The Brock Purdy Thread

[Pattersonca65]

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/qbs-under-pressure-in-2023

There is a Purdy section around the middle of the article and the biggest difference between him and Jimmy G was the massive gulf in effectiveness when it came to performing under pressure.

The article basically concludes that Purdy doesn't raise the ceiling of the offense much because Jimmy G was very good in a clean pocket even though Purdy is still better but dramatically raises the floor because of how effective Purdy is when dealing with pressure.

Good article that really emphasizes some of the less recognizable aspects of Purdy's remarkable play last year, including that he was pressured A LOT. The only guy who ranks ahead of him on the list I discussed above that was pressured more was Kirk Cousins. Cousins is also good under pressure, and was having arguably the best start to his career.

Purdy was elite both under pressure and not under pressure. Just utterly dominant in almost every facet. There's a fair chance (actually a very good chance, as it would be hard to replicate his numbers last year) that he regresses a bit this year, but there's room for him to regress and still be at or near the top of the league in both categories.

Again, I don't think anyone is seriously arguing Purdy is one of the top QBs in the league at this point (though a couple places have ranked him #2 behind only Mahomes), but he's clearly among the better QBs in the league by effectively any metric you use. And

I think the article oversimplifies the differences between Purdy and Jimmy G. I don't mean to be jumping on Jimmy G now, he was a mid-tier QB that had his moments. His quick release was one of his best features to offset the rush. But there are some other big differnecs between Jimmy G and Purdy. One major difference between the two is Purdy ability on deeper throws and his accuracy on those throws. Jimmy G maybe because of Shanahan rarely took deep shots and was not very accurate when he did. He also rarely threw sideline routes. One thing about Jimmy G that always concerned me before a game was which Jimmy would show up. Sometimes Jimmy came into a game confident and ready to play. At times he looked like a top ten QB, accurate and decisive. Other times he looked shaky and was inaccurate with his passes.

[CrimsonCrew]

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/qbs-under-pressure-in-2023

There is a Purdy section around the middle of the article and the biggest difference between him and Jimmy G was the massive gulf in effectiveness when it came to performing under pressure.

The article basically concludes that Purdy doesn't raise the ceiling of the offense much because Jimmy G was very good in a clean pocket even though Purdy is still better but dramatically raises the floor because of how effective Purdy is when dealing with pressure.

Good article that really emphasizes some of the less recognizable aspects of Purdy's remarkable play last year, including that he was pressured A LOT. The only guy who ranks ahead of him on the list I discussed above that was pressured more was Kirk Cousins. Cousins is also good under pressure, and was having arguably the best start to his career.

Purdy was elite both under pressure and not under pressure. Just utterly dominant in almost every facet. There's a fair chance (actually a very good chance, as it would be hard to replicate his numbers last year) that he regresses a bit this year, but there's room for him to regress and still be at or near the top of the league in both categories.

Again, I don't think anyone is seriously arguing Purdy is one of the top QBs in the league at this point (though a couple places have ranked him #2 behind only Mahomes), but he's clearly among the better QBs in the league by effectively any metric you use. And

I think the article oversimplifies the differences between Purdy and Jimmy G. I don't mean to be jumping on Jimmy G now, he was a mid-tier QB that had his moments. His quick release was one of his best features to offset the rush. But there are some other big differnecs between Jimmy G and Purdy. One major difference between the two is Purdy ability on deeper throws and his accuracy on those throws. Jimmy G maybe because of Shanahan rarely took deep shots and was not very accurate when he did. He also rarely threw sideline routes. One thing about Jimmy G that always concerned me before a game was which Jimmy would show up. Sometimes Jimmy came into a game confident and ready to play. At times he looked like a top ten QB, accurate and decisive. Other times he looked shaky and was inaccurate with his passes.

Definitely. One of the major issues with Jimmy was that the passing offense was limited to a box that ended about ten yards from either sideline and 15 yards past the LOS. Inside that box, you were probably okay unless Bad Jimmy showed up. Outside of that box, you were probably going to get more bad than good. And that made our offense too easy to defend.

Purdy is lethal on outs within 15 yards of the LOS and on deep crossers between 15-25 yards past the LOS. He can attack all areas of the field in the short and intermediate area, and excels at attacking the deep middle. He still needs to improve the deep fades, posts, and corners, but outside of that he can make just about any throw with accuracy, timing, and anticipation.

[wco81]

One thing about Jimmy is that he changed after his knee injury.

Also, he had other routes when he was at NE.

When he first played for the 49ers after the trade, he was more decisive and while he didn't throw those flag routes, he wasn't limited to throwing just between the hashes.

That season, 49ers started out 0-6 and I believe after the trade, they not only won their first game but went on a mini winning streak. So while Shanahan was relieved, you could tell he wasn't too happy about the way their passing game was going because it wasn't fully his.

The same way after CJ made some plays out of the pocket to get a win early in Kyle's tenure, he was happy for the win but noted that Bethard made some plays which he didn't design.

He's like those basketball players, it's not enough to win, he has to score his points. That rigidity -- his way or the highway -- is probably one of the reasons he's never won it all. Also likely why he will NEVER give Purdy or any other QB too long a leash.

[Jikkle]

One thing about Jimmy is that he changed after his knee injury.

Also, he had other routes when he was at NE.

When he first played for the 49ers after the trade, he was more decisive and while he didn't throw those flag routes, he wasn't limited to throwing just between the hashes.

That season, 49ers started out 0-6 and I believe after the trade, they not only won their first game but went on a mini winning streak. So while Shanahan was relieved, you could tell he wasn't too happy about the way their passing game was going because it wasn't fully his.

The same way after CJ made some plays out of the pocket to get a win early in Kyle's tenure, he was happy for the win but noted that Bethard made some plays which he didn't design.

He's like those basketball players, it's not enough to win, he has to score his points. That rigidity -- his way or the highway -- is probably one of the reasons he's never won it all. Also likely why he will NEVER give Purdy or any other QB too long a leash.

I don't know if I'd say it's rigidity but I think Shanahan is a control freak and so confident in his system that he believes if it's executed correctly it should always work.

I think he hates off-schedule plays that could've been executed on schedule which is why I think he's been critical of his QBs in the past.

It's why he loves Purdy because Purdy is so good at processing that he usually makes the correct decision every play and when he does do off-schedule things it's because he had to and not because he turned down a throw that should've been made.

[Jikkle]

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/failed-completions-2023

Another interesting set of stats that are a positive for Purdy.

Though to me advanced stats and metrics are nice discussion points but as hard as they try they'll never make football an analytic sport like baseball is. The eyeball test is always going to be a critical part of evaluations though I don't completely dismiss analytics as combined with the eyeball test they can give you a fuller picture of a player.

I find the advanced analytic people, the film study crowd and former QBs turned evaluators tend to think highly of Purdy whereas it's usually the talking heads with the driveby takes that are critical of him.

[Pattersonca65]

One thing about Jimmy is that he changed after his knee injury.

Also, he had other routes when he was at NE.

When he first played for the 49ers after the trade, he was more decisive and while he didn't throw those flag routes, he wasn't limited to throwing just between the hashes.

That season, 49ers started out 0-6 and I believe after the trade, they not only won their first game but went on a mini winning streak. So while Shanahan was relieved, you could tell he wasn't too happy about the way their passing game was going because it wasn't fully his.

The same way after CJ made some plays out of the pocket to get a win early in Kyle's tenure, he was happy for the win but noted that Bethard made some plays which he didn't design.

He's like those basketball players, it's not enough to win, he has to score his points. That rigidity -- his way or the highway -- is probably one of the reasons he's never won it all. Also likely why he will NEVER give Purdy or any other QB too long a leash.

I don't know if I'd say it's rigidity but I think Shanahan is a control freak and so confident in his system that he believes if it's executed correctly it should always work.

I think he hates off-schedule plays that could've been executed on schedule which is why I think he's been critical of his QBs in the past.

It's why he loves Purdy because Purdy is so good at processing that he usually makes the correct decision every play and when he does do off-schedule things it's because he had to and not because he turned down a throw that should've been made.

That is why Shanahan generally avoids running QBs like Lamar Jackson. Russell Wilson would have given Shanahan a heart attack if RW was his starting QB

[CrimsonCrew]

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/failed-completions-2023

Another interesting set of stats that are a positive for Purdy.

Though to me advanced stats and metrics are nice discussion points but as hard as they try they'll never make football an analytic sport like baseball is. The eyeball test is always going to be a critical part of evaluations though I don't completely dismiss analytics as combined with the eyeball test they can give you a fuller picture of a player.

I find the advanced analytic people, the film study crowd and former QBs turned evaluators tend to think highly of Purdy whereas it's usually the talking heads with the driveby takes that are critical of him.

Very interesting, and not surprising to those who have watched much of Purdy. You can probably attribute some of that to the scheme and the playmakers, as we have a few guys who excel at turning short passes into positive plays. But Purdy's other metrics suggest that's not the only thing happening with that stat.

Kirk Cousins is quite low on the list, not shockingly. IMO, this has always been one of his limitations as a QB. The raw numbers look good, but he just doesn't quite seem to get it done in crunch time. He often checks down on third and short. And indeed, his 31.5% number is almost double Purdy's and well toward the bottom of the league.

[CrimsonCrew]

One thing about Jimmy is that he changed after his knee injury.

Also, he had other routes when he was at NE.

When he first played for the 49ers after the trade, he was more decisive and while he didn't throw those flag routes, he wasn't limited to throwing just between the hashes.

That season, 49ers started out 0-6 and I believe after the trade, they not only won their first game but went on a mini winning streak. So while Shanahan was relieved, you could tell he wasn't too happy about the way their passing game was going because it wasn't fully his.

The same way after CJ made some plays out of the pocket to get a win early in Kyle's tenure, he was happy for the win but noted that Bethard made some plays which he didn't design.

He's like those basketball players, it's not enough to win, he has to score his points. That rigidity -- his way or the highway -- is probably one of the reasons he's never won it all. Also likely why he will NEVER give Purdy or any other QB too long a leash.

I don't know if I'd say it's rigidity but I think Shanahan is a control freak and so confident in his system that he believes if it's executed correctly it should always work.

I think he hates off-schedule plays that could've been executed on schedule which is why I think he's been critical of his QBs in the past.

It's why he loves Purdy because Purdy is so good at processing that he usually makes the correct decision every play and when he does do off-schedule things it's because he had to and not because he turned down a throw that should've been made.

That is why Shanahan generally avoids running QBs like Lamar Jackson. Russell Wilson would have given Shanahan a heart attack if RW was his starting QB

Yeah, and that's why I was pretty confident he would not like Fields in that draft. Still the guy I wanted because of the clearly superior physical tools, but I think Shanahan would have lost it with him.

[CrimsonCrew]

Chris Simms recently had a piece on how much better the Niners would be with Jordan Love instead of Purdy.

It's a defensible position in the abstract. Love doesn't have the supporting cast Purdy does, he's the more physically talented player, and he really came on down the stretch last year. That said, his three-game win streak to close out the season came against the Bears (7-10), the Vikings (7-10, and in the midst of a 1-6 run; the lone win was the 3-0 game against Oakland), and the Panthers (2-15). He dropped games to the Buccaneers and Giants going into that stretch, with QBRs in the 50s for both games. He did knock off KC and Detroit with probably his best two performances (other than the Cowboys playoff game) prior to that. He was really bad to start the year, compiling a 3-6 record out of the gate and posting QBRs of 48.3, 5.9, 18.0, 19/3, and 39.7.

The question for Love is which guy is the real QB, or is he somewhere in between. There are plenty of reasons for optimism. He had an extremely young supporting cast, and there's a strong argument to be made that he and they turned a corner as the season progressed. That said, it's also a very small sample size of good play. Kaepernick looked like a beast for a couple years there, until his inability to read defenses showed through. It's far from certain Love continues the way he ended.

Brock was awesome much of the year, granted with an excellent cast. Simms complains about Purdy's motion. I hadn't heard that, and although it's not super compact, I also don't see it as being so exaggerated. But it's something he can work on during his first true offseason. And at the end of the day, the concern with a long windup is if you're not getting the ball out on time, which clearly is not a problem for Purdy.

And let's talk about how Love ended his season. Yes, for three quarters he outplayed Purdy in the playoffs. Love was solid through much of the game. Several of his big plays were to wide open receivers on apparent blown coverages, including his first TD, but he also threaded the needle several times and didn't seem all that hampered by the conditions. Despite Purdy's struggles, the Niners had just gone up 14-13 when the Packers got a huge KO return, setting them up at our 20 (how is it that our STs coach still has a job, particularly when they have changed the rules to make the kickoff so much more important?).

Love really fell apart down the stretch, though. He threw the two back-breaking INTs to Greenlaw, of course. The first was high and behind an open TE and was popped up. At the start of the 4th quarter, he put another ball right in Lenoir's hands, which Lenoir dropped. And, of course, trailing by three with two TOs and 52 seconds left, he threw an awful INT into triple coverage to seal the game. Love's game early on was solid but unspectacular. But in the last 17 minutes of the game, he was awful. In his last three drives, he went 6 of 10 for 31 yards (3.1 YPA!!!) for no TDs and two INTs. He threw three turnover-worthy passes. And it cost his team the game.

Not intending to make excuses - I actually think it's a pretty concerning issue - but Purdy was clearly struggling with the weather for much of the game, and just didn't have his typical accuracy. He was incredibly scattershot for most of the game. He put two balls on Packers' hands that they flat-out dropped (I believe one was tipped by Jennings). Simms references seven dropped INTs, and that's obvious hyperbole, but I can't see any argument fore more than two. Love had two actual INTs and a third ball that hit a CB's hands.

But as he did in the playoffs repeatedly this past year, Purdy shook off his early game struggles to put together a strong end. After Kittle flat-out dropped what would have been a big first-down on 2nd down, Purdy came back on 3rd down with a very tight-window throw to Aiyuk to convert (Aiyuk bailed him out with a great catch of a low ball on an earlier 3rd down). And he had a big run to set up the McCaffrey TD late. Definitely not his best game. Closer to one of his worst. But he made plays when it counted and got it done, while Love fell apart.

[CrimsonCrew]

I re-watched all of Love's dropbacks in the game, and I'm pretty unimpressed. Niners were getting solid pressure throughout, but Love only made two really nice passes all game. One was the roll-out that a Packers' fan cited as an example of a play Purdy couldn't make (he has). Good ball on the move. Another was a tight-window throw close to the goal line. Other than those two balls, the vast majority of his passes were check-downs or to wide open guys (Niners defenders outright fell two or three times, leading to big plays and at least one TD). Now, good on him for finding the open guy, of course, but certainly this was not some great game until the very end. It was a pretty mundane game until he collapsed.

As said before, Purdy was pretty bad for much of the game, with a bunch of off-target misses. But I think he threw more tough balls than Love in this one.

It's a one-game sample, in weather, and Love was playing against our D while Purdy was playing against their D. But I don't think it's anything like a given that Love was better overall, even if we overlooked the final INT.

[Jikkle]

Chris Simms recently had a piece on how much better the Niners would be with Jordan Love instead of Purdy.

It's a defensible position in the abstract. Love doesn't have the supporting cast Purdy does, he's the more physically talented player, and he really came on down the stretch last year. That said, his three-game win streak to close out the season came against the Bears (7-10), the Vikings (7-10, and in the midst of a 1-6 run; the lone win was the 3-0 game against Oakland), and the Panthers (2-15). He dropped games to the Buccaneers and Giants going into that stretch, with QBRs in the 50s for both games. He did knock off KC and Detroit with probably his best two performances (other than the Cowboys playoff game) prior to that. He was really bad to start the year, compiling a 3-6 record out of the gate and posting QBRs of 48.3, 5.9, 18.0, 19/3, and 39.7.

The question for Love is which guy is the real QB, or is he somewhere in between. There are plenty of reasons for optimism. He had an extremely young supporting cast, and there's a strong argument to be made that he and they turned a corner as the season progressed. That said, it's also a very small sample size of good play. Kaepernick looked like a beast for a couple years there, until his inability to read defenses showed through. It's far from certain Love continues the way he ended.

Brock was awesome much of the year, granted with an excellent cast. Simms complains about Purdy's motion. I hadn't heard that, and although it's not super compact, I also don't see it as being so exaggerated. But it's something he can work on during his first true offseason. And at the end of the day, the concern with a long windup is if you're not getting the ball out on time, which clearly is not a problem for Purdy.

And let's talk about how Love ended his season. Yes, for three quarters he outplayed Purdy in the playoffs. Love was solid through much of the game. Several of his big plays were to wide open receivers on apparent blown coverages, including his first TD, but he also threaded the needle several times and didn't seem all that hampered by the conditions. Despite Purdy's struggles, the Niners had just gone up 14-13 when the Packers got a huge KO return, setting them up at our 20 (how is it that our STs coach still has a job, particularly when they have changed the rules to make the kickoff so much more important?).

Love really fell apart down the stretch, though. He threw the two back-breaking INTs to Greenlaw, of course. The first was high and behind an open TE and was popped up. At the start of the 4th quarter, he put another ball right in Lenoir's hands, which Lenoir dropped. And, of course, trailing by three with two TOs and 52 seconds left, he threw an awful INT into triple coverage to seal the game. Love's game early on was solid but unspectacular. But in the last 17 minutes of the game, he was awful. In his last three drives, he went 6 of 10 for 31 yards (3.1 YPA!!!) for no TDs and two INTs. He threw three turnover-worthy passes. And it cost his team the game.

Not intending to make excuses - I actually think it's a pretty concerning issue - but Purdy was clearly struggling with the weather for much of the game, and just didn't have his typical accuracy. He was incredibly scattershot for most of the game. He put two balls on Packers' hands that they flat-out dropped (I believe one was tipped by Jennings). Simms references seven dropped INTs, and that's obvious hyperbole, but I can't see any argument fore more than two. Love had two actual INTs and a third ball that hit a CB's hands.

But as he did in the playoffs repeatedly this past year, Purdy shook off his early game struggles to put together a strong end. After Kittle flat-out dropped what would have been a big first-down on 2nd down, Purdy came back on 3rd down with a very tight-window throw to Aiyuk to convert (Aiyuk bailed him out with a great catch of a low ball on an earlier 3rd down). And he had a big run to set up the McCaffrey TD late. Definitely not his best game. Closer to one of his worst. But he made plays when it counted and got it done, while Love fell apart.

Love was basically a no show in the 2nd half of the playoff game against us. If Love was the player Simms thinks he was the Packers would've won that game because Love would've gotten them enough points to not even give Purdy the chance to comeback. Like I've mentioned a few times in other posts in this thread would you rather the QB that gets it done when it counts or the one that looks amazing when it doesn't matter much and chokes when it does?

Simm's ranking of Purdy is utter garbage because there isn't anything of substance to support his arguments. Almost all advanced metrics Purdy ranks high in and the results speak for themselves. Anyone who actually watched the playoffs would know that a QB that you're saying is 17th in the league would have never gotten them to the Super Bowl. It's obvious with anyone with two eyes that this supposedly loaded roster wasn't putting Purdy on his back and dragging him through the playoffs.

[Harry Palmer]

I kinda pass on all Simms stuff re: Niners, not because his opinion is invalid, but rather it’s so filtered through his relationship with Kyle that I can’t tell if he’s appeasing, proving he’s not a yes man, or what, so I don’t bother trying to decider it.