Will the Pacers give Myles Turner an extension?

winter_mute_13 · Post #1 » by **winter_mute_13** » Sun Jul 8, 2018 5:28 pm

Pacers have until the start of the 2018 season to sign Myles Turner to an extension to his rookie deal.

So far, from Turner's draft class only Devin Booker has been extended. The Suns signed him to a maximum 5 year $158m extension. Karl Anthony Towns is also expected to sign a max extension, but in his case he is eligible for a higher max due to having made All-NBA. Kristaps Porzingis is an outside possibility, but due to his injury history, any extension he gets will probably be incentive-laden, similar to what Embiid received last year.

The first question to ask, is Myles a max player? If the Pacers think yes, then it's a no-brainer to offer a max extension. If not, then it depends on whether the Pacers and Myles can agree on what is a fair number for a new contract.

I'll just go ahead and say Myles probably isn't a max player. So let's take a look at some recent contracts offered to big men, sorted from highest to lowest:

N. Jokic 5 years $148m
D. Jordan 1 year $22.9m
A. Gordon 4 years $76m
D. Favors 2 years $36m
J. Nurkic 4 year $48m (or $53m)
J. Randle 2 years $18m
D. Howard 2 years $11m
A. Baynes 2 years $11m
D. Cousins 1 year $5.3m
K. O'Quinn 1 year $4.5m
E. Davis 1 year $4.4m
B. Lopez 1 year $3.5m
N. Noel 2 years $3.5m (min)
C. Capela still unsigned, RFA

With a couple of exceptions, it's apparent that the market for centers has really cratered, even if a guy like DeMarcus is considered an anomaly. The exceptions are Jokic, who is superstar level, and DeAndre Jordan, who probably can't be considered a real FA, since he wouldn't have opted out without the assurance of a new deal (Mavs basically traded for him for nothing in return).

After that, the highest paid center is Favors at $18m per. It has come out that it's actually more like $16m + incentives, and the second year is unguaranteed. That's... not a lot, compared to what centers are historically paid.

Myles has a couple of things going for him. One, more teams will have cap space next season, so perhaps the offers will be better (but the money won't necessarily go to centers!). Two, he is more of a stretch 5, making him more comparable to someone like Aaron Gordon than the traditional centers on the list.

So, what do you guys think? What's a fair number for Myles? And can he and the Pacers agree on an extension?

For myself, I think an Aaron Gordon type deal would be acceptable.

EDIT: messed up the details of Favors' contract - $36m total instead of $26m. Also added Brook's new contract

Wizop · Post #2 » by **Wizop** » Sun Jul 8, 2018 6:32 pm

how about a Victor type deal?

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Tom White · Post #3 » by **Tom White** » Sun Jul 8, 2018 7:07 pm

I've got to disagree with both of you. To me, Turner is no where close to a $19M-$21M per year player. More like maybe $14M-$15M per year.

Why?

Lack of improvement last year for one thing. Actually took a step backwards. He is semi-one dimensional on offense. Meaning he is not a player who has a good post game to go along with his decent (not great, but decent) outside shot. He is not a guy who sets good, solid screens for his 'mates. He sometimes looks a bit lost when it comes to knowing when to space the floor and when to get in the lane. Not good on the offensive glass.

On defense, he is a pretty good shot blocker, but not really a good defender other than that. His rebounding is less than what I would hope for from a guy his size. He is unable to out-position his opponent for boards. Can get caught easily on switches. When he gets a defensive rebound, he does not look for an outlet pass to get the break going.

He is not as aware as he should be on either end of the floor.

After saying all of that, you might think "He REALLY hates Turner." No, not at all. He just has not done anything, in my mind, to warrant a contract anywhere near a max.

Yeah, he is still young. He has that going for him, but so do a lot of other guys in the league.

winter_mute_13 · Post #4 » by **winter_mute_13** » Sun Jul 8, 2018 7:24 pm

Tom White wrote:He just has not done anything, in my mind, to warrant a contract anywhere near a max.

I don't disagree with your points, but I just want to point out that $19m-20m is nowhere near the max for Myles. The first year salary for a rookie max will be around $27m, with an average closer to $30m for a 4-5 year deal. NBA contract inflation is very real :lol:

Wizop · Post #5 » by **Wizop** » Sun Jul 8, 2018 8:46 pm

13 is Thad Young. 19 is LaVine. where does Myles fit??

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basketballwacko2 · Post #6 » by **basketballwacko2** » Sun Jul 8, 2018 8:55 pm

I don't think he gets and extension, we need to see him improve this year. If he makes a serious improvement I'd give him 5 yrs at $16 million with raises and a player option in yr 5. 5yrs $88 million.

basketballwacko2 · Post #7 » by **basketballwacko2** » Sun Jul 8, 2018 9:08 pm

Wizop wrote:13 is Thad Young. 19 is LaVine. where does Myles fit??

Sent from my phone.

I think LaVine is over paid, he's gonna have to show me he's worth that.

Wizop · Post #8 » by **Wizop** » Sun Jul 8, 2018 9:10 pm

basketballwacko2 wrote:I think LaVine is over paid, he's gonna have to show me he's worth that.

two teams thought he was worth it.

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PTA · Post #9 » by **PTA** » Sun Jul 8, 2018 10:30 pm

basketballwacko2 wrote:I don't think he gets and extension, we need to see him improve this year. If he makes a serious improvement I'd give him 5 yrs at $16 million with raises and a player option in yr 5. 5yrs $88 million.

He is still growing into his body and has shooting and blocking skills. He has opertunity cost. He will likely grow into a near all-star if not all-star. He is worth 15 million now. This will likely go above 20 million in 3 years. If the Pacers don't get him signed he will get a Max offer next year with the excess of money available. I think it would be smart to offer enough money for him to accept that's less than the max. 19-21M per year. He is thought of highly throughout the league.

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PTA · Post #10 » by **PTA** » Sun Jul 8, 2018 10:32 pm

PTA wrote:
basketballwacko2 wrote:I don't think he gets and extension, we need to see him improve this year. If he makes a serious improvement I'd give him 5 yrs at $16 million with raises and a player option in yr 5. 5yrs $88 million.
He is still growing into his body and has shooting and blocking skills. He has opertunity cost. He will likely grow into a near all-star if not all-star. He is worth 15 million now. This will likely go above 20 million in 3 years. If the Pacers don't get him signed he will get a Max offer next year with the excess of money available. I think it would be smart to offer enough money for him to accept that's less than the max. 19-21M per year. He is thought of highly throughout the league. It would be a shame to lose him from lack of planning.

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Sent from my Z982 using Tapatalk

Captain_Obvious · Post #11 » by **Captain_Obvious** » Mon Jul 9, 2018 11:19 am

Turner for DSJ? That way you don't have to pay for his next contract...

Post #12 » by **Scoot McGroot** » Mon Jul 9, 2018 12:06 pm

Captain_Obvious wrote:Turner for DSJ? That way you don't have to pay for his next contract...

DSJ? Who’s that?

Indy4Life · Post #13 » by **Indy4Life** » Mon Jul 9, 2018 12:17 pm

Must be Dennis Smith Jr....coming from a Mavs fan.

Captain_Obvious · Post #14 » by **Captain_Obvious** » Mon Jul 9, 2018 12:56 pm

Indy4Life wrote:Must be Dennis Smith Jr....coming from a Mavs fan.

Yup, Dennis Smith Jr

Sorry, too used to this acronym :wink:

Wizop · Post #15 » by **Wizop** » Mon Jul 9, 2018 1:12 pm

Captain_Obvious wrote:Turner for DSJ? That way you don't have to pay for his next contract...

no. not a matter of talent, or value, or even not trading bigs for smalls. we simply do not need an upgrade at guard.

Pacers_Freak · Post #16 » by **Pacers_Freak** » Mon Jul 9, 2018 1:46 pm

I'm a little surprised at the responses on here. I think Myles is going to get an extension and will be compensated quite nicely. People will complain about how much Indy paid him. But, I don't think they want to let him go and I think you can get him cheaper this summer than matching a RFA offer.

Post #17 » by **Scoot McGroot** » Mon Jul 9, 2018 2:06 pm

So, Indy will definitely re sign Myles Turner, but in all likelihood should not extend him before this October. Myles’ cap hold is only $10m for next season, but if you extend him now, you immediately replace that cap hold with his much larger actual number. If we want to maximize any chance at cap space, we’ll wait to sign him next summer, use our cap space while he’s at a lower cap number, and then exceed the cap to re sign him.

I’m sure we’ll likely negotiate the deal before the season starts and then tell him and his agent how we’re planning on waiting to sign him to maximize flexibility.

Wizop · Post #18 » by **Wizop** » Mon Jul 9, 2018 2:32 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:I’m sure we’ll likely negotiate the deal before the season starts and then tell him and his agent how we’re planning on waiting to sign him to maximize flexibility.

That puts the injury risk on Myles. with all the contracts that expire next summer, I won't be surprised if they do the deal this summer after the 15 man roster is set.

Post #19 » by **Scoot McGroot** » Mon Jul 9, 2018 4:09 pm

Wizop wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:I’m sure we’ll likely negotiate the deal before the season starts and then tell him and his agent how we’re planning on waiting to sign him to maximize flexibility.

That puts the injury risk on Myles. with all the contracts that expire next summer, I won't be surprised if they do the deal this summer after the 15 man roster is set.

Maybe. Most players do that though if their team wants to have any chance at cap space. Otherwise, the teams lose out on an opportunity they may not have otherwise.

Wizop · Post #20 » by **Wizop** » Mon Jul 9, 2018 4:20 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:Maybe. Most players do that though if their team wants to have any chance at cap space. Otherwise, the teams lose out on an opportunity they may not have otherwise.

understand the pro for the team. just pointing out a con for the player. fwiw, Pritchard recently said that our cap space priority next summer will be retaining our own guys. I'd put Myles and Tyreke at the top of that priority list unless something goes wrong this year.