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2021 Trade Deadline

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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#61 » by Pacers Forever » Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:39 am

I was hoping that Pacers could have gotten G. Deing from Memphis buy out for rest of the season. I didn’t see any other buy outs that would come here.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#62 » by Topofthekey » Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:45 pm

Actually, if we look at the standings, Pacers are right where they should want to be at. Being the 9th or 10th seed is actually the ideal position for this team

Being the 9th seed, there's still an almost 10% chance (9.4% to be exact) that the team gets a top 4 pick, according to tankathon

http://www.tankathon.com

At the same time, they still get an opportunity to make the playoffs via the play in tournament

If we're being honest, that's where we want the team to finish the season at, actually

The team's most likely a first round exit anyway, so what does it matter whether they lose as the 5th seed or the 9th

Being the 9th or 10th seed basically gives them the best of both worlds. A slim chance at winning the lottery, at the same time an opportunity to make the playoffs

For a team that doesn't tank, and does not have a chance at signing any premium FAs, one may actually argue that aiming for the 9th or 10th should be the goal

9.4% isn't a lot, but multiply that by 3 or 4 seasons, the odds don't look too terrible after all

In fact, playing around with Realgm's lotto simulator, Pacers got the #3 pick on my third try

So if the team consistently ends up being the 9th or 10th seed over the next few seasons, there's a good chance that they land a good pick eventually, while also being able to make the playoffs still

Of course, I am hoping it doesn't have to come to that

I am hoping that the team gets lucky on the very first try

The hope is that the team lands a top 3 pick this very draft, while also making the playoffs via the play in tournament. That would literally be perfect

Sounds like I am going to be cheering for the Pacers to do well enough the rest of the season to hang on to the 9th or 10th seed and qualify for the play in tournament, but not so well that they rise further up in the standings and miss the lottery altogether

On the flip side, being the 7th or 8th seed is the worst position to be in. You don't qualify for the lottery, and you might also not make the playoffs if you get bumped off in the play in tournament. Unfortunately, I feel that I might just have jinxed the team into ending up as the 7th or 8th seed by saying this

TLDR: 9th and 10th seed good, 7th and 8th seed bad


EDIT: Actually, I just noticed, Bulls being the 10th seed in the east has a 20.3% chance at a top 4 pick. Wow, their chance for a top 4 pick jumped from 9.3% to 20.3% just by losing two more games than Pacers. That's like the golden sweet spot to be in. I'm going to be cheering for the Pacers to win just enough games to hang on to the 10th seed for the rest of the season. I'm also cheering for the Thunder and Pelicans to end up with more wins than the Pacers, so that Pacers odds of getting a top 4 pick gets even better
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#63 » by Tom White » Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:46 pm

Topofthekey wrote:TLDR: 9th and 10th seed good, 7th and 8th seed bad


EDIT: Actually, I just noticed, Bulls being the 10th seed in the east has a 20.3% chance at a top 4 pick. Wow, their chance for a top 4 pick jumped from 9.3% to 20.3% just by losing two more games than Pacers. That's like the golden sweet spot to be in. I'm going to be cheering for the Pacers to win just enough games to hang on to the 10th seed for the rest of the season. I'm also cheering for the Thunder and Pelicans to end up with more wins than the Pacers, so that Pacers odds of getting a top 4 pick gets even better


That is the most convoluted thinking I've seen in a long time................and I like it! :lol:
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#64 » by Topofthekey » Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:38 pm

Tom White wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:TLDR: 9th and 10th seed good, 7th and 8th seed bad


EDIT: Actually, I just noticed, Bulls being the 10th seed in the east has a 20.3% chance at a top 4 pick. Wow, their chance for a top 4 pick jumped from 9.3% to 20.3% just by losing two more games than Pacers. That's like the golden sweet spot to be in. I'm going to be cheering for the Pacers to win just enough games to hang on to the 10th seed for the rest of the season. I'm also cheering for the Thunder and Pelicans to end up with more wins than the Pacers, so that Pacers odds of getting a top 4 pick gets even better


That is the most convoluted thinking I've seen in a long time................and I like it! :lol:

Ideally speaking, I want every team in the west + 9 teams in the east to end up with better records than the Pacers

That would give the Pacers the 6th worst record in the entire league, putting their chances of getting a top 4 pick at... (checks)... 37.2%, while simultaneously qualifying them for the 10th seed in the east and a chance to make the playoffs via the play in games

That's basically the best of both worlds, getting the opportunity for a premium pick AND also the chance to make the playoffs

Of course, it's unlikely that every single team in the west will have a better record than the Pacers, but it's entirely possible that 10-12 out of 15 of them do. 11 of them have better records than the Pacers right now, in fact

The reason why the more teams from the west end up with a better record than the Pacers, the better it is, is because they don't affect the Pacers' playoff seedings (different conference), yet it improves the quality of the Pacers pick because the lottery odds are assigned based purely on win-lose record irrespective of conference

So yes, I'm going to be cheering for every single team in the west (especially the lottery bound ones) to get as many W's as possible, while making sure that Pacers win just enough games to hang on to the 10th seed in their own conference

It's not tanking if they're still able to make the playoffs via the play in games
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#65 » by Topofthekey » Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:54 pm

Basically, if you're a contender (Nets, Bucks, 76ers) you want to aim for the highest seed possible, to ensure that you have HCA in the playoffs for as far as possible

For the middle of the pack teams (like the Pacers) , you actually want to aim for the 9th and 10th seed

5th and 6th is meh, because it doesn't confer any advantages

7th and 8th is actively bad, as it basically disqualifies you from the lottery, yet does not guarantee you a spot in the playoffs

Meanwhile, 9th and 10th qualifies you for the lottery, while also giving you a path to the playoffs, meaning you can maintain some semblance of competitiveness and self respect, while still getting a shot at landing a good pick

Basically, the 9th and 10th spot are kind of unique, in this new format (play in games + flattening of lottery odds)

I wonder if that's why the Raptors have been sucking this season, because Masai Ujiri has decided to gun for the 9th and 10th seed
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#66 » by Scoot McGroot » Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:59 pm

Topofthekey wrote:Basically, if you're a contender (Nets, Bucks, 76ers) you want to aim for the highest seed possible, to ensure that you have HCA in the playoffs for as far as possible

For the middle of the pack teams (like the Pacers) , you actually want to aim for the 9th and 10th seed

5th and 6th is meh, because it doesn't confer any advantages

7th and 8th is actively bad, as it basically disqualifies you from the lottery, yet does not guarantee you a spot in the playoffs

Meanwhile, 9th and 10th qualifies you for the lottery, while also giving you a path to the playoffs, meaning you can maintain some semblance of competitiveness and self respect, while still getting a shot at landing a good pick

Basically, the 9th and 10th spot are kind of unique, in this new format (play in games + flattening of lottery odds)

I wonder if that's why the Raptors have been sucking this season, because Masai Ujiri has decided to gun for the 9th and 10th seed


Keep in mind, 9th and 10th seed only has chances at the lotto if they lose the play in games. If they win the play in games, they aren’t in the top 14 for the draft lottery, and have no ping pong balls for the draft.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#67 » by Pacers Forever » Thu Apr 1, 2021 3:25 am

Scoot McGroot wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:Basically, if you're a contender (Nets, Bucks, 76ers) you want to aim for the highest seed possible, to ensure that you have HCA in the playoffs for as far as possible

For the middle of the pack teams (like the Pacers) , you actually want to aim for the 9th and 10th seed

5th and 6th is meh, because it doesn't confer any advantages

7th and 8th is actively bad, as it basically disqualifies you from the lottery, yet does not guarantee you a spot in the playoffs

Meanwhile, 9th and 10th qualifies you for the lottery, while also giving you a path to the playoffs, meaning you can maintain some semblance of competitiveness and self respect, while still getting a shot at landing a good pick

Basically, the 9th and 10th spot are kind of unique, in this new format (play in games + flattening of lottery odds)

I wonder if that's why the Raptors have been sucking this season, because Masai Ujiri has decided to gun for the 9th and 10th seed


Keep in mind, 9th and 10th seed only has chances at the lotto if they lose the play in games. If they win the play in games, they aren’t in the top 14 for the draft lottery, and have no ping pong balls for the draft.


I'm all in for a loss in the play in game. This season was wrecked early by Oladipo's revelations that he really didn't want to be here. Add a new coaching staff. Add Covid restrictions and less practice time. Add LeVert's fortunate diagnosis during the trade procedure which delayed his debut. Add Warren's injury and it's long time table to recover. It's just a messed up season and I'm all for growing the bench players with game experience and using this season as a stepping stone to a more unified run next year without an obvious tanking situation. Hopefully the players don't take it negatively and just see where they need to improve their individual and team play.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#68 » by Pacers Forever » Thu Apr 1, 2021 9:24 am

Also why sign a guy to a 10 day contract and not give him a few minutes in a game ? Just don’t get signing a G or D league player for him to sit on the bench 10 days ?
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#69 » by Wizop » Thu Apr 1, 2021 1:02 pm

Pacers Forever wrote:Also why sign a guy to a 10 day contract and not give him a few minutes in a game ? Just don’t get signing a G or D league player for him to sit on the bench 10 days ?
if you mean Oshae, there has been no official signing annnouncement. he may have to clear covid testing first or they could just be waiting.

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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#70 » by Wizop » Thu Apr 1, 2021 1:10 pm

doing the math: .904*.904*.904= .74 so the odds of moving up with 3 chances is 1-.74= .36 it takes 7 changes to be over 50/50. but I agree that 9th or 10th could be the sweet spot for a team not going anywhere.

FWIW LeVert has to play much better for us to be a contender. I hope his problems are conditioning, rust, and new teammates.

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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#71 » by Topofthekey » Thu Apr 1, 2021 4:34 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:Basically, if you're a contender (Nets, Bucks, 76ers) you want to aim for the highest seed possible, to ensure that you have HCA in the playoffs for as far as possible

For the middle of the pack teams (like the Pacers) , you actually want to aim for the 9th and 10th seed

5th and 6th is meh, because it doesn't confer any advantages

7th and 8th is actively bad, as it basically disqualifies you from the lottery, yet does not guarantee you a spot in the playoffs

Meanwhile, 9th and 10th qualifies you for the lottery, while also giving you a path to the playoffs, meaning you can maintain some semblance of competitiveness and self respect, while still getting a shot at landing a good pick

Basically, the 9th and 10th spot are kind of unique, in this new format (play in games + flattening of lottery odds)

I wonder if that's why the Raptors have been sucking this season, because Masai Ujiri has decided to gun for the 9th and 10th seed


Keep in mind, 9th and 10th seed only has chances at the lotto if they lose the play in games. If they win the play in games, they aren’t in the top 14 for the draft lottery, and have no ping pong balls for the draft.

Ideal outcome would be to get the 10th seed (and have a worse record than as many west conf teams as possible). And then beat the 9th seed in the first play in game, but lose to the loser between the 7th and 8th seed and go to the lottery

That way the team gets good lottery odds, while remaining competitive on the surface

Hopefully the team only has to do it once and get lucky in its very first trip to the lottery under the new flattened odds format

The Bulls have a 26.3% to land a top 4 pick right now, as the 10th seed in the east, and 26.3% chance is not too bad. Even 9.4%, where Pacers are at right now, isn't trivial

But the Bulls' position is basically where I hope we end up at

Hopefully they surge past us, with their acquisition of Vucevic, and hopefully we keep winning just enough games to hold on to the 10th seed but not enough to rise up to the 7th or 8th seed
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#72 » by Pacersike » Sat Apr 3, 2021 11:02 am

Wizop wrote:
Pacersike wrote:I don't see how Doug will re-sign


Doug tweeted today that he wants to stay here long term.

Sent from my phone.

I don't see how we can make him a way too generous offer again.

It's like we want to create some goodwill, by respecting contracts unless a player is bad, to lure other free agents, but they seem to forget that in the end, everybody will look for the best option for themselves.

McDermott is having a career year, it is rumored contenders are interested in him, make good business then and sell high.

If Doug can get much more money elsewhere, he very likely is gone after this season.

It's a business, man and the Pacers typically always sell when values drop. They don't plan much, always try to make the playoffs now.

And they are wrong to think that with creating goodwill (offering extra value for free agents) they will get better access to players.

Everybody takes care of themselves, the Pacers need a mixture of Pritchard(soft) and Bird(tough) in the front office.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#73 » by Topofthekey » Sat Apr 3, 2021 12:23 pm

Pacersike wrote:
Wizop wrote:
Pacersike wrote:I don't see how Doug will re-sign


Doug tweeted today that he wants to stay here long term.

Sent from my phone.

I don't see how we can make him a way too generous offer again.

It's like we want to create some goodwill, by respecting contracts unless a player is bad, to lure other free agents, but they seem to forget that in the end, everybody will look for the best option for themselves.

McDermott is having a career year, it is rumored contenders are interested in him, make good business then and sell high.

If Doug can get much more money elsewhere, he very likely is gone after this season.

It's a business, man and the Pacers typically always sell when values drop. They don't plan much, always try to make the playoffs now.

And they are wrong to think that with creating goodwill (offering extra value for free agents) they will get better access to players.

Everybody takes care of themselves, the Pacers need a mixture of Pritchard(soft) and Bird(tough) in the front office.

Agreed

I'm not a proponent of the fantasy basketball style of team management where you constantly trade players for "better value", but they seriously should have looked for a trade for Doug earlier on in the season, way before the trade deadline

Doug's pretty great, but he literally does nothing for this Pacer team

I mean yes, he has great synergy with Domas, and you can never have too many shooters, so theoretically he's a great bench piece to have. But the problem is, he's an expiring contract, and unless he's willing to take a steep discount to remain in Indiana, chances are some other contender throws their MLE at him, and we'd be hard pressed to come up with a better counter-offer

It's more or less the same situation with TJ, some contender who's looking for a good backup PG is similarly just going to throw a contract at him that we cannot/should not beat

They should have tried selling Doug and TJ much earlier, probably as soon as Warren went down, rather than hanging on to them
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#74 » by Pacersike » Sun Apr 4, 2021 1:23 am

Topofthekey wrote:Agreed

I'm not a proponent of the fantasy basketball style of team management where you constantly trade players for "better value", but they seriously should have looked for a trade for Doug earlier on in the season, way before the trade deadline

Doug's pretty great, but he literally does nothing for this Pacer team

I mean yes, he has great synergy with Domas, and you can never have too many shooters, so theoretically he's a great bench piece to have. But the problem is, he's an expiring contract, and unless he's willing to take a steep discount to remain in Indiana, chances are some other contender throws their MLE at him, and we'd be hard pressed to come up with a better counter-offer

It's more or less the same situation with TJ, some contender who's looking for a good backup PG is similarly just going to throw a contract at him that we cannot/should not beat

They should have tried selling Doug and TJ much earlier, probably as soon as Warren went down, rather than hanging on to them

Perhaps they have tried to move them, but fact is we didn't get some better pieces for the future and it's a pattern that we don't plan much further than trying to make the next playoffs.

As you said, this season is most likely lost for advancing in the playoffs. If Aaron and Goga screw up, we win by getting a better pick, if they play well, we win too, so try harder to trade veterans making a limited impact.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#75 » by Pacers Forever » Sun Apr 4, 2021 1:47 am

Sometimes I wonder if other teams low ball the Pacers on trade proposals consistently ? I know some teams such as Celtics and Lakers seems to. On the other hand I wonder if Pritchard is so dead set on winning a trade big time that he doesn't pull the trigger on marginal returns that might help the team's chemistry and structure.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline 

Post#76 » by Topofthekey » Sun Apr 4, 2021 8:06 am

Pacersike wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:Agreed

I'm not a proponent of the fantasy basketball style of team management where you constantly trade players for "better value", but they seriously should have looked for a trade for Doug earlier on in the season, way before the trade deadline

Doug's pretty great, but he literally does nothing for this Pacer team

I mean yes, he has great synergy with Domas, and you can never have too many shooters, so theoretically he's a great bench piece to have. But the problem is, he's an expiring contract, and unless he's willing to take a steep discount to remain in Indiana, chances are some other contender throws their MLE at him, and we'd be hard pressed to come up with a better counter-offer

It's more or less the same situation with TJ, some contender who's looking for a good backup PG is similarly just going to throw a contract at him that we cannot/should not beat

They should have tried selling Doug and TJ much earlier, probably as soon as Warren went down, rather than hanging on to them

Perhaps they have tried to move them, but fact is we didn't get some better pieces for the future and it's a pattern that we don't plan much further than trying to make the next playoffs.

As you said, this season is most likely lost for advancing in the playoffs. If Aaron and Goga screw up, we win by getting a better pick, if they play well, we win too, so try harder to trade veterans making a limited impact.

Yes, Pacers should definitely look to get Aaron and Goga as much playing time as possible

It's a win-win as you said

Either they aren't good and Pacers win by improving their pick, or they play well and Pacers also win by having two emerging young players on the roster

I'm happy at least to see Sumner getting the opportunity to play

The rest of the season really should be about developing Sumner, Aaron, and Goga

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