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The Sports books published their first, early bird win/loss predictions for the 2025-26 NBA season. I took an average of the predictions from DraftKings, FanDuel, & BetMGM to come up with a composite figure. This has the pacers finishing with 39.2 wins, and well,... 43 losses.

Based on the predictions for all teams, that would have us finishing 19th in the league, which would have us 9th in the East & making the play-in. That record would also have us with the 12th pick in the 2026 draft.

I know this is way early,... but what do you guys think? Are we over or under 39 wins? or is too early to start this?...

I nailed last year's record prediction *to the exact number* - viewtopic.php?f=17&t=2411200

So I'm going to go ahead and call it now. The Pacers will finish with a 43-39 record. I do not know what seed that will make them in the East.

I think there are 3 major scenarios to consider:
1) Nembhard turns the flashes of brilliance (and general grit) into sustained borderline-stardom as a focal point. If he takes that step, I think they'd manage 47-48 wins. So many of the other players know exactly how to play now. And Nembhard has the skills. A sustained 17/8/4 line would do a lot to stabilize things. If he trades some of his effort on defense for effort on offense, that would help a team that needs to keep its flow without Haliburton.
2) Siakam loses his edge. He came here to play with Haliburton and Turner. He's already 31. Maybe his level of effort drops, he gets the minor injury bug, and/or he tries to engineer a move. He seems like such a professional, but stranger things have happened. That would sap the team's energy, and I could see a 33 win season, or even a full-on tank with everyone suddenly noticing their minor injuries.
3) More of the same, minus Haliburton. I think the bigs will find a way to manage 75% of Myles' value. I'd still pick the over, at 41 wins. Siakam, Nesmith, Nembhard, Mathurin, McConnell, and Toppin can still make a lot of winning plays. And that finals run should have cemented the understanding of what it takes.

The Pacers have enough good players. I've seen enough of Mathurin's game and attitude to know he probably won't be a high level starter (would love if he proved me wrong). So his development will matter in terms of long term assets, but I doubt it'll make a big difference in our win total. If he stagnates, we'll have other players to step up. If he thrives, they'll lose opportunities. I just don't see how he's worth as much to the Pacers as he would be to a team more suited to his skill set.

I'm cautiously optimistic that the first scenario is the most likely. So I'll go with 47 wins.

The wildcard is Nesmith. He's shown a clever midrange game at times, which would unlock a deadly element to his game. But his handle is so poor that he can't get those looks unless the opponent is unprepared. If he can tighten that up, the sky is the limit. But I don't think it's likely.

jowglenn wrote:I nailed last year's record prediction *to the exact number* - viewtopic.php?f=17&t=2411200

So I'm going to go ahead and call it now. The Pacers will finish with a 43-39 record. I do not know what seed that will make them in the East.

Based on the over/unders, 43 wins would have us 7th or 8th in the East,... top half of the play-in. Still have us in the lottery.

jowglenn wrote:I nailed last year's record prediction *to the exact number* - viewtopic.php?f=17&t=2411200

So I'm going to go ahead and call it now. The Pacers will finish with a 43-39 record. I do not know what seed that will make them in the East.

Yes! you were right on the mark! Congrats, mate! Have you down for the first poster at 43.

Thanks for the reminder,... we never did recognize the poster from 23-24. Xbulletproof was the first to say 45-50. We had a 47 win season. viewtopic.php?f=17&t=2320255&hilit=prediction#p108275134

(though there were a couple of later posters who said 45+)

JMaster5K wrote:Based on the predictions for all teams, that would have us finishing 19th in the league, which would have us 9th in the East & making the play-in. That record would also have us with the 12th pick in the 2026 draft.

It's not that simple. The first round of the playin is 9 v 10. the loser drops into the lottery. The winner plays the loser of the 7-8 game (the 7-8 winner is the 7 seed). The winner of that game becomes the 8 seed and the loser drops into the lottery.

So if we are a play-in team, our draft pick will not be determined until after the play-in games.

Before even seeing the Vegas line, my guess was going to be 40 but I felt that this was probably a little optimistic. Clearly, we'll take a step back with all these missing pieces, but I'm interested to see what we can lay the groundwork for going ahead. I think the East is still kind of a mess and we have enough veterans that we won't be any worse than mediocre. The important thing won't be the W/L column, but seeing how guys like Mathurin and Walker can do and whether we can unearth a center. I guess one other aspect I'll be interested in is how these other players return from achilles injuries since that has some bearing on my optimism going forward as well.

We will be better defensively, slightly worse offensively. I am going full homer here and say 50-32 again with a a 4/5 seed.
After our slow start last season due to injuries we were a 59/60 win team(projections). Too much talent and too deep to tank.

Wizop wrote:

JMaster5K wrote:Based on the predictions for all teams, that would have us finishing 19th in the league, which would have us 9th in the East & making the play-in. That record would also have us with the 12th pick in the 2026 draft.

It's not that simple. The first round of the playin is 9 v 10. the loser drops into the lottery. The winner plays the loser of the 7-8 game (the 7-8 winner is the 7 seed). The winner of that game becomes the 8 seed and the loser drops into the lottery.

So if we are a play-in team, our draft pick will not be determined until after the play-in games.

Yup,... knew that. We also might not have the 12th pick, with the 12th worst record because of the lottery changing the order. I wasn't trying to say we actually have 'the 12th pick',...(even though that was what I said), but that we would slotted as the 12th worst team,.. play-in & Lottery TBD.

I haven’t made my prediction yet and will wait to look at the schedule. However I found this while planning my fall trip to Indiana to visit my kids and grandson.



The 2025-2026 NBA season officially begins on October 21, 2025. While the specific schedule for the Indiana Pacers is not yet available, the regular season will commence on that date.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:
Preseason: Teams will play 4 preseason games before the regular season starts, giving fans a chance to see new players and strategies.
NBA China Games: Two preseason games, the Nets vs. Suns, will be played in Macao on October 10 and 12.
Roster Deadline: Rosters for Opening Day must be set by 5 p.m. ET on October 20.
Opening Night: The 2025-26 NBA regular season will officially begin on October 21.

The Pacers preseason home games are
Thunder on Saturday Oct. 11th
Spurs on Monday Oct. 13th

JMaster5K wrote:The Sports books published their first, early bird win/loss predictions for the 2025-26 NBA season. I took an average of the predictions from DraftKings, FanDuel, & BetMGM to come up with a composite figure. This has the pacers finishing with 39.2 wins, and well,... 43 losses.

Based on the predictions for all teams, that would have us finishing 19th in the league, which would have us 9th in the East & making the play-in. That record would also have us with the 12th pick in the 2026 draft.

I know this is way early,... but what do you guys think? Are we over or under 39 wins? or is too early to start this?...

My guess right now is 40-43 wins if they stay healthy partly depending on what happens with Boston, and Philly. They might end up as high as 6th in the East but most likely 8-9th.

I think a lot of this next season is depending on Benn Mathurin if he really plays well and does what I think he can do they'll have a better record if not a lower record. If he does what I think he can do the Pacers are gonna have to figure out how to pay him what he's going to want. It will be the Turner situation all over again and the 2026-27 team will have to figure out what to do with Walker. That luxury tax is going to be a constant problem as long as they have the big contracts of Haliburton and Siakam.

I've been seeing a lot of speculation in the Media that the Pacers might trade Mathurin rather than give him a big contract. I think his play this season will determine what happens. The better he plays the more he will get paid. This will make it harder to let go of him, but if his salary put the Pacers in the tax they might have to move him. Like I said in the other post they'll have the same issue next year with Walker if he develops.

Carlisle among other things touts Caitlin.

https://1075thefan.com/600962/rick-carlisle-returns-for-expansive-interview/

?s=46&t=9ViPZrC6T8ng6kcZke0I5g


For those who watch more than the Pacers games. New options since TNT is done.

It depends on what the fo plans to prioritize this year :

- developp our young players? from 35 to 42 wins

- wins ? From 45 to 55. We were so underrated last year, pacers fan were the only ones to really understand that our team was elite. we still have a solid team even without tyrese. We won't be contenders next year but we have enough talent to go to ECF if we are lucky enough to a avoid Cleveland and New York.

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davidfr94 wrote:It depends on what the fo plans to prioritize this year :

- develop our young players? from 35 to 42 wins

- wins ? From 45 to 55.

I don't see Carlisle taking losses by playing guys who haven't earned their minutes. so I don't see a big difference unless they trade Mathurin or Nesmith.

I didn't put in a prediction when this thread started,... just wanted to see how more of the summer worked out.

But, I think, at this point,... I'll have to go 'full Pacers homer',.... I believe from what I've seen that the players & coaches will figure it out. I'll predict another 50 win season, and a reasonable playoff run. That of course will lead to all kinds of questions next summer,... but that's for next summer. It would also be very 'Pacer-like' to exceed expectations as an underdog, which in turn creates more speculation about where they go from here.

Edit: My heart says 50,... my belief says 50,... my brain says 43.

JMaster5K wrote:Edit: My heart says 50,... my belief says 50,... my brain says 43.

I'm always optimistic in the summer but I can't get over around 45. Best result could be to make the play-in, but lose and drop into the lottery.

Wizop wrote:

JMaster5K wrote:Edit: My heart says 50,... my belief says 50,... my brain says 43.

I'm always optimistic in the summer but I can't get over around 45. Best result could be to make the play-in, but lose and drop into the lottery.

Then have our first ‘Mavs moment’ & get drawn in the top 3, of a stacked draft, when we started with < a 4% chance. Yeah,… I can dream.