Calling it now - DJ Augustin has a huge year

[jowglenn]

Listen, guys.

Listen.

Imagine you're a point guard coming out of college and you happen to land in the deepest biggest draft in years. Years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_NBA_Draft

You are a pretty highly-touted pick. You go top 10, even in such a strong draft.

But you get picked by Charlotte. You know, Charlotte, run by Michael Jordan. The Bobcats.

The next 4 years are spent trying to be a point guard on one of the worst most dysfunctional nba teams around.

Look at these rosters:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHA/2009.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHA/2010.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHA/2011.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHA/2012.html


You try to be a great basketball player, but what can you do? Your pass to Tyrus Thomas flew threw his fingers. Corey Maggette dribbled down the clock and fumbled the ball and now you have to shoot with 2 on the shot clock. You're running the pick and roll with fat boris diaw. Yikes.

But you're actually pretty good. You're actually maybe worthy of the place you were picked, but you've been on awful teams shifting around the random crap of the NBA.


Finally, you get your chance. New team, a good team. A team that has a set roster, not crazy flux year in and year out. A clear role - the 1st guard off the bench, the 'true' point guard on the team.

Instead of passing to Matt Carroll, you're passing to Danny Granger! Instead of getting the ball a second too late to make that effective 3, you're getting a pinpoint David West pass out of the high post. A GOOD screen! Players that can work cohesively as a high level professional NBA team, instead of byron mullens and kemba walker and DJ White.

Oh, and you're on a one-year contract, and it's your first chance to show the NBA world what you can do, and how effective of a point guard you can be in a good situation.

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you my bold prediction for this Pacers season.


DJ Augustin, 2012 NBA most improved player.

He begins the season as a very good backup and before you know it, Hill gets an injury, DJ takes over the starting job, Hill comes back in his logical 6th man role. Wing minutes will roughly be 32 Augustin, 34 George, 32 Granger, 28 Hill, 18 Green.

Here's my prediction:

Post All-Star Break stats for DJ Augustin: 32 mpg. 18 PPG. 8 APG. 3 RPG. 46% FG and 40% 3P.

Biggest game of the season: 35 points, 15 assists, 6 rebounds. It's due. It's coming.

I'm calling it.

[Wizop]

while I hope your optimism pays off, I don't see Hill losing his starting position. for DJ to get more than 18 minutes at the point, GH will have to get minutes at the two and I don't see that happening unless Lance and Green and OJ all flop.

[jowglenn]

while I hope your optimism pays off, I don't see Hill losing his starting position. for DJ to get more than 18 minutes at the point, GH will have to get minutes at the two and I don't see that happening unless Lance and Green and OJ all flop.

Well Green should get a lot of minutes backing up Granger at SF, or at SG while George is playing SF.

Orlando Johnson? I am operating on the assumption that he never plays a minute in the NBA and is just some 2nd rounder that doesn't make it at all, like most other 2nd rounders.

Hill playing at the 2? What's wrong with that for 10-15 minutes per game? He did it plenty last year - collison averaged 32 mpg, hill averaged 26 mpg.

Lance.... well he only played garbage minutes last year, and frankly, I don't have a problem with that continuing. He's gotta earn the minutes, and if he does, good for him, but I'm not banking on it.

Way I see it, there's 48+48+48 minutes at the 1/2/3 spots - that makes a total of 144 minutes for those 3 spots. Assuming we never play any small ball with Granger at PF, that's gotta be divvied up between hill/augustin/george/green/granger, then stephenson/johnson/ahearn/gaines/young get the garbage minutes.

Let's say Hill, George, and Granger start and each get 32 minutes per game. That leaves a grand total of 48 minutes for the backups.

DJ Augustin is obviously capable of playing big minutes - he's been a starter on the bobcats, and has averaged 27 mpg in his career. I guarantee he averages more than 18 mpg this season with the Pacers. I also think his skills will finally shine, and we'll simply have to give him minutes, because it'll be conducive to winning.

He gets 30 mpg, Green gets the remaining 18. Sorry Lance, I know it was finally gonna be your year, but you're not as good as augustin or green, and you're going to get squeezed out of the rotation because Augustin is just going to play that damn well. OK, maybe he gets 8 mpg, Augustin only gets 24 and Green gets 16. Fine.

I don't think it's crazy at all to bring Hill off the bench - Manu did it, Harden does it. He'd still get his starter's minutes.

What I like is that if you start Augustin/George/Granger, then you can sub in Hill and Green and keep any one of those starters on the floor - doesn't matter who, the skills will mesh. augustin/hill/green? Works. Hill/Green/Granger? Works. Augustin/Green/Granger? Works.

Obviously you can just start Hill as well, but I think it might work out best for the team to have a guy like augustin starting and hill coming off the bench.

It will be interesting to see if Augustin blows up like I expect him to.

[Wizop]

I still don't think so. if you bring Hill off the bench, I think it means he's a combo guard getting half his minutes at 1 and half at 2. I think Green still soaks up all the minutes at 2 and 3 not taken by Lance or OJ, and that leaves none for Hill. that of course assumes that Green is more productive than AJ but that is how I see it at least until playoff time when the rotations shorten.

[8305]

I too see a rotation of Hill, DJ, George, Granger and Green sharing the minutes at positions 1, 2 and 3. Augustine and Green are just that much better Lance and O.J. A by product of that will be Hill playing some at the 2 and a Hill/Augustine backcourt for 10 to 15 minutes per night. That translating into a MIP or 6th man of the year season for Augustine is more than I expect. I do think he could be a vastly under rated player at this point of his career and nice upgrade or at least better fit on this team than Collison.

I also think either Lance or O.J. won't make the team.

[Moooose]

I also think either Lance or O.J. won't make the team.

I don't really see us cutting these two guys off the team, especially Lance, unless it is really badly needed. They are cheap, on the learning curve, and undeniably still have high ceilings. And Larry is all out in his support of Lance.

[Moooose]

Back to the topic, i really think George Hill will spend most of his time at the point. There would be times when we will surely need Augustin and Hill on the same time on the floor, like what we did when Collison was still here.

The point guard spot is pretty set i believe with Hill as the starter, DJ Augustin the primary reserve and Gaines playing AJ Price's role. Ahearn is a good player but i think if we need to cut someone off, it would be him.

I understand your point in thinking Hill would log in big minutes at the two because we already saw that could happen with Collison. But our team now have legit back-up's at the wing positions in Green and Young. Not to mention that Lance and OJ are in the mix, and most of those guys are interchangebale at the 2 and 3 positions.

Vogel would probably make Hill concentrate on being a natural PG, and operate on the assumption that DJ would be too expensive to retain next season.

[Jake0890]

Ahearn is a good player but i think if we need to cut someone off, it would be him.

I'll take a sharpshooter in Ahearn over our 2-3 position heavy roster with Gaines.

But anyways, there is no way Hill will lose his starting position, even if Augustin outplays him. Sure, Augustin may be the most improved player of the year, but they paid George Hill 40 million dollars. He'll be our starter, unless he tears his ACL and is out for the season.

[tocooks]

Taking Hill out of the starting lineup goes against everything management has said and done this offseason, so I dont think its a very likely scenario.

Augustin is a solid player but to say he is going to put up better individual stats on a team where he is the 6th option as oppose to the 1st or 2nd option doesnt make sense to me. How many guys go from starting on a bad team to being a role player on a contender and put up better individual stats? Unless he can score more points while taking WAY less shots I dont see it.

[Scoot McGroot]

I also think either Lance or O.J. won't make the team.

And Larry is all out in his support of Lance.

Well, Larry isn't around this year. Whenever there's a GM change, the "pet projects" of the old GM may not still be a focus of the new GM, who may have their own projects. Or, they just may value players differently. I would think that Lance would be more likely to be cut than Orlando, simply on the belief that Pritch picked Orlando based on scouting and input from Larry and Donnie. However, Lance was picked and scouted only by Larry, and no input from Donnie or Pritchard. Fair or not, sometime that's just the breaks. Bringing in Sam Young, Sundiata Gaines, and Blake Ahearn is a shot across the bow to some of these guys. Any of those 3 can play in the NBA and produce.

[Moooose]

Ahearn is a good player but i think if we need to cut someone off, it would be him.

I'll take a sharpshooter in Ahearn over our 2-3 position heavy roster with Gaines.

Gaines is a point guard.

[Moooose]

@Scoot:

Well, you have a point but i really do not think Larry is totally out of the picture. He may be semi-retired but he's still a team consultant if i am not mistaken.
The team really haven't gave Lance Stephenson enough "real" playing time yet for them to consider him a bust. This could be his year. He did well in the summer league playing the point. With DJ Augustin on a one-year deal, i think it would be logical to keep Lance and re-sign him if he proves that he can play a combo guard role.

[Pacersike]

I would be very surprised if Lance gets cut before he gets another chance to prove himself in regular season.
If Kevin and Donnie cut him basing themselves of how he does at practice, it would not only confirm the fact that Bird is a horrible talent evaluator, it would also mean K and D agree that Larry sees talent where there isn't any.

Hansbrough, Stephenson... let us all pray he has it right about Miles this time

[Indy2thaWindy]

Augustin really isn't that good. The one thing I'll give him over Collison is decision making, but they both have the same flaws that keep them from becoming effective players in the NBA.

And before people call me a hater, dumb, or just hoping he does bad so Lance gets more time, most people probably view him the same way I do. He's been a disappointment so far through his career and there is a reason why their wasn't a big market out there for him in free agency. I'm not the one going out on limb here, jowglenn is.

[Wizop]

I would be very surprised if Lance gets cut before he gets another chance to prove himself in regular season.

I think he was still the youngest player on our summer league team. there is no reason to rush him.

[Wizop]

Augustin really isn't that good. The one thing I'll give him over Collison is decision making, but they both have the same flaws that keep them from becoming effective players in the NBA.

don't disagree and I think Collison is actually better and the concern there was his willingness to accept playing behind Hill even though he said all the right things publicly. time will tell how well Augustine accepts the role.

but no matter how bad Augustin turns out, please don't find it necessary to post dozens of messages this year saying he's terrible. we'll remember your position.