Playoffs or draft pick?

[notque]

I have been in the draft pick camp for probably a solid year now. DJ Augustine is sitting there waiting for us if we just lose well till the end of the year.

What do you guys think? The signing of Flip, and the commitment to winning has me rethinking it. Since we flat out aren't going to tank, I might as well root for wins?

[FreeRon]

Unless we get one of the top 3 picks we're pretty much just as well off making the playoffs...and with where we're at now, a top-3 pick isn't extremely likely. In other words, I'd rather we make the playoffs.

[cdash]

Draft pick, easy. I couldnt disagree more with the post directly above me. First, I think there is a drop off after the first two picks (Beasley and Rose). Second, if we make the playoffs we get the 17th pick. If we miss the playoffs, there are at least three Western Conference teams with better records than us, so we are around the 13th pick at worst. What would getting to the playoffs help? You know exactly what would happen if we made it. We are the 8th seed, and we get ransacked by Boston or Detroit. Four games and out wouldnt do a whole lot to help matters at this point.

[CableKC]

The difference between missing the Playoffs and making it is about 4 to 7 draft spots. If we miss the Playoffs....we will likely get the 7 to ( more then likely ) the 10th draft pick...if we make the Playoffs...we will get the 15th pick.

[Miller4ever]

I ALWAYS root for wins, but I guess I'm just too childish.

Although, we should consider that the point of building is to find guys in the draft, but also giving the young players you currently have ample experience. And the most valuable would be playoff experience. I'd rather have a few #10-20 picks get experience (Granger, Ike, *Shawne) than get a young team that doesn't understand the meaning of winning in the playoffs. Plus, I think that tanking, while on a completely mathematical point of view gives us a better chance with better players, I believe that the more important thing is the integrity of our organization. We shouldn't throw a season away ever. There's been years where momentum at the end of a failing, 9th seed season has carried over into the next year (although I can't think of any off the top of my head).

Also, tanking one season leads to a trend of tanking from other teams, and pretty soon, tanking will be more fashionable than buyouts. *ahem*

I'd rather our team earn their money, do their jobs as basketball players. Keeping your head up does more for both a franchise's reputation and respect than resigning to defeat. Tanking is the equivalent of giving up. Forgive me for being a cliche artist, but Pacers are NOT quitters.

To cdash:

You say there is a dropoff after the first two picks. By your own logic, plus the truth that no matter how hard we try, we cannot physically get a worse record than Miami or Minnesota or Memphis (our team name doesn't start with an 'M'), so I assume you know that the chances of us getting those two are impossible.

Now, history has told us that an eye for talent is better than a high pick without one. We got Danny Granger around that range, didn't we? Realistically, we wouldn't get far at all in the playoffs, but the fact that we tried means much more. Tanking is, excuse my harsh opinion, a gutless act and unsportsmanlike.

[Bucky O'Hare]

Pick, easily. The odds of landing a very good to great player between #7-10 is far greater than between #15-20. I'd take those better chances over being slaughtered by Boston or Detroit in the playoffs. This playoff experience talk carries very little weight imo.

[notque]

The odds of landing a very good to great player is much higher. I don't agree the odds are the same, and Granger as a comparison is a really bad one. That isn't going to happen again for us.

The difference between D.J. Augustine and Collison is great. I could see Augustine being a great point guard for us. Collison, I'm less high on.

[count55]

I agree with M4E...I always root for wins...

Plus...here's a quick list of our top 10 picks:

Erick Dampier (10)
George McCloud (7)
Rik Smits (2)
Chuck Person (4)
Wayman Tisdale (2)
Steve Stipanovich (2)
Clark Kellogg (8 )
Rick Robey (3)

Yes, there are some solid-to-good players in there (and who knows how good Clark would've been had his knees not given out), but not a single one I'd go in the tank to get.

Most times, draft picks are a lot more valuable and attractive before you actually use them. Kind of like a scratch-off lottery ticket (with maybe slightly better odds of some kind of payoff). Even losing last year's pick...it wasn't that we lost the pick, or that we lost Acie Law (who I think will be a career backup)...what sucked was that it was literally the worst possible outcome: the 11th pick on a top 10 protected pick that bothered me.

I just have the feeling that if we tanked to miss the playoffs, then ended up with some iffy schmuck like OJ Mayo, I couldn't get the stench off with a year in a chemical shower.

So...keep JO & JT out until they're 100%, but I think the team should try to win every game they play. If they don't, then they're simply not worth a damn.

[cdash]

I ALWAYS root for wins, but I guess I'm just too childish.

Although, we should consider that the point of building is to find guys in the draft, but also giving the young players you currently have ample experience. And the most valuable would be playoff experience. I'd rather have a few #10-20 picks get experience (Granger, Ike, *Shawne) than get a young team that doesn't understand the meaning of winning in the playoffs. Plus, I think that tanking, while on a completely mathematical point of view gives us a better chance with better players, I believe that the more important thing is the integrity of our organization. We shouldn't throw a season away ever. There's been years where momentum at the end of a failing, 9th seed season has carried over into the next year (although I can't think of any off the top of my head).

Also, tanking one season leads to a trend of tanking from other teams, and pretty soon, tanking will be more fashionable than buyouts. *ahem*

I'd rather our team earn their money, do their jobs as basketball players. Keeping your head up does more for both a franchise's reputation and respect than resigning to defeat. Tanking is the equivalent of giving up. Forgive me for being a cliche artist, but Pacers are NOT quitters.

To cdash:

You say there is a dropoff after the first two picks. By your own logic, plus the truth that no matter how hard we try, we cannot physically get a worse record than Miami or Minnesota or Memphis (our team name doesn't start with an 'M'), so I assume you know that the chances of us getting those two are impossible.

Now, history has told us that an eye for talent is better than a high pick without one. We got Danny Granger around that range, didn't we? Realistically, we wouldn't get far at all in the playoffs, but the fact that we tried means much more. Tanking is, excuse my harsh opinion, a gutless act and unsportsmanlike.

I am not saying the players after the top 2 arent good, I just think they are head and shoulders above the rest of the draft class. I dont know if you know this, but you dont have to have one of the two worst records in the league to get a top 2 pick, hence the lottery. Portland and Seattle lucked out last year getting the top 2 picks, and while there isnt a good chance that it happens to us, its still better than making the playoffs and getting lambasted in the first round.

That Danny Granger draft was dumb. Most people had him as a top 7 or 8 prospect in that draft and he inexplicably fell to 17. I dont think you can hope for that kind of luck every year in the draft. That is the exception, not the rule. I dont like the idea of tanking either, and I am not suggesting that we do tank, but the fact of the matter is the way the league and lottery is set up, it actaully behooves teams to tank. I dont like it, but thats the way it is.

[Grang33r]

We wouldn't draft Mayo. No way. No how.

Obie wouldn't want him. Bird wouldn't want him. This team wouldn't want him.

Bad comparison to use to justify your point, but in general a sound argument.

If Augustine had a higher shooting percentage, I'd probably care much more.

Totally. The other day i was listening to Fox Sports radio and they had one of their NBA experts on and he called OJ Mayo "Ron Artest Jr". LOL that is all that needs to be said about his possibility of coming to Indy.

[Miller4ever]

the fact of the matter is the way the league and lottery is set up, it actaully behooves teams to tank. I dont like it, but thats the way it is.

I know about the lottery, but our chances for a high pick are slim with way worse teams with more bubbles in the machine. And are you saying that, just because the league lends itself to tanking, that we should?

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

If we are going to try and win we need to bring JO and Tinsley back. We all know Tinsley is fine, his day to day injurys always end up being weeks cuz his heart isn't in the game. I'm assuming JO is well enough to start slowly working him back into the lineup.

[Miller4ever]

As for Tinsley's heart not being in the game, I think (or hope) that that is false, because this season has given him reason to be play with enthusiasm, and he has been up until the injury, which would explain his good numbers. I'm also not sure if JO is ready.

Nonetheless, keep winning Pacers!

[cdash]

-= original quote snipped =-



I know about the lottery, but our chances for a high pick are slim with way worse teams with more bubbles in the machine. And are you saying that, just because the league lends itself to tanking, that we should?

No, I am not saying we should at all. I dont like tanking, and I dont want to see my team do it. It does make sense to do though. I mean, if you arent going to make the playoffs (or if you do make it, you get swept in round one) anyway, what is to stop you from tanking? It improves your odds of getting a top 3 pick (slightly, but it still benefits) and with it, a higher impact player. I am just saying the system has no repercussions for tanking, and there is little reason not to if you are out of the playoff hunt.

[Dunthreevy]

Unless we're going to go into the playoffs and be what Golden State was out west last year, I say we should play for lottery position. I HATE watching the P's lose. It genuinely puts me in a bad mood. At the same time though, I'll accept some more losses this season if it means building a winning team for the very near future. I don't know if I can take several losing seasons in a row though. I might just quit watching basketball all together if that happens.

[Grang33r]

Unless we're going to go into the playoffs and be what Golden State was out west last year, I say we should play for lottery position. I HATE watching the P's lose. It genuinely puts me in a bad mood. At the same time though, I'll accept some more losses this season if it means building a winning team for the very near future. I don't know if I can take several losing seasons in a row though. I might just quit watching basketball all together if that happens.

I agree. This isn't like any of the other major sports leagues. This isn't baseball where you have no name prospects who turn 26 years old and become stars. Or football and hockey where you can pick sleepers in a 7 round draft. It's rare anyone from the 2nd round is any good in the NBA.

To fully rebuild an NBA franchise, it can only be done by 2 ways.

1. Getting lucky in the draft... having a high pick, and making the right choice. Just because we have the high pick doesn't mean we're bound for success.

2. Trading for a troubled star who "turns" it around. Ie. Garnett. T-Mac. Carter. And such. Probably unlikey because we don't have the peices to land that "troubled" star and one of the troubled stars in the league is our very own Jermaine O'Neal.

It's obviously easier to rebuild via the draft. We have good peices on this team, and if we get a good draft, we should have 2 first round picks this June, we should be able to have a much better out look next season.

[Miller4ever]

You guys know that all the other team boards are talking about tanking?

Also, cdash, I'm sorry I misunderstood you, but you keep sounding like you want to tank this season.

[mizzoupacers]

I'm not excited about making the playoffs, OR about next summer's draft. That kinda sums up this blah season right there.

I don't think it's going to make too much difference next summer whether we draft, say, ninth or, say, sixteenth. We'll have a chance I think to get a player at pretty much the same level of talent at #16 as at #9, so far as I can tell from looking at the guys likely to be available. Now, if we could get in the top three, that would be a different story, but our odds of that are poor even if we tank the rest of the season.

OTOH, no way in hell this team beats Boston or Detroit in the playoffs, and that's who we would be playing because we aren't getting any higher than the seventh seed. And I'm not sure that getting bludgeoned by a vastly superior team counts as valuable playoff experience for our young 'uns. So I don't see making the playoffs as serving any real purpose either.

Just play the games, let the chips fall, and figure out where to go from here.

[ajizzle]

Playoffs... Playoffs... PLAYOFFS!!!!!

[HookShotHibbert]

Seems to me either way, Pacers fans should be excited about the future (is it too early to start drinking the proverbial kool-aid?) If the P's make the playoffs, then they will have strung together a couple of win streaks which I am sure everyone around here would love. I think this would also help the team from an experience standpoint and boost their confidence heading into next season especailly since they will probably be doing it without Jermaine or Jamal(regardless of the assumed first round exit). On the other hand if we loose our way into a top ten pick, it will be disappointing to watch, but the reward could help in a quest to get deep into the playoffs within the next couple of years.