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Simple 3 questions to kickstart this....

When do you feel the 2014 market will begin? (And don't be smart and say 2014 because of question 2)

How valuable will ending contracts become when it starts (i.e. Granger)?

How important will it be to get Paul George and Lance Stephenson signed?

There's a ton of big expiring contracts out there, and an expiring like Granger is only valuable if you're willing to eat a bad long term deal in return. We are not.

Scoot McGroot wrote:There's a ton of big expiring contracts out there, and an expiring like Granger is only valuable if you're willing to eat a bad long term deal in return. We are not.

I would agree except for one aspect.

Assuming the 2014 cap is set at 60-62 million meaning the luxury tax threshold around 73-75 million, odds are that a George or Stephenson resigning will only cost the Pacers 20 million in the first year and around 22-23 million in the 2nd year.

Right now, using current cap settings as well as signings, the Pacers are right near 50 million in cap for the 2014 season, which is right at the borderline.

How desperate are teams to target a LeBron or a Carmelo that they will not only take on a player making the same salary but also play the same position?

DWCP2 wrote:

Scoot McGroot wrote:There's a ton of big expiring contracts out there, and an expiring like Granger is only valuable if you're willing to eat a bad long term deal in return. We are not.

I would agree except for one aspect.

Assuming the 2014 cap is set at 60-62 million meaning the luxury tax threshold around 73-75 million, odds are that a George or Stephenson resigning will only cost the Pacers 20 million in the first year and around 22-23 million in the 2nd year.

Right now, using current cap settings as well as signings, the Pacers are right near 50 million in cap for the 2014 season, which is right at the borderline.

How desperate are teams to target a LeBron or a Carmelo that they will not only take on a player making the same salary but also play the same position?

I think you forgot Wests extension and all the new guys. I need to type up a spreadsheet to get exact numbers, but we are at about $50 million committed BEFORE extending George and Lance. After, we're at about $70-72m already.

Scoot McGroot wrote:

DWCP2 wrote:

Scoot McGroot wrote:There's a ton of big expiring contracts out there, and an expiring like Granger is only valuable if you're willing to eat a bad long term deal in return. We are not.

I would agree except for one aspect.

Assuming the 2014 cap is set at 60-62 million meaning the luxury tax threshold around 73-75 million, odds are that a George or Stephenson resigning will only cost the Pacers 20 million in the first year and around 22-23 million in the 2nd year.

Right now, using current cap settings as well as signings, the Pacers are right near 50 million in cap for the 2014 season, which is right at the borderline.

How desperate are teams to target a LeBron or a Carmelo that they will not only take on a player making the same salary but also play the same position?

I think you forgot Wests extension and all the new guys. I need to type up a spreadsheet to get exact numbers, but we are at about $50 million committed BEFORE extending George and Lance. After, we're at about $70-72m already.

Well, I goofed slightly. Hoopshype numbers don't include the team options on OJ and Plumlee.

That said the total is closer to 32.45 million.

Then you add in the contracts for 2014

West at 12 million
Copeland at 3 million
Watson and Sloan probably about 3-4 million combined between them.
Solo Hill at about 1.6 or so.

All that added you come up to just above 53 million.

It stands to possibly help us with George but may hurt us signing Stephenson.

However, the cap is just preliminary and could go up higher with the CBA changes.

Im hoping their both extended during the season to prevent them from hitting the market. They will then have to look for takers of Green; and possibly Mahinmi during the 2014 off-season for additional cap room if upgrades are necessary. Not to mention the draft picks are going to have to be good picks from here on out. The d-league will likely be holding players for the Pacers going forward as well which will likely be a good thing if there are some that blossom there. One concern will be in 2-3 years what will the team do to replace West.

DWCP2 wrote:

Scoot McGroot wrote:

DWCP2 wrote:
I would agree except for one aspect.

Assuming the 2014 cap is set at 60-62 million meaning the luxury tax threshold around 73-75 million, odds are that a George or Stephenson resigning will only cost the Pacers 20 million in the first year and around 22-23 million in the 2nd year.

Right now, using current cap settings as well as signings, the Pacers are right near 50 million in cap for the 2014 season, which is right at the borderline.

How desperate are teams to target a LeBron or a Carmelo that they will not only take on a player making the same salary but also play the same position?

I think you forgot Wests extension and all the new guys. I need to type up a spreadsheet to get exact numbers, but we are at about $50 million committed BEFORE extending George and Lance. After, we're at about $70-72m already.

Well, I goofed slightly. Hoopshype numbers don't include the team options on OJ and Plumlee.

That said the total is closer to 32.45 million.

Then you add in the contracts for 2014

West at 12 million
Copeland at 3 million
Watson and Sloan probably about 3-4 million combined between them.
Solo Hill at about 1.6 or so.

All that added you come up to just above 53 million.

It stands to possibly help us with George but may hurt us signing Stephenson.

However, the cap is just preliminary and could go up higher with the CBA changes.

$14 for Paul George on a super max, and $5-8m for Lance, depending on his performance this year, and you're at $72-75m already for 2014. The tax is likely to be at $75-76m and that's after the hoped for bump in BRI.

2014 Free agency thread? lol this is why this forum and you guys are the best. Always thinking ahead.

So, when do we start the 2014 draft thread? Cuz im really liking Chris Walker...

correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Granger's expiring contract only a bargaining chip through the trading deadline in February? when we get to next summer, he'll just be a free agent although we could S&T. now Green will be an expiring contract next July.

Wizop wrote:correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Granger's expiring contract only a bargaining chip through the trading deadline in February? when we get to next summer, he'll just be a free agent although we could S&T. now Green will be an expiring contract next July.

That is true Wizop, however there is one highlight in an earlier reply I'll gladly make again.

Say you're a team in pursuit of a LeBron, Carmelo, George, etc. and you want to either clear space, open up cap space, or keep space handy for 2014.

Almost logically, any team pursuing a major free agent or wanting to do so will look at every expiring on any team and attempt to acquire them.

Why Granger?

Think about it, he's also playing for his next contract as well, so it's a win win for any team getting him because he's making just shy this year what a LeBron or Carmelo will be making in the first year of any new contracts.

Would you rather pay to clear space or pay the pony up sign and trade costs in 2014? I'd choose the fore long before the latter.

understood, but my point is that all ends at the trading deadline and so Granger doesn't really factor into our 2014 talent search unless you count January and February of 2014 in that topic.

It would be great to get Lance and Paul their extensions now. You might get a little bit of a discount and then you know what needs to be done to stay below Luxury Tax line.

Yeah, the longer you wait the more expensive it's gonna be. Give Lance his 5-6 mil contract and give George the near-max or max and be done with it.

Paul can re-sign through October. I'm not sure if Lance can extend before free agency as he's technically not on a rookie scale contract.

I think Lance is on a four year contract which can be extended three years after it was signed. I'm not sure exactly when that would be. We have until June 30 to agree to that extension and then he becomes a free agent. Paul is on a rookie contract so he can be extended now that the moratorium has passed and up to 10/31.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q58

Paul made 3rd team NBA this year. If I read this right, his max salary will increase from 25% of the cap to 30% if he makes all NBA again this year. We can sign a contract now that gives him a percentage from 25 to 30% should the condition be met. we can also designate him as the one player on the team eligible for a 5 year contract.

He's a veteran contract, not a rookie scale (Lance, I mean), so technically he could get a 3 year extension but the 1st year can only be 107.5% of this years salary and 7.5% raises. Thus, his contract extension would MAX out at 3 year/$4.4m TOTAL. $1.5m a year. Lance is one of those guys that falls through the cracks of the rules and HAS to hit free agency to get a fair deal.

Scoot McGroot wrote:He's a veteran contract, not a rookie scale (Lance, I mean), so technically he could get a 3 year extension but the 1st year can only be 107.5% of this years salary and 7.5% raises. Thus, his contract extension would MAX out at 3 year/$4.4m TOTAL. $1.5m a year. Lance is one of those guys that falls through the cracks of the rules and HAS to hit free agency to get a fair deal.

Yes, but the one advantage in Indiana is that Stephenson will be hitting restricted free agency. If the Pacers extend him a QO, I think my calculation was 1.767 million, then the Pacers can match any deal Stephenson makes using the MLE, per the Gilbert Arenas rule.

DWCP2 wrote:

Scoot McGroot wrote:He's a veteran contract, not a rookie scale (Lance, I mean), so technically he could get a 3 year extension but the 1st year can only be 107.5% of this years salary and 7.5% raises. Thus, his contract extension would MAX out at 3 year/$4.4m TOTAL. $1.5m a year. Lance is one of those guys that falls through the cracks of the rules and HAS to hit free agency to get a fair deal.

Yes, but the one advantage in Indiana is that Stephenson will be hitting restricted free agency. If the Pacers extend him a QO, I think my calculation was 1.767 million, then the Pacers can match any deal Stephenson makes using the MLE, per the Gilbert Arenas rule.

nope, he's unrestricted. If we had signed him to a 3 year deal instead of a 4 year, he would be a restricted free agent this summer. However, he will be unrestricted next summer. We do not control his rights.

It is an interesting one, Stephenson seems to be blossoming due to Vogel and the staff at Indiana, the question is whether he knows that, or whether he is going to gamble for cash. He might get a superb offer from a team desperate enough, anything over 7 million a year would be too much I reckon - and if I am not mistaken we won't be able to offer that much will we?

It all depends on how he works out this season, if he increases his efficiency and doesn't have any off-court gaffs we might well lose him.

Nate McMillan recently said small market teams have small windows. this is an example of why. we've got an opportunity this year but then we could lose both Lance and Danny to free agency (or have to move Mahinmi) because we can't go into tax land to keep them. without belaboring the math it is pretty clear that with two max contracts you can fill out the starting five with contracts over the MLE but you can't have a highly paid player coming off the bench unless you have a cheap starter.