Define a Paul George break out season

[8305]

Heard Mark Boyle say that George needs to break out this year for the Pacers to improve remarkably. He didn't define what he would need to do for that achievement though.

Given all the guys we have who can score (Paul was probably the 5th scoring option once Hill became a starter) under any circumstance it's heard for me to see him being any more than a 15 point per game guy.

Better decisions, an improved handle, finishing at the basket more consistently would make him a pretty remarkable player. At his age those expectations are reasonable. Where does his does an improved Paul George fit with this team?

[Reginald Wayne]

Confidence and a Killer's mentality. If he doesn't get those then it nothing else really matters.

[Moooose]

I think he's more of the 4th option in offense next to Granger, West, and HIbbert. George Hill needs to be a playmaker more than anything else. If George Hill is to lose his starting job to Augustin, i think playmaking could be the issue.

Anyways, though George Paul's per36 averages aren't really that high, i think a breakout season will be defined by his dominance and confidence next season, as what Reginald Wayne also says.

[Jake0890]

Being able to step up late in games when we need him to. Previously, Granger has been the guy taking the late shots, but he's been pretty sketchy when he has taken the shots. He needs to play more of a scoring role on the team, rather than being the backup scorer to Granger.

There's no statistical way to judge a breakout season for Paul George, I just think he needs to be a bigger scoring part of the team.

[tocooks]

An increase of 5 ppg while still playing lockdown defense would classify as a break out season.

[DWCP2]

Think the thing that will help him is getting his touches equal to Granger (15 a game). Last year his shots were under 10 a game (8 in playoffs).

This is what Larry Brown did when he took over the Pacers, equaizing their shot attempts.

[Wizop]

I'd be happy with 15 point a game although a few points more would be welcome. last year he was at 13+. I'd like to see more rebounds too although when I looked at the stats I was surprised to see he was already out bounding Granger last year. so what is a breakout? I'd say being our leading scorer about once a week.

[BiggDawg897]

Make less talented players gaurding him a liability. Finish strong at the rim. Confidence, confidence, confidence. Mid-range jumper? Keep up the D.

[Jake0890]

I'd be happy with 15 point a game although a few points more would be welcome. last year he was at 13+. I'd like to see more rebounds too although when I looked at the stats I was surprised to see he was already out bounding Granger last year. so what is a breakout? I'd say being our leading scorer about once a week.

It's not HOW MUCH he scores, but WHEN. If he can score 15 in the first quarter, but is shut down the rest of the game, he's not "breaking out". The rest of the team can handle the first 3 quarters, but we need someone who can score in bunches down the stretch, in the clutch, when we need it.

[Wizop]

agreed that he needs to be a viable option all game long, every game. I do think you are placing too much emphasis on one and one skills though. remember we had Miami beat when their two superstars were just taking turns trying to be clutch on their own but couldn't keep up when they began playing together.

[Scoot McGroot]

I'd like to see 16-18ppg in the flow of offense, while maintaining great defense on opposing wings. If he can be a defensive force while also being a prime offensive force in our system, then he'll be a top young swingman in this league immediately.

[PR07]

I'd like to see 16-18ppg in the flow of offense, while maintaining great defense on opposing wings. If he can be a defensive force while also being a prime offensive force in our system, then he'll be a top young swingman in this league immediately.

I'd probably agree with this. Somewhere between 15-18 ppg and more consistency on defense. He needs to more from a lackadaisical scorer to a go-to guy right with Granger, West, and Hibbert.

[Indy4Life]

I think the key will be in his ability to get to the line. He has the handle to be the guy to close out games and that is what this team needs. He can increase his ppg by simply getting to the line and be just a little more consistent with his jumper...I think both of these are in his future..near future.

[thomas1897]

Paul George needs to get some pointers from the Indiana great Reggie Miller. Learning the two position in the NBA for a player of his size requires adjustments and hard work to become a player like Reggie Miller. The NBA does not have many two guards his size that are premier players. To distinguish himself and become a complete play demands discipline and a strong work ethic. Is Paul George motivated to make a change? Teamate Roy Hibbert did. Where are you Paul George are you going to be a marginal player or a great one? The Pacers have always drafted good players between 6-6 to 7-0. Developing players such as George McGinnis, Mel Daniels, Bob Netolicky,Darnel Hillman, Roger Brown, Chuck Person, Steve Stapanovich, Herb Williams, Clark Kellogg,Detlef Schermf, and others.Howver, there have been some who could not cut it Jonathan Bender knee injury and did not develop before the knee injury occured.The challenge is Paul George are you coming to play; please bring your A game or just be a marginal player.

[thomas1897]

Paul George needs to get some pointers from the Indiana great Reggie Miller. Learning the two position in the NBA for a player of his size requires adjustments and hard work to become a player like Reggie Miller. The NBA does not have many two guards his size that are premier players. To distinguish himself and become a complete player demands discipline and a strong work ethic. Is Paul George motivated to make a change? Teamate Roy Hibbert did. Where are you Paul George are you going to be a marginal player or a great one? The Pacers have always drafted good players between 6-6 to 7-0. Developing players such as George McGinnis, Mel Daniels, Bob Netolicky,Darnel Hillman, Roger Brown, Chuck Person, Steve Stapanovich, Herb Williams, Clark Kellogg,Detlef Schermf, and others.However, there have been some who could not cut it Jonathan Bender knee injury and did not develop before the knee injury occured.The challenge is Paul George are you coming to play; please bring your A game or just be a marginal player. 0
thomas1897
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[Jake0890]

As much as everyone's idea of a breakout season would be a dream, but the stats are against him:

http://www.eightpointsnineseconds.com/2012/09/by-george-dont-expect-too-much/#comments

[daschysta]

As the article mentioned James Harden, Montae Ellis, Eric Gordon and Joe Johnson say hi... While were at it how can we forget Danny Granger? He went from about 14 ppg to about 20 ppg in his 3rd season, and he was much older than PG going into it.

PG is also unique in the sense that alot of guys with comparable talent to him are drafted to bad teams and given the reigns early on, PG on the other hand is on a very good team, with lots of good older players he defers to, he was also drafted as a project.

The article also pointlessly limits the scope by only considering players who were exactly 22 entering their 3rd season. No crap there aren't too many cases it's way too specific for no reason. Looking more broadly at jumps between the 2nd and 3rd season of talented wing players in general and you can see that it is common, the 3rd year is typically when wings make a big leap.

(scoring increase between seasons 2 and 3, each player got significant minutes in his 2nd season and still saw a big jump in ppg in their 3rd)

Kobe Bryant- 4.5
Tracy McGrady- 6.1
Danny Granger- 5.7
Joe Johnson- 6.9
Eric Gordon- 5.4
Monta Ellis- 3.7
Paul Pierce- 5.8
Allen Iverson- 4.8
Brandon Roy- 3.5
Reggie Miller - 8.6
Kevin Martin- 9.4
Andre Igoudala 5.9

The mean of which is 5.9 ppg.

PG's role last year was to be a complementary player, but not for lack of talent, everything that has been reported indicates a PG that is seeking to be much more aggressive, he's indicated that one of his goals for the season is to make the ASG http://www.nba.com/pacers/news/paul-george-aiming-be-all-star , and he realizes that the ultimate fate of the team is largely tied to how much he is capable of doing http://www.indystar.com/article/20121001/SPORTS04/210020310/Pacer-guard-Paul-George-feel-like-there-s-lot-riding-me- . I think we'll see a huge leap from PG, yes, if he weren't on such a balanced team his stats could be higher, but I think he has the chance to emerge as arguably the teams best player this season.

As for that article quoted, it is really bad, not because I disagree with the premise, but because it is shoddily researched, purposely limits the scale of its purview to conform with its conclusion. You don't say, you were only able to find 4 players in recent NBA history who both played shooting guard were exactly 22 going into their 3rd season and significantly raised their scoring average... duh.

Vogel has said that he's going to rely on his starters to play greater minutes this season, and that George is going to be a bigger focus of the offense, as well as George's own strides pledge to play more assertively all point to a potential breakout season for the kid. He very well could do it. Even if he raised his scoring average by exactly the mean average of the 2nd to 3rd year leap by talented wings I compiled he'd average 18 ppg, we're on a deep team, so i'd peg him for a bit less, but George has the talent to score 16 ppg even in our balanced offense next year so long as he's aggressive enough. He has all the talent in the world and spent the entire summer focusing on his jumper and on ball handling, his two greatest weaknesses.

I could see him putting up

16-18 ppg 6.5-7.5 rpg 3-4 apg 1 bpg 2-2.5 spg next season and that could potentially net him an All-Star slot as either backup Shooting Guard, or one of the wild card slots, especially if he continues to build his reputation as a defensive stopper.

For reference his current Per 36 numbers are

14.7 ppg
6.8 ppg
2.9 apg
.7 bpg
2 spg

on very low usage. George improved vastly from his first to his 2nd year, and had a very good season last year despite being low on the offensive pecking order (very low usage) and deferring to the vets. I see no reason why he won't make another significantly leap next season, with more responsibility, higher expectations, higher offensive priority, and increased aggressiveness. George has star talent, great athleticism and size, and a good head on his shoulders, plus he works hard. George will take major steps next season, just like most wings as talented as he is.

Paul won't be a 25-30 ppg scorer, but I think he can get 20-22 at some point provided the team relies on him enough to make him 1st option. But he'll be a great rebounder, a great defensive player, a solid passer and good shooter. He's still very young, many players improve until they settle into their prime around age 24-26.

[Indy2thaWindy]

That's like one of my trade board posts, except with better grammar.