The unmentionable: how do we keep Lance?

[EuroPacer]

The season is going extremely well and I am sure you all agree that Lance is playing a big part in that. I brought this up before I believe, but now things are getting a bit clearer regarding his situation:

He is going to be worth 10 million a year at least, so how do we keep him?

If I remember well, without Danny on the books we will have about 6 million under the tax-line available. If we move Mahinmi for nothing we get to ten million, but we lose a valuable piece: the back-up big. If we move Cope we get to about 9 million, which might just about get us to the line although it is a push.

Sloan, Butler and OJ can all be let go, but they are cheap bench pieces and will only have to be replaced with other cheap bench pieces.

Considering we will be without Danny, presumably Solomon Hill will go up in the rotation.

Then there are some other options that seem far less palatable:

Hang on to Cope and move West, this would mean that Scola will start (presumably) and together with Hibbert and Hill take the seniority mantle, which I think they are ready for, but West is arguably still more difficult to replace than Stephenson. Especially on the defensive end we would lose out.

Move Scola and keep Cope will also get us close and is arguably a more favourable option than the one above, but is Cope really the answer for 20+ minutes? We simply don't really know what his impact on defense will be.

Than there is the alternative where George Hill is moved for a cheaper PG, interesting options that can help with defense and that could work next to Lance as combo-guards in the style of GH and that are becoming available:

Starting Calibre:

Mario Chalmers, Rodney Stuckey (on a lot of money),

Questionable to start with:

Ramon Sessions, Darren Collison (not sure he would fit with Stephenson, was moved before), Jerryd Bayless,

Back-up guys that still leave a hole:

Kirk Hinrich, Toney Douglas... and a whole host of others.

Alternatively we need to consider letting Lance go and find another dynamo at SG, and frankly, the free-agent class is not inspiring apart from maybe Stuckey and Chalmers and moving GH back to SG...

The more I think about this, the more I realise what a conundrum Bird has on his hands and the more likely I find it that this is likely to be our one and only shot at the title.

[Wizop]

there is also the option to move GHill and let Lance be the starting point guard. that said, at 10mm, I think we lose him.

[mikepacernation]

Larry will think if something to keep him.. Lance means to much to this team to let him go. I could see maybe moving copeland.

[EuroPacer]

Had another think, I am hoping, although I know better, that we break the tax line. Interest in this team has already surpassed any of the past Pacers team, bar the Finals year. It is however not bad business to build on the current trend, people here in the UK, that are basketball fans, are all of a sudden talking about the Pacers, surely the same is happening the world over.

Letting Lance go will break the chances of this team, there is a lack of interesting SGs, and even then, it is rare to find a player like Lance, I have been trying to think of a similar player in the past ten, fifteen years and I can't think of anyone other than Wade.

[mikepacernation]

Had another think, I am hoping, although I know better, that we break the tax line. Interest in this team has already surpassed any of the past Pacers team, bar the Finals year. It is however not bad business to build on the current trend, people here in the UK, that are basketball fans, are all of a sudden talking about the Pacers, surely the same is happening the world over.

Letting Lance go will break the chances of this team, there is a lack of interesting SGs, and even then, it is rare to find a player like Lance, I have been trying to think of a similar player in the past ten, fifteen years and I can't think of anyone other than Wade.

I agree with you. I think for the pacers to contend for a title after this year we are gonna have to go past the tax.. Cause lance is become one of our most important pieces and we can't afford ticket him go especially to a place like Chicago.

[Jake0890]

Well, I think we really put ourselves in a tough spot by signing George Hill to a 8 mil/year contract. We definitely could have done better than that contract wise for him, but I guess hindsight is always 20/20.

To keep Lance, Mahinmi is likely gone as is Copeland. But I have confidence that Larry will find a way to keep Lance as a Pacer.

[knownastron]

I don't think we can let Lance go and hope to repeat (hopefully) next season.

He's too valuable. But Bird has said that he's replaceable in an interview. Not Lance specifically, but that anyone can be replaced...

[No-Man]

Signing West to 12m$ was beyond stupid.
Signing Copeland for 3.5m$ i a bad decision.
The trades were terrible too.
I mean, Larry is a bball genius and Walsh is good, but Indiana last moves in the FA, mygosh, you have done great things (drafting Hibbert, George and Lance mainly) but the rest of the moves have been pretty average/bad.

[No-Man]

Anyway if you cut non guaranteed players and let Granger walk, you have enough to give LStephenson 10m$/y and stay just at 70m$ in salaries with these players,

Hill-Watson
Stephenson
George-Hill
West-Copeland
Hibbert-Mahinmi

Obviously you are not winning anything with that roster.
Indiana should move a major piece, there is no way around it.

[MillerTheKiller]

Signing West to 12m$ was beyond stupid.
Signing Copeland for 3.5m$ i a bad decision.
The trades were terrible too.
I mean, Larry is a bball genius and Walsh is good, but Indiana last moves in the FA, mygosh, you have done great things (drafting Hibbert, George and Lance mainly) but the rest of the moves have been pretty average/bad.

Singing West or that much wasn't stupid. He's arguably out most important player and out glue.

[Moooose]

Signing West to 12m$ was beyond stupid.
Signing Copeland for 3.5m$ i a bad decision.
The trades were terrible too.
I mean, Larry is a bball genius and Walsh is good, but Indiana last moves in the FA, mygosh, you have done great things (drafting Hibbert, George and Lance mainly) but the rest of the moves have been pretty average/bad.

Signing west with that contract was just right. Copeland's is quite bad, yes, but he was signed before Indiana got Scola. The trade sending Plumlee and Green for Scola is debateable. Miles will not get the minutes he's getting in Phoenix with this team. Same case as Green too. Scola is a big addition to this team and fits well with the team's needs.

[pacers70]

The first step in answering the question of keeping Stephenson is to look at the numbers.

If no moves are made, here are the players that will be under salary when FA starts:

Hibbert...$14.9 million
West........12
Hill............8
Scola.........4.5
Mahinmi.....4
George......15.8
Copeland....3.1
Watson.......2.1
S. Hill.........1.3

That total 9 players at $65.7 million. The last I heard, the projected tax cap for 2014 was $75.7 million. That means the Pacers will have about $10 million to sign 4-6 players. If they sign 3 players at $.5 million each, that will leave $8.5 million for Lance. Signing Lance (or if Lance leaves anyone) for $8.5 million would cause a problem with the Pacer bench. Using that much would mean our back-up wings would be S. Hill (who is unproven) and one or two players at $.5 million which means they are unproven rookies. Their other options would be to slide G. Hill and/or Watson over to play some SG. That move would give us a small back court which would be okay for limited minutes but you would not want to do that for more than 8-10 minutes per game...tops.

Trading G. Hill isn't going to happen for 3 reasons. First Bird likes him (he compared him to Denis Johnson), second he is a local guy which is good for franchise publicity and third, who is going to take his $8 million salary for 3 more years?

Some have suggested trading West. That's just plain silly. The reason we are where we are is because West has brought the veteran leadership and toughness to this team. He is a key element and Bird is not and should not trade him.

Trading Scola has been brought up. Bird waited a long time to get Scola, he isn't about to trade him after only one year.

Trading Mahinmi may be a possibility, but who would then be our back up center? There is no one on the horizon that could be a rim protector. Besides, I'm not sure many teams would want Mahinmi at $4 million for the next two years.

That leaves Copeland. The only way we can get rid of Copeland's contract, in my opinion, is to virtually give him away. Trade him for an expiring contract before the trade deadline or for a 2nd round draft pick. I'm not sure I like the idea of Copeland straight up for a second round pick. Another option is to package Copeland and S. Hill. We would need to get salaries less than the $4.4 million we are going to pay them next season.

I think Bird is going to find a way to offer Lance a fair package, unfortunately there are other teams out there with more money available that will offer Lance more money. The question will come down to whether Lance goes strictly for the money or if he takes the environment into consideration.

In my opinion, the Pacers will make NO MOVES before the trade deadline. Why should they? They have the best record in the league and good team chemistry.

In the summer, I look for Granger to sign with the Lakers. Lance will get offered a fair deal with the Pacers that will pay him about $7 million the first year. Whether he takes it or not is anybody's guess.

[basketballwacko2]

OK I'll post on this thread, I cannot see moving David West, No way no how. George Hill is very popular I don't see him moving. That leaves Copeland, Ian, and Scola, we have team options on Johnson and Sloan. If you're gonna move Ian or Scola you have to get centers or PF's back that are cheaper, we dumped Plumlee a bit too soon it seems. I'd look at who has been drafted in the last 2 years at C and PF to find replacements.

Copeland has to be moved you cannot keep him at $3.13 million, Sloan makes $900k, I'll trade Ian if we can find a cheap backup (Plumlee would have fit nicely) and I'd rather not move Scola unless we get a 2nd yr guy who is paid a lot less.

[Wizop]

West or Scola could decide to retire if we win it all. I don't see that as likely but it is possible. if not, we're probably not going to be able to go over around 8 for Lance unless the cap and tax jump way up or Herb Simon decides that having won a championship he's willing to pay some tax to keep the team together. if someone with cap room offers Lance 12 to 15, I think he's gone. the CBA is pretty much setup so that you can't have 3 max contracts without paying tax and we've got our two max deals already.

cross your fingers that Granger returns to form (although a 30 something Granger won't be the player he was at his peak) because if we can't keep Lance at 8, we'll have to see if we can keep Danny with a similar number and let him start at 3 with PG moving back to the 2.

[Jake0890]

Is there any slight chance that, should we win the Finals, Simon agrees to pay the tax to keep the team together?

[mikepacernation]

If we don't go into the tax next year I honestly don't see this team winning a championship the only reason we have who we have this year is because PG and lance are still on the rookie deals. Simon would be smart to go into it a little to win championship because if not I don't see a finals in a near future besides this year

[pacers70]

Is there any slight chance that, should we win the Finals, Simon agrees to pay the tax to keep the team together?

There's always a chance, but in my opinion, it is only about 1%.

I think the key is moving Copeland this summer for a proven veteran back-up swingman at or below his salary. If we can do that, then we could have $8 million to sign Lance or Danny. That MAY give us a shot at one of them, most likely Danny.

I would be fairly happy with a reasonably healthy 30+ year old Granger starting at the 3 and playing 30-32 mpg with George starting at 2 and playing 36 mpg. Obviously it would be better to have Stephenson and George, but if Lance keeps playing like he has been, the Pacers won't be able to afford him.

Bird will do something this summer...it will be interesting to see what. I'm sure there are talks going on behind the scenes about players that we have not even thought about. Kind of like the Scola deal came out of the blue.

[8305]

If the Pacers are serious about staying under the cap and keeping Lance I think you look to move George Hill. There's no one else with a combination of value and contract size that get's you anywhere.

Something like Hill to Orlando for their second 2014 1st round pick (i think it sits around pick 15 right now). Or Hill to Orlando for Harkless and Moore.

Get one or two young cheap assets and salary relief. Maybe create 6 mil or so of salary relief. Now you have the space to resign Lance at about 12 mil/year.

The offensive usage of Paul and Lance is only going to increase from here out. That translates to less usage for George Hill. The college game produces multiple combo guards every year so there will always be a reasonable inventory of replacements to consider. It will be a painful decision just as it was for the people in San Antonio. In a money ball world how much can you afford to pay for your 5th option? Probably not 8 mil a year when the other 4 starters earn between 55 and 60 mil a year.

[OnFire]

Before anything else, I think they key
is wining it all this year.

If we do, it'll be a good sell to Lance
to stay and this is the best place to be.

We can move Cope to another team
as an expiring for probably a couple
future 2nds.

To fill out the roster, I'd think we can
be a destination for vets who can play
a role and want to win a ring.

And I have full confidence that this,
truly, is our year.

GO PACERS!

[basketballwacko2]

We need another big I'd sign Bynum to a 10 day deal and see if he has anything to offer. Then look to move Copeland at the trade deadline. There are only a couple teams under the cap Right now, so if you're gonna make a deadline deal and not take back salary it has to be one of them.