RealGM

After listening to Chris Broussard; Steven A. Smith; Skip Bayless; and a couple of other analytical reporters it seems that no one expects the Pacers or thinks Indy is a factor in the East. The general consensus as you may expect lists the top teams (contenders) in the East as Miami; Chicago; Boston; Brooklyn; and NYK. I just find it difficult to think that the team will decline into a 6th seed after being 3rd last season. Is it realistic to think the Pacers are or can be better than all of those teams except Miami? How good can the 2012/13 Pacers be?

All of those teams are bigger stories than the Pacers. The media is going to be covering Miami more than ever now that the Stern has tried to stir things up by handing them a title. Chicago is a great team with Rose. Boston, Brooklyn, and New York have superstar players in big cities. Indiana has a great team with no single star. It's not that they don't think we'll be up there, it's just that they don't want to lose the ratings they get while they're talking about the big city teams. It might actually offend me if I valued any of their opinions at all. Broussard is a fake wannabe journalist, Smith will say anything and everything that goes through his head claiming inside sources, and Skip Bayless is....well...Skip Bayless.

Chicago really is not a great team outside of Rose.

But Indiana doesn't ever get coverage because they're what's called a small market teams. Big market teamssuch as Miami or Boston will always get more attention even if we will be contending with them this season.

Top 2 seed or bust.

I don't see Rose playing much next year and Chicago has been breaking up their bench so I don't think they're going to be up there.

Boston was worse than us last year and they lost Ray Allen and added some other pieces but their core is a year older and I don't think they care about the regular season.

Atlanta blew their team up.

Orlando will probably have a good record early and then trade Howard and go in the crapper.

The Knicks added Marcus Camby, Jason Kidd and Ray Felton to a team that went 36-30 last year. I know that Amare missed time but the Knicks are so poorly constructed that they actually played better when guys were out. They went 29-26 with Melo (7-4 without him), and 22-25 with Amare (14-5 without him). They went 3-0 when both of them were out, 4-0 if you count the game Melo left early (only played 5 minutes). They played @MIN when Minny was still decent, @WAS and home against the Lakers in that little stretch. They beat Utah when Melo got knocked out. Anyway, I know their fans are excited about the star power, but they haven't actually done much with it yet. I don't think Lin was great, but I like him better than the guards they have now.

Philly didn't make any big moves. I don't really understand why they went in the tank so badly last year after their strong start. Maybe they have another big run in them, but I think Brand was an important piece for them and he's gone.

Brooklyn added Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson to a team that went 22-44 last year. They did go 6-4 when Gerald Wallace and Deron Williams both played. I don't know. It's another team that I'm sure their fans will like and may eventually put it together but these things take time and their one big inside presence only played 5 games last year.

Miami is the clear favorite, but they're another team that I don't think cares about the regular season. They want to get a good seed to avoid playing on the road early, but they're not afraid to play on the road in the playoffs and I doubt they go all out to get the top seed if another team gets off to a nice start and builds a lead.

So, I think we can grab the #2 seed and if Miami sleepwalks through parts of the season then we have a chance at the #1 spot. Either way, I think our goal is to make it to the ECF this time around and the way to do that is to duck Miami until that round.

Yeah it's a joke how easily people are dismissing the Pacers. It's like, "uh, hey guys, we had the 3rd best record in the East, we're bringing back our entire starting lineup, and we upgraded collison/barbosa/jones/amundson into augustin/stephenson/green/mahinmi. We have no injury concerns, no massive changes to get used to (Nets, cough, Nets).

I mean, I'll give you Miami. OK. They probably end up with a better record.

But Brooklyn? Yeah I'm sure their humphries/lopez frontline is going to dominate, and their awful awful insanely awful bench depth will help so much during the regular season.

New York? Please. Felton/Kidd, nuff said. Not like Carmelo/Amare/Chandler were doing that great anyways...

Boston? They're the one team I do have to give respect to, as rondo/kg/pierce is always a threat. But I expect that with their new young guys (sullinger, melo) and the integration of lee, terry, that they will have some trouble here and there during the regular season. They have done it multiple times now, limping into the playoffs as a 4th/5th seed and then turning on the afterburners.

Orlando? LOL

Atlanta? LOL

Philly? LOL

Chicago? No Rose, lost the whole bench mob. Everyone says, "oh but they did well even with Rose out last year." Small sample size, folks. Hinrich/Rip/Deng/Boozer/Noah ain't gonna have a better record than the Pacers, period.

Who else is there? NOBODY.

granger05 wrote:So, I think we can grab the #2 seed and if Miami sleepwalks through parts of the season then we have a chance at the #1 spot. Either way, I think our goal is to make it to the ECF this time around and the way to do that is to duck Miami until that round.

I don't want to get overly optimistic here, but we were the closest to beating the in the playoffs than any other team (I know Boston took it to 7, but the series wasn't that close). I don't necessarily think we need to avoid them. Of course, if we get the 2nd seed and they get the 1st seed, then we wouldn't play them until the ECF.

I think we can contend with Miami, especially now that we have added more to our fronline (mahinmi), and they still play without a true center, which is their weakness.

If Rose is out for half the season, I see us winning the Central with around 55 wins. whether that is good enough for 2nd, I just don't know. Boston was awful until the all star break last year; will they be good from the beginning next year or coast a while? Orlando is an absolute puzzle; will they get a trade done ever and if not will Howard carry them in a contract year? I never was a Joe Johnson fan so I don't think his loss will hurt Atlanta or help Brooklyn as much as is being predicted. Philly will be back - last year's rise and fall was schedule related as they had lots of home games early and road games late. NY better hope Carmelo learns something in his summer with Coach K; if not they'll wish they'd paid Lin. The Bucks were almost there last year, and I don't see them rolling over and just conceding their spot to the Nets. I can see the Raptors surprising; they have not only this year's picks but they have a Euro from a past draft coming over.

My expectation is 50+ wins. Also, at this point in time, the only team in the East that appears to be clearly better than the Pacers is Miami, so the #2 playoff seed could be a good possibility.

It's been a quiet offseason for our team. I am quietly optimistic that the moves to improve the bench will work out. However, I wish I could feel more excited about the starting five. It's a good, but not great, starting lineup. Somehow, it is going to have to get better before there will be much real hope to beat the very best teams like Miami, Oklahoma, etc. in a playoff series. But I'm not sure what our front office realistically could have done this summer to upgrade the starting lineup. Sometimes you just have to be patient.

I'll accept that we have five good but not great starters but the hope is that five good players can beat a couple of great players and a bunch of what the Colts coaches used to call "just guys." the Colts had a great record under Polian with a strategy of paying big bucks for a handful of difference makers and filling out the roster with low round picks and undrafted free agents under rookie contracts. however, the NFL revenue sharing is much different from the NBA. football gets megabucks from TV and has a hard cap. the NBA small market teams have neither the ticket revenue nor the local TV revenue that the big market teams do.

the good news is that basketball is at the end of the day a team sport. Butler got to two final games in a row with a bunch of kids that wouldn't have earned an on campus visit at the traditional powers. watch IU beating Syracuse in that championship game or beating North Carolina in that game where Dan Dakich shut down Jordan and marvel how a well coached team can beat a squad with much better individual talent. for that matter watch the Pacers go up 2-1 over Miami before James and Wade figured out they had to do more than take turns being individual stars.

I'm hoping that the plan to have 5 players all of whom are very good but none of whom are great works.

The team blueprint has been successful in previous situations. A good example is the 2004 Detroit Pistons. The main takeaway from how that team was able to dominate games was DEFENSE. The Pacers have a well put together starting five; in terms of potential to be a defensive powerhouse. The only defender in the starting unit thats not really a good defender is West. But when you look at the Pacers they are built similar to what Detroit was in 2004.

Pacers Pistons

Hill / Billups
George / Hamilton
Granger / Prince
West / Wallace
Hibbert / Wallace

Dont get me wrong because im not saying the abilities are an exact match; however the model is similar with Hill and George being younger and more athletic but not as wise; Granger and Prince are similar players (Prince may be the better defender); West is a jump shooting 4; as was Sheed Wallace and Hibbert is the defensive anchor; and more developed offensively but less physical than Big Ben. The main difference was the killer instinct and smashmouth mentality of detroit. The Pacers have four nice guys; minus West.

I think you are short changing West. He's hardly a lazy defender and didn't get shown up often last year even though he was coming off a knee injury. Perhaps you are judging him off the Miami series and it is certainly true that James was a tough match-up for him, but how many power forwards can you name who don't find James hard to stay in front of?

Wizop wrote:I think you are short changing West. He's hardly a lazy defender and didn't get shown up often last year even though he was coming off a knee injury. Perhaps you are judging him off the Miami series and it is certainly true that James was a tough match-up for him, but how many power forwards can you name who don't find James hard to stay in front of?

I understand that guarding James is tough for anyone; However im speaking in reference to the fact that in many games last season West wouldnt adjust or block the shots of opposing players when they would get to the rim; He would watch them dunk the ball if he didnt foul them. In the scheme of team defense defending is more than just staying in front of your man.

I'll grant you that West relies more on being in position and his strength than on jumping but I wouldn't judge him solely on last year as he wasn't fully confident in his knee. I think he could be a much better player next year with a stronger knee.

I think the bigger problem now is what they criticized us for last year that we still haven't resolved: a go-to scorer. Hopefully Paul George turns into that guy. If not, we're going to need to make a move in free agency next year to get someone who can create his own shot and score. Granger is just too inconsistent with his scoring and he doesn't seem very confident in late game situation. I think we need more of a superstar than Danny Granger. Not to say Danny is bad, but he's not the late game closer we need.

I would expect your group to be right up near the top again. You should pass us for the division title with rose out atleast until march; Deng recovering and we made salary decions to downgrade the bench. That should move you up to number two as we fall a few notches. I think with the older legs in boston they won't have as good of a regular season as you but they'll be a tough in the playoffs. The knicks have talent but have not shown they can play together and I think getting rid of lin was a mistake. So I think you stay ahead of them. The nets will be interesting as they have assembled a pretty good starting five. I would expect you would finish second maybe third in the east as things look today. Should be a good season.

Shootdabull wrote:I would expect your group to be right up near the top again. You should pass us for the division title with rose out atleast until march; Deng recovering and we made salary decions to downgrade the bench. That should move you up to number two as we fall a few notches. I think with the older legs in boston they won't have as good of a regular season as you but they'll be a tough in the playoffs. The knicks have talent but have not shown they can play together and I think getting rid of lin was a mistake. So I think you stay ahead of them. The nets will be interesting as they have assembled a pretty good starting five. I would expect you would finish second maybe third in the east as things look today. Should be a good season.

I noticed your avatar, and thought I'd add this: Is it possible that the Bulls are tanking their season to get a top 10 pick in next year's draft, and maybe even try to get Nerlens Noel or Cody Zeller in the draft?

If I was a Bulls fan, I don't see any upside in putting Derrick Rose out there next season. I don't think that he'd be 100% for the playoffs and I think he has to be in order for them to be a real contender. If they're not a real contender then I don't think it's worth the risk to him. Part of the reason he had this injury in the first place is that he kept rushing back and getting more dinged up. If we had a player like that, I would prefer to see him get sat down until he's fully recovered. Once you commit to that, then you're better off in the long term by stripping down the roster and landing another impact player. Unfortunately, I think that their remaining group of Deng/Noah/Boozer is probably still good enough to grab a playoff spot even if Rose doesn't play at all so their path to tanking would require some more blatant moves.

My feeling is that management really wants us to make the playoffs this year. They want the revenue from a playoff series or two. It would take a prolong injury to noah or deng to take us out of playoff hunt. It seems like of us Bulls fans think we fall to around fifth or sixth. There is a group cheering for tank year but I don't see that happening. I would be very surprised if rose isn't back out there and even more surprised if back to 100%. Even at 80% he is much better than anyone else we have. I do think they would strip down the roster for the right player like dwight but until one of those stars puts you on the list we could easily wind up in worse shape by stripping down. So I suspect the division this year is yours for taking. I was kind of surpised reading the thread that writers were not predicting you second or third. Outside of the heat, I suspect you will be right there.