Image

Is it too early to look at the lottery?

Moderators: pacers33granger, Grang33r, pacerfan, boomershadow, Jake0890

8305
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,495
And1: 639
Joined: Jun 11, 2009
     

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#21 » by 8305 » Sat Nov 8, 2025 12:26 pm

There are three players in this draft who grade similar to Cooper Flag (per Sam Veceine). Odds for a lottery team are 3 times stronger than last year to get a franchise changing player. That seems like a big deal. Don’t know that the position matters? Just get one of the top three. If current circumstances persist another week or so Pacers could be buried.
JMaster5K
Rookie
Posts: 1,236
And1: 388
Joined: Jan 16, 2023
   

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#22 » by JMaster5K » Sat Nov 8, 2025 7:17 pm

8305 wrote:There are three players in this draft who grade similar to Cooper Flag (per Sam Veceine). Odds for a lottery team are 3 times stronger than last year to get a franchise changing player. That seems like a big deal. Don’t know that the position matters? Just get one of the top three. If current circumstances persist another week or so Pacers could be buried.


Yeah,... there are 3 that grade similar to Flagg right now,... with as many as 7 more that could be in that same neighborhood, or close enough to it to become franchise players. You are right,... IF we are going to have an gap year,... this is the year to do it! :D
MrGoat
Head Coach
Posts: 6,324
And1: 8,116
Joined: Aug 14, 2019
 

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#23 » by MrGoat » Sun Nov 9, 2025 7:57 am

This is clearly the year to do it, especially in our current situation
Free Luigi
basketballwacko2
RealGM
Posts: 22,180
And1: 4,378
Joined: May 11, 2002
Location: Just outside of No where.
     

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#24 » by basketballwacko2 » Sun Nov 9, 2025 6:15 pm

8305 wrote:There are three players in this draft who grade similar to Cooper Flag (per Sam Veceine). Odds for a lottery team are 3 times stronger than last year to get a franchise changing player. That seems like a big deal. Don’t know that the position matters? Just get one of the top three. If current circumstances persist another week or so Pacers could be buried.


Yep this team is a wreck compared to what they were last season. The injury bug is biting deep. Got Nembhard back last night and lost again.

Looks like time to rebuild on the fly again, let's say it's Jan 10th and we are 6-30 with the trade deadline coming up? Do you trade out of Siakam and get a big package? Maybe even trade some other guys and try to get 2 picks in the stacked draft of 2026?

Is it time for a Tank-O-Rama! :lol:

Image
User avatar
Wizop
RealGM
Posts: 18,563
And1: 5,196
Joined: Jun 15, 2003
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Contact:
   

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#25 » by Wizop » Sun Nov 9, 2025 6:20 pm

No reason to trade Siakam. Haliburton, Mathurin, and Obi will eventually return.
Please edit long quotes to only show what puts your new message into context.
basketballwacko2
RealGM
Posts: 22,180
And1: 4,378
Joined: May 11, 2002
Location: Just outside of No where.
     

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#26 » by basketballwacko2 » Sun Nov 9, 2025 6:47 pm

Great teams are made when adversity strikes.

Remember when the Pacers traded Sabonis for Haliburton? Everybody was getting hurt, Turner was out for the season, the pacers trade LeVert for Rickie Rubio and draft picks, became Nembhard and Shepherd. They got the 6th pick that year and got Mathurin.

This could be the opportunity to reload again. I'd at least consider trade packages for Siakam, which teams might or could offer enough to get him?
basketballwacko2
RealGM
Posts: 22,180
And1: 4,378
Joined: May 11, 2002
Location: Just outside of No where.
     

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#27 » by basketballwacko2 » Sun Nov 9, 2025 6:48 pm

Wizop wrote:No reason to trade Siakam. Haliburton, Mathurin, and Obi will eventually return.



Haliburton is out for the season and it looks like Obi is probably out for the season as well. IDK what Mathurin's prognosis is or TJ?
User avatar
Wizop
RealGM
Posts: 18,563
And1: 5,196
Joined: Jun 15, 2003
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Contact:
   

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#28 » by Wizop » Sun Nov 9, 2025 6:58 pm

I can see trading Mathurin but not Siakam. Not sure who I'd cut for a lottery pick.
Please edit long quotes to only show what puts your new message into context.
Pacers Forever
Analyst
Posts: 3,160
And1: 1,216
Joined: Nov 21, 2020
     

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#29 » by Pacers Forever » Sun Nov 9, 2025 10:21 pm

I just can’t trade Siakam because this team needs a veteran presence other than TJ. Also Siakam has been our most consistent scorer besides Tyrese.

With our glut of young talent they really can’t rely on anyone to be a consistent scorer except Pascal and Tyrese. Nesmith, Mathurin, and Toppin you can only depend upon to be support for Tyrese and Pascal. Mathurin is probably the closest to becoming a consistent 20+ a night scorer.

Besides injuries our current biggest concern is that they have to find a stater at the 5 position for next season. Jackson, Huff, and Bradley at this point are struggling to even look like worthy backup 5 options. I’m not sure if any team will give up on a quality 5 by the trade deadline or if the draft will have a good player available at the 5 but to me that’s the priority if they want to get back to the playoffs.

I hate to say it but right now losing Myles has created a hole in the starting 5. I still think it was the right move to not overpay him and go into the tax. This is our gap season and now they have to find a 5 for next season that can plug the 5 hole.
basketballwacko2
RealGM
Posts: 22,180
And1: 4,378
Joined: May 11, 2002
Location: Just outside of No where.
     

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#30 » by basketballwacko2 » Mon Nov 10, 2025 2:13 am

Pacers Forever wrote:I just can’t trade Siakam because this team needs a veteran presence other than TJ. Also Siakam has been our most consistent scorer besides Tyrese.

With our glut of young talent they really can’t rely on anyone to be a consistent scorer except Pascal and Tyrese. Nesmith, Mathurin, and Toppin you can only depend upon to be support for Tyrese and Pascal. Mathurin is probably the closest to becoming a consistent 20+ a night scorer.

Besides injuries our current biggest concern is that they have to find a stater at the 5 position for next season. Jackson, Huff, and Bradley at this point are struggling to even look like worthy backup 5 options. I’m not sure if any team will give up on a quality 5 by the trade deadline or if the draft will have a good player available at the 5 but to me that’s the priority if they want to get back to the playoffs.

I hate to say it but right now losing Myles has created a hole in the starting 5. I still think it was the right move to not overpay him and go into the tax. This is our gap season and now they have to find a 5 for next season that can plug the 5 hole.


This team might win 20 games the way it's going!
basketballwacko2
RealGM
Posts: 22,180
And1: 4,378
Joined: May 11, 2002
Location: Just outside of No where.
     

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#31 » by basketballwacko2 » Mon Nov 10, 2025 2:23 am

Pacers Forever wrote:I just can’t trade Siakam because this team needs a veteran presence other than TJ. Also Siakam has been our most consistent scorer besides Tyrese.

With our glut of young talent they really can’t rely on anyone to be a consistent scorer except Pascal and Tyrese. Nesmith, Mathurin, and Toppin you can only depend upon to be support for Tyrese and Pascal. Mathurin is probably the closest to becoming a consistent 20+ a night scorer.

Besides injuries our current biggest concern is that they have to find a stater at the 5 position for next season. Jackson, Huff, and Bradley at this point are struggling to even look like worthy backup 5 options. I’m not sure if any team will give up on a quality 5 by the trade deadline or if the draft will have a good player available at the 5 but to me that’s the priority if they want to get back to the playoffs.

I hate to say it but right now losing Myles has created a hole in the starting 5. I still think it was the right move to not overpay him and go into the tax. This is our gap season and now they have to find a 5 for next season that can plug the 5 hole.



Trying to stay out of the "Tax" when you have 2 guys making $50 million or more per year is gonna be tough. Try to find a starting quality center and fit him into this teams salary structure.

The Pacers need to operate outside the tax unless they are going to the finals. Siakam will be 32 years old on April 2nd 2026. His value may never be higher than now there should be 4-5 teams that would want him. I'd think they could get a package as good as what Utah got out of Gobert at the deadline.
basketballwacko2
RealGM
Posts: 22,180
And1: 4,378
Joined: May 11, 2002
Location: Just outside of No where.
     

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#32 » by basketballwacko2 » Mon Nov 10, 2025 2:29 am

The Pacers held PG too long, did the same thing years ago with JO. They seem to be averse to risk. And hold onto guys too long.
ReggiesKnicks
Analyst
Posts: 3,439
And1: 2,935
Joined: Jan 25, 2025
   

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#33 » by ReggiesKnicks » Mon Nov 10, 2025 4:24 pm

basketballwacko2 wrote:The Pacers held PG too long, did the same thing years ago with JO. They seem to be averse to risk. And hold onto guys too long.


We do that, but I hope we are willing to sell Siakam if the price is right. I would need a team that is actively looking to add a piece for a title run and pay a premium price.
User avatar
Wizop
RealGM
Posts: 18,563
And1: 5,196
Joined: Jun 15, 2003
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Contact:
   

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#34 » by Wizop » Mon Nov 10, 2025 4:39 pm

ReggiesKnicks wrote:
basketballwacko2 wrote:The Pacers held PG too long, did the same thing years ago with JO. They seem to be averse to risk. And hold onto guys too long.


We do that, but I hope we are willing to sell Siakam if the price is right. I would need a team that is actively looking to add a piece for a title run and pay a premium price.


Do you not think we hope to make a title run in 2026-2027? How does trading Pascal further that hope?
Please edit long quotes to only show what puts your new message into context.
ReggiesKnicks
Analyst
Posts: 3,439
And1: 2,935
Joined: Jan 25, 2025
   

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#35 » by ReggiesKnicks » Mon Nov 10, 2025 4:59 pm

Wizop wrote:
ReggiesKnicks wrote:
basketballwacko2 wrote:The Pacers held PG too long, did the same thing years ago with JO. They seem to be averse to risk. And hold onto guys too long.


We do that, but I hope we are willing to sell Siakam if the price is right. I would need a team that is actively looking to add a piece for a title run and pay a premium price.


Do you not think we hope to make a title run in 2026-2027? How does trading Pascal further that hope?


No. I think it will take until 2027-2028 to return to his full self. At that point, I can't trust Pascal to be Pascal and would rather move on, which makes the value aspect the highest today.

I would shop Siakam but not sell to the highest offer unless it blew me out of the water.
basketballwacko2
RealGM
Posts: 22,180
And1: 4,378
Joined: May 11, 2002
Location: Just outside of No where.
     

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#36 » by basketballwacko2 » Tue Nov 11, 2025 2:06 am

ReggiesKnicks wrote:
basketballwacko2 wrote:The Pacers held PG too long, did the same thing years ago with JO. They seem to be averse to risk. And hold onto guys too long.


We do that, but I hope we are willing to sell Siakam if the price is right. I would need a team that is actively looking to add a piece for a title run and pay a premium price.


I had thought the Clippers and the Spurs might be contenders for Siakam, matching salary is tough and the Clips have no picks to trade.
basketballwacko2
RealGM
Posts: 22,180
And1: 4,378
Joined: May 11, 2002
Location: Just outside of No where.
     

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#37 » by basketballwacko2 » Tue Nov 11, 2025 2:11 am

Wizop wrote:
ReggiesKnicks wrote:
basketballwacko2 wrote:The Pacers held PG too long, did the same thing years ago with JO. They seem to be averse to risk. And hold onto guys too long.


We do that, but I hope we are willing to sell Siakam if the price is right. I would need a team that is actively looking to add a piece for a title run and pay a premium price.


Do you not think we hope to make a title run in 2026-2027? How does trading Pascal further that hope?


I don't think the Pacers will make such a run in 2026-27, with no center and Tyrese coming off his Achilles injury it will take time to get him at full speed. Unless they get lucky and find a center for cheap money and or someone really takes a leap. I don't them being good enough to beat the Knicks or Cleveland, but that's a long time off and all kind of things can happen in 2 seasons.
Pacers Forever
Analyst
Posts: 3,160
And1: 1,216
Joined: Nov 21, 2020
     

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#38 » by Pacers Forever » Wed Nov 12, 2025 8:13 am

I saw the first quarter of the Pacers game vs Utah and our power went out and surged in a way that fried my internet providers modem saving me from seeing the 3 quarter massacre yet to come.

So I was thinking about why the Pacers are 1-10 when they only lost an easily replaceable Turner.


Turner’s 2024-25 avg. points per game were 15.6

This season 5 position
Isiah Jackson 2025 avg. points per game are 7.9
Jay Huff and puff 2025 avg. points per game 5.7
2025 Tony Bradley is a +0.8 better points per game

So that’s 14.4 points combined to Myles 15.6 equaling - 1.2 less points at the 5. That’s manageable although it’s coming from 2 players.


Regardless of the 5 position scoring deficiency the real reason we’ve gone from a top solid team to 1-10 is injuries to date.

Mathurin 16.1
Obi 10.5
TJ 9.1
So that’s 35.7 points not being replaced by our roster not named Siakam or Nesmith.

Walker 11.1
Sheppard 7.2
J Robinson 5.2
Q Jax 11.9 <—injured
Furphy 2.7 <—-injured
Ray J 6.0 <—-currently DNP
T. Peter 1.7<—currently DNP
Kam Jones 0.0 <—-injured
TJ 0.0 <—-injured until tonight

No wonder the Pacers are getting smoked nightly. There’s no making up 35.7 points a game with the talent the Pacers have left available to play including recent signings. As hard as the coaching tries you also can’t manufacture compatibility between players who have played together very little. Even plugging Isiah Jax, Walker, and Sheppard into the lineup looks haphazard compared to the smooth play we’ve become accustomed to.

Maybe once Mathurin plus Quenton Jax are back and TJ is up to speed the Pacers can start winning some games. I’m not holding my breath though that this 2025-26 squad can mesh to turn things around.
User avatar
Wizop
RealGM
Posts: 18,563
And1: 5,196
Joined: Jun 15, 2003
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Contact:
   

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#39 » by Wizop » Thu Nov 13, 2025 7:08 pm

BYU plays UConn Saturday night on Fox. I've set it to record so I can watch the BTU forward expected to go in the top 3.
Please edit long quotes to only show what puts your new message into context.
basketballwacko2
RealGM
Posts: 22,180
And1: 4,378
Joined: May 11, 2002
Location: Just outside of No where.
     

Re: Is it too early to look at the lottery? 

Post#40 » by basketballwacko2 » Fri Nov 14, 2025 1:16 am

Pacers Forever wrote:I saw the first quarter of the Pacers game vs Utah and our power went out and surged in a way that fried my internet providers modem saving me from seeing the 3 quarter massacre yet to come.

So I was thinking about why the Pacers are 1-10 when they only lost an easily replaceable Turner.


Turner’s 2024-25 avg. points per game were 15.6

This season 5 position
Isiah Jackson 2025 avg. points per game are 7.9
Jay Huff and puff 2025 avg. points per game 5.7
2025 Tony Bradley is a +0.8 better points per game

So that’s 14.4 points combined to Myles 15.6 equaling - 1.2 less points at the 5. That’s manageable although it’s coming from 2 players.


Regardless of the 5 position scoring deficiency the real reason we’ve gone from a top solid team to 1-10 is injuries to date.

Mathurin 16.1
Obi 10.5
TJ 9.1
So that’s 35.7 points not being replaced by our roster not named Siakam or Nesmith.

Walker 11.1
Sheppard 7.2
J Robinson 5.2
Q Jax 11.9 <—injured
Furphy 2.7 <—-injured
Ray J 6.0 <—-currently DNP
T. Peter 1.7<—currently DNP
Kam Jones 0.0 <—-injured
TJ 0.0 <—-injured until tonight

No wonder the Pacers are getting smoked nightly. There’s no making up 35.7 points a game with the talent the Pacers have left available to play including recent signings. As hard as the coaching tries you also can’t manufacture compatibility between players who have played together very little. Even plugging Isiah Jax, Walker, and Sheppard into the lineup looks haphazard compared to the smooth play we’ve become accustomed to.

Maybe once Mathurin plus Quenton Jax are back and TJ is up to speed the Pacers can start winning some games. I’m not holding my breath though that this 2025-26 squad can mesh to turn things around.


So how is Turner's skill set "easy" to replace? He's a good shooter from 3 pt range, good defender and good shot blocker. I can't think of another player who blocks two shots a game and shoots 36% from 3 and is a good over all defender.

Return to Indiana Pacers