Is it too early to look at the lottery?

[JMaster5K]

I see the Mathurin problem as position not dollars so we agree there. Nesmith can't be traded until the summer because he signed an extension so that's not a way to open up the SF at the deadline. Besides I see several really big SFs in the top 6 of the draft.

We just won back to back with Huf playing more. Siakam hit the game winner tonight. Stay tuned

So a question for you and JMaster5K if you're trading Mathurin what do you want for him? And who do you think the potential trading partners are?

I haven't been watching our games this year, let alone other teams' games - but the trading partners for Mathurin would be the teams that have a need for a starting SG. Western Conference teams would be preferred. The target does not have to be a player that helps us win this year.

Wacko,... you asked a very good question. Not sure there is a 'good' answer at the moment,... He's had a couple of 'not as good' games since he came back,... but he's been getting back into his groove. If he can put together a string of games that keeps his season PPG 25+, maintain his efficiency, keep getting to the line, & return to playing league average defense. All of which, he has already done this season,... including doing all of those things together in his first 2 games.

If he shows that over the a string of say a dozen games? His work-ethic is respected on & beyond the team. His desire to be great is clear.

On a team where he fits the style of play, has a need for scoring, fits the coaching, IMO, he could be a several time all-star? Where would he fit?... Charlotte - but I wouldn't do that to him? Cleveland? Denver? Memphis - again, wouldn't do that to him? Miami? Philly? Sac-town, Utah? all would be schematic fits, but that's only with how they play now?...

What would I want? if he does make that string of games above? at least a lottery pick this year, another first, salary matching that includes someone we like? Think that is most likely in a multi-team where he might even be the catalyst to drawing more value?

Thinking out loud in all of this,... but believe he is legitimately a guy you can build a team around, as the primary scorer, that can become a contender?...

[Wizop]

my early top 5 ignoring guards: Dybantsa, Boozer, Wilson, Ament, and Cenac.

[JMaster5K]

my early top 5 ignoring guards: Dybantsa, Boozer, Wilson, Ament, and Cenac.

I like that list.

I would throw in Peterson,... simply because he is a Luka, or Wemby level talent, and capable of playing 1-3 in our scheme. Could be 'that guy' that gives us Nesmith off the bench & is capable of defending 1-4. He is currently listed at 6'6",... but the last time he was measured was at the Adidas Eurocamp in June 2024,... so just turned 17, 6'5 1/2" barefoot, 6'10 3/4" wingspan, with an 8'7 1/4" standing reach, which would make him at 17, the same size as Nesmith, now. Did read an interview with him where he admitted that he was still growing,.. LOL. I know he is being touted as a 'lead guard' or 'point guard', but the scouts I've read that have seen him play say he could be that, if you need it, but he is just as comfortable as a scorer, secondary ball handler & initiator. He doesn't have to have the ball in his hands to be effective.

we aren't looking for a 4, unless we trade Pascal,... but as a strong-wing, Peat is also looking good (for later in the lottery)?

Out of the guys you mentioned,... who do you like the most?

[Wizop]

Out of the guys you mentioned,... who do you like the most?

At this point, AJ unless Peterson measures taller than I've seen published. I see Boozer as a 4 so I have him lower but if he's the only tier one player still on the board I'm running up the card. Cenac is the 5 but I think the 3's are better so I wouldn't reach for a center.

[basketballwacko2]

One big issue that I've had when looking at trades is most of the "Usual" suspects as trade partners some who are contenders this year don't have picks they can trade or young players they could trade to us for Mathurin. The big problem I'm having with trading Siakam is matching salary and finding a team that has picks to off set the lack of talent they will be sending back.

One that I look at for Siakam is OKC or Houston. IDK if either of those teams would be willing to send fair value to us for him, but the big problem is the roster spots in some kind of 4 for 1 or 4 for 2 deal.

With the talent at the top of this draft and our horrendous start we're 1/4 of the way through the season and have 4 wins! In a month when we are 8 and 30, will it be time to throw in the towel on this season and tank it for a high pick. IF they could get a 2nd pick in the top 10 it might back sense to make a risky trade.

[Wizop]

The two teams likely to be in the top 10 but also in win now mode are Atlanta and OKC. Both own picks they received in trades. OKC has no need for better players so Atlanta but why would they trade out of the lottery?

[JMaster5K]

The two teams likely to be in the top 10 but also in win now mode are Atlanta and OKC. Both own picks they received in trades. OKC has no need for better players so Atlanta but why would they trade out of the lottery?

We are thinking alike. Atlanta is the team I'm watching.

They are good enough to make the playoffs outright, but probably not good enough to get to the ECF or win a championship. The things that will keep them from winning in the playoffs?.... post scoring/passing; Having a legit 'I'll carry you to a win player'; leadership & experience.

Stylistically, they are best fit for Pascal outside a fully healthy Pacers team. Quin Snyder is a top-tier coach who can get the best out of his players. Trae is an excellent P&R ball handler, IMO 2nd to Tyrese in the league. Porzingis is ok as a roller, but he is only a little better than average in the P&R. The most efficient play in the league over the last 2 years has been Tyrese to Pascal P&R (per CC). Trae should be able to have very similar success. It would also free Porzingis to play his preferred style on offense, which is 5 out, while still providing that big rim-protector next to Pascal.

Jalen Johnson has been playing just below all-star level so far this year. But, he's essentially a face-up, going to the basket forward. He doesn't give you the P&R game, nor the mid-post passing that Pascal does. He doesn't open the floor the way a Pascal would on this ATL team. ATL's ceiling is substantially higher with Pascal than with Jalen. With Dyson filling the Drew role on defense, ATL seems to have the right mix of talent & skills to maximize Pascal & for Pascal to maximize the Hawks.

They have NOP's pick in this draft, another late first, & most of their future 1's are tradable. They do have the talent & salaries to make a Pascal deal possible without draining all their depth & talent, and provide real value to the Pacers.

Why would they trade out of the lottery?... because they have a chance to win this year. A lottery pick won't help them win this year. Because Trae is 27, Kristaps is 30, Pascal is 31. Their other key rotation players are in the mid 20's, with Risacher, Daniels, & Newel all under 22.

They are going to have a bit of a logjam like we had pre-Pascal going into next season? 2 more draft picks, even a lottery pick in a great draft, aren't going to help with the logjam & the reduced opportunity for a rookies to play. I don't think the Hawks want to become the Kings of the east, loaded with lottery picks, but not really developing any of them? This would likely set them up to be a real contender for the next sorta 3 or 4 years, which would likely close the book on the Pascal, Trae, Kristaps years & build a solid foundation for the next gen?

Why would we do it?.... Tyrese is 25,... Drew 26, Aaron 26, Benn 23, Ben 24, Jarace 22,... OB1 & Huff are the 'old men' in the primary rotation at 27. IF,... big IF, we wanted to do this, then IMO we would be looking to move Jarace & Benn for value, to open up 3 roster spots & playing time, to get 'immediate impact' youngsters (that should still be a year away from really contributing, hence the " "'s). We would be looking at being a competitive playoff team in 26-27 when Tyrese should really be healthy, and a contender for several years beyond. We could do it without moving any of our remaining starters from last year Tyrese, Drew, & Aaron? As you said, the strength of this draft is forwards.

Just thinking out loud,... (thanks for listening) don't really expect this to happen, but to me IF we decide that moving Pascal is the best thing for our team & the best thing for Pascal, this is the scenario that makes the most sense to me for all the parties?

[JMaster5K]

The two teams likely to be in the top 10 but also in win now mode are Atlanta and OKC. Both own picks they received in trades. OKC has no need for better players so Atlanta but why would they trade out of the lottery?

We are thinking alike. Atlanta is the team I'm watching.

& to answer Wacko's question from a couple of days ago, as well.

They are good enough to make the playoffs outright, but probably not good enough to get to the ECF or win a championship. The things that will keep them from winning in the playoffs?.... post scoring/passing; Having a legit 'I'll carry you to a win player'; leadership & experience.

Stylistically, they are best fit for Pascal outside a fully healthy Pacers team. Quin Snyder is a top-tier coach who can get the best out of his players. Trae is an excellent P&R ball handler, IMO 2nd to Tyrese in the league. Porzingis is ok as a roller, but he is only a little better than average in the P&R. The most efficient play in the league over the last 2 years has been Tyrese to Pascal P&R (per CC). Trae should be able to have very similar success. It would also free Porzingis to play his preferred style on offense, which is 5 out, while still providing that big rim-protector next to Pascal.

Jalen Johnson has been playing just below all-star level so far this year. But, he's essentially a face-up, going to the basket forward. He doesn't give you the P&R game, nor the mid-post passing that Pascal does. He doesn't open the floor the way a Pascal would on this ATL team. ATL's ceiling is substantially higher with Pascal than with Jalen. With Dyson filling the Drew role on defense, ATL seems to have the right mix of talent & skills to maximize Pascal & for Pascal to maximize the Hawks.

They have NOP's pick in this draft, another late first, & most of their future 1's are tradable. They do have the talent & salaries to make a Pascal deal possible without draining all their depth & talent, and provide real value to the Pacers.

Why would they trade out of the lottery?... because they have a chance to win this year. A lottery pick won't help them win this year. Because Trae is 27, Kristaps is 30, Pascal is 31. Their other key rotation players are in the mid 20's, with Risacher, Daniels, & Newel all under 22.

They are going to have a bit of a logjam like we had pre-Pascal going into next season? 2 more draft picks, even a lottery pick in a great draft, aren't going to help with the logjam & the reduced opportunity for a rookies to play. I don't think the Hawks want to become the Kings of the east, loaded with lottery picks, but not really developing any of them? This would likely set them up to be a real contender for the next sorta 3 or 4 years, which would likely close the book on the Pascal, Trae, Kristaps years & build a solid foundation for the next gen?

Why would we do it?.... Tyrese is 25,... Drew 26, Aaron 26, Benn 23, Ben 24, Jarace 22,... OB1 & Huff are the 'old men' in the primary rotation at 27. IF,... big IF, we wanted to do this, then IMO we would be looking to move Jarace & Benn for value, to open up 3 roster spots & playing time, to get 'immediate impact' youngsters (that should still be a year away from really contributing, hence the " "'s). We would be looking at being a competitive playoff team in 26-27 when Tyrese should really be healthy, and a contender for several years beyond. We could do it without moving any of our remaining starters from last year Tyrese, Drew, & Aaron? As you said, the strength of this draft is forwards.

Just thinking out loud,... (thanks for listening) don't really expect this to happen, but to me IF we decide that moving Pascal is the best thing for our team & the best thing for Pascal, this is the scenario that makes the most sense to me for all the parties?

[Wizop]

Just thinking out loud,... (thanks for listening) don't really expect this to happen, but to me IF we decide that moving Pascal is the best thing for our team & the best thing for Pascal, this is the scenario that makes the most sense to me for all the parties?

I'm against trading Pascal - unless he asks to be traded to a contender.

[Scoot McGroot]

I really doubt Atlanta would be willing to trade that NOP 1st this year, for most anything. Especially not while NO is still so clearly in a state of major dysfunction.

BUT!

I do think they'd be willing to move guys like Zaccharie Risacher and/or Asa Newell? Does any of their future draft pick value interest you? I doubt they trade their "lesser of 2027 NOP/Mil 1st" in case Mil trades Giannis, but they can trade their 2029/2031 1sts....

And they can pretty easily match salary with Porzingis. They've got Okongwu really playing well in their lineup, and Jalen Johnson is their star now. I could see them valuing Siakam, but would really come down to whether they're comfortable playing Johnson solely at the 3, or if they prefer him and Okongwu at the 4/5?

[Wizop]

I really doubt Atlanta would be willing to trade that NOP 1st this year, for most anything. Especially not while NO is still so clearly in a state of major dysfunction.

agree, I don't think another top 10 pick is a reasonable goal, but they might trade their own pick. we'd probably have to waive Kam and Tony to make room for two picks though.

I do think they'd be willing to move guys like Zaccharie Risacher

Mathurin for Risacher? would either side expect draft capital too?

[Scoot McGroot]

I really doubt Atlanta would be willing to trade that NOP 1st this year, for most anything. Especially not while NO is still so clearly in a state of major dysfunction.

agree, I don't think another top 10 pick is a reasonable goal, but they might trade their own pick. we'd probably have to waive Kam and Tony to make room for two picks though.

I do think they'd be willing to move guys like Zaccharie Risacher

Mathurin for Risacher? would either side expect draft capital too?

The

I really doubt Atlanta would be willing to trade that NOP 1st this year, for most anything. Especially not while NO is still so clearly in a state of major dysfunction.

agree, I don't think another top 10 pick is a reasonable goal, but they might trade their own pick. we'd probably have to waive Kam and Tony to make room for two picks though.

I do think they'd be willing to move guys like Zaccharie Risacher

Mathurin for Risacher? would either side expect draft capital too?

Oh, no. They don’t have a role or need for Mathurin. Not with Trae, NAW, Daniels, etc.


You’d have to see Risacher as the centerpiece to a Siakam trade. Pascal is the only real trade piece Indy could send to get Zac.

[basketballwacko2]

The two teams likely to be in the top 10 but also in win now mode are Atlanta and OKC. Both own picks they received in trades. OKC has no need for better players so Atlanta but why would they trade out of the lottery?

I agree with you on Atlanta they have been willing to make trades even sending out guys like DeAndre Hunter who they drafted with high picks.


On OKC they have to be the favorite to repeat, but my thought was if they don't mind paying tax which right now they are set to be $50 million over the tax next season as of right now they have $246 million committed to their current players.

IF they were to acquire a vet like Siakam and send out some of the guys they are gonna need to resign Hartenstein, the lesser J. Williams, Dieng and 3 of the draft pick stash they have they could be stacked in their starting line up.

SGA pg
Dort sg
Jalen Williams SF
Pascal PF
Chet center

They'd still have a deep bench and lots of draft picks to add to the bench. IK if the Thunder would do something like that but I'd explore it.

[Wizop]

if I'm OKC, I'm thinking it ain't broke so I'm not going to fix it.

[basketballwacko2]

Looking at Atlanta, I'd love to get J. Johnson if I was sending them Siakam. The money doesn't match so they need to add someone like Luke Kennard and Vit Krejci. Makes the money match. Kennard is on a 1 year deal and can't be traded till Dec 14th. Would the Hawks add the New Orleans pick in 2026? They also have a 2027 pick which is the lesser of the Pels, and Bucks. IF I could get Johnson, Krejci, and Kennard plus the 2026 Pels, and the 27 pick. I'd do it, the Hawks would likely want to protect the 2026 pick for say top 4?

I doubt they would do that but I'd explore it.

[basketballwacko2]

if I'm OKC, I'm thinking it ain't broke so I'm not going to fix it.

That's probably right.

[basketballwacko2]

I'd also say that I don't see Atlanta wanting to make a move for Mathurin not that he's not valuable but that they don't need him.

[JMaster5K]

I really doubt Atlanta would be willing to trade that NOP 1st this year, for most anything. Especially not while NO is still so clearly in a state of major dysfunction.

ATL wouldn't trade that pick for Giannis? for Shai? for Jokic? for Edwards? If there was a player that could give them an 80%, 90% chance to get to the ECF, this year, before the draft & make you a contender for a couple of years,... you don't trade that pick? Even if that pick leads to a generational talent, they likely need a year or two to be ready & fit into your team? That doesn't put you into contention now,... or next year,... when the largest portion of your key rotation is in their prime, and you are already having a season that could put you in position to make that jump?

I think you are right,... that they highly value that pick & it would take something huge to get it on the table, but the goal for all the team is winning a championship. If there was something that made that very, very likely,... I think they would at least have to listen?

[Scoot McGroot]

I really doubt Atlanta would be willing to trade that NOP 1st this year, for most anything. Especially not while NO is still so clearly in a state of major dysfunction.

ATL wouldn't trade that pick for Giannis? for Shai? for Jokic? for Edwards? If there was a player that could give them an 80%, 90% chance to get to the ECF, this year, before the draft & make you a contender for a couple of years,... you don't trade that pick? Even if that pick leads to a generational talent, they likely need a year or two to be ready & fit into your team? That doesn't put you into contention now,... or next year,... when the largest portion of your key rotation is in their prime, and you are already having a season that could put you in position to make that jump?

I think you are right,... that they highly value that pick & it would take something huge to get it on the table, but the goal for all the team is winning a championship. If there was something that made that very, very likely,... I think they would at least have to listen?

I specifically said “most anything”


Would they trade it for a first team all nba player/mvp player? Sure. Most likely. But Pascal Siakam absolutely isn’t in that class, right? Fair to say he’s Nowhere close?

But no. I don’t think they trade they pick for a chance at a second round playoff run. I think they don’t have enough of a solid long term base of keepers to do so. They’re not sure they’re extending Trae. Daniels is nice, but he’s showing a bit more limited offensively. Jalen Johnson is their only main guy, and he’s their new building block. He’s not being moved for Siakam, either.

But if they could add one of Peterson, Boozer, or Dybantsa to olay long term with Johnson? Well, then you feel better about keeping Trae, and you feel more comfortable long term with Okongwu/Daniels, etc.

[JMaster5K]

if I'm OKC, I'm thinking it ain't broke so I'm not going to fix it.

I think that OKC might be willing to deal with 1 or 2 of the perennial early lottery teams to kick their picks down the road a bit? Yeah, they have 2 likely lottery picks this year & will probably use at least 1 of them.

But they already have the best team in the league, stable & deep rotation,… with 4 first rounders this year? & potentially 4 more next year? (In what is forecast as a bad draft?)

I don’t think they will have roster slots for everyone?