Is this year our best chance to win?

[Grang33r]

From Ric Bucher's debut column with the Bleacher Report, makes some interesting points-

The Pacers are a young squad with a player payroll ($71.431 million) on the cusp of the luxury-tax threshold ($71.748 million), but one opposing GM said the Pacers will have a hard time, for financial reasons, ever fielding a team deeper in talent than this one. Veteran swingman Danny Granger’s $14 million contract comes off the books next season, but that savings is wiped out by Paul George’s extension kicking in. Bottom line: Retaining Granger’s heir apparent and free-agent-to-be Lance Stephenson will require stripping the roster of its current depth. “One thing I can tell you,” the executive said, “Indy is not paying the luxury tax.”

Link- http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1820 ... s-tempered

Couple things though, i don't necessary agree with. One, while West and Scola will be a year older, and the payroll to be at about $66 million if you only count our active roster (not counting Granger or Lance), it does put us in a bit of a pickle for next season. But, George should improve. I fully believe they will re-sign Lance to a long term deal as well, and i think he still has much room to improve. And by all accounts, it seems as if Solomon Hill could be a big time contributor, even as early as this season but obviously as a sophomore in the league he should be an improved player.

They obviously won't be adding many reinforcements to this squad for next season, but the inner circle core we have should be improving on a year by year basis.

[EuroPacer]

I'd be hesitant to put any weight on Solo's shoulders as the 'squad improvement factor' for future seasons. I think this is indeed the best chance to get a ring. Mainly because I feel this group will be disappointed if they don't get it after being so close to toppling the Heat last season.

[Moooose]

Larry's faith in Stephenson is no secret, and he's off to a bigger role once Danny's contract expires. I think a $20 million / 4 years contract is pretty decent like Tony Allen's.

[mikepacernation]

I think that this is our best chance. We still have Granger and Stephenson. And after next year one will leave. So defiantly this is our best chance!

[Jake0890]

Absolutely it's our best chance to win. The best team in recent memory was last year, but now we add in Danny Granger, Luis Scola, and CJ Watson. Oh, and no more Gerald Green.

[Scoot McGroot]

This is our best year to win, viewing the team as a vacuum. However, if we can keep Lance, we'll have to make some ancillary moves (trades, signings, etc) each year to retool a bit. No one thought we'd be able to dump Green AND get a solid backup like Scola.

There's always some moves that can be made, and I think that Larry and company are going to be able to make the moves necessary for the next couple years to keep us going. Otherwise, we've got Paul George and George Hill signed for 5 and 3 years respectively (after this year), and West and Hibbert signed for AT LEAST 1 year past this year. Then, I think we have the inside seat at re-signing Roy for another 3-4 years even if he opts out.

Otherwise, if we need some clear cap space, I think you could see us deal Copeland or Mahinmi next year (depending on need) to fill out the other backup spots on the roster, or if Scola is done, see him waived to clear some space as well. There's options, flexibility, and moves that can be made.


TL;dr - This year is not the make or break/drop dead year for our Pacers.

[8305]

I don't see this year as make or break. We should be a solid playoff team as long as you have the nucleus of George, Hibbert and Hill. And, I think there is still considerable upside to George and Hibbert. But, after this season that upside will have to offset the loss of Granger and possibly Stephenson along with the likely decline of West and Scola. That's a pretty tall order for Roy and Paul.

Another thought, resigning Stephenson for something like 5 mil/year looks really unlikely to me. I think you are looking at something more like 8-10 mil/year. Not saying I wouldn't be worried about how Lance will react once he gets the big contract. But, if he can stay focused and build on what we saw at the end of last year? He could be a monster and a very touigh resign with our other committments.

Its pretty hard for me to see a better chance at winning it all than what we have this year.

[Wizop]

I think it would be hard for Lance to earn an 8mm contract without being good enough to carry us to well over 50 wins. my one worry is Oden. I wish we'd signed him just to keep him away from the Heat. I don't like thinking about him neutralizing Roy and forcing us to throw them into the small ball brier patch.

[Scoot McGroot]

I think it would be hard for Lance to earn an 8mm contract without being good enough to carry us to well over 50 wins. my one worry is Oden. I wish we'd signed him just to keep him away from the Heat. I don't like thinking about him neutralizing Roy and forcing us to throw them into the small ball brier patch.

Eh, he'd be able to possibly neutralize Roy for one play. One bump of his knee and he's likely out for the rest of the game and the next. I'm not too worried


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[8305]

I think it would be hard for Lance to earn an 8mm contract without being good enough to carry us to well over 50 wins. my one worry is Oden. I wish we'd signed him just to keep him away from the Heat. I don't like thinking about him neutralizing Roy and forcing us to throw them into the small ball brier patch.

Lance carrying us to well over 50 wins? Not sure how this determination would be made. I'm more inclined to look at George Hill, what he can be and is relative to what Lance can be. From a value perspective I'm not sure there is much difference.

[Scoot McGroot]

If Lance plays himself into an $8m-ish salary; that means he'll have had a monster year this year, and we likely will have won a championship. I'll take that.

Otherwise, if Lance walks, I see us targeting Thabo Sefalosha to play the same role Lance has as defensive stopper and ball "circulator". He'll likely come at around $3-ish million, and may allow us to fill out the rest of the roster.


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[Miller4ever]

Roy is 26 and Paul is 23. In 5 years they will be 31 and 28. If they are healthy, then we have a 5-year window of relevance, and if they are healthy and the front office is smart and a little lucky, we have a 5-year window of contention. This year is one peak, and then we may have another down the line if we need a "reload" season or two.

[8305]

Roy is 26 and Paul is 23. In 5 years they will be 31 and 28. If they are healthy, then we have a 5-year window of relevance, and if they are healthy and the front office is smart and a little lucky, we have a 5-year window of contention. This year is one peak, and then we may have another down the line if we need a "reload" season or two.

I agree, as long as these two are healthy they make us relevant (assuming the rest of the roster doesn't get completely messed up). This year definately looks to be a peak year and over the next 8 or so years there should be others.

[EuroPacer]

If Lance plays himself into an $8m-ish salary; that means he'll have had a monster year this year, and we likely will have won a championship. I'll take that.

Otherwise, if Lance walks, I see us targeting Thabo Sefalosha to play the same role Lance has as defensive stopper and ball "circulator". He'll likely come at around $3-ish million, and may allow us to fill out the rest of the roster.


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Not often I disagree with you, but Sefalosha for 3 millionish seems a far stretch. I reckon he'll develop well on an OKC team with Westbrook missing for a while and without a third scorer like Martin or Harden. I would say he is in a similar situation to Lance.

[Scoot McGroot]

If Lance plays himself into an $8m-ish salary; that means he'll have had a monster year this year, and we likely will have won a championship. I'll take that.

Otherwise, if Lance walks, I see us targeting Thabo Sefalosha to play the same role Lance has as defensive stopper and ball "circulator". He'll likely come at around $3-ish million, and may allow us to fill out the rest of the roster.


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Not often I disagree with you, but Sefalosha for 3 millionish seems a far stretch. I reckon he'll develop well on an OKC team with Westbrook missing for a while and without a third scorer like Martin or Harden. I would say he is in a similar situation to Lance.

Thabo will hit free agency at age 30 this summer, and he's coming off a 4 year/$14million deal. He's not developing any more, but that's ok. He'd fit in our lineup similarly to how Lance was this past year, lock down defender and distribution offensively while hitting an occasional jumper, especially from 3. However, Thabo doesn't have the offensive potential of Lance, but then he'd come cheaper.

In fact, if Scola and West play some minutes at the 5, I'd love to swing an Ian/OJ for Thabo/Thabeet deal this year. And I really like Ian. I just think Thabo would be a great add in case of Danny not being healthy this year, while Thabeet would be more of an emergency center.

I just really like Thabo.


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