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2023 Offseason

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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#181 » by thesack12 » Fri Apr 21, 2023 9:33 pm

CrimsonCrew wrote:
thesack12 wrote:I wouldn't be shocked if they traded Aiyuk. I wouldn't be happy about it either.

As mentioned cap reasons would be the most likely reasoning behind a trade. However, we can't forget that Kyle had Aiyuk in his doghouse for long stretch last season. While we still aren't sure on why Brandon got housed and it does seem like whatever it was has been resolved and put to bed. But to me Kyle seems like the type that won't easily let go of things like that. IDK, I'm probably just reading in between the lines a little too much, but the thought did cross my mind.

Due for an extension, I would think the best Aiyuk would fetch would be something like a late 2nd this year and a conditional 5th next year. But supposedly this isn't a great draft for WR's so maybe some team offers up a bigger package.

Whatever Aiyuk's status is moving forward, I don't think the Chris Conley signing has any bearing on it. Conley is purely a depth piece. He's had low production while playing on terrible teams for the past 4 seasons, and he's already on the wrong side of 30. There's probably a reason why he was available this late in free agency. They also sure didn't seem to specifically target him. They had Laquon Treadwell in for a workout a couple days before bringing in Conley for a looksie. So it seems like a throw something at the wall and see if it sticks type of signing, than a precursor to a bigger move involving a much more important player.

I don't dislike the Conley signing, as he came cheap and I think he could become a viable depth guy. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Conley didn't survive final cuts. Especially if the 9ers draft a WR.


Yeah, Aiyuk could certainly be a cap casualty. At some point, we've got to stop paying these guys top-of-market deals. Though the FO has been pretty ruthless about keeping the top guys and filling out the rest of the roster with rookie contracts and cheap depth. It seems like an effective way to fill out a roster, especially with cheap QBs, but I'm not sure how much longer it's sustainable even with cheap QBs.

But it's also feasible while we still have the cheap QBs to fit him onto the squad. Particularly if we move Lance before next season. I like Aiyuk. He is a good receiver who would likely look even better on a team that fed him the ball more. As was said above, I think he's a more complete pure WR than Deebo, though Deebo's flexibility is really unique. At the very least, I'd try to keep him this year. I don't think it would adversely impact his trade value all that much - teams will still give up premium picks for the privilege of re-signing an impact player - and it would not only help the team this year, but pressure Deebo to get into camp and grind a bit.

Agreed that it's hard to see Conley affecting this decision much at all. I was just repeating something I heard. They might be filling out the WR room in general a bit more in anticipation of entertaining Aiyuk trade offers, but it would be crazy to in any way rely on a guy like Conley to be a starter. But he's a guy who has been a solid #2 in the not-too-distant past, and we need some more camp bodies anyway.

Lots of interesting topics coming up these days, but almost certainly it will be a pretty quiet draft for the Niners. With the caveat that I expect the team to trade up several times, likely for guys who are perceived as pretty significant reaches....


Lol, I like how you are preparing yourself for one of the things you hate the most (*cough* Dante Pettis *cough*)

For me, I'm expecting to acquire a couple new holes in my wall when they waste a 3rd rounder on a RB for the third year in a row.... Seriously though, if they draft a RB with any pick I might need a search party sent to find my sanity.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#182 » by CrimsonCrew » Fri Apr 21, 2023 9:41 pm

Given that we can't rely on Mitchell to stay healthy at this point, I don't have a huge problem with a RB in the 5th or later. It's a deep draft at RB, and you can find good players late at the position as a general proposition. But if we take one in the third again, I'll lose it.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#183 » by thesack12 » Fri Apr 21, 2023 10:10 pm

CrimsonCrew wrote:I meant to mention this a week or two ago, but I think I did not. Apologies if I'm repeating myself. Lynch said some time ago that he really liked the draft process this year because they're kind of starting from the back and working their way up with no early picks. Did not give me a great feeling. My general theory on their drafting under Lynch has been that he and Kyle run the show in the early rounds before deferring more and more to the scouting team and position coaches.

It will not shock anyone on this board, but their hit rate in the later rounds is remarkable, while their hit rate in the first three rounds is frankly pretty shaky. They've had an awful lot of misses in the early rounds (1: S. Thomas, Foster, arguably McGlinchey, Kinlaw, arguably Lance; 2: arguably Witherspoon, Pettis; 3: Beathard, Moore, Hurd, Sermon, A. Thomas, jury still out on Davis-Price and Gray). My concern is that there will be less deferring to the scouting department this year, which could be bad news. We'll see. One more interesting thing to watch.


I don't know how the 49ers draft decision making is structured, but it is generally accepted in pretty much all drafts with several rounds in all sports, its the scouting team and sometimes position coaches input that drives a lot of the selections in later rounds.

As you alluded to with this regime the draft success in dramatically tilted to the later rounds.

I'm going to go ahead and say Davis Price was a bust pick, mostly because of position and the fact they were already short on picks last year. But other than that, I will count last year's class and Lance as incompletes.

So factoring out those guys, this regime has made 17 total "premium" selections (rounds 1-3). Of those they only have 4 legit hits (Aiyuk, Bosa, Deebo, Warner.) 1 solid pick with potential to become a legit hit (Banks). 1 half decent but largely disappointing pick (McGlinchey). 1 neutral, I guess pick (Witherspoon). 1 hasn't pushed the needle but could have been worse pick (Moore). 9 bonafide bust picks (S.Thomas, Foster, Beathard, Pettis, Hurd, Kinlaw, Sermon, A.Thomas, Price).

Can't pass completely fair judgement without conducting a similar exercise on several other teams for comparison stake, but on the surface it doesn't look good in those early rounds. That 2017 draft was especially hurtful since they got basically nothing from (2) 1's and (2) 3's that year while not having a 2nd. That year's draft class should of had a solid crop of talent starting to come into their own during the 2019 Super Bowl season, and as it turned out just having a tad more juice to inject to that team might have been enough to take home the Lombardi. Oh well, we can play the woulda coulda should game til the cows come home.

Anyways, if the top end brass has indeed been historically weighted their input the highest into the early picks and the scouting dept/position coaches input largely influencing the later picks, then yeah we should probably be apprehensive that Lynch has talked about taking the back to front approach this year since they aren't scheduled to go on the clock until pick #99.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#184 » by thesack12 » Fri Apr 21, 2023 10:24 pm

CrimsonCrew wrote:Given that we can't rely on Mitchell to stay healthy at this point, I don't have a huge problem with a RB in the 5th or later. It's a deep draft at RB, and you can find good players late at the position as a general proposition. But if we take one in the third again, I'll lose it.


If CMC and Mitchell go down, Jordan Mason and Price are still in town.

On top of that Kyle has well past proven he is capable of finding and developing the next Jordan Mason, Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida off the scrap heap.

So personally, I would have a problem with drafting yet another RB. Only way I could stomach it is they take a guy that has the talent to project as a + receiver/pass protector and/or a special teams ace. Even then they better take that guy in the 7th, lol.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#185 » by CrimsonCrew » Sun Apr 23, 2023 4:02 pm

thesack12 wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:Given that we can't rely on Mitchell to stay healthy at this point, I don't have a huge problem with a RB in the 5th or later. It's a deep draft at RB, and you can find good players late at the position as a general proposition. But if we take one in the third again, I'll lose it.


If CMC and Mitchell go down, Jordan Mason and Price are still in town.

On top of that Kyle has well past proven he is capable of finding and developing the next Jordan Mason, Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida off the scrap heap.

So personally, I would have a problem with drafting yet another RB. Only way I could stomach it is they take a guy that has the talent to project as a + receiver/pass protector and/or a special teams ace. Even then they better take that guy in the 7th, lol.


Yes, if they drafted a RB, I'd want a guy who excels catching the football, with an eye toward replacing CMC eventually. But again, how likely is a late-5th round guy to even make the team? If there's a good RB available there, much less with one of our four picks in the late-7th, I don't have a huge problem with that.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#186 » by thesack12 » Mon Apr 24, 2023 2:42 am

CrimsonCrew wrote:
thesack12 wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:Given that we can't rely on Mitchell to stay healthy at this point, I don't have a huge problem with a RB in the 5th or later. It's a deep draft at RB, and you can find good players late at the position as a general proposition. But if we take one in the third again, I'll lose it.


If CMC and Mitchell go down, Jordan Mason and Price are still in town.

On top of that Kyle has well past proven he is capable of finding and developing the next Jordan Mason, Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida off the scrap heap.

So personally, I would have a problem with drafting yet another RB. Only way I could stomach it is they take a guy that has the talent to project as a + receiver/pass protector and/or a special teams ace. Even then they better take that guy in the 7th, lol.


Yes, if they drafted a RB, I'd want a guy who excels catching the football, with an eye toward replacing CMC eventually. But again, how likely is a late-5th round guy to even make the team? If there's a good RB available there, much less with one of our four picks in the late-7th, I don't have a huge problem with that.


While you're correct that any 5th round pick has a hill to climb to make the team, you could argue that a drafted RB would have an even tougher time making the squad than a prospect at a lot of other positions. At absolute best, that guy would be 3rd on the depth chart, and RB is a position where only one of them will be on the field at a time (short of using CMC as a slot receiver). Also Jordan Mason's arrow is still firmly pointing up, so it would be difficult for a late round rookie to pass him for RB3.

Every OL postion, TE, LB, FS, CB are all positions of much greater concern and need depth moreso than getting RB insurance. Hell, even Kicker might need to be addressed because I'm not entirely sure that they are content with Gonzalez. Its certainly a crapshoot in trying to hit on guys with nothing but later round picks to plug into some of these holes. But that's where the quantity comes into play. I'd rather throw darts at the potential for higher reward in finding rotation caliber players in positions of need, as opposed to fishing for an RB4.

With taking Joe Williams in the 4th, Trey Sermon in the 3rd, Ty Davis Price in the 3rd I also have to question this regime's eye for drafting RB's. Granted them taking Eli Mitchell in the 6th was a very solid pick. Still those other 3 are massive misses. Joe Williams never played a down. Sermon was a bigtime bust and cut after 1 year. And Davis Price was seen as a huge reach at the time, and he's shown nothing to disprove that so far.

Will it be the end of the world if they draft another RB, no. Still considering the roster makeup, very undesirable breakout of available picks at their disposal, and Kyle's ability to get production from scrap heap RB's I just don't see the value in drafting RB's at this point.

All that said, if we are considering fullback to be an RB I could get behind them drafting a guy to groom as Juice's replacement. Juice is getting up there in age, and is starting to show signs of falling off. He's also extremely expensive relative to his positional value, he makes like 2x the next closest FB. Granted there aren't a lot of fullbacks out there, but that also plays into the low value of the position. Still, Kyle places a lot of emphasis on FB within his scheme and there really isn't anything behind Juice currently.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#187 » by CrimsonCrew » Mon Apr 24, 2023 5:56 pm

thesack12 wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
thesack12 wrote:
If CMC and Mitchell go down, Jordan Mason and Price are still in town.

On top of that Kyle has well past proven he is capable of finding and developing the next Jordan Mason, Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida off the scrap heap.

So personally, I would have a problem with drafting yet another RB. Only way I could stomach it is they take a guy that has the talent to project as a + receiver/pass protector and/or a special teams ace. Even then they better take that guy in the 7th, lol.


Yes, if they drafted a RB, I'd want a guy who excels catching the football, with an eye toward replacing CMC eventually. But again, how likely is a late-5th round guy to even make the team? If there's a good RB available there, much less with one of our four picks in the late-7th, I don't have a huge problem with that.


While you're correct that any 5th round pick has a hill to climb to make the team, you could argue that a drafted RB would have an even tougher time making the squad than a prospect at a lot of other positions. At absolute best, that guy would be 3rd on the depth chart, and RB is a position where only one of them will be on the field at a time (short of using CMC as a slot receiver). Also Jordan Mason's arrow is still firmly pointing up, so it would be difficult for a late round rookie to pass him for RB3.

Every OL postion, TE, LB, FS, CB are all positions of much greater concern and need depth moreso than getting RB insurance. Hell, even Kicker might need to be addressed because I'm not entirely sure that they are content with Gonzalez. Its certainly a crapshoot in trying to hit on guys with nothing but later round picks to plug into some of these holes. But that's where the quantity comes into play. I'd rather throw darts at the potential for higher reward in finding rotation caliber players in positions of need, as opposed to fishing for an RB4.

With taking Joe Williams in the 4th, Trey Sermon in the 3rd, Ty Davis Price in the 3rd I also have to question this regime's eye for drafting RB's. Granted them taking Eli Mitchell in the 6th was a very solid pick. Still those other 3 are massive misses. Joe Williams never played a down. Sermon was a bigtime bust and cut after 1 year. And Davis Price was seen as a huge reach at the time, and he's shown nothing to disprove that so far.

Will it be the end of the world if they draft another RB, no. Still considering the roster makeup, very undesirable breakout of available picks at their disposal, and Kyle's ability to get production from scrap heap RB's I just don't see the value in drafting RB's at this point.

All that said, if we are considering fullback to be an RB I could get behind them drafting a guy to groom as Juice's replacement. Juice is getting up there in age, and is starting to show signs of falling off. He's also extremely expensive relative to his positional value, he makes like 2x the next closest FB. Granted there aren't a lot of fullbacks out there, but that also plays into the low value of the position. Still, Kyle places a lot of emphasis on FB within his scheme and there really isn't anything behind Juice currently.


Yeah, no argument with any of that. CMC is really the only guy on the roster at present with proven receiving ability, so if they do add a RB, I'd want it to be one who fits that mold. But agreed it's a low-value position and almost certainly our deepest spot.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#188 » by CrimsonCrew » Mon Apr 24, 2023 8:44 pm

Not Niners news, but Rodgers is officially a Jet. Swap of firsts (13 and 15), a second (42), a 2024 second that becomes a first if Rodgers plays 65% of snaps this year, and some lower picks going back-and-forth.

Good for the Niners' chances in the NFC, as another perennial powerhouse likely takes a step back next year.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#189 » by CrimsonCrew » Wed Apr 26, 2023 11:18 pm

Also not Niner news, but Chase Young's fifth-year option was not picked up. That's wild. A lot of people had him as a better prospect than Bosa coming out, and in his rookie year, he looked like he might force that issue. He suffered a bad injury and hasn't looked the same since. Hope for his sake that he can put it all together. He was a guy who relied on his special athleticism, and it appears the injury may have adversely impacted that.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#190 » by thesack12 » Wed Apr 26, 2023 11:59 pm

CrimsonCrew wrote:Not Niners news, but Rodgers is officially a Jet. Swap of firsts (13 and 15), a second (42), a 2024 second that becomes a first if Rodgers plays 65% of snaps this year, and some lower picks going back-and-forth.

Good for the Niners' chances in the NFC, as another perennial powerhouse likely takes a step back next year.


Yup, it never hurts your feelings to see a truly elite QB leave the conference.

The NFC is pretty wide open. Philly, Dallas, and SF are currently looking like the clear top dawgs of the conference. With Philly and Dallas being in the same division, that only helps the 9ers.

On the flip side the 49ers QB position is currently far from stabilized, and the schedule is pretty tough. Got the normal division winners schedule + the NFC East and AFC North. Overall 9ers have 10/17 games against 2022 playoff teams: Seattle (twice), Philly, Dallas, NYG, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Jacksonville.

One thing in favor of San Francisco is overall the NFC west competition appears (on paper) to be much less stiff than it has been in recent years. LA has lit the match to start a firesale, and Arizona seems to entering a full fledged rebuild phase.

One thng not in favor of Frisco is, unlike Philly, who has two 1's (one of them being a top 10 pick) the Niners don't figure to add any high end draft talent to their team. Of note however is Philly doesn't have any 4ths, 5ths, or 6ths. Dallas has 1 pick in each round.

In conclusion, the pieces are in place for the 9ers to come out of the NFC but they are going to have to navigate some choppy waters and earn it.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#191 » by CrimsonCrew » Fri May 12, 2023 10:17 pm

First report of the season in from rookie minicamp. Silly to read much of anything into this, but for those who are starved for any content, as I am:

https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/the-good-and-not-so-good-from-rookie-minicamp
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#192 » by thesack12 » Sun May 14, 2023 3:33 pm

CrimsonCrew wrote:First report of the season in from rookie minicamp. Silly to read much of anything into this, but for those who are starved for any content, as I am:

https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/the-good-and-not-so-good-from-rookie-minicamp


Obviously way, way too early to put much stock into any of this.

However, the blurb on UDFA RB Khalan Laborn was especially interesting to me. As we have discussed frequently, outside of CMC of course, receiving chops is something that is missing from the RB room. If Laborn can develop solidly into that facet of the position, Davis-Prices' days of being on the team might be numbered. Price is just so unremarkable at everything. Price was easily the least talented RB on the roster last year. Going into this year, he might only be more talented than the other UDFA, Ronald Awatt. Regardless Price is thoroughly replaceable.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#193 » by thesack12 » Mon May 15, 2023 1:26 pm

Schedule is out, here are a few of my thoughts about it.

1) Week 9 bye is pretty much the preferred slot going into the season.
2) 10 games against teams that made the playoffs last year. Not the hardest schedule, but definitely not a light one either.
3) 2 Thursday night games can be tough, but if you can keep your health and get W's in them the ensuing "mini bye" is nice
4) Game on both Thanksgiving & Christmas is kinda tough for the organization as it relates to family time.
5) 9ers will travel the 2nd most miles in the NFL. Seattle slightly edged them out. Having the NFC East & AFC north will do that
6) 5 prime time games, so the team will get a large share of spotlight
7) NFCCG rematch on Dec 3 @ Philly. Hopefully the 9ers will have a QB who can actually throw a football for that one.
8) Don't have more than a 2 game stretch of consecutive road games, but they do have a 3 game span of home games weeks 3-5
9) No international game is nice. Mexico isn't bad, but those European ones are pretty tough travel/time/body clock wise
10) Was selfishly hoping the Bengals game would be @ Cincy. From Indy, would be less than a 2 hour drive for me to go that one.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#194 » by CrimsonCrew » Mon May 15, 2023 8:41 pm

Niners are the only playoff team from last year that will have to play twice on Thursday.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#195 » by CrimsonCrew » Tue May 16, 2023 10:17 pm

Interesting observation about the Niners and the interior OL. Although they have kind of spurned the most elite athletes at other positions, they have snapped up a bunch of guys with elite measurables who project to roles on the interior OL. There is a common thread of very short arms (none even at 33"), but all the other measurables are quite strong for Nick Zackelj (9.85 RAS), Joey Fisher (9.66 RAS), Jason Poe (RAS 9.45) and Ilm Manning (7.95 RAS). Those guys account for three of the top-75 or so athletic scores out of 1,421 OGs.

And honestly, I'm not sure why Manning's is as low as it is relative to the others, other than his very small size for the position. His raw numbers are very similar to Zakelj's, other than a slower three-cone and faster 40.

Scores and breakdowns can be found here:

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#196 » by thesack12 » Wed May 17, 2023 1:47 am

CrimsonCrew wrote:Interesting observation about the Niners and the interior OL. Although they have kind of spurned the most elite athletes at other positions, they have snapped up a bunch of guys with elite measurables who project to roles on the interior OL. There is a common thread of very short arms (none even at 33"), but all the other measurables are quite strong for Nick Zackelj (9.85 RAS), Joey Fisher (9.66 RAS), Jason Poe (RAS 9.45) and Ilm Manning (7.95 RAS). Those guys account for three of the top-75 or so athletic scores out of 1,421 OGs.

And honestly, I'm not sure why Manning's is as low as it is relative to the others, other than his very small size for the position. His raw numbers are very similar to Zakelj's, other than a slower three-cone and faster 40.

Scores and breakdowns can be found here:

Zakelj -
Read on Twitter

Fisher -
Read on Twitter

Poe -
Read on Twitter

Manning -
Read on Twitter


Yeah, they have a collection of unheralded yet intriguing prospects for the O-line.

With only later round picks, its possible they didn't see much separation between what they already had in house and would be able to bring in as UDFA's as opposed to what was available on the draft board. Might be why they didn't draft any O-Lineman

Odds are there probably isn't much substance in that group, but if even one of those guys can develop into a rotation guy it will help tremendously. We already seen Poe impress in camp last year, maybe he's ready and capable of stepping into a depth role after spending last year on the taxi squad.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#197 » by CrimsonCrew » Wed May 17, 2023 4:50 pm

thesack12 wrote:Yeah, they have a collection of unheralded yet intriguing prospects for the O-line.

With only later round picks, its possible they didn't see much separation between what they already had in house and would be able to bring in as UDFA's as opposed to what was available on the draft board. Might be why they didn't draft any O-Lineman

Odds are there probably isn't much substance in that group, but if even one of those guys can develop into a rotation guy it will help tremendously. We already seen Poe impress in camp last year, maybe he's ready and capable of stepping into a depth role after spending last year on the taxi squad.


I have a couple problems with that rationale. First and foremost, those guys all profile at guard or center. Maybe you could get a game or two out of them at tackle, but 32" arms are a problem outside. Even very polished guys who played at the top levels of competition almost universally move inside with arm length like that. Second, two of those guys weren't on the roster at all until after the draft.

I don't think you can fairly look at the OL as one entity. Despite having some real question marks, I feel pretty good about our starters and depth at the interior spots. Banks and Burford both need to continue to develop, especially Burford, but I see no reason why he won't. And behind them we have a bunch of young, intriguing, physically gifted guys fighting for a couple roster spots. Granted the odds of any of those guys making it even as solid backups in the league are fairly slim.

The situation at OT is totally different. We have one elite player (Williams) and one totally unproven starter (McKivitz) backed up by a young player who hasn't played much (Moore) and a retread vet who hasn't been all that good (Pryor). We're super thin, and I don't see an obvious guy we're grooming to replace Williams on the roster.

For some reason I'm only just realizing/remembering that it was actually Moore, not McKivitz, who got most of the replacement snaps last year (185 to 68 on offense; McKivitz got injured during his first game as the starter), and he wasn't bad in those snaps (66 PFF grade). So maybe the team has some real faith in him. But that is such a small sample size it's hard to draw any real conclusions. Pryor had a 45 PFF grade in almost 600 snaps last year, so relying on him for anything at all is a dicey proposition.

In terms of the draft I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but we passed on Wanya Morris (at least we passed on him for Brown instead of for the K and backup TE), Nick Saldiveri, Blake Freeland, Dawand Jones, and Carter Warren, all of whom went within 20 picks of us taking Moody and Latu. Those guys run the gamut in terms of what they bring to the table. Jones may not be a scheme or personality fit, but he's a mountain of a man with rare athleticism at his size (granted his size alone is rare) who some had going in the first round. Freeland is an athletic freak and very effective run blocker with potential to develop as a pass blocker. Saldiveri might have to move inside (though his arms are basically the same length as Moore's), but he's a good athlete with a lot of experience. Warren is a long college LT with tons of experience. Morris is a long, athletic guy who needs refinement but has plenty of upside.

I can't guarantee any one of those guys will hit, but there were lots of options that brought different things to the table and offered good value at the position, and I think it was short-sighted to pass on all of them. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see the team trade up and/or reach for a tackle next year. No guarantee we could have avoided that this year, but at least we could have taken a shot at it.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#198 » by CrimsonCrew » Wed May 17, 2023 5:56 pm

To add to the above, in terms of OT depth and developmental players, they have Alfredo Gutierrez, who is huge, but he's never shown anything to suggest he can be any sort of answer at the position and would almost certainly be long gone but for the international player exemption.

Leroy Watson is an interesting developmental guy. He's a converted TE they added last year who got some press at the rookie mini camp for coming in looking bulked up to OT size. He's a little over 6'4.5" with 35-inch arms, so if his weight is 300+, he's got the size and length. His workout numbers were good for a tackle, but he was a 270-pound TE at the time. I'm assuming those have gotten worse with the 30-odd pounds he's added. And, you know, he hasn't really played the position. Definitely a guy worth keeping around through camp to see if he can surprise, but it would also be silly to put any faith in him.

To my knowledge, they don't have any other backup OL on the roster with even 33" arms, which is pretty close to a do-or-die number for OTs in the league, with very few starting OTs coming in below that number.

Unless they think that Zakelj or Fisher can play OT with those short arms, or would consider kicking Burford outside, they effectively have six OTs on the 90-man roster, and two are the huge projects described above.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#199 » by thesack12 » Thu May 18, 2023 1:00 am

RT and OT depth certainly have qustions. All teams have holes on their roster, there is no such thing as a concern proof roster. As I have alluded to, considering the allotment of draft picks, I guess I just had different expectations of how those holes could be plugged, at least to what degree anyways.

I always thought that kicking Burford to the outside is an available option. He has the length and athleticism to play tackle and has plenty of college experience on the outside. Although he might be a tad light in mass.

Don't know if he'd be ready for a full time switch to RT, but if he can moonlight out there it will help the overall depth. Feliciano seems solid enough to plug into RG if/when Burford plays RT. Also as discussed the prospect collection and developmental talent is more promising with the interior guys, so there is more potential for viable depth to develop there.

At the end of the day considering we are trying to replace Mike McGlinchey, I personally don't see a huge concern at RT. Although depth at tackle is a different animal. Mike was improved last season, but he was still the weak link of the O-line the majority of the time. The bar at RT is not all that high. It shouldn't be a daunting task for McKivitz to at least come close to providing the caliber of play that we've been used to at RT for the last handful of years. Honestly even living through the growing pains of potentially kicking Burford out there, probably wouldn't suffer a huge dropoff at the position. All that said, McKivitz (or even Burford) could flame out spectacularly, and teams will feast attacking the right side of the line. Still, replacing Mike McGlinchey shouldn't be a scary proposition, we aren't trying to replace Big Trent.... yet.

Speaking of trying to replace Williams, now that the team will (finally) have their full allotment of draft picks back it makes more sense to try and find that replacement after the 2023 draft. Not that you wouldn't want to have a potential heir apparent already in house. But again if we were trying to find that guy, the potential to get him in this past draft was not great. Trent is starting to get up there in age and there was a little bit of chatter he might retire after the NFCCG. However he's still an legitimately elite LT and has 3 more very lucrative years left on his contract. The retirement chatter was seemingly made out of pure emotion in the moment of losing the NFCCG in the fashion they did. So assuming health *crosses fingers* I think we still safely have a year or two until we need to worry about replacing him.

Not so much chatter of it on this board, moreso the twitterverse, but I find it amusing that some 49er fans are trying to claim that this regime doesn't value the OL and doesn't invest in it. Yet they used a 1st rounder on McGlinchey, used a 2nd rounder on Banks, traded multiple picks for Trent Williams, gave Williams a market setting contract extension, and gave out big contracts to 3 different centers (Richburg, Mack, Brendel), traded for Laken Tomlinson then gave him a healthy extension the following year.
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Re: 2023 Offseason 

Post#200 » by CrimsonCrew » Thu May 18, 2023 5:35 pm

thesack12 wrote:RT and OT depth certainly have qustions. All teams have holes on their roster, there is no such thing as a concern proof roster. As I have alluded to, considering the allotment of draft picks, I guess I just had different expectations of how those holes could be plugged, at least to what degree anyways.

I always thought that kicking Burford to the outside is an available option. He has the length and athleticism to play tackle and has plenty of college experience on the outside. Although he might be a tad light in mass.

Don't know if he'd be ready for a full time switch to RT, but if he can moonlight out there it will help the overall depth. Feliciano seems solid enough to plug into RG if/when Burford plays RT. Also as discussed the prospect collection and developmental talent is more promising with the interior guys, so there is more potential for viable depth to develop there.

At the end of the day considering we are trying to replace Mike McGlinchey, I personally don't see a huge concern at RT. Although depth at tackle is a different animal. Mike was improved last season, but he was still the weak link of the O-line the majority of the time. The bar at RT is not all that high. It shouldn't be a daunting task for McKivitz to at least come close to providing the caliber of play that we've been used to at RT for the last handful of years. Honestly even living through the growing pains of potentially kicking Burford out there, probably wouldn't suffer a huge dropoff at the position. All that said, McKivitz (or even Burford) could flame out spectacularly, and teams will feast attacking the right side of the line. Still, replacing Mike McGlinchey shouldn't be a scary proposition, we aren't trying to replace Big Trent.... yet.

Speaking of trying to replace Williams, now that the team will (finally) have their full allotment of draft picks back it makes more sense to try and find that replacement after the 2023 draft. Not that you wouldn't want to have a potential heir apparent already in house. But again if we were trying to find that guy, the potential to get him in this past draft was not great. Trent is starting to get up there in age and there was a little bit of chatter he might retire after the NFCCG. However he's still an legitimately elite LT and has 3 more very lucrative years left on his contract. The retirement chatter was seemingly made out of pure emotion in the moment of losing the NFCCG in the fashion they did. So assuming health *crosses fingers* I think we still safely have a year or two until we need to worry about replacing him.

Not so much chatter of it on this board, moreso the twitterverse, but I find it amusing that some 49er fans are trying to claim that this regime doesn't value the OL and doesn't invest in it. Yet they used a 1st rounder on McGlinchey, used a 2nd rounder on Banks, traded multiple picks for Trent Williams, gave Williams a market setting contract extension, and gave out big contracts to 3 different centers (Richburg, Mack, Brendel), traded for Laken Tomlinson then gave him a healthy extension the following year.


I had modest expectations for acquiring impact players this year, but this was a pretty deep draft given all the Covid deferments, and the third round was a spot where we could have added guys who might have the talent to start in the near future. When you have so much money locked up in star players, it becomes even more important to flesh out your depth with cheap players through the draft. If you're also trading away top picks, those later-round picks become even more important.

This FO hates playing rookies, so I viewed this year as a good time to get some developmental guys with starter potential down the road at positions future need. Obviously the FO disagreed with my view and took two guys at the end of the third round who will likely see the field this year, but who don't really have long-term upside that they might have found at other positions. I'm struggling to find good information on wins above replacement for kickers, but for almost everyone except Justin Tucker, it's a pretty volatile position from year to year. And I'm just pretty skeptical a) that Latu will be any good, and b) that he wouldn't have been available much later in the draft.

Every draft is different, and what looks like value at a position going in can change pretty dramatically during the course of the draft. Going into the draft, for instance, I thought we'd have some intriguing options to choose from at DE and TE. That didn't really happen. There was a run on both positions. Guys like Yaya Diaby and Byron Young went higher than expected, and the only DE I liked at 99 or 101 was Isaiah McGuire. I would still have strongly considered him, but I understand not doing so, and he fell almost another full round after we passed on him.

TE was completely picked over and there simply wasn't value at the position in the late third. I thought there was a chance Brenton Strange, Luke Schoonmaker, or Tucker Kraft would have been there, and would have strongly considered both, but they all went much higher. Hell, I thought there was a chance Sam La Porta might be there and he went with the third pick in the second. Given that run on the position, I would have passed on TE in the third and come back to it in the 5th or 6th. That's what literally every team except the Niners did, as we picked Latu and then no one else picked a TE for a round-and-a-half. Now, it's always possible that Latu was the next-most-talented guy in most other teams' views and he wouldn't have made it to the 5th, but I don't personally believe that. A full quarter of the league had drafted a TE by that time, so the pool of teams likely to take a TE was dwindling. Instead of adjusting to the fluid draft, we ended the run at a position. It's just bad process.

By contrast, and somewhat surprisingly, positions like OT and CB had a surprising number of talented players left. There was good value to be had there, as evidenced in part by the number of guys at those positions who flew off the board after we picked (8 of the 19 players taken after Latu played OT of CB, four of each, and that doesn't include Braeden Daniels who is listed as a guard on about 50% of sites).

Some of the pain of this is not as acute because we're talking about only later picks, and this FO has proven to be extremely adept at identifying late-round guys who fit their scheme and coaching them up. It's hard to argue they aren't one of if not the best team in the league at doing so at this point, though admittedly I don't have a great sense of other teams' track records in this area. I think Luter is an intriguing guy, and might be as good or better than some of those CBs who went in the early 4th. I also stand by the decision to wait at DE and take Beal, who I think could be a potential replacement for Ebukam as an undersized guy tools guy who is surprisingly stout against the run and can bring some pass-rushing upside. The LBs seem like intriguing players at positions of need. But this draft left me wanting more in terms of addressing anticipated holes at OT and, to a lesser degree, WR.

And yes, I know you can't address every position in every draft. If we had taken an OT instead of Latu in the third, then took Latu in the 5th, we would have passed on Luter. Then I wouldn't feel good about CB. So I get that argument. But OT depth is a glaring hole, and there was some talent there.

I think there is a fair possibility - especially if we win the SB - that Williams retires after this season. It's a tough game on those big dudes, and he's had other health issues on top of it. He sounds like he's starting to seriously consider hanging them up. We need to be building toward that now. You aren't terribly likely to hit on a LT in the third round or later, but you sure as hell aren't going to hit on anything if you don't take a chance on it. I agree that this FO does value OL, though they don't place a high priority on OGs, seemingly. I'm fine with that. On the OL, unless you can find a true difference maker like Williams, you're better off having five solid guys than a great guy, three good guys, and a liability. But part of my thinking on this FO and a looming OT issue is picturing them trading a first and second round pick, for instance, to move up for an OT next year. I'd prefer to avoid that.

Finally, I think you're underestimating McGlinchey. McGlinchey gets a really bad rap because when he loses, he tends to lose spectacularly (see the Parsons highlight, though to be fair, Parsons also destroyed Kittle on that rep) and in important moments. But he's a really good run blocker and better as a pass blocker than he gets credit for. Despite that, as said previously, I'm fine rolling with McKivitz if the FO has faith in him. It's what is behind him that worries me. And as much as kicking Burford out is a possibility, it's probably not a great idea to weaken two positions along the OL. I had forgotten until yesterday about Moore basically getting two full starts last year and playing alright, so hopefully that wasn't just a fluke, but I don't see an heir apparent to Trent on this roster, and that worries me.

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