Where will Pacers finish if.......?

[8305]

There are a group of guys who are what they are. Granger, Murphy, Foster, Ford, Watson, D. Jones. By this I mean if they are healthy, what you will get from them is reasonably predictable. The guys who really hold the season in their hands are Dunleavy (will he be there for most of the season?), Rush and Hibbert (will they be up to making legitiment contributions).

So assume the first group (Granger, Murphy, etc) are relatively healthy this year. Further assume Dunleavy hits the revised return date (sometime between 11/15 and 11/30) and returns fairly quickly to his 2007/08 form. Rush picks from where he was playing during the last 20 games of last season and Hibbert is able to stay on the floor for 20 to 24 minutes a night and during that time brings a reasonably competent post presence.

Pacers would have pretty exceptional depth and skill sets that complement one another pretty well. If you get that scenario I think we make the playoffs and maybe even push Atlanta and Chicago for seeds 5 or 6.

[glasket]

You are forgetting Tyler Hansborough. He should also be a contributor.

[count55]

Without Dunleavy (a healthy, productive Dunleavy), they are a low- to mid-30 win team. If Dunleavy were to somehow to return to his 2008 form, they might be able get into the low- to mid-40's.

[Miller4ever]

Dunleavy looked good the few games he played last season. He's a smart player with a skillset that can be utilized easily within any system, at least on offense. He will make things so much easier for our second unit, since it will either be him or Rush bringing firepower off the bench. I think that we have focused on defensive improvement this offseason, but with Dunleavy's return and Rush's improvement (along with Hibbert and Hansbrough contributing) our offense won't have lost a lot. In fact, we may not get the same tempo or numbers, but I believe this year's offense may be more dangerous.

[jowglenn]

You have hit the nail on the head in defining the major factors for this year's success. I wrote the same 3 guys in another thread a month ago. Dunleavy, Rush, Hibbert. Everyone else is a known quantity, more or less.

If all 3 of these guys live up to 80% of their potential (Rush cements as starter, good D, scores reasonably well, like 14 a game) (Dunleavy comes back, gradually works way into rotation, becomes great 6th man and is main offensive firepower off bench) (Hibbert manages to control fouls, improve rebounding a little bit, play 25 min a game)


Then we will be in the playoffs.

If any of them falls totally flat, then it's a question mark. If all 3 fail, we have no chance.

I also think we made some really good moves w/ our bench. Watson is about as good a backup PG as you can ask for. Head has been flying under the radar since being injured, and will give us scoring whenever we need it. Either McBob or Solo Jones (or both!) is going to surprise everybody and earn 15-20 min a game.

[8305]

You are forgetting Tyler Hansborough. He should also be a contributor.

Not really forgetting him. Just don't see his potential contribution being as essential as Dunleavy, Rush and HIbbert. I could also see where he could have a tough time finding minutes if the scenario laid out above comes to fruition.

I'm also coming to like the signings of Solo Jones and Luther Head. You can see that Jones will push Hibbert to earn his minutes. Having Head around does the same with Rush. Its good for both Hibbet and Rush to know that if they don't play well the team has another options waiting in the wings.

[Wizop]

okay, I've seen one preseason game and I missed most of the first quarter of that as I got stuck at the office. earlier results:

neither Hibbert nor Rush looked much different than early last year. D Jones showed much more offense than I expected. should start. S Jones and McBob could both be ahead of Hibbert at this stage. no one stepped up when Granger was off the floor.

I'd say if you are pinning your improvement hopes on Rush and Hibbert, you're probably going to be disappointed. Hibbert is going to take time. anyone besides me old enough to remember Rik at a comparable age? he's way ahead of that pace but he needs to learn the lesson that Harrison never did and that's how to stay on the floor. I'm a little worried that Rush thinks he's been annointed as a starter because he sure didn't play well enough to be ahead of Dahntay the first night out.

[Miller4ever]

^^I wholeheartedly disagree with that last statement. He shot 50% from the field, 2-4 on 3's, and blocked two shots, and did some good things on both ends of the floor. TJ Ford did way worse, but I think it's safe to say he's starting.

[jowglenn]

I'm a little worried that Rush thinks he's been annointed as a starter because he sure didn't play well enough to be ahead of Dahntay the first night out.

I wholeheartedly disagree with that last statement. He shot 50% from the field, 2-4 on 3's, and blocked two shots, and did some good things on both ends of the floor. TJ Ford did way worse, but I think it's safe to say he's starting.

Yeah, I think it's pretty clear that he's starting. Unless he has some bizarre complete breakdown, he's starting. It's nice to have Jones and Head there to make him work for it, but you don't want it to be a situation where he's looking over his shoulder every second. That could seriously undermine his confidence. If he's giving an effort and it's just not clicking, then they have to give him time and hope he turns it around.

[MillerTime101]

We are not the denver Nuggets, Brandon Rush is not JR Smith, Brandon Rush is not coming of the bench.

[Wizop]

you don't always start your best five. Rush in the long run will be a better offensive player than Dahntay but it might make more sense to have the better defender on the first unit and the better scorer on the second. this is particularly true with Murphy starting since he scores and rebounds but isn't much of a stopper.

in any event, game two went much better. maybe Rush and Hibbert and even Price were just having game one jitters. hope so.

[spudmonkey31]

If hibbert has the kind of line he had the other night its hard to see us missing the playoffs this year. 8blks wow. Keep it up big fella and please control your fouls!!!!!!!!!!!!!!