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Justin Holiday off-season?

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Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#1 » by Scoot McGroot » Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:44 pm

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As our only free agent of major note, seems like it wouldn’t hurt to have a general thread for him.
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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#2 » by Wizop » Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:03 am

Only issue is whether his deal will limit any other signings.

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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#3 » by Topofthekey » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:27 am

Seems like a no brainer bringing him back, he was among the more productive players off the bench, wasn't he

Main issue is still lack of playing time

With Justin, Aaron, Doug, TJM, Sumner, Goga, and eventually Lamb all fighting for backup minutes, someone's bound to be underutilized and left rotting on the bench, again
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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#4 » by Scoot McGroot » Sun Nov 8, 2020 2:46 pm

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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#5 » by Topofthekey » Sun Nov 8, 2020 3:54 pm

As much as I'd love to see Justin re-sign, you can't justify paying the luxury tax in order to sign him

If the Knicks choose to offer him the full MLE (around $9.3m), matching that (and then filling out the rest of the roster) will unfortunately put the team over the luxury threshold

Assuming that Pacers deem it worthwhile retaining Justin Holiday at the full MLE, the most obvious way to do that is to find a taker for Leaf's contract, perhaps tacking on a few 2RPs as incentive, and then filling the roster with undrafted players or minimum salary guys

Alternatively, Pacers could pursue a trade where they shave just enough money to stay under the luxury threshold, instead of just dumping Leaf outright

Other than that, I don't see how Pacers can retain Justin Holiday, other than praying the Knicks (or another team) don't come close to offering him the full MLE

Either that, or hope that he's willing to take a discount to remain with the Pacers (highly unlikely)
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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#6 » by Scoot McGroot » Sun Nov 8, 2020 4:09 pm

Topofthekey wrote:As much as I'd love to see Justin re-sign, you can't justify paying the luxury tax in order to sign him

If the Knicks choose to offer him the full MLE (around $9.3m), matching that (and then filling out the rest of the roster) will unfortunately put the team over the luxury threshold

Assuming that Pacers deem it worthwhile retaining Justin Holiday at the full MLE, the most obvious way to do that is to find a taker for Leaf's contract, perhaps tacking on a few 2RPs as incentive, and then filling the roster with undrafted players or minimum salary guys

Alternatively, Pacers could pursue a trade where they shave just enough money to stay under the luxury threshold, instead of just dumping Leaf outright

Other than that, I don't see how Pacers can retain Justin Holiday, other than praying the Knicks (or another team) don't come close to offering him the full MLE

Either that, or hope that he's willing to take a discount to remain with the Pacers (highly unlikely)



Oh, we’re not paying the luxury tax. Hard stop.

Yeah, likely revolves around dumping Leafs salary, or worst case, stretch waiving him. Dump him outright and you have around $12m in space under the tax to fill 4 vacant roster spots. Stretch waive him and you’re at just under $10m for 4 roster spots.

With Justin, you might be able to save some money per year if you’re willing to go longer on the contract. He’s never had a multi year deal, so stability would mean a lot, and trust of the front office too. Ideally, you’d have room to use up to the full MLE, but shave off just enough to use to sign a 2nd round pick to a 3-4 year deal with non guaranteed and team options (a vet minimum can only be used for up to 2 years, and anything longer requires cap space or an exception). Then, give him the rest. It would turn a $9.8m-ish MLE into an $8.8-8.9m-ish salary for Justin, and the rest to a 2nd rounder to replace Leaf. Say you do a McDermott for Mike Scott and a good 2nd, you’ve saved $2+m and got a 2nd that could net a usable player in the 2nd. Being back either Alize or Jakarr and a vet minimum on the wings.
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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#7 » by pacers33granger » Sun Nov 8, 2020 4:55 pm

NY could totally make him a big offer we just can't match. Otherwise good to know we're his first option. I do wonder if Nate will have him play more as a small ball 4, which could be a negative to Justin.
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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#8 » by Topofthekey » Sun Nov 8, 2020 5:10 pm

I'm not a fan of stretching and waiving

I think the ideal move for the Pacers right now, if it were to be available, is some kind of consolidation trade where the team simultaneously shaves off some salary

Not saying Mavericks will go for it, but to illustrate with an example:

Mavericks in: Doug, TJM
Pacers in: Kleiba

Pacers saves about $2m from the trade, while simultaneously consolidating Doug and TJM into a quality backup 4, which opens up playing time for Aaron and Sumner

This is the sort of consolidation + cost cutting trade that would be perfect for the Pacers right now
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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#9 » by Scoot McGroot » Sun Nov 8, 2020 5:37 pm

Topofthekey wrote:I'm not a fan of stretching and waiving

I think the ideal move for the Pacers right now, if it were to be available, is some kind of consolidation trade where the team simultaneously shaves off some salary

Not saying Mavericks will go for it, but to illustrate with an example:

Mavericks in: Doug, TJM
Pacers in: Kleiba

Pacers saves about $2m from the trade, while simultaneously consolidating Doug and TJM into a quality backup 4, which opens up playing time for Aaron and Sumner

This is the sort of consolidation + cost cutting trade that would be perfect for the Pacers right now



Well, Dallas won’t, and I think similar options would also be turned down in many cases, as we’d be upgrading players AND saving money in the process without paying up picks.

And savings are muted in this case too, as a vet minimum contract to fill the empty roster spot after this deal would erase all but $500k in savings.

I’m big on something like a Doug for Scott plus good second for the cash savings, and I see Justin as a long term replacement at bench SF for Doug, while netting some value this offseason before losing Doug for nothing.
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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#10 » by Wizop » Sun Nov 8, 2020 5:54 pm

We don't have to carry 15.

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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#11 » by Topofthekey » Sun Nov 8, 2020 6:06 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:I'm not a fan of stretching and waiving

I think the ideal move for the Pacers right now, if it were to be available, is some kind of consolidation trade where the team simultaneously shaves off some salary

Not saying Mavericks will go for it, but to illustrate with an example:

Mavericks in: Doug, TJM
Pacers in: Kleiba

Pacers saves about $2m from the trade, while simultaneously consolidating Doug and TJM into a quality backup 4, which opens up playing time for Aaron and Sumner

This is the sort of consolidation + cost cutting trade that would be perfect for the Pacers right now



Well, Dallas won’t, and I think similar options would also be turned down in many cases, as we’d be upgrading players AND saving money in the process without paying up picks.

And savings are muted in this case too, as a vet minimum contract to fill the empty roster spot after this deal would erase all but $500k in savings.

I’m big on something like a Doug for Scott plus good second for the cash savings, and I see Justin as a long term replacement at bench SF for Doug, while netting some value this offseason before losing Doug for nothing.

You could sign an undrafted free agent instead, like what Warriors did with Ky Bowman, those contracts are cheap

The main issue here is, as you said, Mavericks wouldn't go for it

The challenge is to find this sort of consolidation + cost cutting trade that the other team would agree to
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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#12 » by Scoot McGroot » Sun Nov 8, 2020 6:54 pm

Wizop wrote:We don't have to carry 15.

Sent from my phone.

We have to generally carry 14. We can carry 13 for only up to two weeks at a time.
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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#13 » by Scoot McGroot » Sun Nov 8, 2020 6:56 pm

Topofthekey wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:I'm not a fan of stretching and waiving

I think the ideal move for the Pacers right now, if it were to be available, is some kind of consolidation trade where the team simultaneously shaves off some salary

Not saying Mavericks will go for it, but to illustrate with an example:

Mavericks in: Doug, TJM
Pacers in: Kleiba

Pacers saves about $2m from the trade, while simultaneously consolidating Doug and TJM into a quality backup 4, which opens up playing time for Aaron and Sumner

This is the sort of consolidation + cost cutting trade that would be perfect for the Pacers right now



Well, Dallas won’t, and I think similar options would also be turned down in many cases, as we’d be upgrading players AND saving money in the process without paying up picks.

And savings are muted in this case too, as a vet minimum contract to fill the empty roster spot after this deal would erase all but $500k in savings.

I’m big on something like a Doug for Scott plus good second for the cash savings, and I see Justin as a long term replacement at bench SF for Doug, while netting some value this offseason before losing Doug for nothing.

You could sign an undrafted free agent instead, like what Warriors did with Ky Bowman, those contracts are cheap

The main issue here is, as you said, Mavericks wouldn't go for it

The challenge is to find this sort of consolidation + cost cutting trade that the other team would agree to



Still counts the same as a 2 year vet minimum against the luxury tax. This is a league rule so that older vets don’t get blackballed in favor of young guys for savings. Essentially all vet minimum contracts count the same as a 2 year vet salary against the cap/tax. Only a guy that YOU draft in the 2nd round can count as less.
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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#14 » by Topofthekey » Sun Nov 8, 2020 7:25 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:

Well, Dallas won’t, and I think similar options would also be turned down in many cases, as we’d be upgrading players AND saving money in the process without paying up picks.

And savings are muted in this case too, as a vet minimum contract to fill the empty roster spot after this deal would erase all but $500k in savings.

I’m big on something like a Doug for Scott plus good second for the cash savings, and I see Justin as a long term replacement at bench SF for Doug, while netting some value this offseason before losing Doug for nothing.

You could sign an undrafted free agent instead, like what Warriors did with Ky Bowman, those contracts are cheap

The main issue here is, as you said, Mavericks wouldn't go for it

The challenge is to find this sort of consolidation + cost cutting trade that the other team would agree to



Still counts the same as a 2 year vet minimum against the luxury tax. This is a league rule so that older vets don’t get blackballed in favor of young guys for savings. Essentially all vet minimum contracts count the same as a 2 year vet salary against the cap/tax. Only a guy that YOU draft in the 2nd round can count as less.

Then draft someone in the 2nd round. This is a very minor issue that can easily be skirted

As you and I have both pointed out, the bigger problem is finding a suitable trading partner for a consolidation + cost cutting trade

If and when such a trading partner is found (unlikely, but if), then you do the trade

Let's assume that the Mavericks (for whatever reason), agreed to the trade (thereby allowing us to re-sign Justin while staying under the tax threshold)

At that point, our roster would consist of

Myles
Domas
Warren
Vic
Brogdon
Goga
Kleiba
Justin
Lamb
Aaron
Sumner
Leaf
Pacers 2RP

That's already 13. At that point, all we have to do is to acquire an extra SRP (or two) to fill up the roster, which shouldn't be difficult

The difficult part is getting the Mavericks to accept the trade in the first place
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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#15 » by Scoot McGroot » Sun Nov 8, 2020 7:30 pm

Topofthekey wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:You could sign an undrafted free agent instead, like what Warriors did with Ky Bowman, those contracts are cheap

The main issue here is, as you said, Mavericks wouldn't go for it

The challenge is to find this sort of consolidation + cost cutting trade that the other team would agree to



Still counts the same as a 2 year vet minimum against the luxury tax. This is a league rule so that older vets don’t get blackballed in favor of young guys for savings. Essentially all vet minimum contracts count the same as a 2 year vet salary against the cap/tax. Only a guy that YOU draft in the 2nd round can count as less.

Then draft someone in the 2nd round. This is a very minor issue that can easily be skirted

As you and I have both pointed out, the bigger problem is finding a suitable trading partner for a consolidation + cost cutting trade

If and when such a trading partner is found (unlikely, but if), then you do the trade

Let's assume that the Mavericks (for whatever reason), agreed to the trade (thereby allowing us to re-sign Justin while staying under the tax threshold)

At that point, our roster would consist of

Myles
Domas
Warren
Vic
Brogdon
Goga
Kleiba
Justin
Lamb
Aaron
Sumner
Leaf
Pacers 2RP

That's already 13. At that point, all we have to do is to acquire an extra SRP (or two) to fill up the roster, which shouldn't be difficult

The difficult part is getting the Mavericks to accept the trade in the first place



Likely have to give up a future 1st to get that done :dontknow: also, your plan has indy about $9.4m under the tax to fill 3-4 roster spots. Even if you acquire a couple other 2nds and save money that way, and fill the minimum of spots and leave the 15th open, Justin is limited to $7m or less, if you keep a little free in case someone hits an unexpected bonus and pushes you into the tax.
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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#16 » by Scoot McGroot » Sun Nov 8, 2020 7:33 pm

But also, keep in mind that late 2nds are inherently less likely to help a team than vet minimum guys like Jakarr Sampson, so that’s the double edged knife there.
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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#17 » by Topofthekey » Sun Nov 8, 2020 8:00 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:But also, keep in mind that late 2nds are inherently less likely to help a team than vet minimum guys like Jakarr Sampson, so that’s the double edged knife there.

True, the players drafted in the second round will most likely not see any action

But ideally you'd want a rotation of 9 to 10 players anyway, so that players like Goga and Sumner can actually get some meaningful playing time. Nate M was not willing to play them much, preferring to go with vets like Jakarr and TJM instead in order to eke out every single W during the regular season. By the time the team went the playoffs, they weren't ready to contribute. I'm not saying they would have made any difference, but it would've been nice to have them available if the team needed them
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Re: Justin Holiday off-season? 

Post#18 » by Topofthekey » Sun Nov 8, 2020 8:03 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:

Still counts the same as a 2 year vet minimum against the luxury tax. This is a league rule so that older vets don’t get blackballed in favor of young guys for savings. Essentially all vet minimum contracts count the same as a 2 year vet salary against the cap/tax. Only a guy that YOU draft in the 2nd round can count as less.

Then draft someone in the 2nd round. This is a very minor issue that can easily be skirted

As you and I have both pointed out, the bigger problem is finding a suitable trading partner for a consolidation + cost cutting trade

If and when such a trading partner is found (unlikely, but if), then you do the trade

Let's assume that the Mavericks (for whatever reason), agreed to the trade (thereby allowing us to re-sign Justin while staying under the tax threshold)

At that point, our roster would consist of

Myles
Domas
Warren
Vic
Brogdon
Goga
Kleiba
Justin
Lamb
Aaron
Sumner
Leaf
Pacers 2RP

That's already 13. At that point, all we have to do is to acquire an extra SRP (or two) to fill up the roster, which shouldn't be difficult

The difficult part is getting the Mavericks to accept the trade in the first place



Likely have to give up a future 1st to get that done :dontknow: also, your plan has indy about $9.4m under the tax to fill 3-4 roster spots. Even if you acquire a couple other 2nds and save money that way, and fill the minimum of spots and leave the 15th open, Justin is limited to $7m or less, if you keep a little free in case someone hits an unexpected bonus and pushes you into the tax.

Yup, that specific plan wasn't a good one

It was just an example, to illustrate the kind of consolidation + cost cutting trade that I think would be perfect for the team

Is such a trade even available out there? I don't know. That's why finding one would be a challenge

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