Scoot McGroot wrote:He shoots them at a pretty busy rate, just not as one of the busiest 3 pt shooters in the league.
Like I said, he ranks 77th in the league in 3PA
If you consider that as a "pretty busy rate", great, opinions differ, no problem. But for me, that's far from being busy at all, and it makes very little sense for someone who is supposedly a good 3pt shooter to rank so low on the list, especially when I see him hesitating to take a 3 pointer even when he's open
Scoot McGroot wrote:Is the issue that you simply would prefer a 3 pt only shooting specialist at SF? If so, guys like Hood, Lamb, etc, aren't at all good 3 pt shooters, and poor shooters overall by most all metrics. Why not target the Joe Harris' of the world? Maybe sign JJ Reddick and trade for Joe Harris, keep Doug, and if you want the 3 pt specialists on the wing, just run Oladipo/Reddick and Harris/McDermott out there?
There's a difference between saying Bogie doesn't shoot enough 3s (when he's supposedly so good at it), and wanting him to be a 3pt only specialist
Here, take a look at this:
According to NBA advanced stats, he's shooting 54% from 2pt range, and 43.1% from 3pt range - let's assume he takes a 100 shots of each, and perform some simple calculation
Making 54/100 2pt shots nets us 108 points, but making 43/100 3pt shots nets us 129 points - that is a staggering 21 points difference on the same amount of shots taken
The conclusion is a no brainer: he needs to shoot more 3 pointers as opposed to 2pt shots
Unfortunately, as you can see, 62.7% of his shots are coming from 2pt range, vs 37.3% from 3pt range - ideally those two numbers should be swapped, or at the very least be about even
In fact, let's break down his shooting a little bit further:
As you can see, his eFG% (effective field goal %) is WAY better in catch and shoot situations. In fact, when he dribbles and then tries shooting pull ups, his eFG% drops all the way from 66.6% to 47.6% - that is a HUGE drop
Now, 47.6% is still not terrible (though it is below average), and I have no problem with him mixing it up once in a while, to throw the defense off their rhythm a bit, but for the love of God, I wish he'd just accept that he functions best as a spot up shooter, especially from 3pt range
In fact, look at this:
Take what you want from it, but for me, it's just frown inducing when he tries to dribble and make things happen
And finally, here:
The longer he hangs on to the ball, the worse his shooting % becomes
Let's be clear: Bogie functions best as a spot up shooter, ideally from 3pt range, and as I said, I have no problem with him trying other things; however when the vast majority of his shots comes in the latter category, that is the problem; as we learned, whenever he over-dribbles or hangs on to the ball longer than he should, things do not end as well as they could have
Scoot McGroot wrote:I'm not sure why we're punishing him or looking at him less because he doesn't hurt us anywhere?
I'm not sure what I am doing is punishing him; I have never said that he's a terrible player, the worst ever, or that he needs to be traded immediately or benched, or anything like that
I basically feel he's an average-ish player, not as great as some here makes him out to be, but as you said certainly also not as terrible as to hurt the team - he's just not someone I'd overpay to retain (I'm ok with him being paid in the $10-12m range, but more than $15m is an overpay for me)
Oh, and as I mentioned, he ranks 49th in PPG, but drops all the way to 94th in 4th qtr scoring - I wish he'd contribute more when it matters