Larry Bird needs to stick to his guns....

DWCP2 · Post #1 » by **DWCP2** » Tue May 12, 2009 11:41 pm

Picks done in the Larry Bird era (coach and exec)

1997: Austin Croshere
1998: Al Harrington
1999: Jon Bender and Jeff Foster (both via trades)
2000: Primoz Brezec
2004: David Harrison
2005: Danny Granger
2006: Shawne Williams
2008: Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert

What's the point? Go back through all the picks and note where the hits (Croshere, Foster, Granger, Rush, and Hibbert), and the misses (Harrington, Bender, Brezec, Harrison, and Williams), and see if you can spot a trend of where drafting went well and where it didn't go well.

Spot the trend? I can sum it up as simple as two words: Basketball IQ.

Larry Bird needs to stick to that gun if he wants to be build a successful team; it has worked well for him 10 years ago as it did in recent years.

With that said, I dug through draft profiles and mock draft to pull up names of guys in this coming draft who have spectacular basketball IQ, and I got good news and bad news.

Good news is that the PG position is loaded with it with the likes of Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday and even some late round picks like Darren Collision and Nick Calathes.

Bad news is twofold. First, only two PF's match the high IQ criteria that Bird has done well with, Tyler Hansborough of N.C. and Chase Pendergraph of Arizona. Finally if Jrue Holiday doesn't shoot up the draft board, the Pacers could really have no business being at the #12 pick in this draft and could look to make some major moves down and secure talent at a value price.

Now as far as our second round pick, I wouldn't be surprised if the Pacers went to the international well again to get a guy to develop down the road. Here are names that jump off the page to me, esp. with basketball IQ.

MacVan: 19 year old PF/C is already big at 6'9" and 265 but just needs a little refinement in his game to make an NBA impact.

Henk Norel: Another Dutch basketball player, Rik Smits would be so proud, is 21 but is light. His
game is being compared to that of Jeff Foster. His biggest issue right now is size in that he’s 212 lbs soaking wet, but 15-20 lbs of muscle can be added in a year or two if he works at it.

There’s also a variety of SG/SF products here as well and the Pacers could add one along the way in this draft, but I won’t comment on any other then to list them.

Hardin (AZ State)
Henderson (Duke)
Budinger (Arizona)
Ellington and Green (North Carolina)
Smith (Tennessee)

As well as the following international prospects…
Claver
Casppi
Preldzic
Tepic

Any thoughts???

Wizop · Post #2 » by **Wizop** » Wed May 13, 2009 2:58 am

unless one of the old second round Euro picks gives it a go this year, I can't see us stashing another pick over there this year. we've just got too many open roster spots with Rasho and Quis figured to move on, Dunleavey figured to miss half the season, and even Graham and Diener question marks.

Post #3 » by **Gremz** » Wed May 13, 2009 4:00 am

Yeah, I'd prefer to see our 2nd being used on a Jeff Pendegraph type player. He's drawn some Udonis Haslem comparisons, and perhaps could develop into a decent role player.

I'm also hoping that DeRozan can slide down the draft board to #13. With the recent media reports than the Knicks are targeting Curry, the idea might not be so crazy.

Post #4 » by **PR07** » Wed May 13, 2009 5:17 am

How is Harrington a miss? Guy's been a pretty good player in the NBA and was a big part of that team that went to the ECF.

I also wouldn't consider Brezec a miss either. For pick #27, he was a decent backup center for 4-5 seasons which is not bad for that draft position. The draft is pretty much a toss-up once you get out of the lottery.

DannyGranger · Post #5 » by **DannyGranger** » Wed May 13, 2009 8:16 am

1997: Austin Croshere
1998: Al Harrington
1999: Jon Bender and Jeff Foster (both via trades)
2000: Primoz Brezec
2004: David Harrison
2005: Danny Granger
2006: Shawne Williams
2008: Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert

Have you looked at when those guys were picked? Most of our picks were in the 20s expect Granger, Hibbert, Rush and Williams. Ok I agree with Williams, but everyone else was a solid pick at their draft number

freeman · Post #6 » by **freeman** » Wed May 13, 2009 10:10 am

If you can remember, Bender never reached his full potnetial because of a serious knee injury. I really never consider him as a bad pick.
He could've been someone like Josh Smith if the injuries never happen.

Pendergraph could be long gone before our turn in the 2nd round. If we could trade our future picks and the right to Stanko then maybe, just maybe, we could have a chance on him.

Post #7 » by **count55** » Wed May 13, 2009 10:39 am

If you can remember, Jonathan Bender didn't actually know how to play basketball.

He could've been someone like Stromile Swift if the injuries never happened.

Post #8 » by **count55** » Wed May 13, 2009 10:42 am

PacersRule07 wrote:How is Harrington a miss? Guy's been a pretty good player in the NBA and was a big part of that team that went to the ECF.

I also wouldn't consider Brezec a miss either. For pick #27, he was a decent backup center for 4-5 seasons which is not bad for that draft position. The draft is pretty much a toss-up once you get out of the lottery.

You can't even consider Harrison a miss...he was the last pick of the first round...

freeman · Post #9 » by **freeman** » Wed May 13, 2009 11:22 am

count55 wrote:If you can remember, Jonathan Bender didn't actually know how to play basketball.

He could've been someone like Stromile Swift if the injuries never happened.

I don't think so but i can't argue though. We never really saw Bender in full bloom.
Never even saw him play 82 games. Never saw him play more than 24 mins. a game.
I still love watching his clips though.

cdash · Post #10 » by **cdash** » Wed May 13, 2009 12:32 pm

He probably didn't know how to play basketball because he came straight out of high school to the NBA, where he was habitually injured. Had he been healthy, who knows. The dude had tons of talent though.

greenway84 · Post #11 » by **greenway84** » Wed May 13, 2009 1:42 pm

i would be ok moving down if i could get collison and hansbrough both. for the price of our first and secound.

laydo · Post #12 » by **laydo** » Wed May 13, 2009 2:10 pm

DWCP2 wrote:Picks done in the Larry Bird era (coach and exec)

1997: Austin Croshere
1998: Al Harrington
1999: Jon Bender and Jeff Foster (both via trades)
2000: Primoz Brezec
2004: David Harrison
2005: Danny Granger
2006: Shawne Williams
2008: Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert

What's the point? Go back through all the picks and note where the hits (Croshere, Foster, Granger, Rush, and Hibbert), and the misses (Harrington, Bender, Brezec, Harrison, and Williams), and see if you can spot a trend of where drafting went well and where it didn't go well.

Spot the trend? I can sum it up as simple as two words: Basketball IQ.

Except basketball IQ, the years that played in college also could be a hint. Check this out:

1997: Austin Croshere, PROVIDENCE, Senior
1998: Al Harrington, HS
1999: Jon Bender, HS ; Jeff Foster, SWTEXAS, Senior
2000: Primoz Brezec, International
2001: Jamaal Tinsley, Iowa State, Sophomore ; Jamison Brewer, Auburn Sophomore
2002: Fred Jones, University of Oregon, Senior
2003: James Jones, University of Miami, Senior
2004: David Harrison, University of Colorado, Senior
2005: Danny Granger, University of New Mexico, Senior
2006: Shawne Williams, University of Memphis, Freshman
2008: Brandon Rush, Kansas, Junior ; Roy Hibbert, Georgetown, Senior

We can see that the Pacers like players finished the college, and most senior picks went steadily in the league. The only one who's not was David Harrison. But Harrison got pretty good athlete and that's what I worry about, because coach JOB said they'll pick the most athletic guy they can get.

Therefore, for the #13, it will be nice if we could draft Jrue Holiday for the long run. But if not, and the point guards that left are Eric Maynor and Jeff Teague, I'm afraid that Bird will pick Teague over Maynor.

And for the #52, I think there will still plenty of good senior players who would be a steal like James Jones or Michael Redd.

Here's the senior rankings by the draftexpress.com:http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/NCAA-Seniors/

cdash · Post #13 » by **cdash** » Wed May 13, 2009 3:28 pm

greenway84 wrote:i would be ok moving down if i could get collison and hansbrough both. for the price of our first and secound.

Yuck. I don't want anything to do with either of those guys.

DWCP2 · Post #14 » by **DWCP2** » Wed May 13, 2009 3:33 pm

Harrington couldn't get out of Larry Bird's dog house during his first stint with the team, aka miss.

Bender never evolved into the Kevin Garnett they thought they were getting, aka miss.

Brezec never averaged more then 3 minutes per game in a Pacer uniform behind, Miller/Pollard, O'Neal, and Foster, aka miss.

Harrington only turned out great with Zeke was the head coach here.

and note that I didn't include the likes of Tinsley, Fred and James Jones.

jrandis04 · Post #15 » by **jrandis04** » Wed May 13, 2009 4:48 pm

dude your smoking something to think al was a miss. look at his numbers bro, he has talent.

Post #16 » by **PR07** » Wed May 13, 2009 5:46 pm

The year we went to the ECF, Harrington finished 2nd in 6th man of the year behind A. Jamison under Carlisle, and was really part of the three headed monster that year along with Jermaine and Ron with Reggie occasionally providing a big night. There's no way he was a missed pick. For the 25th pick, he was a darn good pick. This year he put up 20.7 ppg and 6.3 rpg. The fact that he didn't do it in a Pacers' uniform has nothing to do with the fact that it wasn't a great selection.

cdash · Post #17 » by **cdash** » Wed May 13, 2009 11:38 pm

Yeah, sorry man, but you don't know **** about the NBA if you think Harrington at 25 was a "miss".

DWCP2 · Post #18 » by **DWCP2** » Thu May 14, 2009 3:14 am

I didn't miss anything at all.

During Larry Bird's coaching tenure he was constantly in the dog house and never played much. Then zeke started coaching him and he took off and flourished.

The year Carlisle came back, yeah that was a pretty good point to make, but you're leaving out some keynote information about that season. If I recall right that was also the year of too many small forwards, six trying to play as I recall, Harrington constantly demanding to be traded, and being a good solider boy to go out and have a great season knowing they were going to honor his request to be traded to Atlanta the following summer, where Croshere was traded for Daniels and I believe Johnson was traded for Armstrong and scraps too.

Harrington and Carlisle never meshed well, they gave it a go together for 1.5 seasons. He like Artest had very choice words at the time each was traded to Sacramento and Golden State respectively towards Carlisle.

cdash · Post #19 » by **cdash** » Thu May 14, 2009 3:19 am

Okay, regardless of his attitude, for the 25th pick in the draft, he turned out pretty damn good.

Boneman2 · Post #20 » by **Boneman2** » Thu May 14, 2009 1:28 pm

I pretty sure Bird preferred Wally over Bender. Since Bird was on his way out DW took JB. Then he declined Carlisle and hired Zeke.