RealGM

What do you guys think (By the way, I typed this out in a random thread and it didn't fit at all. I was going to throw it in OT. I thought I would see if any1 else has any interest in talking about this. If not it can be moved or whatever):

When I was in Vegas I couldn't help but bet on the Pacers to win it all. Their odds were 75:1. I think it should be more like 100:1 or 125:1, but I couldn't resist, so I threw $10 on it. I also bet on the Colts (18:1!! I thought that was crazy! They should be more like 8:1 or 10:1, I think! So I threw more than $10 on them, it was about $40 or $50), the Cardinals (16:1, which is also very good. They are in 1st place now, at the time they were in 3rd but just a game or 2 out. Right now I think their odds are about 2 times better. I also bet a pretty good amount on that one--it was a good deal), the STL Blues (they are my favorite Hockey team. I just put $10 on them and they were 50:1. They are young and I think they have better odds than 50:1, but I don't see them winning. I just had to bet on them too, though), and then the Vikings to win the Super Bowl and/or to make it to the Super Bowl (I put a pretty decent amount on them. To win it all I think they were nearly 25:1 and for the NFC they were around 11:1. This is pre-Favre, and I think if they have Favre they should be the favorites to win the NFC. He won't choke in the playoffs b/c he won't be freezing his old ass off in the playoffs in the dome, as long as they can get home-field, which they of course will. Worst case Favre doesn't go to the Vikings and I still have Adrian Peterson to help me out).

Also, have any of you made bets in Vegas? If the Pacers make it to the finals and all of a sudden their odds are 2:1, can I sell the ticket back to the casino for a good price? Technically I should win $750, but if they were 2:1 in the finals it should be $375. Would they buy it back for like $350 or so.

Also one more random thing... Do you guys know where that Pacer memorabilia thread is? I looked for a minute but couldn't find it. I actually got some basketball cards and wanted to post them to see if there is any interested or what your thoughts are.

Thanks all, let me know how you think my bets are!!

Ooh, I forgot I made a bet for my friend (FJ20) for the Spurs to win. They were 15:1, I believe. He put $10 on that, I think. This was after they got RJ, but before all the big moves. It was like a day or 2 after the draft, June 27th I believe.

Well I just looked at some online bets. Those are usually a little better, they don't have all the expenses and everything. BUT in Vegas I got 2 free drinks for every bet I made! I bet at The Venetian, I should probably look it up on their site to see if they have it, but I am going to the site I always go to when I am looking up odds.

So the STL Cardinals have improved. To win the National League they are 5:1 (didn't bet on that). To win it all they are 14:1 (most have better than that, even. They should go up as the trade deadline passes and everything. Plus I think they will pick up a good player. They should, I think they made some pretty decent money having the ASG in STL). Losing the stupid All-Star game didn't help that! That is such a stupid rule! It didn't matter in 2006, though

The Colts are up to 12:1. So it looks like I got a good deal on that one, I still think they should be about 10:1. The Patriots are 4:1. That is dumb, Brady has played half a game since he lost the Super Bowl, why all the confidence? I do realize we have had a lot of coaching changes, but we still have Peyton Manning!


The Vikings are up to 12:1. It looks like they think Favre may come back. The odds are supposd to be WORSE in the casino, all mine are looking very good right now. I am already almost 2 times better than what it was 3 weeks ago. They would drop a little bit if Favre doesn't come back, but I don't think they would drop to below 22:1 since they still have Peterson. The site I look at doesn't have odds for the NFC or AFC Champs. The AFC has a better chance of winning it all I know. So since they are 12:1, I think them winning the NFC would be around 5:1 or 4:1. That is about 2 times better than what I got, so it seems about right.

Now to the Pacers.... They are 100:1. They have been 100:1, but I got the bad end since I was in Vegas. I only put $10 on it, though, and I got 2 free drinks worth $5 apiece. So really I got a free bet and could win $750, right?!

I couldn't bet on any college football or basketball. It is just crazy and a lot can change. So many teams and everything.

I was also thinking about how horrible it would be if someone put $500 on Tom Watson to win it all. He was 1000:1. $500,000.... Ouch.

One more thing... The Florida Gators are 2:1 in college football. That's nuts! It's hard enough to just get through the SEC. And then Oklahoma is 6:1 and Texas 7:1. I don't see them losing outside of playing each other, so I guess putting money on both of them isn't an AWFUL idea, but they would still have to win the national championship game and there are always random close games that could go any way... It's college football! I just don't like the risk/reward there. USC is 7:1. Not bad, but they did lose their QB. They just need to quit losing random games they should win. Notre Dame is 25:1, do it Irish!!! Riiiiight. Ohio State 11:1, though, I don't hate that bet. Just too many teams and upsets, I don't like those bets.

In college hoops UK is 6:1 (I don't like it... Too many young guys with low IQs) and Kansas 4.5:1... Not too big on that either. Texas, MSU, UNC (15:1... I know they always have good players, but c'mon, they just lost GREAT college players, and hopefully great future NBA players), Duke, Louisville, Georgetown, Syracuse, Villanova, and Texas are all around 12:1 to 15:1. The Boilers are 20:1! I think they will actually be very good. I don't think they are 20:1 good, March Madness is just too mad. Thinking back I probably should've bet on Purdue basketball and Notre Dame football (even though they always have awful odds b/c they have so many team that like them (and hate them) all over the country, so more teams will put their money on them). IU is as 200:1! cdash, put $5,000 on that! MILLIONAIRE!! Notre Dame 40:1, ehhh, don't like it. And then the Butler Bulldogs are 75:1. I don't think a mid-major can win it, but that is one of those bets I would like to sell when Butler is in the Sweet 16 and I could sell it when their odds are 25:1.

EDIT: Ooh and the Blues are already up to 35:1, better than my 50:1! And odds are better online, so at the casino, as I said earlier, they'd probably be 30:1 or something. All my bets are looking very good so far!

And FJ20s bet is at 8:1. I thought the Artest signing would hurt them a little bit. The casino couldn't have missed something like the RJ signing... I just don't see how they improve, though. Not bad, though!

P.S. Lakers are 2:1, and Cavs 2.5:1! If the Cavs got Artest they may have been 1.5:1. The Celtics are 5:1, even with KG coming back and the addition of Sheed. When we get Rondo those should hurt, though Also, the Magic are 7:1.

Sorry, I enjoy reading about all of these odds. Good times. Mods do what you have to do, but give me a day or 2, if possible, to see if any1 else is as interested in this stuff as me (grang33r, where are you?! haha).

I hate to say it, but you are throwing your money away on the Pacers--there is pretty much no chance in hell of them winning an NBA championship next spring. No chance in hell <<<<<< 75:1.

Cardinals at 16:1 sounds like a decent bet...they are a flawed team this year, but so is every other team in the NL Central. St. Louis has a realistic shot at winning the Central. And any team that makes it into baseball's postseason has a chance, because baseball's postseason is far more of a crapshoot than any other major sport's--two good starting pitchers who get hot at the right time are enough to win out. The Cardinals have two good candidates in Carpenter and Wainwright...

Yeah, there's really no chance on the Pacers. You have a pretty good shot with the Colts I think, and an outside chance with the Cards.

Yeah, well I figured I could bet on the Pacers and get 2 free drink tickets, and the bet was only $10. Drinks are over $5 apiece, so I actually got more than my moneys worth just with the drinks. I am throwing my money away, and 75:1 isn't very good, but I had to put money on all my teams in Vegas. Plus at the time I was up quite a bit and couldn't lose any bets, so I figured I'd be good luck for the Pacers.

I think the Cards have a better chance than the Colts, by quite a bit. They have Wainwright and Carp, like mizzoupacers said, which is huge for the Pacers. There has also been a lot of talk about the Cardinals adding a player. They don't have a ton of money to spend, but they do have some, and I think the owners should have made some money from the ASG. If they could land a guy like Holliday that would be HUGE. That would be 3 All-State caliber pitchers. Plus Pinero has been great, he just hasn't gotten run support. And Troy Glaus will be back soon. A big bat can never hurt. I actually really like that bet.

The Colts bet is good, too. The Cardinals have a better shot than the Colts, but the Colts can definitely do it. I think the Texans will be better this year, so those aren't 2 wins. The Jags could be good. I don't think the Titans will be as good as they were last year, but they will still be over .500. The AFC is tough, though, and if the Titans do well again and win the division I just don't see the Colts going on the road and winning 3 games. It was crap how we had such a better record than the Chargers but still had to go to their place.

sell a ticket back? wouldn't you just hedge? say the Colts were in the SuperBowl and you had an 18 to one dollar ticket on them to win. just bet a buck or two on the other team and you're locked in to win either way.

Wizop wrote:sell a ticket back? wouldn't you just hedge? say the Colts were in the SuperBowl and you had an 18 to one dollar ticket on them to win. just bet a buck or two on the other team and you're locked in to win either way.

Yeah, I don't know what kind of odds they give you if you sell it back for the odds or how that even works at all, really. I doubt I would even be in Vegas for the Super Bowl, though, so it wouldn't work out. It'd be nice if it was the Vikings and I am guaranteed to win! Or else I'd bet like 400 since it'd be able 2:1 and then I would get $400 either way. Actually it'd probably be like 2.5:1 or 3:1 cause I think if the Colts make it they would definitely be better than any NFC team. I should get a bunch of drink tickets for a $400 bet, especially if I get on their good side like last time

Oooh, and I got an e-mail yesterday from MGM Mirage. They have like 8-10 casinos like MGM Grand, New York New York, The Bellagio, and others. I get 3 free nights with a bunch of free food, shows, the spa (kinda random, but I'd take a free massage!), and free gambling money! If I stay at one place they even pay for my plane ticket up to $350! It's awesome. Has any1 ever been comped before like this? I want my friends to come with me and I was wondering if it's possible for my to get a free place at MGM Grand and New York New York at the same time. I would get double the amount of free food, gambling money, etc, but I don't know if they would realize I was doing that and get really pissed at me. The only problem is I have to go before October 1st.

But the e-mail said I can go as many times as I want. I should just move to Vegas for a month and hop hotel rooms for free, eating incredible meals everyday and then just chill by the pool and use my free gaming money. I wouldn't even have to gamble. That'd be awesome, except for the heat. But living very expensively for a month or 2 could be kinda awesome. I am sure me and my entrepreneurial ways could find a way to make some money out there, too!

chatard5 wrote:

Wizop wrote:sell a ticket back? wouldn't you just hedge? say the Colts were in the SuperBowl and you had an 18 to one dollar ticket on them to win. just bet a buck or two on the other team and you're locked in to win either way.

Yeah, I don't know what kind of odds they give you if you sell it back for the odds or how that even works at all, really. I doubt I would even be in Vegas for the Super Bowl, though, so it wouldn't work out. It'd be nice if it was the Vikings and I am guaranteed to win! Or else I'd bet like 400 since it'd be able 2:1 and then I would get $400 either way. Actually it'd probably be like 2.5:1 or 3:1 cause I think if the Colts make it they would definitely be better than any NFC team. I should get a bunch of drink tickets for a $400 bet, especially if I get on their good side like last time

Oooh, and I got an e-mail yesterday from MGM Mirage. They have like 8-10 casinos like MGM Grand, New York New York, The Bellagio, and others. I get 3 free nights with a bunch of free food, shows, the spa (kinda random, but I'd take a free massage!), and free gambling money! If I stay at one place they even pay for my plane ticket up to $350! It's awesome. Has any1 ever been comped before like this? I want my friends to come with me and I was wondering if it's possible for my to get a free place at MGM Grand and New York New York at the same time. I would get double the amount of free food, gambling money, etc, but I don't know if they would realize I was doing that and get really pissed at me. The only problem is I have to go before October 1st.

But the e-mail said I can go as many times as I want. I should just move to Vegas for a month and hop hotel rooms for free, eating incredible meals everyday and then just chill by the pool and use my free gaming money. I wouldn't even have to gamble. That'd be awesome, except for the heat. But living very expensively for a month or 2 could be kinda awesome. I am sure me and my entrepreneurial ways could find a way to make some money out there, too!

If you're relatively sure you can come out on top, then do it. That would be awesome.

Here's the Pacers memorabilia thread you wanted

viewtopic.php?f=17&t=911219&p=19763522#p19762731

Awesome, thanks Dunthreevy. I just got some Pacers cards I figured I would post in there--some are pretty cool.

So if there are any Vegas people out there, which offer should I take?

http://www.mgmmirage.com/offers/2009/07 ... ng_t8.html

It looks like Mandalay Bay will pay for my flight, but not any of the room. I am hoping to book more than 1 place at a time. I also know The Venetian and The Stratosphere will give me free rooms, and they are not related. So if I can only use one of the MGM Mirage ones at a time I can always add The Venetian or Stratosphere. Or else maybe I could call the other 2 and show them the offers I have and see if they can beat it. If any1 has ever done this before and has any info I would really appreciate it! If not I am sure I can find a family member or someone who knows a little bit about it.

Also, keep your eyes open for that memorabilia thread. I will be posting some cards of Hibbert, Rush, and hopefully Granger. Some I have multiples of, too. I don't know if it is legal to sell them on here, but if people are interested I may sell a couple of the ones I have more than 1 of, just let me know.