RealGM

Posted this on the general board, wanted to spur some thoughts here.

What are the real keys to making the playoffs for this team? I don't mean "Granger scoring 29 a game" or "Collison being a 20/10 PG" etc. I mean... What is sort of up in the air? Could go either way? If the coin lands heads, we make it, tails, we don't?

Here's my thoughts:

Last year, I essentially predicted that our playoff hopes would ride on Hibbert, Rush, and Dunleavy. I was proven right. Dunleavy did not return close to the form he displayed in his first season w/ the pacers, Rush did not come close to the form he showed at the end of his rookie season, and Hibbert was fine, but didn't really take the big step.


Here's the keys for this year:

Stuff I think is fine: Granger and Collison. I expect both to be steadily good and play at their expected high level.

Stuff which could go either way, upon which the season hinges:

Tyler Hansbrough: We've got a huge gap there at PF now with Murphy gone. If Hansbrough is injured half the season, or plays poorly, we're screwed. Assuming no other PF comes along via trade, a massive amount of our success rests on Hansbrough becoming a consistent 25 mpg guy at PF, playing ~70 games.

Roy Hibbert: We've got big hopes this year. He's been working out, working with Walton, really working on his game. With Murphy gone, hopefully Hibbert's fouls go down and his rebounding goes up. If he can't stay on the floor because of fouls, his effectivness is limited.

Someone claiming the starting SG spot: Rush was lackluster in many ways last year. Dunleavy was returning from a long injury and never truly regained his form. Paul George is young and raw. But we just need one of these guys to STEP UP and earn the starting spot.


If we manage all 3 of those? I believe we make the playoffs. 2 out of 3? We still have a chance. 1 out of 3? Would have to have some miracle seasons from Granger and Collison. 0 out of 3? Not a chance of playoffs whatsoever.

I think everything rests on Hibbert. Without a starting PF he has to step up if we're going to make the playoffs. If he is MIP conversation this year then the playoffs are pretty much a lock.

I more or less agree with the keys you've outlined. If all 5 of the variables you mention evolve positively the Pacers will be this year's version of the Bucks.

For me Hansbrough is the wild card. This is still a soft team without what he brings. Plug him in for 25 minutes and have Foster available for the backup minutes at center and that tag goes away completely.

I'll be pretty surprised if HIbbert doesn't make another significant step forward. The guy's a hard worker and he has skills. Hansbrough next to him would also help.

As for shooting guard, Dunleavy can't help but be better. You might be able to say the same about Rush. Heck if all the other stuff falls into place you could put Dahntay Jones out there tell him to stay out of the way on offense and just play good defense. With all the options at this position I'd like to think something will work.

Without Hansbrough an 8 seed and a quick exit from the playoffs is probably the best case scenario. With him I think it could be pretty interesting.

A few keys for me:
1. Our play at PG - Collison, while a great talent (and believe me I love the fact he is a pacer) is still relatively unporven. He only had 1 year under his belt and played very well but how will he handle a full time starting role and the pressure of an entire team, hell the entire Pacer nation.
2. Hibbert's emergence - will he have the breakout year almost everyone expencts him to have?
3. Hansborough - Can he last 82 games and bring the energy, hustle and intensity the pacers so desperately need from our bigs?
4. How will our rookies fit in and develop? PG and Dance Stephenson (and even Rolle) have the ability to give us a great looking 2nd unit ready to push most teams for the entire 48mins and make a playoff run.

glasket wrote:Dance Stephenson

You know you owe me ten dollars for this. That's that copyright infringement stuff.

1. Hope some borderline playoff teams under achieve.

I think alot of it rests with Hibbert. With the lack of PF he really needs to anchor the D and rebound better than he has in the past.

In answer to the OP about SG I think Dunleavy can grab the starting spot - with him being healthy hopefully it will spur some competition for the position and Rush might be less poxy as a result?!