NBA Adjusts Cap & Tax Projections; Does it Affect the Pacers?

Post #1 » by **Scoot McGroot** » Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:39 pm

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/256989/NBA-Estimates-20-21-Salary-Cap-At-$115M-Luxury-Tax-At-$139M

Salary cap is now projected to be at $115m rather than $116m for next season, with a resulting luxury tax at $139m instead of almost $141m. Now, how does this affect the Pacers?

The Pacers have 11 guaranteed contracts for next season as follows:
Oladipo - $21m
Brogdon - $20.7m
Myles Turner - $18m
Sabonis - $18.5m
Warren - $11.75m
Lamb - $10.5m
McDermott- $7.333m
Leaf - $4.3m
Bitadze - $2.96m
AHoliday - $2.3m
Sumner - $2.16m
TJ McConnell - $1m guaranteed until 6/30/20, total of $3.5m contract for the whole season

As you see McConnell has a small guarantee, but I think we can all agree he's worth keeping around for only an extra $2.5m, which would put us at 12 players at a total owed of $125.3m. That leaves us with almost $14m under the luxury tax, which we are very unlikely to go over, and only Justin Holiday, Alize Johnson (restricted), and Jakarr Sampson as free agents. We would have non-bird rights on Holiday and Sampson, allowing us to offer up to a 120% raise (Holiday at $5.72m and Sampson at $1.94m) without touching any other exceptions. We also will have early bird rights on Alize, allowing us to offer up to 175% of his previous salary (around $2.5m) or up to the "estimated average salary in the NBA" (around $10m). We also will have the availability of our own 2nd round pick this summer, which would have a minimum salary of around $900k.

For 2020, early projections of the Non-Taxpayer MLE are $9.9m, so using it would leave us at around $4m under the tax. The bi-annual exception (can be used only every other year at most) is projected around $3.9m.

As you can see, we have the absolute ability to keep the entire roster around for next season, if we so choose. We also have the ability to use essentially both the full non-taxpayer MLE and the BAE, if we were to choose. In theory, if we could convince Justin Holiday to re-sign using non-bird rights, we could also retain the ability to use the full MLE on the market to build on the bench, but would have to then cut some salary somewhere on the roster to avoid the tax. It appears the TJ Leaf contract may be the salary we could dump to avoid the luxury tax in such a scenario.

Tom White · Post #2 » by **Tom White** » Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:58 pm

Nice work in putting all that info together. I agree that if a current player is to be jettisoned, it would likely be Leaf.

Wizop · Post #3 » by **Wizop** » Sat Feb 1, 2020 12:56 pm

Does keeping Alize help more than an empty 15th roster spot?

How expensive a player could Leaf legally be traded for without us incurring tax if another team needed to shed salary?

Sent from my phone.

Post #4 » by **Scoot McGroot** » Sat Feb 1, 2020 2:06 pm

Wizop wrote:Does keeping Alize help more than an empty 15th roster spot?

How expensive a player could Leaf legally be traded for without us incurring tax if another team needed to shed salary?

Sent from my phone.

This year? Leaf could be traded straight up for $5.023m in salary, so he can clear up to $2.21m in salary commitments himself. At this moment, the Warriors are $6m over the tax, Houston is $7.3m over, Miami is almost $4m over, OKC is $750k over, and Portland is almost $7.4m over the tax line.

As for Alize, good question. All depends on how we see him project going forwards. Seems like he can rebound and hit the 3 in the GLeague. Really wish he could develop in the Dan Burke mold to defending the 4 and 3 spots.

Wizop · Post #5 » by **Wizop** » Sat Feb 1, 2020 2:55 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:This year? Leaf could be traded straight up for $5.023m in salary, so he can clear up to $2.21m in salary commitments himself.

I looked at the teams you mention being over and there just aren't many contracts in the 4 to 5 million dollar range. few of those guys look like ones their teams would be ready to give up on.

Post #6 » by **Scoot McGroot** » Sat Feb 1, 2020 3:18 pm

Wizop wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:This year? Leaf could be traded straight up for $5.023m in salary, so he can clear up to $2.21m in salary commitments himself.

I looked at the teams you mention being over and there just aren't many contracts in the 4 to 5 million dollar range. few of those guys look like ones their teams would be ready to give up on.

Agreed. Portland would probably like to move Hood, but he's got another year on his player option he's likely to exercise with his injury. Otherwise, OKC might be willing to move Roberson, but he makes over $10m, so it'd have to be larger. Everyone else really would have to move 2 or even 3 guys in order to clear some salary.