DickGrayson wrote:If you guys remember clearly, Brogdon was 24 when he won rookie of the year. People said it was a fluke ROY because the other young players would eventually develop "better" than him. It turned out Brogdon improved every season and had a break out year in 2021 averaging 21 ppg.
As someone who watched that year, let me tell you that it was not a break out year at all.
And that's alright. Brogdon was a great pick at #36 and I'd be elated if Duarte turns out like him. I simply believe that he'll turn out like Doug McDermott or Justin Holiday. A good role player and nothing more.
How many guys in the league average 21 ppg with 5pg/5apg on 45% FG and 38% 3PT? Who ever is on that list, they are an all star or head honcho of their team.
Per 36 minutes, you can see how Brogdon developed.
From age 24 as a 13ppg per 36
to age 28 as a 22.1 ppg per 36
That's a 9 point difference. Last year it was 19, but still 19 to 22 is a great improvement.
Even compared to two previous seasons Brogdon had, he was sub 20 ppg. Even if his shooting numbers didn't take a leap ahead, that's expected with the usage going up.
His usage went up from 18% to 25%.
Carrying more responsibility and being involved in more possessions is an indication that Brogdon can navigate an offense and be a go to guy when needed. Even if his usage goes up this season, lets say by 2%, he's averaging more points on the same shooting %....that's a legit 22 ppg guy who can dish the rock. This shows Brogdon's growth as a player and how consistent he is now being a 20 ppg scorer. Evolving into a more volume scorer is an improvement to me. I can see your point on how he didn't exactly improve as an all around player because he had the worst defensive rating of his career, clearly him being more focused on the offensive side of the ball.
Brogdon had a career high 15 rebounds this season. Previous season he only had 8 as a season high.
Career high in 3PTM with 7 and points with 36. His highest GmScr with 32.9. The usage is up, but he's producing with the same PER. It's not a massive breakout, but its a break through to what Brogdon did previous seasons. I'm not saying Brogdon is an elite guard, but not many guards in the NBA can post 21 6 5 on good shooting numbers. If they are, they're usually all star caliber.
By the way, all the respect to you. You follow the Pacers more than me and whatever your take on it is totally respected by me. I'm learning more about the team so the more you tell me the better. I hope you don't take it like I'm coming at you because I'm open to admitting my take may be novice and I am all ears because I like to learn more. I'm generally excited what is brewing in Indiana. I think Jackson is a great fit and bringing RC back to the franchise is money.
My take on Duarte: He plays like the go to option and this is with the undeniable fact that Oregon is loaded with scorers. He's a good passer but he does not defer because he's a very natural scorer that shoots efficiently and can shoot from anywhere, he will not hesitate to take a shot. Hard to be a role player when you're constantly on the court creating offense naturally. Even without the ball, Duarte moves well in the half court and will find himself open and can create his own shot. Sure his role won't be big his rookie year, that's why I brought up Brogdon. Guys role and responsibilities increase with experience. They start handling the ball more, sure turnovers go up and FG may stay the same or go down....but the added responsibility shows the coach has trust in his smartest and most ready players.
I believe the Pacers front office wouldn't have wasted a 13 pick in a stacked draft on just a role player. They are ready to give Duarte 13th pick type responsibility. I mean why wouldn't they? Brogdon and LaVert can play multi positions in a positionless game. Duarte will get his shot off and generate alot of offense. Hes the last rookie in this class that will even play like a rookie. You will notice how fearless he is on the court.
DickGrayson wrote:Duarte isn't just a 3 and D, he's top in his class at scoring off the dribble, in transition and off the pick and roll.
Duarte going from running the P&R with Clifford Omoruyi to now having Sabonis and Turner who are both elite....it will open the floor more since Duarte is a deadeye shooter.
Nuntius wrote:Yeah but he's also going to be running the P&R against actual NBA players and not against kids who are 4 and 5 years younger than him.
I expect Duarte to be a gym rat. He got a lot of steals in the Pac-10 because he studied each team extensively and was prepared for what the offense was running. He's like a boxer who study's tape of his opponent before a fight and applies it to gain an edge. Rookies eventually gain experience and apply their skills more efficiently each season. Duarte already has a mature and ready game because he multi dimensional. A great shooter, but he moves very well in half court and finish top in the nation in most categories at his position. Without question, Duarte is making an impact in the NBA as soon as he steps on the court. Guys who can score in transition, deadeye shooter whether it's spotting up, pulling up or off the dribble with P&R play and great defense. Most college scouts have renown Duarte as the best defender in the draft. Guys like Duarte translate well to the NBA because the most important factor is readiness. How much a player prepares for situations in game will determine what level of a player he is. I see Duarte being clutch and making impact for Indiana.
DickGrayson wrote:Duarte has a good chance to finish all rookie first team. It's not that he's NBA ready, he can develop as good as any 19 year old. The same way Brogdon did and earned himself a role in this league.
Nuntius wrote:He'll be 28 and at the end of his peak.
Every player has a different peak. It's not always 28. I can't give you a number. We won't know Duarte's peak until his career is over or we see him decline. For all we know he can peak into 31-32. It happens for players. He can have a freak injury and not even reach a peak at all. Anything can happen.
DickGrayson wrote:Brogdon/Duarte in the backcourt ....Duarte has deceptive speed and will surprise people with athleticism. He's better shooting Zach Lavine with active hands on defense. I wanted CD5 on the Knicks because I believe it would address the Knicks biggest need. I think being away from the NY media it would give CD5 more room to grow and focus.
I mean, if Duarte is Zach Lavine with active hands on defense then this was a home run. Lavine is an All-Star that plays minimal defense. If he played defense as well, he'd probably be an All-NBA guy. I really hope that Duarte is anything clsoe to that. If he is, I'll gladly eat gobs of crow
I believe Indiana can form a consistent and strong backcourt with Brogdon/LaVert who are more offensive minded and Duarte comes in relieving that offense and providing action on defense. Whether it's off the bench, I believe he'll get a big enough role to make all rookie team. He's an underrated rebounder, averaged 7 rpg at JUCO. He's very sneaky, sees play ahead of him. That type of player RC will always lean towards. If I'm wrong I'll hold the L and eat crow.
DickGrayson wrote:I'm also a fan of Moody, but Duarte is more creative offensive and has better handles. Moody would need a PG to get his offense off until he develops. Duarte is a sure thing and can run an offense. He's a gym rat who study tape constantly. Indiana trusted Duarte with the 13 pick for a reason.
Nuntius wrote: We trusted him because he was the safest pick. That's not a good reason, imo.
RC said it himself that Duarte was the best player available. If he has that much confidence and yes it's just Head Coach being a Head Coach, but RC has a great track record with evaluating talent. Alot of great wing players have been coached by him...Duarte is probably with the best staff to develop and make people forget about his age. if I'm wrong I'll take that L
Hard to be a role player when all your movements mimic the same tendencies and styles of Devin Booker/Zach Lavine. The pull ups off set plays, off screen and off dribble jumpers, the stepbacks, spot ups, sneaky explosiveness. Guys who can get off their shot and utilize the floor with or without the ball. Duarte's ball handling is underrated and his finishing is efficient. This is everything Rick wants in a SG.