Re: 2021 Trade Deadline
Posted: Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:39 am
I was hoping that Pacers could have gotten G. Deing from Memphis buy out for rest of the season. I didn’t see any other buy outs that would come here.
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Topofthekey wrote:TLDR: 9th and 10th seed good, 7th and 8th seed bad
EDIT: Actually, I just noticed, Bulls being the 10th seed in the east has a 20.3% chance at a top 4 pick. Wow, their chance for a top 4 pick jumped from 9.3% to 20.3% just by losing two more games than Pacers. That's like the golden sweet spot to be in. I'm going to be cheering for the Pacers to win just enough games to hang on to the 10th seed for the rest of the season. I'm also cheering for the Thunder and Pelicans to end up with more wins than the Pacers, so that Pacers odds of getting a top 4 pick gets even better
Tom White wrote:Topofthekey wrote:TLDR: 9th and 10th seed good, 7th and 8th seed bad
EDIT: Actually, I just noticed, Bulls being the 10th seed in the east has a 20.3% chance at a top 4 pick. Wow, their chance for a top 4 pick jumped from 9.3% to 20.3% just by losing two more games than Pacers. That's like the golden sweet spot to be in. I'm going to be cheering for the Pacers to win just enough games to hang on to the 10th seed for the rest of the season. I'm also cheering for the Thunder and Pelicans to end up with more wins than the Pacers, so that Pacers odds of getting a top 4 pick gets even better
That is the most convoluted thinking I've seen in a long time................and I like it!
Topofthekey wrote:Basically, if you're a contender (Nets, Bucks, 76ers) you want to aim for the highest seed possible, to ensure that you have HCA in the playoffs for as far as possible
For the middle of the pack teams (like the Pacers) , you actually want to aim for the 9th and 10th seed
5th and 6th is meh, because it doesn't confer any advantages
7th and 8th is actively bad, as it basically disqualifies you from the lottery, yet does not guarantee you a spot in the playoffs
Meanwhile, 9th and 10th qualifies you for the lottery, while also giving you a path to the playoffs, meaning you can maintain some semblance of competitiveness and self respect, while still getting a shot at landing a good pick
Basically, the 9th and 10th spot are kind of unique, in this new format (play in games + flattening of lottery odds)
I wonder if that's why the Raptors have been sucking this season, because Masai Ujiri has decided to gun for the 9th and 10th seed
Scoot McGroot wrote:Topofthekey wrote:Basically, if you're a contender (Nets, Bucks, 76ers) you want to aim for the highest seed possible, to ensure that you have HCA in the playoffs for as far as possible
For the middle of the pack teams (like the Pacers) , you actually want to aim for the 9th and 10th seed
5th and 6th is meh, because it doesn't confer any advantages
7th and 8th is actively bad, as it basically disqualifies you from the lottery, yet does not guarantee you a spot in the playoffs
Meanwhile, 9th and 10th qualifies you for the lottery, while also giving you a path to the playoffs, meaning you can maintain some semblance of competitiveness and self respect, while still getting a shot at landing a good pick
Basically, the 9th and 10th spot are kind of unique, in this new format (play in games + flattening of lottery odds)
I wonder if that's why the Raptors have been sucking this season, because Masai Ujiri has decided to gun for the 9th and 10th seed
Keep in mind, 9th and 10th seed only has chances at the lotto if they lose the play in games. If they win the play in games, they aren’t in the top 14 for the draft lottery, and have no ping pong balls for the draft.
if you mean Oshae, there has been no official signing annnouncement. he may have to clear covid testing first or they could just be waiting.Pacers Forever wrote:Also why sign a guy to a 10 day contract and not give him a few minutes in a game ? Just don’t get signing a G or D league player for him to sit on the bench 10 days ?
Scoot McGroot wrote:Topofthekey wrote:Basically, if you're a contender (Nets, Bucks, 76ers) you want to aim for the highest seed possible, to ensure that you have HCA in the playoffs for as far as possible
For the middle of the pack teams (like the Pacers) , you actually want to aim for the 9th and 10th seed
5th and 6th is meh, because it doesn't confer any advantages
7th and 8th is actively bad, as it basically disqualifies you from the lottery, yet does not guarantee you a spot in the playoffs
Meanwhile, 9th and 10th qualifies you for the lottery, while also giving you a path to the playoffs, meaning you can maintain some semblance of competitiveness and self respect, while still getting a shot at landing a good pick
Basically, the 9th and 10th spot are kind of unique, in this new format (play in games + flattening of lottery odds)
I wonder if that's why the Raptors have been sucking this season, because Masai Ujiri has decided to gun for the 9th and 10th seed
Keep in mind, 9th and 10th seed only has chances at the lotto if they lose the play in games. If they win the play in games, they aren’t in the top 14 for the draft lottery, and have no ping pong balls for the draft.
Wizop wrote:Pacersike wrote:I don't see how Doug will re-sign
Doug tweeted today that he wants to stay here long term.
Sent from my phone.
Pacersike wrote:Wizop wrote:Pacersike wrote:I don't see how Doug will re-sign
Doug tweeted today that he wants to stay here long term.
Sent from my phone.
I don't see how we can make him a way too generous offer again.
It's like we want to create some goodwill, by respecting contracts unless a player is bad, to lure other free agents, but they seem to forget that in the end, everybody will look for the best option for themselves.
McDermott is having a career year, it is rumored contenders are interested in him, make good business then and sell high.
If Doug can get much more money elsewhere, he very likely is gone after this season.
It's a business, man and the Pacers typically always sell when values drop. They don't plan much, always try to make the playoffs now.
And they are wrong to think that with creating goodwill (offering extra value for free agents) they will get better access to players.
Everybody takes care of themselves, the Pacers need a mixture of Pritchard(soft) and Bird(tough) in the front office.
Topofthekey wrote:Agreed
I'm not a proponent of the fantasy basketball style of team management where you constantly trade players for "better value", but they seriously should have looked for a trade for Doug earlier on in the season, way before the trade deadline
Doug's pretty great, but he literally does nothing for this Pacer team
I mean yes, he has great synergy with Domas, and you can never have too many shooters, so theoretically he's a great bench piece to have. But the problem is, he's an expiring contract, and unless he's willing to take a steep discount to remain in Indiana, chances are some other contender throws their MLE at him, and we'd be hard pressed to come up with a better counter-offer
It's more or less the same situation with TJ, some contender who's looking for a good backup PG is similarly just going to throw a contract at him that we cannot/should not beat
They should have tried selling Doug and TJ much earlier, probably as soon as Warren went down, rather than hanging on to them
Pacersike wrote:Topofthekey wrote:Agreed
I'm not a proponent of the fantasy basketball style of team management where you constantly trade players for "better value", but they seriously should have looked for a trade for Doug earlier on in the season, way before the trade deadline
Doug's pretty great, but he literally does nothing for this Pacer team
I mean yes, he has great synergy with Domas, and you can never have too many shooters, so theoretically he's a great bench piece to have. But the problem is, he's an expiring contract, and unless he's willing to take a steep discount to remain in Indiana, chances are some other contender throws their MLE at him, and we'd be hard pressed to come up with a better counter-offer
It's more or less the same situation with TJ, some contender who's looking for a good backup PG is similarly just going to throw a contract at him that we cannot/should not beat
They should have tried selling Doug and TJ much earlier, probably as soon as Warren went down, rather than hanging on to them
Perhaps they have tried to move them, but fact is we didn't get some better pieces for the future and it's a pattern that we don't plan much further than trying to make the next playoffs.
As you said, this season is most likely lost for advancing in the playoffs. If Aaron and Goga screw up, we win by getting a better pick, if they play well, we win too, so try harder to trade veterans making a limited impact.