictions

I can see the Knicks taking out Miami in the first round and Boston taking out Chicago in the second round. that'd give us home court advantage until the finals.

Wizop · Post #16 » by **Wizop** » Sun Apr 15, 2012 4:25 am

Magic number for 6th is now one. well one win or losses by both Philly and NY. should NY lose tomorrow we'll be past them and sure of the 7th and then Monday a Pacer win or a Philly loss would lock up 6.

Post #17 » by **Miller4ever** » Sun Apr 15, 2012 6:55 am

We're in a good spot to keep 3rd. We're 2.5 games in front of the next team down.