RealGM

This is going to be the eighth in our series of projections and discussions about all of our players this year. Essentially, we'll go through all 15 Pacers (I'm excluding Droopy) and talk about our expectations. Each poster will cut and paste form below and fill it out, adding their reasoning at the bottom. The reasoning is the most important, as it will help the conversation.

The first five guys will go up today, and they will be the fringe players. Then will come the rotational players, then we'll get to our key players. If you're looking to do a little research on the guys, I'd suggest BBR as the best statistical site.

So, here we start with:

Roy Hibbert

Games Played:
Games Lost To Injury:
DNP-CD's:
Minutes per Game:
Points per Game:
Rebounds per Game:
Assists per Game:
FG%:
3FG%:
FT%:
Other Key Stats (can be Steals, Blocks, TO's, A/TO ratio, etc.)

Reasoning/Synopsis: Describe why you think this player will provide these numbers. What will his role be? What's his best-case? What's his worst-case?

Lets get started.

Games Played: 50
Games Lost To Injury: 5
DNP-CD's: 27
Minutes per Game: 15
Points per Game: 5
Rebounds per Game: 5
Assists per Game: 0.5
FG%: 50
3FG%: 0
FT%: 70
Other Key Stats (can be Steals, Blocks, TO's, A/TO ratio, etc.) 7'2", 285

I have minimal expectations for Hibbert in his rookie season. There are two savvy veteran centers on the team, and (barring injuries) they will mostly play, and he will mostly watch. Which is just fine for a rookie center who is not a #1 draft pick.

Games Played: 74
Games Lost To Injury: 8
DNP-CD's: 0
Minutes per Game: 24
Points per Game: 11
Rebounds per Game: 6
Assists per Game: 1.5
FG%: 56%
FT%: 66%
Blocks per Game: 1.5

He played 4 years in college. There's no reason to believe he can't come in and immediately be a 20+ mpg contributor. I think his NCAA production will translate well into the NBA, and he'll put up similar numbers in similar minutes. I'd love it if he earned a starting nod at some point in the season.

Wow...11 and 6 would be pretty impressive for a rookie big man.

He's experienced and seems very mature and intelligent. Combine that with his size, skill level, and the fact our front court isn't so hot, and I think 11/6 is realistic. For comparison's sake, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, a guy Hibbert is compared to a lot, averaged 14/9 as a rookie.

I can't see him getting more than 10 minutes a game unless we trade someone to free the minutes. I'm hoping he plays well enough for us to shop Rasho but I think Roy will get his chance next year and this year he'll mostly watch. I'd like to be wrong.

Games Played: 75
Games Lost To Injury: 7
DNP-CD's:
Minutes per Game: 23
Points per Game: 10
Rebounds per Game: 6
Assists per Game:
FG%: 47
3FG%:
FT%:

I think the Pacers will start developing him from the get go. Rasho's expiring and probably won't be even in Pacers plans so they will start using Hibbert more and more as the season moves along. He's a smart player, and with his size, it will be a waste to make this guy a DNP-CD player. He's pretty polished IMO. The only question is, will he make a smooth transition to the NBA game? His body and style is a perfect fit for it IMO.

i actually agree that hibbert will get more playing time than most think. hes a good passing big man who went through 4 years of college and would seem to fit well in our system.

Games Played: 75
Games Lost To Injury: 5
DNP-CD's: 2
Minutes per Game: 20
Points per Game: 6.5
Rebounds per Game: 4.5
Assists per Game: 1.0
FG%: 49%
3FG%: 0%
FT%: 72%
Steals per Game: 0.5
Blocks per Game: 1.0

Reasoning: Like most rookies, Hibbert will probably spend his rookie season learning "Part 1: Introduction to the NBA". He will most probably try to see what needs adjustments and how to survive in this league, his strengths and weaknesses, etc. I'm not expecting Hibbert to hit the jackpot on his first season but I am expecting him to be ready whenever Obie puts him in.
One sure thing is, Hibbert can produce offensively in so many ways, so i won't be surprised if he'll have streaks of pretty good scoring games.

Hibbert has had four years of playing 30+ games a year. It'll be tough for a big man to jump up to 82 games plus pre-season and post season games. I would expect him to start slow...maybe 10-15 minutes per game to get some NBA experience. He'll be taken to school by NBA centers and power forwards during the first half of the season, but as we move into February I would expect his minutes, scoring, and overall production to increase to where it will be tough to keep him on the bench. Rasho will probably start, and Big Smooth (Perkins) and maybe Mel Daniels will be working with Hibbert in practice to improve his skills, stamina, and how to hold his ground under the basket. Expect a lot of fouls called against him in the early going.

Roy Hibbert

Games Played: 47
Games Lost To Injury: 13
DNP-CD's: 22
Minutes per Game: 15
Points per Game: 6.8
Rebounds per Game: 2.3
Assists per Game: .9
FG%: 49
3FG%: NA
FT%: 80
Other Key Stats (can be Steals, Blocks, TO's, A/TO ratio, etc.) NONE

Reasoning/Synopsis: He is going to learn the NBA game this year... Getting mostly junk minutes this season...

Games Played: 65
Games Lost To Injury: 7
DNP-CD's: 10
Minutes per Game: 15.5
Points per Game: 5.8
Rebounds per Game: 4.0
Assists per Game: 1.2
FG%: 50%
3FG%: 0%
FT%: 66%
Other Key Stats: Blks 1.0

Roy will have growing pains early, but as the calendar turns to 2009, I am predicting that he will have started to grab a significant chunk the minutes at Center. I expect a high percentage shooting on few opportunities, respectable rebounding and shot blocking, and better than expected assist numbers. I will be please if he's averaging over 20 minutes a night, post All-Star break.

Can I play?

Games played: 45
Games lost ot injury: 8
DNP - rest
MPG - 12.0
RPG - 3.5
PPG - 2.5
APG - .25
FG% .39
FT% .68
BLK .6
Fouls 2.9

Most importantly, I think he'll grab more boards than score points. I think all you folks that have more points than rebounds are way off.