The Trey Lance thread

[CrimsonCrew]

Florio always rubbed me the wrong way and when people complain about snooty elite journalists it's usually his type they are talking about. But I don't know the guy personally so he might be a great guy with some bad football opinions and I'm just stating the vibe he gives off.

Still blows my mind that some of these guys in the media can't grasp the concept that the 9ers traded up with someone in mind and would've been comfortable taking but with extra time did their due diligence to see if someone else changed their minds.

If your house shopping and the 1st house you visit you fall in love with doesn't mean you don't stop looking at other houses. You look closely at that 1st house to make sure it doesn't have termite damage and you look at other houses to see if you love them more. Then when it comes time to make a decision if you still love that 1st house the most you proceed to try to buy that house.

Whether Lance was the guy all along or not will be impossible to tell since whomever they picked was going to be the guy all along but I tend to believe they aren't lying when Lance was the leader in the clubhouse for the entire process.

He checks a lot of boxes that Shanahan would love.

Lance had the elite physical traits that Shanahan was looking for.

Lance has the smarts that Kyle loves.

Lance did a lot of things in college that he'd do under Kyle so it was easy for Kyle to envision how he'd look in his offense.

And it goes a bit underrated but Lance to me was the best out of all the QBs throwing on the move which Kyle covets because he likes to move his QB around a lot.

Yes Kyle wants a guy that will operate his offense but I believe Kyle realized he needs a guy that can make a play when things don't go according to plan which they don't always do.

Mac Jones would've operated the offense but like Jimmy G wouldn't do much if things went haywire and he had to play backyard football. Lance will operate Kyle's offense when it's working as intended but unlike Mac Jones or Jimmy G he'll be able to be like a Russel Wilson and pull some rabbits out of his hat by making some off schedule plays.

Had to chuckle a little bit at this. That does not describe buying a house in the Bay Area these days. It's more like: find a tolerable place in an area with decent schools that isn't a complete tear-down. Offer cash and $300,000 over asking. Waive the disclosures and pray to God the foundation is okay. Get outbid by $200,000.

[Jikkle]

Read on Twitter

Seems the Falcons weren't in on Trey Lance based on their reaction to the 9ers pick.

The interesting little nugget is they were predicting that Trey Lance was going to be the pick when the trade was made.

The Mac Jones narrative seemed more media driven as from what I gathered over the course of this process GMs and front office guys tended not to believe the 9ers would take Jones at #3.

I still don't believe Lance would've been there at #12 because Benjamin Allbright who is connected with the Broncos was saying they were in on Trey and given they went Bridgewater the day before the draft they probably were confident they wouldn't be able to land Lance.

I tend to think people obsess over draft value too much anyways. Not that I dismiss it as unimportant but we only really focus on it during the draft and after that it becomes a matter if the player is successful or not and if he is how successful.

[CrimsonCrew]

Read on Twitter

Seems the Falcons weren't in on Trey Lance based on their reaction to the 9ers pick.

The interesting little nugget is they were predicting that Trey Lance was going to be the pick when the trade was made.

The Mac Jones narrative seemed more media driven as from what I gathered over the course of this process GMs and front office guys tended not to believe the 9ers would take Jones at #3.

I still don't believe Lance would've been there at #12 because Benjamin Allbright who is connected with the Broncos was saying they were in on Trey and given they went Bridgewater the day before the draft they probably were confident they wouldn't be able to land Lance.

I tend to think people obsess over draft value too much anyways. Not that I dismiss it as unimportant but we only really focus on it during the draft and after that it becomes a matter if the player is successful or not and if he is how successful.

I don't think the value of draft picks can be overstated in today's NFL. With salary cap restraints where they are, and top players - especially QBs - eating into so much of the available space, you simply have to hit on draft picks. And the best way to do that is to make more picks. Even the best talent evaluators have plenty of misses. So take as many shots as you can.

I look at the depth on our roster, and then I think about the picks we have given up to trade up:

2017
A 4th (111) to move up for Foster.
A 7th to move up for Beathard (that's fine; bigger issue was taking Beathard where they did, and keeping him so long).
A 5th (161) to go up for Joe Williams.
A 2018 4th for Bibbs and a 2017 5th.
They did trade a third (67th) for the Saints 2nd in 2018 (ended up being 59th).

2018
A third (74th) to move up for Pettis; they also got a 5th in return.

2019
None of substance.

2020
a 2nd (63) for Ford.
A 4th and 5th for Aiyuk (granted this one might be worth it).

2021
Two 4ths to move up for Sermon.

They have traded back at times, or moved players to recoup some of the picks, but their prevailing tendency is to trade up for specific players. They've done similar things in FA, chronically overpaying in some head-scratching moves. I get the Garcon move as they were trying to get a vet in who would set the tone, but the dude was done and he cost a ton. The Malcolm Smith pickup will go down as one of the worst ever - and no one was even a little surprised by that. They have overpaid Juszczyk for years, but at least he produces. They overpaid McKinnon. They overpaid for Ford both in draft capital and contract. They made a poor decision to pursue Kwon Alexander coming off injury. To some extent, that's the nature of FA, but they're paying guys who aren't premier players like premier players (a healthy Ford the exception, but he wasn't healthy).

And what's the cost? Well, in terms of the FA signings, the cost is losing Buckner. We could have easily retained him if we hadn't blown $9 million on a terrible season from Malcolm Smith. And in the draft, it's being incredibly thin at positions like WR, CB, and TE.

Again, if Lance becomes a HOF QB, those extra first-round picks aren't a big deal. But we traded a ton to land not the first, not the second, but the third QB in the draft. It's unprecedented in NFL history.

[Pattersonca65]

TREY LANCE
QB, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

USA Today's Mark Schofield said 49ers QB Trey Lance could start "sooner than you think."

Schofield cites Lance's familiarity with the complex west coast offense play calling verbiage, his accuracy on short and anticipatory throws, and his athleticism as reasons the rookie could take the Niners' starting job in 2021. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has famously complicated play calling language that, according to Lance's former QB coach Randy Hedberg, won't trip up the rookie. "We verbalize the play in the huddle, and I think that’s one thing that would be a plus for Trey at the next level. He’s done that in our system, but it does resemble more West Coast than anything," Hedberg said. At North Dakota State, Lance became familiar with many Shanahan stables such as boot action, timing throws, and dump offs to fullbacks and tight ends. Lance's ability to scramble, buy time in the pocket, and take off for even short gains could make him a superior option to pocket passer Jimmy Garoppolo, Schofield said. Look for Lance's average draft position to skyrocket if Shanahan so much as hints that the Week 1 job could be his.
SOURCE: USA Today

May 7, 2021, 10:21 AM ET

I've been saying this all along. How much of a project Lance is has been overstated and he's definitely not a 2 or 3 year project some fans seem to think he is and at most he'll ride the bench for a season.

I wouldn't start him for the sake of starting him though. For some reason some media types and even some fans think because he's the 3rd overall pick he has to start now when big picture is that you hope that you have an elite talent for the next 15+ years. I'm not interested in if he contributes in 2021 if he ends up being a top 5 QB 2022 and beyond.

But I wouldn't hesitate to start him week 1 if he's the best option at QB. This team is more than suitable to support a rookie QB as constructed and it's not like we'd be throwing him out there to the wolves.

I stress best option because if Jimmy G is the better option week 1 he should definitely start. We do have a strong roster that's in the Super Bowl mix so we should be putting the guys out there that give us the greatest chance of winning.

Just have to wait and see when training camp and preseason games hit. Lance is supposed to have a high football IQ so maybe he's able to gain enough ground he starts over Jimmy G or maybe with the limited offseason work he simply won't be able to gain enough to overtake Jimmy early on.

They kept Jimmy because it's too late to spend the money we would've gotten from getting rid of him now and it gives them the luxury of playing the QB that gives them the best chance to win and not force a rookie out there or some scrub vet QB to buy the rookie time.

The argument for not starting a rookie QB is to nurture him a little bit and not shatter his confidence when he comes out and struggles. That said, the Niners can avoid a lot of those concerns because of the coaching staff and the strength of the team around him. They've got a generally solid OL, good front-line skill players, and an exceptional coach who can take a lot of pressure off the QB. I'm not advocating for him to start right away; I think there's a lot to be said to developing a bit and learning the speed of the game before getting thrown out there. But I'm not too worried they're going to give him the Alex Smith treatment.

The oline was not solid last year. It was ranked high last year because of run blocking but the pass blocking overall was average at best last year. Maybe chalk that primarily up to injuries. Even McGlinchey struggled at times with Pass Pro last year. There are some new parts to the oline this year. Hopefully pass pro gets better

[yellowknifer]

I would be surprised if Jimmy didn't start. I think they will want to up his trade value.

[CrimsonCrew]

The argument for not starting a rookie QB is to nurture him a little bit and not shatter his confidence when he comes out and struggles. That said, the Niners can avoid a lot of those concerns because of the coaching staff and the strength of the team around him. They've got a generally solid OL, good front-line skill players, and an exceptional coach who can take a lot of pressure off the QB. I'm not advocating for him to start right away; I think there's a lot to be said to developing a bit and learning the speed of the game before getting thrown out there. But I'm not too worried they're going to give him the Alex Smith treatment.

The oline was not solid last year. It was ranked high last year because of run blocking but the pass blocking overall was average at best last year. Maybe chalk that primarily up to injuries. Even McGlinchey struggled at times with Pass Pro last year. There are some new parts to the oline this year. Hopefully pass pro gets better

Agreed re: last year, but I'm expecting better play this year. Alex Mack, even at his advanced age, is a clear upgrade over whatever we had at center last year. We drafted two interior OL. Trent Williams should be more consistent early in the year - not that he was ever a problem. I think this unit should be at least average, and hopefully won't have the two black holes on the interior we ended up with last year.

[Pattersonca65]

I would be surprised if Jimmy didn't start. I think they will want to up his trade value.

I really don't think that would be a reason they would want to start Jimmy G. The FO believes this team can compete for a super bowl and they are going to field the best players. The only reason they would start Jimmy G is because Trey Lance is not ready and they want to move him along slowly.

[yellowknifer]

I would be surprised if Jimmy didn't start. I think they will want to up his trade value.

I really don't think that would be a reason they would want to start Jimmy G. The FO believes this team can compete for a super bowl and they are going to field the best players. The only reason they would start Jimmy G is because Trey Lance is not ready and they want to move him along slowly.

There is that too. But I suspect it takes Trey a minute to get the whole offense. Strongly suspect they want to up Jimmy's value too. He's a pretty good QB if he's healthy. Not perfect, turnover prone a bit etc. But still teams want to maximize their resources.

[Jikkle]

https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/147208-impressions-trey-lances-first-practice-49ers/

Watch on YouTube

Sounds like Lance had a nice day out there. Nothing mind-blowing or earth-shattering since most of his passes were check downs but for the 1st day for a rookie QB that hasn't played much football lately I'd consider it a positive that he had down the basics and looked the part out there.

Obviously can't live on check downs but I'll take being efficient and accurate on his 1st day and I expect him to build up to hitting more challenging throws as the offseason goes on.

[Samurai]

https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/147208-impressions-trey-lances-first-practice-49ers/

Watch on YouTube

Sounds like Lance had a nice day out there. Nothing mind-blowing or earth-shattering since most of his passes were check downs but for the 1st day for a rookie QB that hasn't played much football lately I'd consider it a positive that he had down the basics and looked the part out there.

Obviously can't live on check downs but I'll take being efficient and accurate on his 1st day and I expect him to build up to hitting more challenging throws as the offseason goes on.

As far as most of his passes being short or check downs, and Cohn said he didn't throw one more than 15 yards, I'm assuming that he is executing plays that the coaching staff is calling for him to execute. Since Shanahan calls all the plays in a game, I can't imagine they would tell a rookie to call his own plays and just throw whatever he feels like in his first practice. If he continues to execute the short passes flawlessly, I assume that the coaches will start calling for some different pass patterns in future practices to see how he handles them. Sounds like this is a "so far, so good" report and that is very encouraging.

[Jikkle]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10002722-trey-lance-rumors-latest-on-what-49ers-are-looking-to-see-from-rookie-qb-in-minicamp

Pretty much what everyone thought in that they basically wanted to get his feet wet and see how he did with the basics.

Judging from the impressions out there from the first day he seems to have a firm grasp on the basics so I'm sure they'll crank up the difficulty more and more on him.

I still expect Jimmy G to start week 1 but Lance starting week 1 would not shock me especially if he proves to be significantly better at taking care of the football. Outside being always injured the second thing that drives Shanahan nuts with Jimmy G is the terrible INTs. I think Kyle would glady give up some of the playbook he could run under Jimmy to go with Lance if it meant a significant reduction in turnovers.

It's very clear looking at the draft regardless of who is under center Shanahan wants to run the ball and run the ball a lot. I'm expecting 2019 levels of running the ball. I don't think they did this just for Lance because they probably want to minimize the chances Jimmy could put the ball in harms way and be put in harms way himself but I do think they want it in place just in case Lance does play whether that's because he simply won the job or Jimmy gets hurt.

[Jikkle]

Read on Twitter

[Jikkle]

Regarding the check downs I checked his college stats and he had a 9.7 Y/A and 11.7 AY/A.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/trey-lance-1.html

That's puts him inline with the other 1st round QBs so him being overly cautious and checking down too much is an overblown concern at the moment.

[Pattersonca65]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10002722-trey-lance-rumors-latest-on-what-49ers-are-looking-to-see-from-rookie-qb-in-minicamp

Pretty much what everyone thought in that they basically wanted to get his feet wet and see how he did with the basics.

Judging from the impressions out there from the first day he seems to have a firm grasp on the basics so I'm sure they'll crank up the difficulty more and more on him.

I still expect Jimmy G to start week 1 but Lance starting week 1 would not shock me especially if he proves to be significantly better at taking care of the football. Outside being always injured the second thing that drives Shanahan nuts with Jimmy G is the terrible INTs. I think Kyle would glady give up some of the playbook he could run under Jimmy to go with Lance if it meant a significant reduction in turnovers.

It's very clear looking at the draft regardless of who is under center Shanahan wants to run the ball and run the ball a lot. I'm expecting 2019 levels of running the ball. I don't think they did this just for Lance because they probably want to minimize the chances Jimmy could put the ball in harms way and be put in harms way himself but I do think they

want it in place just in case Lance does play whether that's because he simply won the job or Jimmy gets hurt.

As long as the 49ers are winning and in the Super Bowl hunt and Jimmy G is playing reasonably well, Lance will be lucky to see a liitle playing time this year

[Scoots1994]

Read on Twitter

Seems the Falcons weren't in on Trey Lance based on their reaction to the 9ers pick.

The interesting little nugget is they were predicting that Trey Lance was going to be the pick when the trade was made.

The Mac Jones narrative seemed more media driven as from what I gathered over the course of this process GMs and front office guys tended not to believe the 9ers would take Jones at #3.

I still don't believe Lance would've been there at #12 because Benjamin Allbright who is connected with the Broncos was saying they were in on Trey and given they went Bridgewater the day before the draft they probably were confident they wouldn't be able to land Lance.

I tend to think people obsess over draft value too much anyways. Not that I dismiss it as unimportant but we only really focus on it during the draft and after that it becomes a matter if the player is successful or not and if he is how successful.

I think people give too much credence to mock drafts. They act like they are an absolute value and anything above or below that is a failure. Teams are going to value players differently based on scheme and priorities, and it only takes 2 teams having similar needs to have a team lose a player they want most.

[Jikkle]

Watch on YouTube

I'm in that camp of he's around where he should expected to be now.

Sounds like he has one glaring flaw in his mechanics which I'm optimistic he'll iron out. When that will happen is anybody's guess but as long as he's aware of it and gets proper coaching I'm confident he'll get it right because he sounds like he's that kind of guy that will work on it till it's fixed.

What's good to hear that he's doing well when it comes to the stuff on the move. Naturally you want him to develop into a polished pocket passer but what's going to make him special especially in this offense is his ability to throw on the move.

[CrimsonCrew]

Watch on YouTube

I'm in that camp of he's around where he should expected to be now.

Sounds like he has one glaring flaw in his mechanics which I'm optimistic he'll iron out. When that will happen is anybody's guess but as long as he's aware of it and gets proper coaching I'm confident he'll get it right because he sounds like he's that kind of guy that will work on it till it's fixed.

What's good to hear that he's doing well when it comes to the stuff on the move. Naturally you want him to develop into a polished pocket passer but what's going to make him special especially in this offense is his ability to throw on the move.

This is the one he posted yesterday, discussing his concerns over Lance's accuracy:

Watch on YouTube

I've said previously to take Cohn's opinions with a grain of salt, but I think he's pretty frank in his assessments.

I'm just not that confident that Lance will iron out his mechanical issues. He's been working on them for the past year, and intensely for the past seven months or so. Yes, Josh Allen has become more accurate as a passer since entering the league, but he is the exception. There are dozens of guys who weren't very accurate coming out who never became accurate. Lance is young, inexperienced, and I believe he will put in the work. But I don't think it's a given he'll suddenly become an accurate downfield passer.

I'll add that Grant and the guy he's talking to address that it's early, and no one should freak out based on one OTA practice. But I'm from the school that prioritizes accuracy above almost everything else, and the difference between Lance and Fields in this area was pronounced.

[Jikkle]

Watch on YouTube

I'm in that camp of he's around where he should expected to be now.

Sounds like he has one glaring flaw in his mechanics which I'm optimistic he'll iron out. When that will happen is anybody's guess but as long as he's aware of it and gets proper coaching I'm confident he'll get it right because he sounds like he's that kind of guy that will work on it till it's fixed.

What's good to hear that he's doing well when it comes to the stuff on the move. Naturally you want him to develop into a polished pocket passer but what's going to make him special especially in this offense is his ability to throw on the move.

This is the one he posted yesterday, discussing his concerns over Lance's accuracy:

Watch on YouTube

I've said previously to take Cohn's opinions with a grain of salt, but I think he's pretty frank in his assessments.

I'm just not that confident that Lance will iron out his mechanical issues. He's been working on them for the past year, and intensely for the past seven months or so. Yes, Josh Allen has become more accurate as a passer since entering the league, but he is the exception. There are dozens of guys who weren't very accurate coming out who never became accurate. Lance is young, inexperienced, and I believe he will put in the work. But I don't think it's a given he'll suddenly become an accurate downfield passer.

I'll add that Grant and the guy he's talking to address that it's early, and no one should freak out based on one OTA practice. But I'm from the school that prioritizes accuracy above almost everything else, and the difference between Lance and Fields in this area was pronounced.

I'm more bullish on Lance being able to improve his accuracy because I think accuracy due to mechanical issues is correctable or at least improvable.

Inaccuracy due to struggling to read and process the field is something that typically lingers and I don't think he'll have the issue.

I'm also bullish on him because of his age and experience he has more room to grow as a QB than say if he was a 5 star recurit out of high school that had private coaching and was a 3 year starter.

And QBs beyond Josh Allen have improved accuracy it's just that Allen is a dramatic case of it happening. I mean Josh Allen was a 56 percent passer in college compared to Lance who was 67% in 2019 so it's not even that Lance is inaccurate you just want to see his sharper accuracy from him.

But Rodgers spent 3 years rebuilding his throwing motion and he had his all-time most accurate season last year. Brees grew into being a 70%+ passer and most QBs grow their accuracy from rookies till they hit around year 3.

[CrimsonCrew]

Yes, I don't mean to suggest guys don't improve their accuracy. Even very accurate QBs coming out continue to develop as pros, and also, probably more dramatically, improve their decision-making. What I meant to suggest is that we don't typically see inaccurate college passers become very accurate passers in the pros. And despite his completion percentage, Lance is not an accurate downfield thrower.

As I've said before, this is really my one and only concern about Lance (I'm also a bit worried about how he'll play under pressure initially, but I feel that way about every QB making the transition). I think he's got just about everything else he needs to be a successful NFL QB, so I'm hoping he can work this out over time. But it's a big concern in my book. Lack of accuracy has derailed the careers of numerous highly drafted QBs. And it's something he's been working on for a sustained period at this point, and from reports and what I've seen in terms of the pro days, he's still showing the same tendencies in terms of missing downfield.

[CrimsonCrew]

I wanted to add that arguably Garoppolo's biggest weakness is his poor downfield passing, and he's been really good in this system generally speaking. And he has weaknesses that I don't think Lance does. Obviously he doesn't have the mobility and threat to run, and he misses easy reads with some regularity (Lance does, too, but I'm more willing to forgive that in a young player). He also has a penchant for throwing incredibly dumb INTs that I don't think Lance will.

So in some ways, I see Lance as almost having a floor of Garoppolo with the running added in, which is pretty darn good. Though Jimmy is nails on the short- and mid-range stuff when he's at his best, and he has (or at least had) that lightning-quick release. If Lance isn't bringing deep accuracy, he'll have to be nearly flawless on the shorter stuff, and even then, I don't know that he will merit what we gave up to get him. If he can develop that along with the other elements of his game that need less substantial changes, he could be a generational talent. But I think it's a big if. Garoppolo is a stark example of a guy who has never come close to figuring out his own deep-ball accuracy.