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2021 Free Agency & Off-season

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2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#1 » by Topofthekey » Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:08 am

So, what do you think is the maximum the team is comfortable with paying Doug and TJ?

I expect TJ to garner plenty of interest around the league, with the season that he's having

I imagine there will be a market for Doug as well

The question isn't so much whether the team should re-sign them, but how much to offer them
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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#2 » by Wizop » Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:37 pm

McConnell is probably worth something in the 6 or 7 mm area that Doug and Justin were in this year. I don't see Doug getting a substantial raise or even getting more than TJ. I would try to move Lamb and we hear they tried to move Aaron.

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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#3 » by Wizop » Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:59 pm

rethinking this. what could next year's top 10 look like?

Brogdon, McConnell
LeVert, Summner
Warren, x1
Sabonis, x2
Turner, Goga

so who are x1 and x2? candidates are Doug, Justin, Jakarr, Oshae, Lamb, Martin, and our FRP. I've left our Aaron and Stanley because I think if they're back they're in the mix at 1/2 not 3/4. if Old Nate were the coach, he'd play an 8 man rotation and the question wouldn't come up. I think New Nate will continue to play 10.

Scoot points out that Oshae's second 10 day is about up. we'll know more about whether to pencil him in when we see if we give him a regular contract. I'm betting we will. I think he can be either a 3 or a 4 with our FRP fitting into the other spot depending upon what the draft gives us.

so do we need Doug?
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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#4 » by Scoot McGroot » Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:11 pm

Wizop wrote:rethinking this. what could next year's top 10 look like?

Brogdon, McConnell
LeVert, Summner
Warren, x1
Sabonis, x2
Turner, Goga

so who are x1 and x2? candidates are Doug, Justin, Jakarr, Oshae, Lamb, Martin, and our FRP. I've left our Aaron and Stanley because I think if they're back they're in the mix at 1/2 not 3/4. if Old Nate were the coach, he'd play an 8 man rotation and the question wouldn't come up. I think New Nate will continue to play 10.

Scoot points out that Oshae's second 10 day is about up. we'll know more about whether to pencil him in when we see if we give him a regular contract. I'm betting we will. I think he can be either a 3 or a 4 with our FRP fitting into the other spot depending upon what the draft gives us.

so do we need Doug?


I would plan on Oshae as purely a 4. He could play at 3, but it’d not be best overall for a team.

Otherwise, I think Doug and TJ are in play for up to the full MLE around the league ($10m per year). That raise would merely be “inflation” for Doug. He was signed as nearly MLE equivalent, and I think he could still nab that, especially with his demonstrated slashing skills. TJ is just having a monster season, and is the kind of guy teams would kill for off their bench at PG and in the locker room, and so many teams exhibited massive weakness at the backup PG spot that I think TJ has to get big money.

I only see one possibly returning, maybe neither. I think TJ is much more likely than Doug, as I could see Justin just taking over that Doug role completely with TJ possibly returning.
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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#5 » by Wizop » Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:23 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:I would plan on Oshae as purely a 4. He could play at 3, but it’d not be best overall for a team.


in which case, there is less pressure to find a 4 in the draft although we have so many options at 3 that I'd still rather have another young 4.

I'm finding it harder and hard to find 10mm for Doug unless we can move Lamb to someone with cap room or a trade exemption.
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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#6 » by Scoot McGroot » Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:22 pm

Wizop wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:I would plan on Oshae as purely a 4. He could play at 3, but it’d not be best overall for a team.


in which case, there is less pressure to find a 4 in the draft although we have so many options at 3 that I'd still rather have another young 4.

I'm finding it harder and hard to find 10mm for Doug unless we can move Lamb to someone with cap room or a trade exemption.


Oh, we don’t have that room. We’ve currently got around $16m under the luxury tax for next year if we keep Kelan and Sumner, which would give us 11 players total signed. Kelan has $0 guaranteed, so he could be waived for the roster spot. If we end up in the Lotto, the worst lotto pick will sign for $3.56m, so we’d be at 12 players, and around $12m under the tax line, with Brissett, McConnell, Doug, and Sampson as the only free agents. I could see Brissett at least replacing Sampson as the 5th big, with a little better potential, but I wouldn’t assume anything more. He’s certainly not penciled in as the primary backup and major playing time yet. Not the way our staff handles “prospects”. If we keep Brissett, we’d be around $10.5m under the tax line with 2 spots left to fill on the main roster.

Obviously, this all changes if we move a starter. Moving Lamb would provide a lot of flexibility in overall roster building, salary wise with the tax.

As for Brissett, I’d look at him as 1 of the 2 minimum PF’s or 3/4’s that we absolutely need to add to the roster. And then I see at best Bowen, Stanley, and Martin competing for MAYBE 1 main roster spot and 1 or both of the 2 ways. Realistically, I don’t see all 3 of those guys returning to camp next year.
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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#7 » by Wizop » Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:44 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:And then I see at best Bowen, Stanley, and Martin competing for MAYBE 1 main roster spot and 1 or both of the 2 ways. Realistically, I don’t see all 3 of those guys returning to camp next year.


also in that competition would be any non-Euro stashes we select with 2nd round picks that we choose not to trade. I imagine we'd try to use some 2nds to sweeten moving some unneeded salary - Lamb, Aaron, whoever.
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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#8 » by Topofthekey » Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:57 am

Scoot McGroot wrote:
Wizop wrote:rethinking this. what could next year's top 10 look like?

Brogdon, McConnell
LeVert, Summner
Warren, x1
Sabonis, x2
Turner, Goga

so who are x1 and x2? candidates are Doug, Justin, Jakarr, Oshae, Lamb, Martin, and our FRP. I've left our Aaron and Stanley because I think if they're back they're in the mix at 1/2 not 3/4. if Old Nate were the coach, he'd play an 8 man rotation and the question wouldn't come up. I think New Nate will continue to play 10.

Scoot points out that Oshae's second 10 day is about up. we'll know more about whether to pencil him in when we see if we give him a regular contract. I'm betting we will. I think he can be either a 3 or a 4 with our FRP fitting into the other spot depending upon what the draft gives us.

so do we need Doug?


I would plan on Oshae as purely a 4. He could play at 3, but it’d not be best overall for a team.

Otherwise, I think Doug and TJ are in play for up to the full MLE around the league ($10m per year). That raise would merely be “inflation” for Doug. He was signed as nearly MLE equivalent, and I think he could still nab that, especially with his demonstrated slashing skills. TJ is just having a monster season, and is the kind of guy teams would kill for off their bench at PG and in the locker room, and so many teams exhibited massive weakness at the backup PG spot that I think TJ has to get big money.

I only see one possibly returning, maybe neither. I think TJ is much more likely than Doug, as I could see Justin just taking over that Doug role completely with TJ possibly returning.

I see

So you're saying the team can afford to sign one of them by throwing the full MLE at him

What do you think the chances are of them both deciding to take a discount and split the MLE between them?
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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#9 » by Scoot McGroot » Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:24 pm

Topofthekey wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:
Wizop wrote:rethinking this. what could next year's top 10 look like?

Brogdon, McConnell
LeVert, Summner
Warren, x1
Sabonis, x2
Turner, Goga

so who are x1 and x2? candidates are Doug, Justin, Jakarr, Oshae, Lamb, Martin, and our FRP. I've left our Aaron and Stanley because I think if they're back they're in the mix at 1/2 not 3/4. if Old Nate were the coach, he'd play an 8 man rotation and the question wouldn't come up. I think New Nate will continue to play 10.

Scoot points out that Oshae's second 10 day is about up. we'll know more about whether to pencil him in when we see if we give him a regular contract. I'm betting we will. I think he can be either a 3 or a 4 with our FRP fitting into the other spot depending upon what the draft gives us.

so do we need Doug?


I would plan on Oshae as purely a 4. He could play at 3, but it’d not be best overall for a team.

Otherwise, I think Doug and TJ are in play for up to the full MLE around the league ($10m per year). That raise would merely be “inflation” for Doug. He was signed as nearly MLE equivalent, and I think he could still nab that, especially with his demonstrated slashing skills. TJ is just having a monster season, and is the kind of guy teams would kill for off their bench at PG and in the locker room, and so many teams exhibited massive weakness at the backup PG spot that I think TJ has to get big money.

I only see one possibly returning, maybe neither. I think TJ is much more likely than Doug, as I could see Justin just taking over that Doug role completely with TJ possibly returning.

I see

So you're saying the team can afford to sign one of them by throwing the full MLE at him

What do you think the chances are of them both deciding to take a discount and split the MLE between them?


Essentially, barring other moves, we can use either the full MLE, or the MLE equivalent amount of money on TJ/Doug.

As for them taking a discount and splitting it? I highly doubt it. TJ has earned a large pay increase from his $3.5m salary (which was already the highest of his career, so he has yet to have a MAJOR payday), and Doug has earned at least his salary, if not a full MLE offer elsewhere. Basically, they'd each have to take half of what they're worth to make "splitting" the MLE work. Maybe one sacrifices like that, I've never seen two players sacrifice like that, other than say, Haslem/Miller in Miami with the assembling of the big 3.
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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#10 » by Wizop » Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:51 am

Assume next year we want to start Sumner. The other four come from Myles, LeVert, Sabonis, Brogdon, and Warren with the odd man being moved.

Who do you try hardest to move?

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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#11 » by 8305 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:08 am

I don’t agree with the notion that Pacers largely run this back. Too many redundant pieces and too many obvious holes. It would be mal-practice to make a half assed effort at filling the holes while retaining all the redundancy.

In my mind Turner, Levert and Lamb should be available in hopes of bringing back a 4 and a 1.
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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#12 » by Scoot McGroot » Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:31 am

I have a hunch they would consider moving Warren due to his expiring deal, unless they can come to an extension, though they will be limited to only a 20% raise, much as we were limited in a potential Oladipo extension.

I also think they will look to move one of Turner or Sabonis this offseason. Which one? Maybe depends solely on who returns the most.

I could also possibly see a Lamb/Holiday/+ package being shopped around the draft to possibly clear some space for keeping McConnell or better fits.
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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#13 » by 8305 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 11:13 am

Scoot McGroot wrote:I have a hunch they would consider moving Warren due to his expiring deal, unless they can come to an extension, though they will be limited to only a 20% raise, much as we were limited in a potential Oladipo extension.

I also think they will look to move one of Turner or Sabonis this offseason. Which one? Maybe depends solely on who returns the most.

I could also possibly see a Lamb/Holiday/+ package being shopped around the draft to possibly clear some space for keeping McConnell or better fits.


If they are looking at moving Turner or Sabonis I think the obvious mover is Turner.
1. Sabonis contract extends one year longer. I think a small market team defers the circumstances of dealing with a key UFA as long as possible.
2. Pacers have played Turner out of position for two years now and they attempted to trade him last summer (not exactly the best way creating loyalty from a player)
3. With two years left on his deal Turners value will only go down after this summer.

I don’t think it makes sense to move Warren until he returns and shows he can play.
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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#14 » by Wizop » Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:45 pm

I'm suddenly comfortable with a starting backcourt of Sumner and either Brogdon or LeVert so I'd listen to offers for either. Brogdon is a leader. LeVert is more athletic.

The draft is full of guards and short on 4s. I don't think we need a starter back and the draft should give us a second unit 2. We have a second unit 1 in McConnell.

Brissett changes a lot for me. He has already earned second unit 4. He is ahead on experience of any 4 we could draft and is very young. Next year he'll get minutes with all 3 of our centers making me comfortable bringing Turbonis back at least until the next deadline.

I agree with Scoot that Warren could be shopped. However, I'd rather shop Lamb and Aaron.

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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#15 » by Wizop » Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:52 pm

8305 wrote:If they are looking at moving Turner or Sabonis I think the obvious mover is Turner. ...

I don’t think it makes sense to move Warren until he returns and shows he can play.


I move Sabonis ahead of Turner. But I keep both for now.

It could be good if Warren starts the year on a pitch count as he could be brought off the bench without bruising his ego.

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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#16 » by Topofthekey » Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:09 am

Wizop wrote:Assume next year we want to start Sumner. The other four come from Myles, LeVert, Sabonis, Brogdon, and Warren with the odd man being moved.

Who do you try hardest to move?

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Well, short answer is whoever that fetches the best return

But if it's about opening up room for Sumner, then the most obvious option is LeVert. I think Sumner is capable of doing most of what LeVert does offensively, and he's better defensively as well. He'll be able to keep up with the smaller and quicker guards that Brogdon sometimes have trouble with

Alternatively, it could also be Warren. I can see the team starting 3 guards in their lineup, since Brogdon is strong enough to defend most SFs

Of course, if we want to try thinking out of the box, we can also trade Domas, move Warren to 4, and similarly start 3 guards at 1, 2, and 3. We might end up with 5 guys who stand around and watch each other on offense though, as we've just traded away the best facilitator on the team in Domas

But ideally, I'd love to see the team truly build around Domas on offense by acquiring a high scoring guard who also plays well off the ball. Like say, Bradley Beal. The problem with that is, of course, Beal isn't get-able unless Myles is involved. And if we trade Myles and go with Domas as the team's sole big, then we also need to re-jig the rest of the roster in order to not suck defensively

McCollum might be a cheaper option, but his contract is a concern given his age. Alternatively, Zach Lavine is a possibility, though I haven't seen too much off ball plays from him, but that may be because he's on the Bulls where he has to do everything himself

But assuming Lavine is able to adapt his game to take advantage of Domas' skills, I'd love to be able to trade Warren and LeVert for Lavine

That'll give us a lineup of:

Brogdon, Lavine, Sumner, Domas, Myles
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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#17 » by Topofthekey » Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:12 am

Scoot McGroot wrote:I have a hunch they would consider moving Warren due to his expiring deal, unless they can come to an extension, though they will be limited to only a 20% raise, much as we were limited in a potential Oladipo extension.

I also think they will look to move one of Turner or Sabonis this offseason. Which one? Maybe depends solely on who returns the most.

I could also possibly see a Lamb/Holiday/+ package being shopped around the draft to possibly clear some space for keeping McConnell or better fits.

The problem with moving Warren now is his value is probably really low, after missing most of the season

Hopefully they are able to extend him instead
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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#18 » by Pacers Forever » Mon Apr 26, 2021 1:05 am

Topofthekey wrote:
Scoot McGroot wrote:I have a hunch they would consider moving Warren due to his expiring deal, unless they can come to an extension, though they will be limited to only a 20% raise, much as we were limited in a potential Oladipo extension.

I also think they will look to move one of Turner or Sabonis this offseason. Which one? Maybe depends solely on who returns the most.

I could also possibly see a Lamb/Holiday/+ package being shopped around the draft to possibly clear some space for keeping McConnell or better fits.

The problem with moving Warren now is his value is probably really low, after missing most of the season

Hopefully they are able to extend him instead


I think that would be a great financial move to extend him while his stock is low maybe getting a team friendly longer term contract. Of course his first contract was good for what the Pacers gave up lol ! I like players that can shoot and have the ability and shooters mentality to go until a heat check ! To me he is the closest thing to a pure shooter the Pacers have. Doug McDermott can get very hot but it's almost a game by game deal for him whether it's gonna be a good night from distance. I do love that Doug has really gotten comfortable slashing and driving for easier buckets than long range.
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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#19 » by Wizop » Mon Apr 26, 2021 1:29 am

Warren's injury could make it hard to trade him in the summer, but his health should be clear by the deadline. The problem is finding room for Doug and TJ. Avoiding tax csn be done during the season.

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Re: 2021 Free Agency & Off-season 

Post#20 » by Topofthekey » Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:11 pm

Wizop wrote:Warren's injury could make it hard to trade him in the summer, but his health should be clear by the deadline. The problem is finding room for Doug and TJ. Avoiding tax csn be done during the season.

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Do you mean room as in roster spot, or cap space?

Pacers can re-sign both Doug and TJ with their Bird rights, can't they?

Only concern would be the luxury tax

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