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The Sports books published their first, early bird win/loss predictions for the 2025-26 NBA season. I took an average of the predictions from DraftKings, FanDuel, & BetMGM to come up with a composite figure. This has the pacers finishing with 39.2 wins, and well,... 43 losses.

Based on the predictions for all teams, that would have us finishing 19th in the league, which would have us 9th in the East & making the play-in. That record would also have us with the 12th pick in the 2026 draft.

I know this is way early,... but what do you guys think? Are we over or under 39 wins? or is too early to start this?...

I nailed last year's record prediction *to the exact number* - viewtopic.php?f=17&t=2411200

So I'm going to go ahead and call it now. The Pacers will finish with a 43-39 record. I do not know what seed that will make them in the East.

I think there are 3 major scenarios to consider:
1) Nembhard turns the flashes of brilliance (and general grit) into sustained borderline-stardom as a focal point. If he takes that step, I think they'd manage 47-48 wins. So many of the other players know exactly how to play now. And Nembhard has the skills. A sustained 17/8/4 line would do a lot to stabilize things. If he trades some of his effort on defense for effort on offense, that would help a team that needs to keep its flow without Haliburton.
2) Siakam loses his edge. He came here to play with Haliburton and Turner. He's already 31. Maybe his level of effort drops, he gets the minor injury bug, and/or he tries to engineer a move. He seems like such a professional, but stranger things have happened. That would sap the team's energy, and I could see a 33 win season, or even a full-on tank with everyone suddenly noticing their minor injuries.
3) More of the same, minus Haliburton. I think the bigs will find a way to manage 75% of Myles' value. I'd still pick the over, at 41 wins. Siakam, Nesmith, Nembhard, Mathurin, McConnell, and Toppin can still make a lot of winning plays. And that finals run should have cemented the understanding of what it takes.

The Pacers have enough good players. I've seen enough of Mathurin's game and attitude to know he probably won't be a high level starter (would love if he proved me wrong). So his development will matter in terms of long term assets, but I doubt it'll make a big difference in our win total. If he stagnates, we'll have other players to step up. If he thrives, they'll lose opportunities. I just don't see how he's worth as much to the Pacers as he would be to a team more suited to his skill set.

I'm cautiously optimistic that the first scenario is the most likely. So I'll go with 47 wins.

The wildcard is Nesmith. He's shown a clever midrange game at times, which would unlock a deadly element to his game. But his handle is so poor that he can't get those looks unless the opponent is unprepared. If he can tighten that up, the sky is the limit. But I don't think it's likely.

jowglenn wrote:I nailed last year's record prediction *to the exact number* - viewtopic.php?f=17&t=2411200

So I'm going to go ahead and call it now. The Pacers will finish with a 43-39 record. I do not know what seed that will make them in the East.

Based on the over/unders, 43 wins would have us 7th or 8th in the East,... top half of the play-in. Still have us in the lottery.

jowglenn wrote:I nailed last year's record prediction *to the exact number* - viewtopic.php?f=17&t=2411200

So I'm going to go ahead and call it now. The Pacers will finish with a 43-39 record. I do not know what seed that will make them in the East.

Yes! you were right on the mark! Congrats, mate! Have you down for the first poster at 43.

Thanks for the reminder,... we never did recognize the poster from 23-24. Xbulletproof was the first to say 45-50. We had a 47 win season. viewtopic.php?f=17&t=2320255&hilit=prediction#p108275134

(though there were a couple of later posters who said 45+)

JMaster5K wrote:Based on the predictions for all teams, that would have us finishing 19th in the league, which would have us 9th in the East & making the play-in. That record would also have us with the 12th pick in the 2026 draft.

It's not that simple. The first round of the playin is 9 v 10. the loser drops into the lottery. The winner plays the loser of the 7-8 game (the 7-8 winner is the 7 seed). The winner of that game becomes the 8 seed and the loser drops into the lottery.

So if we are a play-in team, our draft pick will not be determined until after the play-in games.

Before even seeing the Vegas line, my guess was going to be 40 but I felt that this was probably a little optimistic. Clearly, we'll take a step back with all these missing pieces, but I'm interested to see what we can lay the groundwork for going ahead. I think the East is still kind of a mess and we have enough veterans that we won't be any worse than mediocre. The important thing won't be the W/L column, but seeing how guys like Mathurin and Walker can do and whether we can unearth a center. I guess one other aspect I'll be interested in is how these other players return from achilles injuries since that has some bearing on my optimism going forward as well.

We will be better defensively, slightly worse offensively. I am going full homer here and say 50-32 again with a a 4/5 seed.
After our slow start last season due to injuries we were a 59/60 win team(projections). Too much talent and too deep to tank.

Wizop wrote:

JMaster5K wrote:Based on the predictions for all teams, that would have us finishing 19th in the league, which would have us 9th in the East & making the play-in. That record would also have us with the 12th pick in the 2026 draft.

It's not that simple. The first round of the playin is 9 v 10. the loser drops into the lottery. The winner plays the loser of the 7-8 game (the 7-8 winner is the 7 seed). The winner of that game becomes the 8 seed and the loser drops into the lottery.

So if we are a play-in team, our draft pick will not be determined until after the play-in games.

Yup,... knew that. We also might not have the 12th pick, with the 12th worst record because of the lottery changing the order. I wasn't trying to say we actually have 'the 12th pick',...(even though that was what I said), but that we would slotted as the 12th worst team,.. play-in & Lottery TBD.