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2021 Draft Thread

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#21 » by Scoot McGroot » Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:59 pm

Topofthekey wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:Vastly improved odds at a top 4 pick

Not saying Pacers should intentionally drop out of the playoffs. But Raptors are doing this "not tanking" thing better than Pacers are

They are in great position to bounce back nicely next season, if they indeed do get lucky in the lottery


Raptors are competing for the playoffs, and got kicked out of their country. They also had a major Covid outbreak rip through their entire staff. They’ve suffered through the weirdest season in most any team history in the nba. I don’t think we can say they’re “not tanking well”. They’re suffering terribly.

I mean, we have a lot working against us too

Warren missing the season. Trading Vic 10 games into the season. LeVert missing half the season. New coach who is a first time head coach. Entirely new coaching staff. Players who are a mismatch with the new coach's defensive game plan

But we have somehow managed to squeeze out 4 or 5 more wins than them

Normally, in a vacuum, that is a good thing

But in the bigger scheme of things, in a transitional season where the team is just trying to get its bearings, painstakingly squeezing out a few extra wins compared to the Raptors just means they are positioned much better for the draft than we are

But it is what it is

Let's just hope Aaron and Sumner and Goga get plenty of playing time for the remaining 20 games or so

And as you said previously, hopefully even guys like Kelan Martin and Brian Bowen get a few minutes each game



We’d have to also be kicked out of Indiana and forced to play all our home games in Denver, Colorado, for a somewhat similar situation. While all the other things also happen. And add in a massive Covid outbreak to sweep through the locker room and coaching staff.

But also, Toronto is trying to painstakingly squeeze out a few extra wins, too. They’re just facing massive difficulties in doing so.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#22 » by Wizop » Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:01 pm

Playing in Denver might've been good for this team. We're pretty deep and could play like the Larry Brown and Doug Moe Nuggets running and running at altitude.

To clarify what I said earlier, I meant I don't see anyone in the top 4 that fills our needs. Sure there are potential starters there but we'd have to trade an existing starter to open a spot. Maybe a one and done won't expect to start right away, but if you had a magic wand who would be our perfect pick out of this group?

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#23 » by Wizop » Thu Apr 15, 2021 4:44 pm

There was a graphic on TV in the Clippers game that explained the play-in. I hope I can make it clear.

7 plays 8. the winner is the 7 seed and is out of the lottery. the loser plays another game.

9 plays 10. the loser is done and is in the lottery. the winner plays another game.

the 7/8 loser plays the 9/10 winner. the winner is the 8 seed and is out of the lottery. the loser is done and in the lottery.

so if you survive the play-in, you make the playoffs and are out of the lottery. you are only in the lottery if you miss the playoffs. there is no sweet spot where you both make the playoffs and are in the lottery.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#24 » by Topofthekey » Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:38 am

Wizop wrote:There was a graphic on TV in the Clippers game that explained the play-in. I hope I can make it clear.

7 plays 8. the winner is the 7 seed and is out of the lottery. the loser plays another game.

9 plays 10. the loser is done and is in the lottery. the winner plays another game.

the 7/8 loser plays the 9/10 winner. the winner is the 8 seed and is out of the lottery. the loser is done and in the lottery.

so if you survive the play-in, you make the playoffs and are out of the lottery. you are only in the lottery if you miss the playoffs. there is no sweet spot where you both make the playoffs and are in the lottery.

The sweet spot refers to the win-win outcome for #9 and #10, I'm sorry if I made it confusing earlier

As #9 and #10, you either make the playoffs proper, or go to the lottery with a decent chance of landing a good pick. Both are considered to be good outcomes

Contrast that to #7 and #8. You either make the playoffs proper, but only after having to jump through an extra hoop or two, or you go to the lottery but with terrible odds. Neither are considered desirable outcomes

I say playoffs proper, because there are some people who consider the play in games as part of the playoffs
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#25 » by Wizop » Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:52 am

Topofthekey wrote:I'm sorry if I made it confusing earlier


You didn't confuse me. I just was ignorant about the details before this week.

Edit - I don't see us winning a playoff series other than the 4-5. I see only trouble at 6 through 10. If we can't be 5, I'd happily be 11.

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#26 » by Wizop » Sun Apr 25, 2021 2:35 pm

The draft really opens up when I no longer see 4s as the only need.

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#27 » by Scoot McGroot » Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:47 pm

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This is exaggerative a bit, but I do think that Josh Giddey would be a great add in the middle of the 1st to this roster, ESPECIALLY if you want to add playmakers, or allow yourself more freedom to possibly move Sabonis. He’s an ideal passer/distributor and creator that you can play at the 3/4. He’s a weak defender so far but has size. He’s barely 18 at this point, and really a tall PG, but he’s also a really good rebounder. He’s currently playing pro in Australia and averaging 11/7/7 in 32 minutes a night there, shooting 41/30.5/69 splits, and a 2.35 Assist to TO ratio. He actually won’t turn 19 until training camp. Kind of an Australian Poku, if you will.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#28 » by Wizop » Mon Apr 26, 2021 7:49 pm

8 point 9 seconds is pretty pessimistic.

assuming no starter trade, I have the first unit as Brogdon, LeVert, Warren, Sabonis, and Turner. That makes my 2nd until McConnell, Sumner, Brissett, Goga, and Justin/FRP. I'm thinking that Brissett is the 4 when playing with Justin. The FRP if he can earn minutes should stick to one position and I assume that will be 2, 3. or 4. Sumner (2/3), Justin (2/3/4), and Brissett (3/4) can play the two positions he doesn't play.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#29 » by Scoot McGroot » Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:41 pm

Wizop wrote:8 point 9 seconds is pretty pessimistic.

assuming no starter trade, I have the first unit as Brogdon, LeVert, Warren, Sabonis, and Turner. That makes my 2nd until McConnell, Sumner, Brissett, Goga, and Justin/FRP. I'm thinking that Brissett is the 4 when playing with Justin. The FRP if he can earn minutes should stick to one position and I assume that will be 2, 3. or 4. Sumner (2/3), Justin (2/3/4), and Brissett (3/4) can play the two positions he doesn't play.


I wouldn't pencil in TJ unless we re-sign him, but it'll be tough. Also, I wouldn't pencil in Brissett for major rotation minutes next year, just yet. He's played well against some terrible competition lately, but I'd want to make sure he's not a fluke, yet. With that, I see one guard backup (Sumner), two wing backups (Justin and Lamb), and one big backup (Goga). Everything else is still a toss up for me. I'd still like to swap Lamb, though. Aaron is obviously movable.

But, seeing it listed like this, this is why I feel like we're in for something big. Seeing the fast defensive rotations with guys like Oshae/Sumner in instead of a Sabonis, and you see why Nate would want to maybe step out from the twin towers style of play. Sabonis tries really hard but he just can't play the defense Nate wants to play.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#30 » by Wizop » Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:51 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:I'd still like to swap Lamb, though. Aaron is obviously movable.


me too.

Scoot McGroot wrote:But, seeing it listed like this, this is why I feel like we're in for something big. Seeing the fast defensive rotations with guys like Oshae/Sumner in instead of a Sabonis, and you see why Nate would want to maybe step out from the twin towers style of play. Sabonis tries really hard but he just can't play the defense Nate wants to play.


Sabonis for a true 4 making no more money and earning it makes a lot of sense. just imagine where we'd be if we'd traded him for Randle a year ago. of course, impossible now that Randle has blown up.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#31 » by Scoot McGroot » Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:58 pm

Wizop wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:I'd still like to swap Lamb, though. Aaron is obviously movable.


me too.

Scoot McGroot wrote:But, seeing it listed like this, this is why I feel like we're in for something big. Seeing the fast defensive rotations with guys like Oshae/Sumner in instead of a Sabonis, and you see why Nate would want to maybe step out from the twin towers style of play. Sabonis tries really hard but he just can't play the defense Nate wants to play.


Sabonis for a true 4 making no more money and earning it makes a lot of sense. just imagine where we'd be if we'd traded him for Randle a year ago. of course, impossible now that Randle has blown up.


I'll be honest: I did not see this year coming from Randle. He's always been a black hole offensively with no regard for getting his teammates going. But he's hitting this year, and he's doing it more in the flow of the offense, rather than just dominating all ball traffic. Even then, he's not the type of defender or mobile guy that would fit the PF spot in this type of Nate Bjorkgren ideal defense. You're probably looking for more of a Harrison Barnes type player.

Maybe Sabonis/Lamb/Aaron for Barnes/Bagley/1st (or 1st swap, depending on how wide this range ends up).
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#32 » by Wizop » Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:10 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:I'll be honest: I did not see this year coming from Randle.pe player.


nor did I. it's absolutely a 20/20 hindsight point.

Scoot McGroot wrote:Maybe Sabonis/Lamb/Aaron for Barnes/Bagley/1st (or 1st swap, depending on how wide this range ends up).


I started to write that I didn't want a contract as big as Harrison Barnes' but when I looked it up I found it was front loaded and the biggest year is over.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#33 » by Tom White » Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:30 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:
He’s a weak defender so far but has size.


6'8" 205lb is not what I would call size. Length maybe.

shooting 41/30.5/69 splits


That is not what I would call being a marksman. Surely there is someone else better.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#34 » by Tom White » Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:35 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:I'll be honest: I did not see this year coming from Randle. He's always been a black hole offensively with no regard for getting his teammates going.


I'm going to play a bit of a homer here and say he had Mike Woodson in his ear for a good while.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#35 » by Wizop » Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:52 pm

Tom White wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:I'll be honest: I did not see this year coming from Randle. He's always been a black hole offensively with no regard for getting his teammates going.


I'm going to play a bit of a homer here and say he had Mike Woodson in his ear for a good while.
Would be nice if he could do that in Bloomington.

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#36 » by Tom White » Mon Apr 26, 2021 10:08 pm

Wizop wrote:
Tom White wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:I'll be honest: I did not see this year coming from Randle. He's always been a black hole offensively with no regard for getting his teammates going.


I'm going to play a bit of a homer here and say he had Mike Woodson in his ear for a good while.
Would be nice if he could do that in Bloomington.


He will. I have full faith in Woody. He may have to get more of "his players" in first, but it is gonna happen.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#37 » by Scoot McGroot » Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:35 pm

Tom White wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:
He’s a weak defender so far but has size.


6'8" 205lb is not what I would call size. Length maybe.


Length generally refers to wingspan. Sumner has great length. I don’t know if Giddy has great length, as he’s never been publicly measured for it, that I know. I said size because he’s 6’8”, and he’s barely 18 years old. He’s 205 right now, but he’ll definitely gain a good amount of weight over the next 3 years. Remember, he’s the youngest player in the draft.
shooting 41/30.5/69 splits


That is not what I would call being a marksman. Surely there is someone else better.


I wasn’t referring to him as a marksman. I was sharing some good with the bad. The big thing is, he’s only 18 right now, and has been playing this season, and quite well, in the Australian pro league against real grown men.

But, for example, last year in the same league, at roughly the same age (just a tad older), LaMelo Ball put up 17/8/7 in 31 minutes per night on 38/25/72 splits, and now, his rookie year in the NBA, LaMelo put up 16/6/6 on 45/38/79 splits. Australia is known for being a PHYSICAL league, so there’s also at least a comparable type talent for Giddey in LaMelo, to see how they adjusted from Australia to the NBA.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#38 » by owlwo » Thu Apr 29, 2021 7:01 am

What I find fascinating with Giddey is he is truly ambi-dextrous and has very good handles. I think the LeMelo comparison is fair.
The Pacers need some excitement and I think Giddey could add some of that to the Pacers.
I read somewhere he was 6'8" with a 6'7.5" wingspan. I would like to see the Pacers get a couple picks out of the first
round this year and that would mean trading an asset
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#39 » by Scoot McGroot » Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:49 pm

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread 

Post#40 » by Scoot McGroot » Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:50 pm

owlwo wrote:What I find fascinating with Giddey is he is truly ambi-dextrous and has very good handles. I think the LeMelo comparison is fair.
The Pacers need some excitement and I think Giddey could add some of that to the Pacers.
I read somewhere he was 6'8" with a 6'7.5" wingspan. I would like to see the Pacers get a couple picks out of the first
round this year and that would mean trading an asset


The thing that intrigues me about Giddey is his superb passing skills. I’ve seen him referred to as the best passer in the draft, and I can’t disagree. Plus, at 6’8”, and his super young age, he’s a guy that, as he gains some weight and grows into his body, could reasonably be projected to play at either the 3 or 4 long term. But, I have a feeling he’s going to be one of those guys that drifts higher into the draft than we think, and likely ends up around 7 to 9.

Really, it’s just that he’s the kind of prospect that has an excellent skill to sell you on right away. That’s so rare. Most of the stuff is pure projection (like with Leaf and his “stretch” ability). Goga with his feel for shot blocking was similar.

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