With almost $40 million in expiring contracts...what next?

[Scoot McGroot]

So, the Pacers made no moves at the trade deadline, setting them up with almost $42 million in expiring contracts for the summer of 2011 in Murphy, Dunleavy, Ford, Foster, Solo Jones, and McRoberts.


Do you think they hold onto the expirings themselves and go into the summer of 2011 with possibly enough cap space for 2 maximum salaried contracts, use the contracts in trades for guys that have fallen out of favor, or some combination of both?


Guys they could target could possibly include Andris Biedrins, Monta Ellis, Anderson Vareajo, Chris Kaman, Andrew Bogut, Al Jefferson, Devin Harris, Emeka Okafor, Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson, Marcin Gortat, Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala, Leandro Barbosa, Francisco Garcia, Beno Udrih, Andres Nocioni, Jose Calderon, and Hedo Turkoglu. All these guys are either not franchise players, or could possibly be moved in cost-cutting deals if they get replaced in the draft or free agency (or by the development of other players on their roster).


Unrestricted free agents include Jamal Crawford, Glen Davis, Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler, Tayshaun Prince, Shane Battier, Yao Ming, Zach Randolph, Mike Redd, Nick Collison, Nenad Krstic, Sam Dalembert, Jason Kapono, Joel Przybilla, Carl Landry, Richard Jefferson, Tony Parker, and Andrei Kirilenko.

Restricted free agents (that are extremely tough to steal, so let's just eliminate Kevin Durant from possibilities here) include guys like Marc Gasol, Rodney Stuckey, Greg Oden, Brandon Wright, Corey Brewer, MIke Conley, etc. Most of these guys are going to be tough to steal away from their current teams as they would have the right to match any contract offer we make to a restricted free agent, but there are slight possibilities that we could overpay for a guy that hasn't quite yet achieved the potential that may still be questionable out there. For example, we could ridiculously overpay for Greg Oden and Mike Conley, and there's a possibility that Portland and Memphis would each decline to match out of fear of health and production from each player. Guys like Horford and Durant, and most likely even Marc Gasol are almost guarantees to have offers matched by their current teams, so they're unlikely.


So, whaddya say? All from the bad contract type group, or all from the free agent group? A little of both? What would you do, but also what do you think the Pacers will do?

[basketballwacko2]

Next move TANK!

[Miller4ever]

A lot depends on who we draft. If we have another future franchise player on our hands to put next to Granger, we can go into player acquisition mode to put us in contention. I see a happy medium with trades happening and enough capspace to lure a big-name free agent with some space left over for whatever else we need. I'm thinking no bad contracts, just FA's and if we do take bad contracts bad, they should come with picks.

[jowglenn]

I feel good about our prospects. Get a solid pick, BPA in this draft (pray for Wall or Turner) and then see if we can get any other key pieces using our expirings.

Wherever we stand on 2011, we should have lots of space, so try to sign one big FA (Tony Parker obviously would be the dream, but he ain't coming here).

I'd love it if we got Evan Turner in the draft, then signed Conley away from Memphis

[mizzoupacers]

The Pacers need to land a franchise player, pure and simple. I don't know who yet, but someone good enough to make Granger our second-best player.

I'm excited about that possible $40 million in expirings, because, well, it's hard to find very much else to be excited about with this team. I just hope Bird doesn't spend it on the likes of Ben Gordon/Charlie Villanueva. Get someone you can truly build the team around, even if you have to wait a year or two for someone like that to become available. I don't really want to have to be that patient, but better to be patient with a team that has financial flexbility than to be impatient with a team that has shot its wad and still isn't a contender.

[pacershereiam]

I agree with you mizzou. I want to make the right moves. It's been ages since we have had cap space to be players in the free agent market. And with all the expirings trades will be nice too. I just hope we don't waste this golden opportunity. This is our chance to get ourselves out of this drought. I mean look at what we have coming up: top 5 pick most likely, 40 million in expiring contracts. so maybe even trade some of those for another top 5 pick or top 10 pick? Never know how desperate a team is. My thoughts.

[Dunthreevy]

I'm hoping we can somehow manage to get the #1 pick, even if it means trading our top 5 pick (assuming we have one) and one of our expirings to get it. We NEED John Wall, as a team, as a city, as a business, we need him. Anything that happens after that will be icing on the cake this summer.

[basketballwacko2]

I'd be ok with the #2 pick if NJ gets the #1 they would probably pick Wall, we'd take Evan Turner, and then make a trade with the Nets to aquire Devin Harris. I'd give them Rush, TJ and Dunleavy and a future #1. I know that doesn't work on the checker but by the summer they will be well under the cap. That is of course assuming they don't sign a Bosh, Lebron, Amare or Wade.

[Starkiller]

I'm hoping we can somehow manage to get the #1 pick, even if it means trading our top 5 pick (assuming we have one) and one of our expirings to get it. We NEED John Wall, as a team, as a city, as a business, we need him. Anything that happens after that will be icing on the cake this summer.

I'd give any of our expirings and our #1 for John Wall. Any of them, maybe even two of them.

[Wizop]

I really hope we don't try to sign a free agent franchise player. I want to do it Colts style where the stars come through the draft. now Bird did say something about being able to hand pick veterans and I can see that but I think he's thinking veteran role players to complete the core roster that will come from the draft. the difference will be with cap room we won't be limited to minimum salary players.

I really don't see that point of giving up our high salary players for some other teams unwanted high salary players. if the object were to get Elton Brand, you probably could have gotten him this week. I'm hoping our next 20/10 guy is Hibbert.

[count55]

Probably won't be able to spend much more than $20mm of the expirings, so we probably should stop throwing the $40mm number around.

[Charcoal Filtered]

We would also have the salaries of draft picks in 2010 and 2011, plus planned decreases in the salary cap. Might not have even that 20M. I would like to see the new CBA before commenting fully, but we have never been able to land a major FA. Best bet would probably be to go into full tank mode, draft best player available this year and next, and fill in thru FA the positions we do not draft.

We may be pretty close to the luxury tax limit next year. Would not be surprised to see a trade like the Chandler/Okefor deal trading a short/big contract for a long/smaller one.

[basketballwacko2]

We would also have the salaries of draft picks in 2010 and 2011, plus planned decreases in the salary cap. Might not have even that 20M. I would like to see the new CBA before commenting fully, but we have never been able to land a major FA. Best bet would probably be to go into full tank mode, draft best player available this year and next, and fill in thru FA the positions we do not draft.

We may be pretty close to the luxury tax limit next year. Would not be surprised to see a trade like the Chandler/Okefor deal trading a short/big contract for a long/smaller one.

So how about TJ for Udrih and draft pick from Sacto.

Or maybe Dunleavy for Milsap from Utah?

Maybe Foster for ZaZa Pachulia, or Murphy for Hinrich? I'd might be willing to do one of those if we could get a pick for the trouble of taking on the longer deal.

[8305]

Immediate future, the rest of this season should be about player development. HIbbert, Rush, Hansbrough (when he gets back) and Price should be getting as many minutes as they can handle. Before the season is over I'd like to see Granger on the floor with the four young guys.

2010 draft, I'm not counting on a top five pick. I expect the following teams to have records worse than us before its over.
1. New jersey
2. Minnesota
3. Washington
4. Detroit
5. Golden State
6. L.A. Clippers
I'm preparing for a pick in the 6 to 10 range.

I was initially disappointed when we didn't get a trade done. Just tired of watching this group play. It would appear Bird is of the mind the longer we hold onto the 2011 expiring guys the more they will be worth. And, I can see the logic in this. If a team with cap space doesn't land a top ten free agent this summer I could see where someone with a short contract could make more sense than long term money to an average to slightly above average player.

There will be teams who have hoarded cap space for this summer who don't score. When these teams are looking to salvage the 2010/2011 season a veteran player with a short contract could look pretty good. I could see us acquiring additional 2011 first round picks.

Short of hitting a top three pick (Wall, Favors, Turner) our best opportunity could be that you are looking a 50% chance of the Nets or TWolves getting the number one pick. If one of them does it would seem either Flynn or Harris could be available and we might have a high enough pick to be an attractive trading partner.

[Dunthreevy]

Immediate future, the rest of this season should be about player development. HIbbert, Rush, Hansbrough (when he gets back) and Price should be getting as many minutes as they can handle. Before the season is over I'd like to see Granger on the floor with the four young guys.

2010 draft, I'm not counting on a top five pick. I expect the following teams to have records worse than us before its over.
1. New jersey
2. Minnesota
3. Washington
4. Detroit
5. Golden State
6. L.A. Clippers
I'm preparing for a pick in the 6 to 10 range.

I was initially disappointed when we didn't get a trade done. Just tired of watching this group play. It would appear Bird is of the mind the longer we hold onto the 2011 expiring guys the more they will be worth. And, I can see the logic in this. If a team with cap space doesn't land a top ten free agent this summer I could see where someone with a short contract could make more sense than long term money to an average to slightly above average player.

There will be teams who have hoarded cap space for this summer who don't score. When these teams are looking to salvage the 2010/2011 season a veteran player with a short contract could look pretty good. I could see us acquiring additional 2011 first round picks.

Short of hitting a top three pick (Wall, Favors, Turner) our best opportunity could be that you are looking a 50% chance of the Nets or TWolves getting the number one pick. If one of them does it would seem either Flynn or Harris could be available and we might have a high enough pick to be an attractive trading partner.

So you actually see us outplaying Detroit, Golden State, and the Clippers the rest of the season?

[8305]

Yea, I don't really see it requiring a monumental effort. For that matter you still have the Knicks and 76ers who could out tank us.

[Dunthreevy]

Yea, I don't really see it requiring a monumental effort. For that matter you still have the Knicks and 76ers who could out tank us.

If the Pacers don't have one of the 5 worst records in the NBA at the end of the season, I will renew my season tickets the day the season ends. Our team is horrible, and our schedule post-All Star break is more difficult than it was pre-All Star break. I can't see us winning more than 10 games the rest of the season, and if there are 5 other teams in the NBA who win less than 28 games I'll be shocked. Unless I miscounted, we have 8 games the rest of the season against opponents who have a sub .500 record. We have 20 games remaining against teams with records above .500. So far this season...

6-22 vs. winning teams
12-14 vs. losing teams

even against the losing teams we're sub .500. So don't discredit just how bad we really are.

[8305]

Yea, I don't really see it requiring a monumental effort. For that matter you still have the Knicks and 76ers who could out tank us.

If the Pacers don't have one of the 5 worst records in the NBA at the end of the season, I will renew my season tickets the day the season ends. Our team is horrible, and our schedule post-All Star break is more difficult than it was pre-All Star break. I can't see us winning more than 10 games the rest of the season, and if there are 5 other teams in the NBA who win less than 28 games I'll be shocked. Unless I miscounted, we have 8 games the rest of the season against opponents who have a sub .500 record. We have 20 games remaining against teams with records above .500. So far this season...

6-22 vs. winning teams
12-14 vs. losing teams

even against the losing teams we're sub .500. So don't discredit just how bad we really are.

You may be right about only winning 10 more games. I still see the competition for one of the 5 worst records being pretty stiff. Take Detroit, the last couple times we've played them we've won by twenty. Tracy McGready in New York doesn't look like many wins to me. Much like the last couple years a two or three game winning streak could be pretty tough to recover from.

[Charcoal Filtered]

So how about TJ for Udrih and draft pick from Sacto.

Or maybe Dunleavy for Milsap from Utah?

Maybe Foster for ZaZa Pachulia, or Murphy for Hinrich? I'd might be willing to do one of those if we could get a pick for the trouble of taking on the longer deal.

The Sacramento deal might be possible, but only if they are wanting space next year. I do not think they are desperate to get rid of Beno where they give up much.

Utah is not going to deal Milsap for an expiring. Boozer may be gone soon and they get out from under the Kirilenko deal next offseason. Chicago has also been offered expirings for Hinrich and believe they would have already traded if they wanted since this is the year they have cap space. Atlanta is probably happy with the production they get from ZaZa for the price.

The goal of trading a short contract for a longer would be to get under the tax and not getting compensation back. Not advocating it, just saying it has a high probability of happening.

[basketballwacko2]

Here is a dream senario. Pacers win the Lotto, get #1 pick overall, Sacto gets #2 pick. I think Evan Turner is the best player in the draft, Sacto wants Wall really bad, we swap picks, give the Ford and Murph for Thompson, Nocioni and Udrih and a pick in 2011 or 2012.

We save about $5 million and still have Dunleavy and Foster who exprire at the end of the year. Nocioni's contract is one that declines and Thompson has huge upside. Since they have Landry they might be willing to give up Thompson.

Big risk in that dream is that Udrih sucks and Wall becomes the next Criss Paul only 4 inches taller!