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2019 Off-Season Questions

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2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#1 » by NYG » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:11 pm

1. Who are your free agents and what percentage would you put on them re-signing?

2. What are your team needs and the overall short term goals of the team?

3. Is there any reason your coach may not be in place next year?

4. Who are you willing to trade?
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#2 » by winter_mute_13 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:00 pm

Obviously these are just guesses:

1. Free agents and chance to re-sign

Young 80%
Bogdanovic 60% (I would like to put it higher but I think he might get a too rich offer)
Joseph 30%
Collison 20%
O'Quinn 1%
Evans 0%

Plus, the newly signed Wes Matthews. It's probably too early to judge, but I have a good feeling.

2. Team needs - just better talent to raise the overall ceiling, especially at PG and SF. It's tricky because the main avenue of improvement is cap space, but to get there the team would have to sacrifice some of the vets that have made them good. So the team will have to tread carefully between retaining their own guys vs. going after new, potentially better, players.

3. Nope. Nate is safe, and Dipo's injury should mean he doesn't get the blame even if the team falls apart in the playoffs.

4. Cap space, probably. Maybe some young guys/picks as sweeteners.
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#3 » by Wizop » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:32 am

I'd rate the odds on keeping DC and CoJo much higher. Our young guards aren't ready to start and we have great chemistry which would we shouldn't put at risk lightly.

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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#4 » by Vorda » Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:25 am

Wizop wrote:I'd rate the odds on keeping DC and CoJo much higher. Our young guards aren't ready to start and we have great chemistry which would we shouldn't put at risk lightly.

Sent from my phone.



But we have a lot cap space... I think quality is more importante than chemistry... DC is old and not good enough to be starter at contending team... with Irving, Kemba or Bledsoe we would be top team... we should resign Thad, Bojan and CoJo, sign Kemba.. we should see how will Matthews fit here... maybe we could sign Ariza as a back up for Bojan...

Kemba , CoJo, Holliday
Oladipo, Matthews
Bojan, Doug?
Thad, Leaf
Turner, Sabonis
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#5 » by Wizop » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:58 pm

I've posted elsewhere that I think it's more likely we bring one guard back than two, but I think the odds on either being only 10 percent is way low. I would put CoJo as more likely than DC based on age. a lot depends on price. I offer DC something over the exemptions though.

I don't want to bring in anyone at a price that won't allow us to pay Damos without going into tax land.

coaches will return.

need a young wing who can defend and get his own shot. first choice would be to find him in the draft.

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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#6 » by Scoot McGroot » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:10 pm

Vorda wrote:
Wizop wrote:I'd rate the odds on keeping DC and CoJo much higher. Our young guards aren't ready to start and we have great chemistry which would we shouldn't put at risk lightly.

Sent from my phone.



But we have a lot cap space... I think quality is more importante than chemistry... DC is old and not good enough to be starter at contending team... with Irving, Kemba or Bledsoe we would be top team... we should resign Thad, Bojan and CoJo, sign Kemba.. we should see how will Matthews fit here... maybe we could sign Ariza as a back up for Bojan...

Kemba , CoJo, Holliday
Oladipo, Matthews
Bojan, Doug?
Thad, Leaf
Turner, Sabonis



In order to use max cap space to sign a Kemba Walker, we can maybe only bring back one of our own free agents, and only if they make less than $12m. Bring back Bojan = no max free agent (no Kemba). And no Thad.
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#7 » by Vorda » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:38 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:
Vorda wrote:
Wizop wrote:I'd rate the odds on keeping DC and CoJo much higher. Our young guards aren't ready to start and we have great chemistry which would we shouldn't put at risk lightly.

Sent from my phone.



But we have a lot cap space... I think quality is more importante than chemistry... DC is old and not good enough to be starter at contending team... with Irving, Kemba or Bledsoe we would be top team... we should resign Thad, Bojan and CoJo, sign Kemba.. we should see how will Matthews fit here... maybe we could sign Ariza as a back up for Bojan...

Kemba , CoJo, Holliday
Oladipo, Matthews
Bojan, Doug?
Thad, Leaf
Turner, Sabonis



In order to use max cap space to sign a Kemba Walker, we can maybe only bring back one of our own free agents, and only if they make less than $12m. Bring back Bojan = no max free agent (no Kemba). And no Thad.


How?

We are on 58 mil next season... if we give Kemba 25, that will be 83... cap is 109... so we can give 13 to Bogie and Thad...

Why did we sign Doug for 3 years? We could trade him for some 2nd round picks and free 7 mil and give that money to Wes...

And why do we have Monta Ellis on salary???????
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#8 » by Vorda » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:44 pm

We could go on Bledsoe... Bucks are in salary trouble... they are already on 85 mil, and they need to resign Bledsoe, Midlleton, Brogdon and Lopez... what a mistake with G.Hill... 18 millions...
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#9 » by Scoot McGroot » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:08 pm

Vorda wrote:We could go on Bledsoe... Bucks are in salary trouble... they are already on 85 mil, and they need to resign Bledsoe, Midlleton, Brogdon and Lopez... what a mistake with G.Hill... 18 millions...


George Hill will be waives. He only has $1m of salary guaranteed for next season.
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#10 » by Scoot McGroot » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:15 pm

Vorda wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:
Vorda wrote:

But we have a lot cap space... I think quality is more importante than chemistry... DC is old and not good enough to be starter at contending team... with Irving, Kemba or Bledsoe we would be top team... we should resign Thad, Bojan and CoJo, sign Kemba.. we should see how will Matthews fit here... maybe we could sign Ariza as a back up for Bojan...

Kemba , CoJo, Holliday
Oladipo, Matthews
Bojan, Doug?
Thad, Leaf
Turner, Sabonis



In order to use max cap space to sign a Kemba Walker, we can maybe only bring back one of our own free agents, and only if they make less than $12m. Bring back Bojan = no max free agent (no Kemba). And no Thad.


How?

We are on 58 mil next season... if we give Kemba 25, that will be 83... cap is 109... so we can give 13 to Bogie and Thad...

Why did we sign Doug for 3 years? We could trade him for some 2nd round picks and free 7 mil and give that money to Wes...

And why do we have Monta Ellis on salary???????



Not sure where you’re looking but Myles new salary isn’t accounted for on many websites and there are salary cap holds for our free agents and 1st round draft pick. We project at max of $44m. Kemba will get a max of around $32m (if the cap rises from $108m, then so does Kembas max), so, Kemba on his max and one of our free agents puts us right at the line.
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#11 » by pacers33granger » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:43 pm

1. Who are your free agents and what percentage would you put on them re-signing?

Thad - 90%
Bogie - 80% (as wintermute put it, only because he may get a big offer, but I expect both him and Thad to be day 1 signings for us honestly)
DC- 70%
CoJo - 50% (I think DC is a better player, has better chemistry with the starters, and Holiday deserves the backup PG slot)
Tyreke - 20% (up to him imo; I think we give him another shot on a 1 year deal and it wouldn't hurt to have his expiring money to use in trade)
KOQ - 10% (I think he looks for minutes elsewhere this year)

2. What are your team needs and the overall short term goals of the team?

Better starting PG. The hope is that will be Holiday. Bring back DC as a stopgap and give Holiday more chances.

3. Is there any reason your coach may not be in place next year?

No

4. Who are you willing to trade?

Honestly, not much really. The guys who are under contract aren't going anywhere except I'd be fine moving Leaf or Mcdermott, but neither really have any value. Our pick should be in play too.
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#12 » by Wizop » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:22 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:In order to use max cap space to sign a Kemba Walker, we can maybe only bring back one of our own free agents, and only if they make less than $12m. Bring back Bojan = no max free agent (no Kemba). And no Thad.


which is why I'd rate the odds of signing any max free agent as under 10%. I don't see a deal coming that would keep us from bringing back Bojan, Thad, and CoJo.

JMichael tweeted not long ago (sorry couldn't find it to paste it here) that TJ Leaf was proving to be more on an inside player than the stretch 4 they thought he'd be. perhaps he's turning out to be a possible emergency 3rd center in which case we night not need KOQ although he's cheap. might depend upon what the draft gives us.
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#13 » by pacers33granger » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:27 pm

Wizop wrote:JMichael tweeted not long ago (sorry couldn't find it to paste it here) that TJ Leaf was proving to be more on an inside player than the stretch 4 they thought he'd be. perhaps he's turning out to be a possible emergency 3rd center in which case we night not need KOQ although he's cheap. might depend upon what the draft gives us.


This is a good point. He needed to bulk up and has been better because of it, but it's made his shot super flat. It may take him some time to get it back with the added muscle.
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#14 » by Wizop » Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:14 pm

pacers33granger wrote:but it's made his shot super flat.


saw Neal deGrasse Tyson at One National last year. one of the science things he talked about was the physics of a basketball shot. the more arc on a shot, the bigger the effective size of the hoop is. shooting off the backcourt also causes the ball to be falling making the hoop bigger. Myles has more arc on his shot that about anyone. it wouldn't hurt others to emulate that.
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#15 » by Ruaidri » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:22 pm

Young, Bogdanovic and Collisson, I expect all three back for around the same amount as they make now, maybe Bogdanovic gets a rise to 12 - 15m a year.

I expect Matthews or Evans back for around 10m.
We will look in de draft for forwards. We have 3 picks I believe.

Joseph will leave to make room for Holiday and Sumner.
Evans or Matthews will leave because Oladipo is back and both of them will want at least 20 min per game.
Kyle will maybe stay when he is satisfied with his roll, else he will move on and we will find another player like him.

that's what I expect, nothing spectacular, but stay good enough to be in the mix for a top seed in the East and maybe with improvement of the players we make an extra step. 60 wins would be a nice goal for next season!
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#16 » by DoubleEagle4 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:37 pm

Vorda wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:
Vorda wrote:


And why do we have Monta Ellis on salary???????


Basically, the Pacers waived him and teams had 48 hours to pick up his 2 year contract- which obviously didn't happen. Because of this, the Pacers owed him $11.2 million, which would have been his salary this year. However, since they waived him- it doesn't count towards the salary cap. In other words, they paid him $11 million so that they could get his salary off the books.

Not a bad gig for Monta lol.
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#17 » by Tom White » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:47 pm

Ruaidri wrote:Young, Bogdanovic and Collisson, I expect all three back for around the same amount as they make now, maybe Bogdanovic gets a rise to 12 - 15m a year.

I expect Matthews or Evans back for around 10m.
We will look in de draft for forwards. We have 3 picks I believe.

Joseph will leave to make room for Holiday and Sumner.
Evans or Matthews will leave because Oladipo is back and both of them will want at least 20 min per game.
Kyle will maybe stay when he is satisfied with his roll, else he will move on and we will find another player like him.

that's what I expect, nothing spectacular, but stay good enough to be in the mix for a top seed in the East and maybe with improvement of the players we make an extra step. 60 wins would be a nice goal for next season!


You expect Matthews back at around $10M yet then you say you expect him to leave due to playing time? Can't have both, you know.

It is also probable that Young, Bogie, and DC will each make more than you estimate. Especially Bogie.
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#18 » by Ruaidri » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:54 pm

Matthews or Evans. One of the two I expect back.

Who will pay more for Young and Collisson?
Bogie is also almost 30. So there will not be that much interest in him. Maybe a team will go crazy, but I don't expect it.
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#19 » by Wizop » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:27 pm

Ruaidri wrote:Joseph will leave to make room for Holiday and Sumner.


possible, but he's younger than DC and one of our better defenders. he also rebounds well for his position.
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Re: 2019 Off-Season Questions 

Post#20 » by pacers33granger » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:38 pm

Wizop wrote:
Ruaidri wrote:Joseph will leave to make room for Holiday and Sumner.


possible, but he's younger than DC and one of our better defenders. he also rebounds well for his position.


With Vic's health up in the air (and the potential of Evans not coming back), we're going to need distributors, which DC can be. CoJo simply cannot. We've also got a lot of streaky shooters as is and CoJo has been the streakiest of all of them this year.

I think DC comes cheaper as well. No one else will be offering him a starting position. He'll maybe get an offer for the MLE to be a backup elsewhere. I could see a team like Phoenix or Orlando overpaying for CoJo.

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