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How much is Bogey worth?

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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#21 » by Scoot McGroot » Thu Mar 7, 2019 3:17 pm

Kravitz wrote a piece on Bogey for The Athletic, today (subscription required):
https://theathletic.com/854246/2019/03/07/kravitz-croatian-sensation-bojan-bogdanovic-hasnt-been-americanized-but-hes-a-perfect-fit-in-indiana/

“Almost all the league knows I can shoot, so I wanted to prove something else. Those are the two things I tried hard to improve, my ball-handling and footwork on defense, and it’s paying off I’m trying to challenge myself to defend all those stars and the coach believes in me and that gives me the confidence to play well against them.’’

Said Bayno: “He’s not afraid of a challenge. He fights you in the post, he fights you for catches, he’s physical. He’s taking charges now, which I don’t know that he did his first year here. He’s challenging guys with the straight-up at the rim. I just can’t say enough good things about him.’’



He paused.

“I’m just praying we don’t lose him,” Bayno added.
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#22 » by Wizop » Thu Mar 7, 2019 6:28 pm

TheAthletic also has a new article on NBA teams playing two big men which includes several paragraphs on Turner and Sabonis.
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#23 » by Scoot McGroot » Thu Mar 7, 2019 9:30 pm

Wizop wrote:TheAthletic also has a new article on NBA teams playing two big men which includes several paragraphs on Turner and Sabonis.


Did I read that correctly? Writes two paragraphs and ends with essentially “but ignore my points in the article, the Pacers will have to trade Dom before extending him”?
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#24 » by Wizop » Fri Mar 8, 2019 1:37 am

Scoot McGroot wrote:
Wizop wrote:TheAthletic also has a new article on NBA teams playing two big men which includes several paragraphs on Turner and Sabonis.


Did I read that correctly? Writes two paragraphs and ends with essentially “but ignore my points in the article, the Pacers will have to trade Dom before extending him”?
I think that was only if they couldn't play together. more specifically only if we couldn't get them both starters minutes which as we've discussed elsewhere doesn't require both to start.

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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#25 » by Topofthekey » Fri Mar 8, 2019 10:06 am

Tomhomes33 wrote:
Ok smarthead..if Bogey walks Pacers will replace him with who? Not for 10mil..lets say 15-18mill..

Ok, lets' see:

Kelly Oubre, Kent Bazemore, Terrence Ross, Tomas Satoransky, Rudy Gay, Stanley Johnson, RHJ, MKG, Mario Hezonja

And if we get creative and shift Vic to PG:

Danny Green, JJ Reddick, Jeremy Lamb, Rodney Hood, Tyler Johnson, KCP

If somebody wants to overpay Bogie and offer him a fat contract, they can be my guest, and I'd hope it's not the Pacers; in fact, there are several names on those lists above that I'd actually consider signing over Bogie

I understand that Bogie has exceeded expectations, and that has probably earned him some goodwill with lots of Pacer fans, but it does not change the fact that he is an average-ish kind of player


“Almost all the league knows I can shoot, so I wanted to prove something else.

My God, this is exactly one of the things that really perplexes me about him; sometimes, it's as if he actively tries NOT to shoot the 3pt and instead attack the basket (and end up doing that hand-flailing, "Aaaiiihhh" thing)

One of the things that people like to mention when talking about Bogie is how great his 3pt shooting % is (43.1%! Wow! So efficient!)

Here's the thing though: Sabonis is shooting 57.1% 3pt; Oh wow, he's an even better shooter than Bogie!

Ok, I'm being snarky of course; but the point is, it doesn't matter how good his 3pt % is, have you realized that opponents sometimes DO NOT respect him at the 3pt line? It's not that they don't think that he can make the shot, it's just that Bogie doesn't shoot enough 3pts to be considered as a huge 3pt threat; every now and then, I'd see him catch the ball at the 3pt line, quite open, and the opponent would actually just dare him to shoot

And more often than not, he'd rather try to attack the basket, instead of doing what he should be doing best; it's like he's treating these two years as audition years, trying to prove to the other teams (his prospective future employers) that "Hey look, I can do more than just shoot the ball"

It's fine if he's actually pretty good at finishing at the rim, like say Doug, but he's just NOT, whenever he catches the ball, I'd rather he just shoot, but more often than not he goes for that AAIIHH play

In fact, I tried looking it up, and according to this https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/player-stat/three-point-field-goals-made , he ranks 49 in the league in 3pts made; what's the point of sporting a shiny 3pt shooting % when he's just not shooting and making it enough, we might as well just marvel at Sabonis' 3pt shooting %, same thing
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#26 » by Scoot McGroot » Fri Mar 8, 2019 1:13 pm

Topofthekey wrote:
Tomhomes33 wrote:
Ok smarthead..if Bogey walks Pacers will replace him with who? Not for 10mil..lets say 15-18mill..

Ok, lets' see:

Kelly Oubre, Kent Bazemore, Terrence Ross, Tomas Satoransky, Rudy Gay, Stanley Johnson, RHJ, MKG, Mario Hezonja

And if we get creative and shift Vic to PG:

Danny Green, JJ Reddick, Jeremy Lamb, Rodney Hood, Tyler Johnson, KCP

If somebody wants to overpay Bogie and offer him a fat contract, they can be my guest, and I'd hope it's not the Pacers; in fact, there are several names on those lists above that I'd actually consider signing over Bogie

I understand that Bogie has exceeded expectations, and that has probably earned him some goodwill with lots of Pacer fans, but it does not change the fact that he is an average-ish kind of player


“Almost all the league knows I can shoot, so I wanted to prove something else.

My God, this is exactly one of the things that really perplexes me about him; sometimes, it's as if he actively tries NOT to shoot the 3pt and instead attack the basket (and end up doing that hand-flailing, "Aaaiiihhh" thing)

One of the things that people like to mention when talking about Bogie is how great his 3pt shooting % is (43.1%! Wow! So efficient!)

Here's the thing though: Sabonis is shooting 57.1% 3pt; Oh wow, he's an even better shooter than Bogie!

Ok, I'm being snarky of course; but the point is, it doesn't matter how good his 3pt % is, have you realized that opponents sometimes DO NOT respect him at the 3pt line? It's not that they don't think that he can make the shot, it's just that Bogie doesn't shoot enough 3pts to be considered as a huge 3pt threat; every now and then, I'd see him catch the ball at the 3pt line, quite open, and the opponent would actually just dare him to shoot

And more often than not, he'd rather try to attack the basket, instead of doing what he should be doing best; it's like he's treating these two years as audition years, trying to prove to the other teams (his prospective future employers) that "Hey look, I can do more than just shoot the ball"

It's fine if he's actually pretty good at finishing at the rim, like say Doug, but he's just NOT, whenever he catches the ball, I'd rather he just shoot, but more often than not he goes for that AAIIHH play

In fact, I tried looking it up, and according to this https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/player-stat/three-point-field-goals-made , he ranks 49 in the league in 3pts made; what's the point of sporting a shiny 3pt shooting % when he's just not shooting and making it enough, we might as well just marvel at Sabonis' 3pt shooting %, same thing



He’s shooting 43% a night on almost 5 attempts per night. That’s pretty good and pretty effective. He’s also shooting 54% on shots inside the arc overall and finishing at almost 67% at the room. Also, this season, Collison and Bogey are 1st and 2nd in the league respectively in corner 3 pt %. Yes. Dom is shooting 57% from 3 this year. On 17 attempts. There’s a difference.

It sounds like your issue with him is he’s “too well rounded” and that you’d prefer a 3 pt only specialist. We have one in Doug. We don’t have enough creators to get him the ball in the corner to stand there and do nothing else so we need them to create and run baseline and attack enough to then keep the 3 pt shot open.
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#27 » by Topofthekey » Fri Mar 8, 2019 4:26 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:He’s shooting 43% a night on almost 5 attempts per night. That’s pretty good and pretty effective.

He ranks 77 for 3PA, at 4.7 per game

That was the point that I was trying to make: at one glance he appears to be a great shooter, shooting 43% on 3pts, but when he's only attempting 4.7 per game, ranking at 77, the impact of his shooting is lessened by a huge degree

The Domas example was extreme, but the idea is the same - on paper Domas shoots a stellar 3pt %, but as you pointed out, it matters very little as he only attempts a handful of them throughout the season

To be really considered a 3pt threat, players not only need to make them on a decent clip, they need to be willing to take them as well, which Bogie is so far lacking in - so when people point out that he's a great shooter, they really should keep in mind the limited number of 3s he attempts, to put things into better perspective - I'm not saying he's terrible, just not as great as his numbers suggest at one glance


Scoot McGroot wrote:It sounds like your issue with him is he’s “too well rounded” and that you’d prefer a 3 pt only specialist.

Not quite, actually; Bogie's defense is still average at best, and he doesn't finish at the rim nearly as well as Doug, so I won't call him "too well-rounded"; more like, he's trying to APPEAR to be well-rounded, by putting less emphasis on shooting 3pts (his supposed strength); I'm ok with him taking those mid range shots, but I just wish he'd attack the basket a little less and play to his strength instead

As for him being a scorer in general, I'm not sure whether anyone else has noticed, the bulk of his points actually comes during stretches of the game when both teams are sort of cruising a bit, trading baskets; it's good that's he's giving the team his points every game, but it'd be great if some of those points came during crunch time

To put it into context: he ranks 49 in PPG, but when you filter for 4th quarter PPG, he drops all the way to 94
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#28 » by Pacers_Freak » Fri Mar 8, 2019 4:30 pm

Topofthekey wrote:
Tomhomes33 wrote:
Ok smarthead..if Bogey walks Pacers will replace him with who? Not for 10mil..lets say 15-18mill..

Ok, lets' see:

Kelly Oubre, Kent Bazemore, Terrence Ross, Tomas Satoransky, Rudy Gay, Stanley Johnson, RHJ, MKG, Mario Hezonja

And if we get creative and shift Vic to PG:

Danny Green, JJ Reddick, Jeremy Lamb, Rodney Hood, Tyler Johnson, KCP

If somebody wants to overpay Bogie and offer him a fat contract, they can be my guest, and I'd hope it's not the Pacers; in fact, there are several names on those lists above that I'd actually consider signing over Bogie

I understand that Bogie has exceeded expectations, and that has probably earned him some goodwill with lots of Pacer fans, but it does not change the fact that he is an average-ish kind of player


“Almost all the league knows I can shoot, so I wanted to prove something else.

My God, this is exactly one of the things that really perplexes me about him; sometimes, it's as if he actively tries NOT to shoot the 3pt and instead attack the basket (and end up doing that hand-flailing, "Aaaiiihhh" thing)

One of the things that people like to mention when talking about Bogie is how great his 3pt shooting % is (43.1%! Wow! So efficient!)

Here's the thing though: Sabonis is shooting 57.1% 3pt; Oh wow, he's an even better shooter than Bogie!

Ok, I'm being snarky of course; but the point is, it doesn't matter how good his 3pt % is, have you realized that opponents sometimes DO NOT respect him at the 3pt line? It's not that they don't think that he can make the shot, it's just that Bogie doesn't shoot enough 3pts to be considered as a huge 3pt threat; every now and then, I'd see him catch the ball at the 3pt line, quite open, and the opponent would actually just dare him to shoot

And more often than not, he'd rather try to attack the basket, instead of doing what he should be doing best; it's like he's treating these two years as audition years, trying to prove to the other teams (his prospective future employers) that "Hey look, I can do more than just shoot the ball"

It's fine if he's actually pretty good at finishing at the rim, like say Doug, but he's just NOT, whenever he catches the ball, I'd rather he just shoot, but more often than not he goes for that AAIIHH play

In fact, I tried looking it up, and according to this https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/player-stat/three-point-field-goals-made , he ranks 49 in the league in 3pts made; what's the point of sporting a shiny 3pt shooting % when he's just not shooting and making it enough, we might as well just marvel at Sabonis' 3pt shooting %, same thing


No offense but I would not prefer on human on your lists over Bogey. Maybe Lamb because he is younger. But that's it. I mean the likes of Rodney Hood? C'mon....
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#29 » by Scoot McGroot » Fri Mar 8, 2019 6:04 pm

Topofthekey wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:He’s shooting 43% a night on almost 5 attempts per night. That’s pretty good and pretty effective.

He ranks 77 for 3PA, at 4.7 per game

That was the point that I was trying to make: at one glance he appears to be a great shooter, shooting 43% on 3pts, but when he's only attempting 4.7 per game, ranking at 77, the impact of his shooting is lessened by a huge degree

The Domas example was extreme, but the idea is the same - on paper Domas shoots a stellar 3pt %, but as you pointed out, it matters very little as he only attempts a handful of them throughout the season


Absolutely extreme. And not the same. And not at all what I pointed out. A guy who literally only shoots the 3 if absolutely abandoned at the arc or when the shot clock is winding down, well less than once a game, like Domas, is clearly a guy who "lessens the impact of his shooting". A guy like Bojan who is simply a good shooter every where (67% inside of 3', 37% from 3-10', 44.8% from 10-16', 47% from 16'-3pt arc, and 43% from beyond the arc) should shoot everywhere and simply get the best shot they can take at any point. I'm not sure why we're punishing the guy from shooting well everywhere.

Topofthekey wrote:To be really considered a 3pt threat, players not only need to make them on a decent clip, they need to be willing to take them as well, which Bogie is so far lacking in - so when people point out that he's a great shooter, they really should keep in mind the limited number of 3s he attempts, to put things into better perspective - I'm not saying he's terrible, just not as great as his numbers suggest at one glance


He shoots them at a pretty busy rate, just not as one of the busiest 3 pt shooters in the league. Is the issue that you simply would prefer a 3 pt only shooting specialist at SF? If so, guys like Hood, Lamb, etc, aren't at all good 3 pt shooters, and poor shooters overall by most all metrics. Why not target the Joe Harris' of the world? Maybe sign JJ Reddick and trade for Joe Harris, keep Doug, and if you want the 3 pt specialists on the wing, just run Oladipo/Reddick and Harris/McDermott out there?

Topofthekey wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:It sounds like your issue with him is he’s “too well rounded” and that you’d prefer a 3 pt only specialist.

Not quite, actually; Bogie's defense is still average at best, and he doesn't finish at the rim nearly as well as Doug, so I won't call him "too well-rounded"; more like, he's trying to APPEAR to be well-rounded, by putting less emphasis on shooting 3pts (his supposed strength); I'm ok with him taking those mid range shots, but I just wish he'd attack the basket a little less and play to his strength instead

As for him being a scorer in general, I'm not sure whether anyone else has noticed, the bulk of his points actually comes during stretches of the game when both teams are sort of cruising a bit, trading baskets; it's good that's he's giving the team his points every game, but it'd be great if some of those points came during crunch time

To put it into context: he ranks 49 in PPG, but when you filter for 4th quarter PPG, he drops all the way to 94


He produces, just not how you would prefer. He shoots 66.9% from inside 3'. You want him to finish like Doug at 69.9% inside of 3 feet. I'd be intrigued how much of that is easy backdoor cuts while playing completely off ball (and thus, not really finishing, as there's no defender to finish through) against Bojan getting to the rim. And if Bojan's "not willing" to shoot the 3, why is he shooting it 4.7 times per game? And you're bothered that he scores points, but just not when you'd prefer he does?

I'd love to have JJ Reddick. The only problem is, he wouldn't replace Bojan. He'd replace Tyreke. He's a SG. Bojan plays the 3, and sometimes even the 4. Would I prefer a "better" SF? Kawhi, Durant, etc? Absolutely. Are they gettable? Nope.

But ultimately, Bojan does a lot of things from average to well. Much of basketball is minimizing mistakes and weaknesses. I'm not sure why we're punishing him or looking at him less because he doesn't hurt us anywhere? Could he shoot 10+ 3's a night? Yeah. But, after a couple weeks of it, let's see how he's guarded and what kind of percentages he shoots after defender's adjust.
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#30 » by Topofthekey » Sat Mar 9, 2019 3:00 am

Scoot McGroot wrote:He shoots them at a pretty busy rate, just not as one of the busiest 3 pt shooters in the league.

Like I said, he ranks 77th in the league in 3PA

If you consider that as a "pretty busy rate", great, opinions differ, no problem. But for me, that's far from being busy at all, and it makes very little sense for someone who is supposedly a good 3pt shooter to rank so low on the list, especially when I see him hesitating to take a 3 pointer even when he's open


Scoot McGroot wrote:Is the issue that you simply would prefer a 3 pt only shooting specialist at SF? If so, guys like Hood, Lamb, etc, aren't at all good 3 pt shooters, and poor shooters overall by most all metrics. Why not target the Joe Harris' of the world? Maybe sign JJ Reddick and trade for Joe Harris, keep Doug, and if you want the 3 pt specialists on the wing, just run Oladipo/Reddick and Harris/McDermott out there?

There's a difference between saying Bogie doesn't shoot enough 3s (when he's supposedly so good at it), and wanting him to be a 3pt only specialist

Here, take a look at this:

Image

According to NBA advanced stats, he's shooting 54% from 2pt range, and 43.1% from 3pt range - let's assume he takes a 100 shots of each, and perform some simple calculation

Making 54/100 2pt shots nets us 108 points, but making 43/100 3pt shots nets us 129 points - that is a staggering 21 points difference on the same amount of shots taken

The conclusion is a no brainer: he needs to shoot more 3 pointers as opposed to 2pt shots

Unfortunately, as you can see, 62.7% of his shots are coming from 2pt range, vs 37.3% from 3pt range - ideally those two numbers should be swapped, or at the very least be about even

In fact, let's break down his shooting a little bit further:

Image

As you can see, his eFG% (effective field goal %) is WAY better in catch and shoot situations. In fact, when he dribbles and then tries shooting pull ups, his eFG% drops all the way from 66.6% to 47.6% - that is a HUGE drop

Now, 47.6% is still not terrible (though it is below average), and I have no problem with him mixing it up once in a while, to throw the defense off their rhythm a bit, but for the love of God, I wish he'd just accept that he functions best as a spot up shooter, especially from 3pt range

In fact, look at this:

Image

Take what you want from it, but for me, it's just frown inducing when he tries to dribble and make things happen

And finally, here:

Image

The longer he hangs on to the ball, the worse his shooting % becomes

Let's be clear: Bogie functions best as a spot up shooter, ideally from 3pt range, and as I said, I have no problem with him trying other things; however when the vast majority of his shots comes in the latter category, that is the problem; as we learned, whenever he over-dribbles or hangs on to the ball longer than he should, things do not end as well as they could have


Scoot McGroot wrote:I'm not sure why we're punishing him or looking at him less because he doesn't hurt us anywhere?

I'm not sure what I am doing is punishing him; I have never said that he's a terrible player, the worst ever, or that he needs to be traded immediately or benched, or anything like that

I basically feel he's an average-ish player, not as great as some here makes him out to be, but as you said certainly also not as terrible as to hurt the team - he's just not someone I'd overpay to retain (I'm ok with him being paid in the $10-12m range, but more than $15m is an overpay for me)

Oh, and as I mentioned, he ranks 49th in PPG, but drops all the way to 94th in 4th qtr scoring - I wish he'd contribute more when it matters
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#31 » by Tomhomes33 » Sat Mar 9, 2019 3:24 am

Pacers_Freak wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:
Tomhomes33 wrote:
Ok smarthead..if Bogey walks Pacers will replace him with who? Not for 10mil..lets say 15-18mill..

Ok, lets' see:

Kelly Oubre, Kent Bazemore, Terrence Ross, Tomas Satoransky, Rudy Gay, Stanley Johnson, RHJ, MKG, Mario Hezonja

And if we get creative and shift Vic to PG:

Danny Green, JJ Reddick, Jeremy Lamb, Rodney Hood, Tyler Johnson, KCP

If somebody wants to overpay Bogie and offer him a fat contract, they can be my guest, and I'd hope it's not the Pacers; in fact, there are several names on those lists above that I'd actually consider signing over Bogie

I understand that Bogie has exceeded expectations, and that has probably earned him some goodwill with lots of Pacer fans, but it does not change the fact that he is an average-ish kind of player


“Almost all the league knows I can shoot, so I wanted to prove something else.

My God, this is exactly one of the things that really perplexes me about him; sometimes, it's as if he actively tries NOT to shoot the 3pt and instead attack the basket (and end up doing that hand-flailing, "Aaaiiihhh" thing)

One of the things that people like to mention when talking about Bogie is how great his 3pt shooting % is (43.1%! Wow! So efficient!)

Here's the thing though: Sabonis is shooting 57.1% 3pt; Oh wow, he's an even better shooter than Bogie!

Ok, I'm being snarky of course; but the point is, it doesn't matter how good his 3pt % is, have you realized that opponents sometimes DO NOT respect him at the 3pt line? It's not that they don't think that he can make the shot, it's just that Bogie doesn't shoot enough 3pts to be considered as a huge 3pt threat; every now and then, I'd see him catch the ball at the 3pt line, quite open, and the opponent would actually just dare him to shoot

And more often than not, he'd rather try to attack the basket, instead of doing what he should be doing best; it's like he's treating these two years as audition years, trying to prove to the other teams (his prospective future employers) that "Hey look, I can do more than just shoot the ball"

It's fine if he's actually pretty good at finishing at the rim, like say Doug, but he's just NOT, whenever he catches the ball, I'd rather he just shoot, but more often than not he goes for that AAIIHH play

In fact, I tried looking it up, and according to this https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/player-stat/three-point-field-goals-made , he ranks 49 in the league in 3pts made; what's the point of sporting a shiny 3pt shooting % when he's just not shooting and making it enough, we might as well just marvel at Sabonis' 3pt shooting %, same thing


No offense but I would not prefer on human on your lists over Bogey. Maybe Lamb because he is younger. But that's it. I mean the likes of Rodney Hood? C'mon....


EXACTLY MY POINT HIS LIST IS LAUGHABLE..MARIO HEZONJA? Rodney Hood..i mean all these players are inferior to Bogie..give me a break..Besides, like it or not Bogie will be resigned I am like 99%sure Pacers are smart enough not to lose him, and I believe there will be mutual understanding both sides happy. Most likely it will be 3yrs/55mill with 4year team option.
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#32 » by Scoot McGroot » Sat Mar 9, 2019 4:40 am

Topofthekey wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:He shoots them at a pretty busy rate, just not as one of the busiest 3 pt shooters in the league.

Like I said, he ranks 77th in the league in 3PA

If you consider that as a "pretty busy rate", great, opinions differ, no problem. But for me, that's far from being busy at all, and it makes very little sense for someone who is supposedly a good 3pt shooter to rank so low on the list, especially when I see him hesitating to take a 3 pointer even when he's open


There's 511 players in the NBA this year. He's essentially in the top 15% in 3PA.
Topofthekey wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:Is the issue that you simply would prefer a 3 pt only shooting specialist at SF? If so, guys like Hood, Lamb, etc, aren't at all good 3 pt shooters, and poor shooters overall by most all metrics. Why not target the Joe Harris' of the world? Maybe sign JJ Reddick and trade for Joe Harris, keep Doug, and if you want the 3 pt specialists on the wing, just run Oladipo/Reddick and Harris/McDermott out there?

There's a difference between saying Bogie doesn't shoot enough 3s (when he's supposedly so good at it), and wanting him to be a 3pt only specialist

Here, take a look at this:

Image

According to NBA advanced stats, he's shooting 54% from 2pt range, and 43.1% from 3pt range - let's assume he takes a 100 shots of each, and perform some simple calculation

Making 54/100 2pt shots nets us 108 points, but making 43/100 3pt shots nets us 129 points - that is a staggering 21 points difference on the same amount of shots taken

The conclusion is a no brainer: he needs to shoot more 3 pointers as opposed to 2pt shots

Unfortunately, as you can see, 62.7% of his shots are coming from 2pt range, vs 37.3% from 3pt range - ideally those two numbers should be swapped, or at the very least be about even

In fact, let's break down his shooting a little bit further:

Image

As you can see, his eFG% (effective field goal %) is WAY better in catch and shoot situations. In fact, when he dribbles and then tries shooting pull ups, his eFG% drops all the way from 66.6% to 47.6% - that is a HUGE drop

Now, 47.6% is still not terrible (though it is below average), and I have no problem with him mixing it up once in a while, to throw the defense off their rhythm a bit, but for the love of God, I wish he'd just accept that he functions best as a spot up shooter, especially from 3pt range

In fact, look at this:

Image

Take what you want from it, but for me, it's just frown inducing when he tries to dribble and make things happen

And finally, here:

Image

The longer he hangs on to the ball, the worse his shooting % becomes

Let's be clear: Bogie functions best as a spot up shooter, ideally from 3pt range, and as I said, I have no problem with him trying other things; however when the vast majority of his shots comes in the latter category, that is the problem; as we learned, whenever he over-dribbles or hangs on to the ball longer than he should, things do not end as well as they could have


This is good info and makes for fair points. And I agree. It'd be awesome if he could just spot up every single time the ball came to him and he was wide open. Unfortunately, that's not always how our offensive system, and the game of basketball works. Sometime, guys have to dribble and create a little. If we could turn Collison into an affordable Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, or even Jrue Holiday, somebody who could create like crazy and just toss easy shots around the arc to his teammates for them to just fire up, I'd love to. We just don't have that, though.

Topofthekey wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:I'm not sure why we're punishing him or looking at him less because he doesn't hurt us anywhere?

I'm not sure what I am doing is punishing him; I have never said that he's a terrible player, the worst ever, or that he needs to be traded immediately or benched, or anything like that

I basically feel he's an average-ish player, not as great as some here makes him out to be, but as you said certainly also not as terrible as to hurt the team - he's just not someone I'd overpay to retain (I'm ok with him being paid in the $10-12m range, but more than $15m is an overpay for me)

Oh, and as I mentioned, he ranks 49th in PPG, but drops all the way to 94th in 4th qtr scoring - I wish he'd contribute more when it matters


Well, life could always be better right? I guess he could score in the 4th more instead of mid game. Then, we'd be further down in the 4th and need him to score more in the 4th? Doesn't this also mean that he scores a very low amount of garbage time buckets (Bobby Sura or Ricky Davis time, if you will)? That every point he scores is early enough to make a difference? I also wonder if his numbers in this category are so low since we essentially put the ball in the hands of Oladipo in the 4th throughout much of the first half of the season?



Ultimately, you may be right. But, I have a suspicion that if Bojan improved in all the ways you wanted him to, I think he'd be, like, Kevin Durant? I don't mean that as an insult, but he'd essentially be a totally well rounded player. No flaws. Scores when you want him to. Automatic. Top defender. I mean, if he was that, he'd be a max contract player, and pick his spot he wants to play? We only really can have this discussion as to whether or not we re-sign him since he has a few flaws. I can see an argument possibly for adding a guy like JJ Reddick or Danny Green instead of him. We might even save a few bucks (though I'm not sure with the way I imagine money will be spent so crazy this summer). But I definitely wouldn't prioritize guys that haven't even proven yet that they can contribute in any meaningful way like Hood, Stanley Johnson, Lamb, MKG, Hezonja, or Oubre. And guys like Satoransky (restricted free agent), RHJ (restricted free agent), Bazemore (under contract, have to trade for him and give up someone), Ross (more SG), Gay (age...more PF now?) have other issues too and have issues with trying to sign them. I'm not saying we HAVE to re-sign Bojan at all costs. Just, when it comes down to it, he's been pretty darned good, the grass isn't always greener, Kevin Durant ain't walking through that door, etc. Ultimately, in our price range, with our needs, and what we look for, I'm not sure there's a realistic option out there that's better than Bogey. He's likely the top SF in the market after the top, undeniable dogs like Durant, Kawhi, Tobias (PF?), Middleton, etc.
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#33 » by Wizop » Sat Mar 9, 2019 1:46 pm

McM stresses ball movement. we strive for good shots and balanced scoring. Bogie's volume stats reflect playing within our system. why punish him for playing the way we want him to?

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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#34 » by winter_mute_13 » Sat Mar 9, 2019 1:47 pm

First, on whether Bogey should shoot more 3's. It's not just Bojan, it's the whole team. The Pacers collectively are 4th in the league in 3P percentage, but 29th in 3P attempts. And it's not just this season either, it's been like that since Vogel's time. I have to think it's due to the offensive philosophy of the coaching staff. For better or worse, the Pacers are just not a D'antoni style team that generates a lot of 3P attempts.

In fairness to McMillan and staff though, they've been trying. The Pacers' 3P attempts have crept up from 23.0/game in Nate's first season, to 24.5/g last season, and now to 25.8/g. It's just that the rest of the league have been bombing away from 3 at an ever faster rate. Consider that the league leading Rockets are taking 44.6 3PA/g, that is, more than half their shot attempts are from 3. That's pretty crazy.

As to Bogey becoming more well-rounded as an offensive player. I take that to be a very good thing. Yes, long range shooting is his best skill, but he's not a Steph Curry who thanks to his superb ball handling and ultra quick release can bomb away from anywhere on the court. For Bogey, it's important to use his threat of driving to open up space for his shooting. And since Dipo's injury, the Pacers have turned more and more to Bogey in the ballhandler role, meaning he gets the ball facing up and then he has to decide whether to shoot, drive, or pass. To his credit, he's doing pretty well at this and that's going to translate into a lucrative new contract in the offseason. I hope it's with the Pacers, but the market for SFs is such that it won't surprise me if he gets a mega offer from someone.

As others have pointed out, Bojan is very likely the best SF on the market after the big names like Kawhi, Durant, Klay, Butler, Middleton. We might end up signing a cheaper guy for money reasons (I hope not), but it will be a definite downgrade.
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#35 » by Wizop » Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:29 pm

FWIW TV ads promoting Pacers Sixers game used Bogie"s picture.

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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#36 » by Scoot McGroot » Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:23 pm

Topofthekey wrote:According to NBA advanced stats, he's shooting 54% from 2pt range, and 43.1% from 3pt range - let's assume he takes a 100 shots of each, and perform some simple calculation

Making 54/100 2pt shots nets us 108 points, but making 43/100 3pt shots nets us 129 points - that is a staggering 21 points difference on the same amount of shots taken

The conclusion is a no brainer: he needs to shoot more 3 pointers as opposed to 2pt shots

Unfortunately, as you can see, 62.7% of his shots are coming from 2pt range, vs 37.3% from 3pt range - ideally those two numbers should be swapped, or at the very least be about even


I wanted to separate this out and support the concept. Obviously, the most efficient shot in basketball is the 3 pt shot, followed up by a layup/dunk (or vice versa? I can't remember, but it's close). Ideally, we'd prefer our guys to do only those two things. It provides both the most safety followed by the most upside. But, this is a game theory that has to be embraced by the coaching staff. Mike D'Antoni has been one of the biggest preachers of this in the last 15 years. Before that, the ABA at large embraced the theory of 3 pt or dunk.

I think Bojan would embrace this if it was what was asked of him by Nate, and if Nate could even embrace it. Nate's only barely come around on offensive systems and shooting 3's though, since his Portland days.

I think this argument is, to me, more of a wish to hire a true offensive coach to implement a system that puts all our guys in the best situations to succeed.
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#37 » by pacers33granger » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:27 pm

Topofthekey wrote:
Kelly Oubre, Kent Bazemore, Terrence Ross, Tomas Satoransky, Rudy Gay, Stanley Johnson, RHJ, MKG, Mario Hezonja


Basically all of those guys are downgrades and some of them are simply terrible. Ross/Reddick are the only ones who are on par with him.

Topofthekey wrote:And if we get creative and shift Vic to PG:

Danny Green, JJ Reddick, Jeremy Lamb, Rodney Hood, Tyler Johnson, KCP



And shifting Vic to PG after his injury is a recipe for disaster in so many ways.
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#38 » by winter_mute_13 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:00 pm

> Ross

(OT) Speaking of Ross, I wouldn't be surprised if the Pacers did sign him. He had a couple of strong games against the Pacers this season. But would depend on how FA shakes out obviously.
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#39 » by pacers33granger » Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:58 pm

I'm skeptical on Ross. He's super streaky and we've had real bad luck with those types of players. I also think it takes more to sign him than I would be comfortable with.
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Re: How much is Bogey worth? 

Post#40 » by Scoot McGroot » Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:08 pm

pacers33granger wrote:I'm skeptical on Ross. He's super streaky and we've had real bad luck with those types of players. I also think it takes more to sign him than I would be comfortable with.


Agreed, but if he wasn't super streaky, we'd never have a chance to sign him. He'd be a star kind of player. In fact, most guys that are major rotation types are essentially consistency away from being a major piece that would draw more money than we could afford.

But, otherwise, his positional flexibility of truly being able to play the 2 and 3 would raise his value a bit, too.

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