Pacers DEAD LAST in expectations

Orlock78 · Post #1 » by **Orlock78** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 5:24 pm

http://www.realgm.com/src_feature_piece ... r_windows/

According to Chris Reina, The Pacers are DEAD LAST in the chance to win a championship in the next 5 years.

LAST.

While I agree that our chances are not good, I can think of a number of teams whose chances are far slimmer. I sincerely don't agree that we are last. Perhaps I am being a tad homerish, but I really don't think our expectations are THAT bleak.

To be specific, I think the 5 teams he has directly ahead of us are all easily worse, and have lower expectaions.

Kuq_e_Zi91 · Post #2 » by **Kuq_e_Zi91** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 5:51 pm

It really doesn't matter. Only 4 or 5 teams have a real shot at the title each year anyways.

Plus, on paper a lot of teams look more talented than ours. But there's something that just looking at depth charts can't show you and that's heart. Fortunately for us this group has plenty of it and I know no matter where any writer decides to place us, this team will leave everything on the floor every single game. Championship or no championship, that's all I can ask for.

MillerTime101 · Post #3 » by **MillerTime101** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 6:08 pm

I see what he is saying but I dont get how he doesnt mention the amount of cap space we will have in 2011, to say we wont be active in the FA market anytime soon when we have roughly 35 million in cap space in two years doesnt make alot of sense.

I cant think of two many teams that are where we are now with a legit superstar on the rise, a very capable young core and a ton of cap space in two seasons. I know we are bias but, if you had to take over a franchise to win a championship in 5 years who here would honestly take the Knicks over the Pacers? No one, they have no superstar, no draft picks this year and their supporting cast is nothing to write home about. I love how he mentions Danillio Gallanari having a big impact on Lebron and their chances at a championship, if thats they case they should be last.

Granger - Rush - Hibbert - Hansbrough - Jones - 2009 Draft pick + 35 million in cap space = a better chance then most.

Post #4 » by **Gremz** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 12:25 pm

We don't have our title run pieces in place, so it doesn't really matter where we are on the list.

freeman · Post #5 » by **freeman** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 5:48 am

Five years from now and we'll be ripping the Celtics with our crew. I really don't care about the rankings at all because they're all biased or semi-biased at best. Everyone can give their rankings and in my thoughts, after "the plan" has been completed, the Pacers could have the best young starting lineup that really could do well. If somehow we could snatch John Wall in next year's draft (or a high-priced pg to complete the young core), the Pacers could be a serious threat against the older teams.
Five years from now and you can bet the Pacers would be better than the Spurs and the Celtics.

Post #6 » by **mizzoupacers** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 2:04 pm

It's silly to try to project five years ahead--five years is an eternity in the NBA.

The Pacers have taken big strides to set their house in order. In another two years the payroll situation should clear up. The team we have five years from now will be dramatically different from the one we have now--hopefully in a good way.

Post #7 » by **count55** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 2:22 pm

mizzoupacers wrote:It's silly to try to project five years ahead--five years is an eternity in the NBA.

The Pacers have taken big strides to set their house in order. In another two years the payroll situation should clear up. The team we have five years from now will be dramatically different from the one we have now--hopefully in a good way.

At this point in 2004 (five years ago), we would have been pretty high on the list.

Post #8 » by **Gremz** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 2:41 pm

Good point. That's probably a fair reflection of how pointless a 5 season projection can be.

greenway84 · Post #9 » by **greenway84** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 3:43 pm

How about the Celtics. They went from one of the worst teams in the league. To Champs in one off season. Who needs 5 years anymore?

Wizop · Post #10 » by **Wizop** » Tue Sep 15, 2009 2:26 am

the article is really poorly done. overlook the fact that we are last and look at the rest of the stuff. there are 21 teams between us and the Knicks? there are plenty of other equally unreasonable picks.

so I decided to go to www.vegasinsider.com to see what the odds are on this year and we're just a little below the middle at 40 to 1. people who are getting paid not to write articles but to make lines see lots of teams as being worse than we are this year. given that we're a young team is it rational to think that every one of those dozen teams ranked below us will pass us over the next five years while we pass no one ranked above us?

IrishLuck31 · Post #11 » by **IrishLuck31** » Tue Sep 15, 2009 3:09 am

yea, I mean i agree that we should not be last, but let's be real - right now we have one player that could definitely play a big role on a Championship team. maybe Rush, Hibbert, and Hanborough will develop into nice players, but there is certainly nothing here that suggests legitimate contender anytime soon. That might change, and I certainly hope so...

Unfortunately, he does have a point about no big FA's wanting to come to Indy. We may have plenty of cap space in two years, but right now I dont see a situation where we could convince a big name to come here.

That being said, I cant wait to be proved wrong, ha... also, its pretty easy to make the same arguement about like the last 15 teams on this list.

Post #12 » by **Miller4ever** » Tue Sep 15, 2009 3:13 am

On paper, I think the assessment is fine. We should be in the bottom 5 according to the reputation of the players on our team and our lack of FA pull, but we all know that this Pacer team can surprise people, but even then surprising people means 6th-7th seed next year.

Dunthreevy · Post #13 » by **Dunthreevy** » Tue Sep 15, 2009 11:10 am

Isn't this sort of redundant to the "negative predictions" topic? All of these "experts" have no idea what they're talking about outside of the top 5 teams in each conference, from year to year. So I definitely don't put any weight behind their predictions over the next 5 years.

Post #14 » by **Charcoal Filtered** » Wed Sep 16, 2009 1:31 am

I think he made a great point in that we are not built to win a championship but IMO to make the playoffs. Teams that are consistently in the low lottery have a small chance of getting a true franchise player. We need a superstar to pair with Danny.

The teams that have worse odds for a championship now could potentially get odds below 20/1 in the future. Those are still not great odds and it is splitting hairs for who has a worse chance. However, I see us at 40/1 or around that consistently because of the mentality of building this team.

freeman · Post #15 » by **freeman** » Wed Sep 16, 2009 7:22 am

The offseason of 2011 and the emergence of the young core we have in Granger and the company will determine it all.
Either way, i still think these 5-year predictions are useless. I wouldn't count on it even if it's a three-year prediction.

chatard5 · Post #16 » by **chatard5** » Thu Oct 1, 2009 7:41 am

I don't disagree with him, I just think the IDEA of the article is kind of dumb. Nobody knows what it'll be like in 5 years. I think we will be around an 8-seed this year, and it does make sense to put the 7-9 seeds of this year towards the bottom (unless you think it's the Heat or something with Wade + Beasley).

It looks like the Pacers odds this year are 75-1 (although I have been seeing 100-1 most places).

But other things in the article I think are off... The Magic are #2. Lebron existing puts the Cavs ahead of the Magic there for me--even if it's only for a year. I mean the Celtics and Spurs are okay, but their window is closing pretty quickly. The Bulls should be higher than 10. The Knicks ahead of the Bulls, whaaaat? Go ahead and sign "somebody", if that person isn't Lebron then the Bulls have a better chance of winning. Also I think the Grizzlies are higher than 28 with all that young talent.

Pretty much that was a waste of time.

chatard5 · Post #17 » by **chatard5** » Thu Oct 1, 2009 7:48 am

Haaa. So I was looking at the odds of some stuff on that vegasinsider site. The Colts opened at 8/1 and are now 11/1. I didn't know that we'd drop after starting 3-0. I do realize this is from probably like February, but that just seems kind of funny to me. C'mon Colts vs. Vikings Super Bowl!!! I will cash in big!

Haaaaaaa! The odds for the Cubs to win the NL Pennant is 10,000/1. They can't even make the playoffs--sites are just hoping Cubs fans are dumb enough to still bet on the Cubs. I love it.

DougInOz · Post #18 » by **DougInOz** » Thu Oct 1, 2009 11:48 am

chatard5 wrote:
Haaaaaaa! The odds for the Cubs to win the NL Pennant is 10,000/1. They can't even make the playoffs--sites are just hoping Cubs fans are dumb enough to still bet on the Cubs. I love it.

If anyone ever offers you 10,000-to-1 odds you take it.
If John Mellencamp wins an oscar I'm gonna be a very rich man.

chatard5 · Post #19 » by **chatard5** » Fri Oct 2, 2009 12:27 am

Hahaha, I wanted to post that but I couldn't think of the exact quote! Kevin is awesome.

farzi · Post #20 » by **farzi** » Sat Oct 3, 2009 3:03 am

I wouldn't feel too bad. 5 years ago Lakers, Celtics, Magic weren't contenders. Portland had a horrible team. Seattle/OKC had Allen / Carter.

5 years is an eternity