Long-Term Investments

[NinerSickness]

The typical thinking with football fans is very static. It's this: is he good? Sign him up. Is he bad? Cut or trade him. It really doesn't work that way. There are more factors than just how well they performed the previous year to determine if the guy's a good long-term investment like:

1. How much money is he going to make. Is wide receiver good to great? Ok. Is he gonna make 16 million a year? Might not be worth it.
2. Has he shown the overall desire to win over just making money and being in the spotlight (and partying?). Give a guy a huge contract, and sometimes he's not as concerned about putting in any extra work.
3. He his career peaked? This is a difficult one to gauge, but if a guy just seems to be playing far, far better than he should be, it's probably because he's just at this temporary high he'll never maintain. This one is why I wanted the Niners to trade Michael Crabtree after the SB loss to the Ravens. I knew he wasn't that good, but he had a career year. They should've traded & upgraded; it might've been enough to win a SB the following year.

That said, here's what I think of some individual players long-term. I'll omit Kaepernick because you all know what I think of him already.

1. Alex Boone: No go. He's in or a serious pay day if he shows he's even a good tackle this year. He's already shown that he'll put himself over the team, and I think he's lost that attitude of proving everyone wrong when he was undrafted. I'd trade him or let him walk.

2. Vernon Davis: I'd keep him. Franchise him (if Aldon re-signs) if necssary. His stock is low, and TEs can play at a high level for a long time. And his age gives the Niners a lot of leverage because they can franchise him until he's 34 if they really want to.

3. Aldon: wildcard. If they can get clauses that protect the team from arrests, then it's a no-brainer. Lock him up (so to speak). You don't let a pass rusher like that go. Nobody would trade the farm for him like they would if not for the arrests, so ya gotta get a deal done.

4. Joe Looney: let him go. He doesn't have much on a rookie OL they can develop.

5. Joe Staley: I'd look into trading him too. I don't think he's young enough to be effective by the time the team could rebuild (meaning develop a QB). This may seem to contradict what I said about Vernon, but Vernon isn't under contract through 2019. They could keep him around the whole time, but I think they'd be better off developing a young LT too. Maybe try Brandon Thomas there.

6. Glenn Dorsey: keep him around. Valuable piece; not to pricey. You can't have too many good DL.

7. Ahmad Brooks: depends on if he'll play ILB. The team has tons of talent at OLB. If he's going to be purely an OLB, I say get rid of him ASAP. Let Lynch, Lemonier & Harold play for cheap. If Brooks is going to play ILB, maybe he can fill the void of a gimpy Patrick WIllis. He's a great all-around OLB, but he's just an average pass rusher IMO.

[CrimsonCrew]

The typical thinking with football fans is very static. It's this: is he good? Sign him up. Is he bad? Cut or trade him. It really doesn't work that way. There are more factors than just how well they performed the previous year to determine if the guy's a good long-term investment like:

1. How much money is he going to make. Is wide receiver good to great? Ok. Is he gonna make 16 million a year? Might not be worth it.
2. Has he shown the overall desire to win over just making money and being in the spotlight (and partying?). Give a guy a huge contract, and sometimes he's not as concerned about putting in any extra work.
3. He his career peaked? This is a difficult one to gauge, but if a guy just seems to be playing far, far better than he should be, it's probably because he's just at this temporary high he'll never maintain. This one is why I wanted the Niners to trade Michael Crabtree after the SB loss to the Ravens. I knew he wasn't that good, but he had a career year. They should've traded & upgraded; it might've been enough to win a SB the following year.

That said, here's what I think of some individual players long-term. I'll omit Kaepernick because you all know what I think of him already.

1. Alex Boone: No go. He's in or a serious pay day if he shows he's even a good tackle this year. He's already shown that he'll put himself over the team, and I think he's lost that attitude of proving everyone wrong when he was undrafted. I'd trade him or let him walk.

2. Vernon Davis: I'd keep him. Franchise him (if Aldon re-signs) if necssary. His stock is low, and TEs can play at a high level for a long time. And his age gives the Niners a lot of leverage because they can franchise him until he's 34 if they really want to.

3. Aldon: wildcard. If they can get clauses that protect the team from arrests, then it's a no-brainer. Lock him up (so to speak). You don't let a pass rusher like that go. Nobody would trade the farm for him like they would if not for the arrests, so ya gotta get a deal done.

4. Joe Looney: let him go. He doesn't have much on a rookie OL they can develop.

5. Joe Staley: I'd look into trading him too. I don't think he's young enough to be effective by the time the team could rebuild (meaning develop a QB). This may seem to contradict what I said about Vernon, but Vernon isn't under contract through 2019. They could keep him around the whole time, but I think they'd be better off developing a young LT too. Maybe try Brandon Thomas there.

6. Glenn Dorsey: keep him around. Valuable piece; not to pricey. You can't have too many good DL.

7. Ahmad Brooks: depends on if he'll play ILB. The team has tons of talent at OLB. If he's going to be purely an OLB, I say get rid of him ASAP. Let Lynch, Lemonier & Harold play for cheap. If Brooks is going to play ILB, maybe he can fill the void of a gimpy Patrick WIllis. He's a great all-around OLB, but he's just an average pass rusher IMO.

Crabtree is kind of a false comparison. The guy suffered arguably the worst injury an NFL player can suffer and hasn't been the same since. Who knows what would have happened if he stayed healthy?

Having said that, I don't disagree with most of your assessments here. I wouldn't move Staley unless we can get a high pick for him - a first minimum IMO. With him, I think we can still compete for the playoffs if things shake out right. Without him, there's little doubt we're in hardcore rebuilding mode. I think Looney's 50/50 to make the squad. He's got to show pretty serious improvement. I was shocked Brooks wasn't cut pre-draft, but he's probably our best OLB against the run and in coverage, so he may stick for that reason. Harold has the tools to surpass him in that area, but I don't think he's there now. This will probably depend on Lemonier, though. I'd love to see him beat out Brooks, just not convinced he will.

[Jikkle]

Aldon is really the only guy I would lock up long term assuming he doesn't do anything stupid this year and there are clauses that protect the team if he does do anything stupid after a contract extension. I mean the team doesn't need a Blackmon or Gordon situation.

Regarding Staley I don't disagree but I would still keep as his contract is pretty dirt cheap for an LT. In 2017 it spikes to 8 million but all the other years it's about 5 million which is pretty cheap for a top shelf LT. And when he does decline you can always move him to RT and have a young stud take the LT spot.

Dorsey I would keep as long as the price is right. Always been a firm believer that great defenses are able to rotate their defensive lines throughout a game without much drop off and Dorsey would be a good piece for that rotation.

Brooks should be gone and I'm sure the only reason he's not is he could fill in as an emergency ILB and Lynch isn't quite ready to be a full time OLB yet.

VD's problem is his best attribute is speed which is only going to steadily decline as he gets older. Depending on his year this year I would keep him but I would hardly break the bank to retain him.

[NinerSickness]

VD's problem is his best attribute is speed which is only going to steadily decline as he gets older. Depending on his year this year I would keep him but I would hardly break the bank to retain him.

I wouldn't either. But with as much leverage as the team would have, I don't think they'd have to.