OK...Here's how I understand the Pacers cap situation for next summer (sources are Shamsports and Larry Coon's CBA FAQ).
Guaranteed Salaries: $41,778Includes guaranteed contracts of Murphy, Dunleavy, Ford, Tinsley (or his replacement), Rush, and Hibbert, as well as Player Option for Travis Diener
Cap Holds: $39,255Rasho $12,600 (150% of this year's salary)
Foster $8,250 (150%)
Baston $3,409 (150%)
Granger $6,989 (300%)
Jack $6,008 (300%)
Graham $1,074 (130%)
McBob $925 (130%)
Cap holds count against the cap for FA signing purposes, but don't count against the tax or anything else. Therefore, the Pacers "Cap Number" entering next summer's FA period would be $81,033.
Here's Coon's explanation of why:
31. Why do free agents continue to count against a team's cap?
It closes another loophole. Teams otherwise would be able to sign other teams' free agents using their cap room, and then turn their attention to their own free agents using the Bird exceptions. This rule restricts their ability to do that. It doesn't close this loophole completely -- for example, in 2005 Michael Redd's free agent amount was $6 million, even though the Bucks intended to re-sign him for the maximum salary. By waiting to sign Redd last, the Bucks were able to take advantage of the difference by signing Bobby Simmons. Had they signed Redd first, they would have had no cap room to sign Simmons.
However, they can (and we expect that they will) reduce that cap number by renouncing the rights to some of these players. (If they renounce the rights to the players, they could only re-sign them (a) if they had cap room or (b) to a minimum contract. They could "sign-and-trade" the player using the Bird rights, but they could not use the Bird rights any longer to just sign him.)
It seems obvious that they'd almost certainly renounce Rasho, Baston, Graham, and McBob, reducing their cap hold by $18,008. However, that still leaves $21,247 in cap holds related to Jeff Foster, Danny Granger, and Jarrett Jack.
Therefore, assuming that, they'd have a "cap number" of $63,025 with 7 players under contract, and retaining the rights to the three I mentioned. The cap (at 5% growth) would probably be somewhere around $61-62 mm. (These numbers, BTW, completely ignore the holds for our 1st rounder, which would probably be about $2mm, and our MLE, which would be about $6mm).
So, how do they maximize their capspace for next summer, and what would that figure be?
By my calculations, the lowest "Cap Number" the Pacers could have would be about $50,000, leaving them $11 to $12mm below the cap.
However, to do that, they'd have to renounce the rights to everyone except Danny. If they were to renounce everyone except Danny and JJ, they'd be at around $56mm, but then the MLE cap hold would kick in and probably put their "cap number" over the cap.
They could re-sign JJ sooner (extension this summer or new contract early next summer) and probably save $1-2mm, which would likely negate the MLE caphold and leave them at $7-8mm under the cap. Let's say they did that...after signing Danny and a $7mm FA, they'd probably look like this:
Guaranteed: $41,778 (7 Players)
Danny: $ 9,000 (Conservatively 6/68, 1 player)
FA: $ 7,000 (1 player)
JJ: $ 4,500 (Conservatively, 1 player)
1st Rounder: $ 1,600 (1 player)
Total $63,878 on 11 players, roughly $11mm left under the tax to sign the last four. I guess it's do-able, but who are we going to get for $7-$8mm? If we let everybody go, who's the $11mm prize that's gonna sign with the Pacers? What if somebody offers Danny a higher contract?
It seems like an awful big crap shoot to me.
I have the suspicion that the Pacers are actually just being "cautious". I kinda think they wanna see one more year before they pony up for Danny. The idea of "maximizing cap space" is kind of convoluted, and not as productive as some might believe. Honestly, unless we want to completely gut our team next summer (which we might), we aren't going to have any real cap space.
I guess that's an OK strategy, but I'm not overly comfortable with it.
Bottom line is...we don't really have cap space next summer. Scoot's right...if we sign a FA, then it will likely be using the MLE.