RealGM

Pacers won 48 games last season, and betting sites have pegged the Pacers at 46.5. I thought that was low to be honest unless they don't expect Oladipo to be back by Christmas, and then maybe think he'll be rusty for much of the second half of the season. This model that CBS Sports uses though, has Indiana winning 55 games next season.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2019-20-nba-win-totals-odds-predictions-advanced-computer-model-picks-over-46-5-wins-for-indiana-pacers/

Thoughts?

With prediction models, I like to see how they did in previous years to judge how well this year's projection would go.

In my experience, most prediction models are a mixed bag at best.

I'll predict around 52-54 games

Grang33r wrote:Pacers won 48 games last season, and betting sites have pegged the Pacers at 46.5. I thought that was low to be honest unless they don't expect Oladipo to be back by Christmas, and then maybe think he'll be rusty for much of the second half of the season. This model that CBS Sports uses though, has Indiana winning 55 games next season.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2019-20-nba-win-totals-odds-predictions-advanced-computer-model-picks-over-46-5-wins-for-indiana-pacers/

Thoughts?

Which betting sites are those? I might be interested in a small wager

The betting sites are probably basing their opinions on this -> https://www.nba.com/article/2019/06/21/oladipo-likely-out-until-december-or-january

When KP was interviewed during SL, he didn't say anything to contradict this article. So, I expect Dipo to miss at least half the season and then probably be a bit rusty.

Therefore, 55 wins are a pretty long shot, in my opinion. I believe that we'll be in the 44-48 range which keeps us somewhere in the top 6.

I'm considering betting on the over. Not a huge amount.

Nuntius wrote:The betting sites are probably basing their opinions on .
..

betting sites try to balance their book. period. they are predicting the number of bets not the number of wins.

Sent from my phone.

Wizop wrote:

Nuntius wrote:The betting sites are probably basing their opinions on .
..

betting sites try to balance their book. period. they are predicting the number of bets not the number of wins.

Sent from my phone.

Yeah, that's true.

They could win 55 games mostly depends on the start they get off to without Victor.

Not going to happen. There is usually only 3-4 teams each season winning above 55 games. Pacers with Dipo or without are not Top 5 team in the NBA.

55 is within range, though not easy of course

They were actually on course to win 55 games last season, till Vic got injured

I mean if you look at the changes going into next season:

-Vic is out (this is of course the single biggest factor)
-lost Thad's defense

But

+Lamb most likely is better than Tyreke in the same role
+Warren should be better than Bogie in the same role
+Brogdon is definitely overall an upgrade over DC

So if you consider everything a wash, then they have shot at duplicating last season's success, the earlier part of the season anyway

Plus there is the wild card of a Myles-Domas pairing

At worse it's not much better than the Myles-Thad pairing, at best it works out marvelous and both of them take a step forward as players

And finally there's Goga: at worse he takes Kyle's role last season, some garbage minutes here and there, at best he turns out to be an overlooked gem and becomes a better version of Myles

Topofthekey wrote:And finally there's Goga: at worse he takes Kyle's role last season, some garbage minutes here and there, at best he turns out to be an overlooked gem and becomes a better version of Myles

If that happens, it probably won't be in his first year at age 20.