2021 Draft Thread

[Wizop]

So if you're picking between 7 to 14 (which we are), the job is to identify this one or two secret player and hope that they are available when it's your turn to pick

if you use the tier theory and think 7 to 14 is all tier 3, you hope some people above you reach so that multiple players in the tier fall to you, and then you pick among them based on need. Ford posted his personal mock today (not his ranking board or a predictive mock but what he would do) and went with Mitchell for us calling it a compromise between Pritchard wanting a high ceiling and Carlisle wanting a guy who can play as a rookie. I'm okay if that is the choice because I see replacing Aaron with a top defender fills a need. but I'd also be okay trading for the two Knicks picks hoping to get Cooper and a wing/4. there are also a couple of other teams with multiple lower picks.

[Jstock12]

Chad Ford has posted his tier ratings this week. He says many teams use a system like this taking the player within the appropriate tier that fits their needs. taking a player from a lower tier when a higher tier player is still on the board is a reach in this system. He says the list is made after talking to league contacts. I won't list his tier one or two names as they are the six players (three ones and three twos) we all know. Here are his tier three names. this tier is High Level Starters. Naturally there are six names so it is possible they'll all be gone at 13. In alphabetical order:

Bouknight
Giddey
Johnson
Mitchell
Segun
Wagner

In a postcast after he posted this he says Ziaire Williams is rising up his rankings. that'd make 13.

The thing to note is, there's never been a draft where all three players taken in the top 3 end up being stars (defined here as multiple AS selections or better) - it's a statistical certainty that at least one of Cade, Green, or Mobley is going to be a bust

So if a player is drafted in the top3 and becomes a really good starter (McCollum, Turkoglu, Brogdon, Jamal Murray), do you consider him a bust?

[Topofthekey]

Chad Ford has posted his tier ratings this week. He says many teams use a system like this taking the player within the appropriate tier that fits their needs. taking a player from a lower tier when a higher tier player is still on the board is a reach in this system. He says the list is made after talking to league contacts. I won't list his tier one or two names as they are the six players (three ones and three twos) we all know. Here are his tier three names. this tier is High Level Starters. Naturally there are six names so it is possible they'll all be gone at 13. In alphabetical order:

Bouknight
Giddey
Johnson
Mitchell
Segun
Wagner

In a postcast after he posted this he says Ziaire Williams is rising up his rankings. that'd make 13.

The thing to note is, there's never been a draft where all three players taken in the top 3 end up being stars (defined here as multiple AS selections or better) - it's a statistical certainty that at least one of Cade, Green, or Mobley is going to be a bust

So if a player is drafted in the top3 and becomes a really good starter (McCollum, Turkoglu, Brogdon, Jamal Murray), do you consider him a bust?

Depends on who were picked after them, but yes, for most of those players listed, I would consider them a bust if they were taken in the top 3

Brogdon and Murray still have quite a lot of career ahead of them though, so things could easily change

McCollum's draft was really weak, so relative to his draft class, I guess he's fine?

[Wizop]

So if a player is drafted in the top3 and becomes a really good starter (McCollum, Turkoglu, Brogdon, Jamal Murray), do you consider him a bust?

I didn't mean to say that every year there are three tier 1 players. This year he has three but there have been years where he had none. But if he had a player ranked in tier one who became a solid starter but not an all star, I think he'd say he should've been tier two or three.

Chad's podcasts are free but his articles are subcribers only.

Sent from my phone.

[pacers33granger]

The thing to note is, there's never been a draft where all three players taken in the top 3 end up being stars (defined here as multiple AS selections or better) - it's a statistical certainty that at least one of Cade, Green, or Mobley is going to be a bust

2016 top 3 were Simmons (3 AS appearances), Ingram (1), and Brown (1). Odds are both Ingram and Brown end up with a few more.

1999 had Brand (2), Francis (3), and Davis (2).

1994 had Glenn Robinson (2), Kidd (10), and Grant Hill (7).

1992 doesn't count because Laettner only made 1, but was still an all star and the first two picks were Shaq and Zo.

It's likely that at least one disappoints. But it's not out of the question that all three actually work out.

[Topofthekey]

The thing to note is, there's never been a draft where all three players taken in the top 3 end up being stars (defined here as multiple AS selections or better) - it's a statistical certainty that at least one of Cade, Green, or Mobley is going to be a bust

2016 top 3 were Simmons (3 AS appearances), Ingram (1), and Brown (1). Odds are both Ingram and Brown end up with a few more.

1999 had Brand (2), Francis (3), and Davis (2).

1994 had Glenn Robinson (2), Kidd (10), and Grant Hill (7).

1992 doesn't count because Laettner only made 1, but was still an all star and the first two picks were Shaq and Zo.

It's likely that at least one disappoints. But it's not out of the question that all three actually work out.

It's still a little early to evaluate the 2016 class

For the 1994 class, if I had the #1 pick in a draft featuring Jason Kidd and Grant Hill and I ended up with Glen Robinson instead, that's definitely a bust to me

I'll concede that the 1999 draft was the rare occasion where all three top picks worked out

[pacers33granger]

The thing to note is, there's never been a draft where all three players taken in the top 3 end up being stars (defined here as multiple AS selections or better) - it's a statistical certainty that at least one of Cade, Green, or Mobley is going to be a bust

2016 top 3 were Simmons (3 AS appearances), Ingram (1), and Brown (1). Odds are both Ingram and Brown end up with a few more.

1999 had Brand (2), Francis (3), and Davis (2).

1994 had Glenn Robinson (2), Kidd (10), and Grant Hill (7).

1992 doesn't count because Laettner only made 1, but was still an all star and the first two picks were Shaq and Zo.

It's likely that at least one disappoints. But it's not out of the question that all three actually work out.

It's still a little early to evaluate the 2016 class

For the 1994 class, if I had the #1 pick in a draft featuring Jason Kidd and Grant Hill and I ended up with Glen Robinson instead, that's definitely a bust to me

I'll concede that the 1999 draft was the rare occasion where all three top picks worked out

It's semantics, but being really good and worth your draft slot in a vacuum while simultaneously being a step down from the guys drafted next shouldn't make you a bust. Ayton's not a bust because Trae and Luka were drafted after him. Hakeem's not a bust because they could have had Jordan. A guy (Robinson) averaging 20/6 over 11 seasons on good (for the time) percentages is a win for any pick.

And it's early to evaluate 2016, but they're already at the door of the multiple AS appearances criteria.

I would say the near statistically impossible scenario would all become true franchise players. 2016 doesn't have a franchise player. Glenn Robinson wasn't a franchise player. But those drafts had multi-time all stars. The anomaly draft is of course 2003 which had 4 franchise players in the top 5, so I would say it is still possible.

[Scoot McGroot]

2016 top 3 were Simmons (3 AS appearances), Ingram (1), and Brown (1). Odds are both Ingram and Brown end up with a few more.

1999 had Brand (2), Francis (3), and Davis (2).

1994 had Glenn Robinson (2), Kidd (10), and Grant Hill (7).

1992 doesn't count because Laettner only made 1, but was still an all star and the first two picks were Shaq and Zo.

It's likely that at least one disappoints. But it's not out of the question that all three actually work out.

It's still a little early to evaluate the 2016 class

For the 1994 class, if I had the #1 pick in a draft featuring Jason Kidd and Grant Hill and I ended up with Glen Robinson instead, that's definitely a bust to me

I'll concede that the 1999 draft was the rare occasion where all three top picks worked out

It's semantics, but being really good and worth your draft slot in a vacuum while simultaneously being a step down from the guys drafted next shouldn't make you a bust. Ayton's not a bust because Trae and Luka were drafted after him. Hakeem's not a bust because they could have had Jordan. A guy (Robinson) averaging 20/6 over 11 seasons on good (for the time) percentages is a win for any pick.

And it's early to evaluate 2016, but they're already at the door of the multiple AS appearances criteria.

I would say the near statistically impossible scenario would all become true franchise players. 2016 doesn't have a franchise player. Glenn Robinson wasn't a franchise player. But those drafts had multi-time all stars. The anomaly draft is of course 2003 which had 4 franchise players in the top 5, so I would say it is still possible.

Agreed. Glen Robinson may have been a disappointment only in that you could’ve had Grant Hill or Jason Kidd instead, but Milwaukee got a 2 time All-Star that spent 8 years in Milwaukee that averaged 21/6/3, in an era that points were hard to come by, and rarely missed games. His career stats are that he could be in consideration for having his jersey retired in Milwaukee, in theory. Definitely not a bust.

[Pacers Forever]

So in a thread someone equated Sabonis’s value to #5 draft pick. So what draft pick would Turner be equated to since I saw his name mentioned as available ?

[Scoot McGroot]

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Is that Mangas back for his 2nd workout with the Pacers?

[Scoot McGroot]

So in a thread someone equated Sabonis’s value to #5 draft pick. So what draft pick would Turner be equated to since I saw his name mentioned as available ?

Personally, I’d say that in a vacuum, Sabonis is one of many guys around the league that I think is worth anywhere from the 6, to more than the 5 (but less than the 4). If that makes sense. Like, I’d definitely deal Sabonis in this draft for Green or Suggs, but I’d be iffy on moving him for Barnes/Kuminga. For Turner, I’d probably say he’s anywhere from 5-8 straight up. I’d probably swap him for Barnes/Kuminga? I’d MAYBE swap him for a Bouknight/Moody/whomever you think is in that next tier, but wouldn’t be automatic yes on it?

To me, more than anything, I think it’s comparing these guys to whom the draft pick would be, not just the draft pick in number value.

[Pacers Forever]

So in a thread someone equated Sabonis’s value to #5 draft pick. So what draft pick would Turner be equated to since I saw his name mentioned as available ?

Personally, I’d say that in a vacuum, Sabonis is one of many guys around the league that I think is worth anywhere from the 6, to more than the 5 (but less than the 4). If that makes sense. Like, I’d definitely deal Sabonis in this draft for Green or Suggs, but I’d be iffy on moving him for Barnes/Kuminga. For Turner, I’d probably say he’s anywhere from 5-8 straight up. I’d probably swap him for Barnes/Kuminga? I’d MAYBE swap him for a Bouknight/Moody/whomever you think is in that next tier, but wouldn’t be automatic yes on it?

To me, more than anything, I think it’s comparing these guys to whom the draft pick would be, not just the draft pick in number value.

Thanks I just was curious if the Pacers were to trade Turner for a draft pick what it would bring. Not even sure if say Charlotte at 11 would want Turner for their pick plus anything else they’d give us as both their bigs are FA I believe.

Would Pacers have to take salary back in any Turner for a pick trade ?

If the Pacers want to get younger with #11 and #13 Kai Jones could eventually replace Turner’s skills and could also find a replacement for McDermott.

[Scoot McGroot]

So in a thread someone equated Sabonis’s value to #5 draft pick. So what draft pick would Turner be equated to since I saw his name mentioned as available ?

Personally, I’d say that in a vacuum, Sabonis is one of many guys around the league that I think is worth anywhere from the 6, to more than the 5 (but less than the 4). If that makes sense. Like, I’d definitely deal Sabonis in this draft for Green or Suggs, but I’d be iffy on moving him for Barnes/Kuminga. For Turner, I’d probably say he’s anywhere from 5-8 straight up. I’d probably swap him for Barnes/Kuminga? I’d MAYBE swap him for a Bouknight/Moody/whomever you think is in that next tier, but wouldn’t be automatic yes on it?

To me, more than anything, I think it’s comparing these guys to whom the draft pick would be, not just the draft pick in number value.

Thanks I just was curious if the Pacers were to trade Turner for a draft pick what it would bring. Not even sure if say Charlotte at 11 would want Turner for their pick plus anything else they’d give us as both their bigs are FA I believe.

Would Pacers have to take salary back in any Turner for a pick trade ?

Unless a team has cap space or a TPE large enough to absorb Turner, then they would have to include matching salary, anywhere from $13m to $14.4m, minimum.

If the Pacers want to get younger with #11 and #13 Kai Jones could eventually replace Turner’s skills and could also find a replacement for McDermott.

I think that Justin/Kelan could kind of replace Doug immediately, with the return of Warren. But yeah, the question is could we turn Myles into a couple other pieces?

[Pacers Forever]

I agree Justin would cover Doug’s absence in shooting and defense. Only thing Doug did very well that might be missed was cutting and playing off Sabonis. Really that’s not a big deal losing him and let’s us get TJ back.

[Pacers Forever]

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Is that Mangas back for his 2nd workout with the Pacers?

Yes

[Pacers Forever]

I just watched the ESPN mock draft special and they picked Davion Mitchell for us at #13. Sam Perkins hyped his defense as a guard which he was noted for in college. People who aren’t as high on his defense transferring over to the NBA note his size.

[Scoot McGroot]

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[Wizop]

Ford and Hollinger discuss the quality of the draft in a videocast.

Watch on YouTube

[Scoot McGroot]

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[Tom White]

I almost don't want to say this, for obvious reasons, but....Just remember it isn't me saying it, its the "experts".

I can't tell you how many draft prognostications I have seen that have the Pacers taking whichever unathletic white guy is on the board. Some of them even joke that its "because its Indiana. Its what they do" Then they point out players like Leaf, Hansbrough, Plumlee, Croshere, and all the way back to Scott Haskin.

I hate to think that is what many think of us. I hope they are wrong.