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ESPN Article - (no paywall)

Looking at the past 2 league expansions to make some predictions about how future expansion might work. Pretty good explanation. Many of the key points we've already discussed here,... but then they take it a step further & assuming a 25-26 expansion season (very unlikely, but you lose some of the thought process if you try to project it further),.. they hold a mock expansion draft.

Number 2 selected is Johnny Furphy of the Pacers.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/41300098/what-nba-expansion-draft-look-future

Much more likely scenario is 27-28 season. (which is way too far out to project contracts/players,...) If we continue to resign our players, we would have as follows:

Tyrese - under contract
Pascal - under contract
Myles - assuming we resign him next summer for a 3 year or longer contract - under contract
Obi - under contract
Nesmith = UFA - don't need to be protected, but will need to be re-signed.
McConnell - under contract / 5M guarantee with a club option on 28-29
Mathurin - assuming he is extended for at least 2 years - under contract
Walker - RFA - will have to be protected if we want to keep his rights
Jackson - if he is extended next summer for 3 years or longer - under contract
Shepp - RFA - will have to be protected if we want to keep his rights
Andrew - under contract
Brown - I am going to guess that he is gone
JJ - he's on a year by year so, UFA - won't need to be protected
Furphy - team option, - likely under contract,... worst case, he could be a RFA & would need to be protected.
Wiseman - if he works out & is resigned for 2 or more years - under contract - could time an extension so he is a UFA?

Edit: Oh yeah,... forgot,.. and a 25 first round pick - under contract. Most likely - no 26 first rounder as that (1-4 protected) is in the hands of the Raptors. We would have a 27 first round pick, but I think (correct me if I'm wrong here Scoot), but the expansion would take place before the rookie draft? (that would make sense based on the article as picks in the same summer as the expansion were traded during their 'expansion draft'.)

No idea how they would handle 2-ways, as they didn't exist during the last expansions?

Just looking at what we know now,... who do we keep? who do we risk making draftable?....

Does anyone think that the league office starting to take expansion seriously could provide a push for the Pacers to make a consolidation trade prior to an expansion? to be able to keep the talent level, if not the depth?

Just a conversation starter to get some opinions while we wait for training camp to start. LOL

Historically, an expansion draft has taken place before the player draft. Other rules to keep in mind are that pending unrestricted free agents are undraftable, and pending restricted free agents can be drafted, but would become unrestricted free agents. I would assume two way players would be handled under this same process as the rest of the roster. Also, a team must leave at least one player unprotected.

In general, I could see Indy being ok with losing a 2nd rounder/end of the bench type talent. I also think that someone like TJ McConnell, who would be entering his age 35 season then, might be left unprotected? Or an Obi Toppin if he’s still on the roster? Or maybe even, god forbid, if Siakam starts to show his age, maybe he’s left unprotected as a date to select a then $52+m salary at age 33? Lots of gamesmanship go into these processes, and teams can also pay via draft picks to have a player selected in the expansion draft.

Scoot McGroot wrote:Also, a team must leave at least one player unprotected.

past expansion drafts have allowed you to protect only 8 players. I assume the minimum of one is for the situation where a team has no more than 8 players under contract.

Wizop wrote:

Scoot McGroot wrote:Also, a team must leave at least one player unprotected.

past expansion drafts have allowed you to protect only 8 players. I assume the minimum of one is for the situation where a team has no more than 8 players under contract.

Correct. In certain cases, a team could have a lot of unrestricted free agents, thus free from selection in an expansion draft.

hmmm,.. I know expansion isn't covered in the CBA,... and the trade rules don't apply to selections,.. but,... could an expansion team select a player, then trade that player back to the team that lost him?..... o0

I wouldn't think that would be allowed,.. but can't remember it ever being discussed or tested?

JMaster5K wrote:hmmm,.. I know expansion isn't covered in the CBA,... and the trade rules don't apply to selections,.. but,... could an expansion team select a player, then trade that player back to the team that lost him?..... o0

I wouldn't think that would be allowed,.. but can't remember it ever being discussed or tested?

I have a vague recollection of teams making deals so a particular player wouldn't be taken.

JMaster5K wrote:hmmm,.. I know expansion isn't covered in the CBA,... and the trade rules don't apply to selections,.. but,... could an expansion team select a player, then trade that player back to the team that lost him?..... o0

I wouldn't think that would be allowed,.. but can't remember it ever being discussed or tested?

No. Any player selected in the expansion draft couldn’t return back to the team they were selected from for one full season, whether via trade or re signing. So, if a restricted free agent is selected, and deemed an unrestricted free agent, they can’t just re sign with their old team.

Wizop wrote:

JMaster5K wrote:hmmm,.. I know expansion isn't covered in the CBA,... and the trade rules don't apply to selections,.. but,... could an expansion team select a player, then trade that player back to the team that lost him?..... o0

I wouldn't think that would be allowed,.. but can't remember it ever being discussed or tested?

I have a vague recollection of teams making deals so a particular player wouldn't be taken.

Yeah,... they can deal to keep certain players, or get certain players selected. (i.e. Pacers send an unprotected first to LVS [Los Vegas Strippers - named after the slang term for the famous street,.. not the act.] to select KBrown instead of Tyrese - yes I know he won't be in the expansion draft,.. just making a glaringly obvious hypothetical.) =}

I just wasn't sure what the rules were on re-acquiring a player you lost in the expansion draft. ('wasn't sure' = 'completely ignorant about')

Thanks Scoot for the help.

JMaster5K wrote:

Wizop wrote:

JMaster5K wrote:hmmm,.. I know expansion isn't covered in the CBA,... and the trade rules don't apply to selections,.. but,... could an expansion team select a player, then trade that player back to the team that lost him?..... o0

I wouldn't think that would be allowed,.. but can't remember it ever being discussed or tested?

I have a vague recollection of teams making deals so a particular player wouldn't be taken.

Yeah,... they can deal to keep certain players, or get certain players selected. (i.e. Pacers send an unprotected first to LVS [Los Vegas Strippers - named after the slang term for the famous street,.. not the act.] to select KBrown instead of Tyrese - yes I know he won't be in the expansion draft,.. just making a glaringly obvious hypothetical.) =}

I just wasn't sure what the rules were on re-acquiring a player you lost in the expansion draft. ('wasn't sure' = 'completely ignorant about')

Thanks Scoot for the help.

Of course Mate! And the caveat that every expansion draft has been written differently, so we never know for sure until they add new teams and release the new expansion draft info.

JMaster5K wrote:hmmm,.. I know expansion isn't covered in the CBA,... and the trade rules don't apply to selections,.. but,... could an expansion team select a player, then trade that player back to the team that lost him?..... o0

I wouldn't think that would be allowed,.. but can't remember it ever being discussed or tested?

I would think not, but a team might say to one of the expansion teams, "You take this guy and we'll give you 2-3 2nds" This gets a guy you don't want off your roster and then your other guys are safe.