The Trey Lance thread

CrimsonCrew · Post #21 » by **CrimsonCrew** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:11 pm

Kurt Warner with a good breakdown of some of Lance's strengths and weaknesses.

Strong points here:

And weaknesses here:

Not surprisingly, most of the negatives pertain to accuracy. The good news is that Lance appears to make the right reads more often than not. If he can correct the accuracy, the sky really is the limit for the kid.

Not to harp on it or beat a dead horse, but it's an interesting contrast to the breakdown of Fields, who would at times make the wrong read, but then squeeze the ball into a tight window. The debate between those two really comes down to which is easier to correct: field vision/processing or accuracy. Honestly both can be pretty difficult to make dramatic improvements in, but for my money, working with a guy on improving his reads and processing is more predictable, especially when you've had him in a system for a few years. That said, plenty of guys - like Garoppolo and Kaepernick, in recent Niner history - never really get that piece.

CrimsonCrew · Post #22 » by **CrimsonCrew** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:15 pm

One thing I was thinking about that was mentioned in the leadup to the draft, but perhaps understated - and may show less evolution in Shanahan's thinking than some are suggesting - is that of the three guys we were considering, Lance played under center by far the most. He was under center about 1/3 of the time, while the other two spent less than 5% of their snaps under center (and for Fields, a disproportionate number of those were in short yardage when he ended up sneaking it). Fields is more accustomed to turning his back to the defense, something that came up when Shanahan picked Beathard. I just hope it's not something that Shanahan has again placed too much stock in.

Jikkle · Post #23 » by **Jikkle** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:43 pm

Lance was always my pick so I'm stoked that's who the 9ers went with though as I've said in the past I would've been excited if Fields was the pick as well it's just that I believe Lance's ceiling is higher.

I understand it's risky but because Lance has A+ intangibles I believe he can reach that ceiling. By all accounts he's a hard worker but more importantly it seems like he knows how to spend his time. Kaepernick was a hard worker as well but he was spending time being a better runner not a better QB.

The level of competition doesn't bother me because I feel you have to look at it two ways. Did he dominate? I'd say he did and he was clearly the best player on the field every game he played. The other is the physical tools are NFL elite, by all accounts he can handle the mental aspect, and the intangibles are there so he has all the tools in the toolbox to be an elite NFL player you just need to coach it up and polish the rough spots.

Accuracy is an issue but it seems it's a mechanical issue which is fixable. The kind of inaccuracy that I don't think is as fixable is when it stems from processing issues which I don't see with Lance. His accuracy issues tend to be a little overrated anyways. Not that they aren't a problem but he still had a 67 completion percentage so it's not like he was in the 50s like Josh Allen was in college.

Overall can't wait to see what he can do whether it's this season or the next.

GS Warriors 1 · Post #24 » by **GS Warriors 1** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:47 pm

My QB3 and a great fit for Shanahan's offense. I think the arm talent is special, probably one of the best in the last 3 drafts. The 1 game in 2020 had some concerns but again, that's just 1 game. The 2019 tape as a 19 year old was special. He just doesn't make many mistake throws, which shows why he had 0 INT in 2019. Albeit, he's not playing against the best talent, but he isn't playing with the best either. Maybe the best in FCS, but compared to good power conference teams, not that close. I think that's another thing that intrigues the 49ers. Let's see this guy with Kittle, Aiyuk, and Samuel, possibly another piece in Day 2. Draft talking heads like to do a next year preview right after the draft ends, and Lance was pretty much seen as a top 3 QB prospect last year. I agree with Kyle that if they had full 2020 season at NDSU, it's possible that he may have been the #2 pick.

I think the Pro Day is what truly sealed it. NDSU already released a couple more videos of Lynch/Shanahan at their Pro Day practically drooling lol. I thought it was strange at the time that NDSU didn't release more video of the Pro Day compared to OSU/Justin Fields. I think the 49ers clearly told them something. He was already the favorite in their eyes to be the pick. They really dug in back in January in this process and found their guy. Exciting.

wco81 · Post #25 » by **wco81** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:28 pm

Kyle said they did thing about the fact that he had so few pass attempts in his college career and didn't play in 2020 except one game. But over all the film he watched, he tallied 180 pluses, if I heard him right?

My guess is, Kyle isn't going to put in a lot of read-option plays or pistol formations like Roman did with Kaepernick (and I don't know if Roman does that for Lamar with the Ravens either).

He might call more boot run action, with the TE dragging along with him but he's not going to go away from the horizontal actions, like the jet sweep and such.

And I'd be surprised if he encourages Trey to do the "off schedule" or "second reaction" plays where he's scrambling and trying to find chunk plays like Mahomes. Kyle is too much in love with his play design to want QBs to freelance off them instead of executing what he wants.

Plus, I haven't heard that he has the kind of arm talent Mahomes has, especially to make rocket passes on the money on the run.

Scoots1994 · Post #26 » by **Scoots1994** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:09 pm

My order was Fields, Lance, Jones ... but I will admit that the epilepsy news pushed Fields down to being juuuuuust above Lance. Lance on potential is clearly at the top of those 3, but Fields delivered against really tough defenses at the top level of college football. The fact that Fields almost made it to 12 is pretty annoying ... it wouldn't have cost much to move up to 11 and certainly less than 2 1st round picks.

Now we wait and watch, and hope those 1st round picks are really late in the first and that Jimmy plays so well we can trade him away for one of those 1sts back.

thesack12 · Post #27 » by **thesack12** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:31 pm

Read on Twitter

CrimsonCrew · Post #28 » by **CrimsonCrew** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:49 pm

CrimsonCrew wrote:One thing I was thinking about that was mentioned in the leadup to the draft, but perhaps understated - and may show less evolution in Shanahan's thinking than some are suggesting - is that of the three guys we were considering, Lance played under center by far the most. He was under center about 1/3 of the time, while the other two spent less than 5% of their snaps under center (and for Fields, a disproportionate number of those were in short yardage when he ended up sneaking it). Fields is more accustomed to turning his back to the defense, something that came up when Shanahan picked Beathard. I just hope it's not something that Shanahan has again placed too much stock in.

Having mulled this a bit more, I may actually be swinging back in the opposite direction. While executing a fake handoff may not be that hard (though tell Peyton Manning that...), turning your back to the defense and then making a read and delivering a throw quickly probably is. And if you process relatively slowly out of the shotgun, which is really an ideal situation for reading the defense and processing, then it's reasonable to think that you could struggle running the play action game from under center, at least early on.

Again, I personally feel that this sort of thing can be taught/learned, and probably more easily than good NFL-level accuracy, but it's something to consider.

Pattersonca65 · Post #29 » by **Pattersonca65** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:16 pm

I may have posted this before, but I will post again as the 49ers have drafted Lance. Walterfootball is my favorite source. They don't list accuracy as a big issue for Lance. Their big issue as they see it for Lance is locking onto his primary read and running when the first option is not open. They state Lance has to get through his progressions quicker. This makes sense given his inexperience. I really more than ever want JImmy G back this coming season with Lance. Lance is going to need more time and experience before starting

Trey Lance Scouting Report
By Charlie Campbell

Strengths:
Tremendous skill set
Powerful arm
Can fire fastballs into tight windows
Arm strength to challenge defenses downfield
Throws a good deep ball
Impressive deep-ball precision
Aggressive to push the ball downfield
Throws well in the short, quick passing game
Leads receivers downfield for more yards after the catch
Accurate
Poise
Stays calm with rush closing around him
Keeps his eyes downfield despite rush closing in on him
Good athlete
Mobility
Uses his feet to buy time
Strong build makes him tough to sack, tackle
Keeps his eyes downfield while scrambling
Hard-charging downhill runner
Will lower his shoulder and run over tacklers
Dynamic runner
True dual-threat quarterback
Can throw off platform
Good speed for a quarterback
Avoids turnovers overall
Upside

Weaknesses:
Raw
Lacks experience
Field vision
Locks on to primary read
Takes off running when first read is covered
Slow to work through progressions
Has to speed up the process
Needs to get comfortable throwing into tight windows

Summary: North Dakota State has dominated the FCS, ripping off a string of National Championships. The Bison have produced a lot of good NFL talent, including Philadelphia Eagles franchise quarterback Carson Wentz, and Lance could continue that tradition in the 2021 NFL Draft. As a redshirt freshman in 2019, Lance led the Bison to an undefeated season and another National Championship. He produced a huge year, completing 67 percent of his passes for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns - with zero interceptions. He also ran for 1,100 yards and picked up 14 rushing touchdowns - his rushing yardage was actually much larger, but college football deducts sack yardage from a quarterback's rushing totals.

North Dakota State played only one game in 2020 due to COVID-19 limitations, and Lance looked rusty against Central Arkansas, but he also flashed his big-time skill set. Lance completed 15-of-30 passes in 2020 for 149 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He also turned 15 carries into 143 yards and two touchdowns.

From a skill set perspective, Lance fits in with other recent first-round prospects. His size, arm strength, running ability, and big-play potential are in line with other recent first-round picks such as Pat Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen and Jordan Love.

As a passer, Lance definitely has next-level ability. He has a strong arm capable of making all the throws for the pro level. Lance shows the ability to fire fastballs to the sideline and has no problem airing out deep balls. Overall, Lance has good accuracy, and his deep-ball precision is very impressive. He consistently lofts passes downfield to lead his receivers over the top of coverage. Lance also shows the ability to function in the quick passing game in the short part of the field, firing some bullets to move the ball.

One of Lance's impressive traits from 2019, especially for such a young player, was his poise. Lance is very calm in the pocket, and when rush is closing around him, it seems to be a non-factor to him. He will use his legs to buy time and does a nice job of keeping his eyes downfield. When he can't dodge tacklers, he can rely on his big frame to help him shake defenders free. Lance displayed amazing pocket presence as a redshirt freshman.

The poise plays into Lance making good decisions and protecting the football. He had some breaks go his way in 2019, and he would have thrown some interceptions if he had made some of the same throws in the NFL, or at a higher level of college football, but overall, he does a nice job of placing his passes where his receivers can make a play and is not reckless with the football.

The mobility factors into Lance being a dangerous threat on the ground. His running ability jumps off the screen. Lance is a hard-charging runner who shows quickness and a burst to hit the hole, plus he is a load to tackle. Lance regularly would lower a shoulder and flat out run over defenders. He could be a running dual threat quarterback at the next level. As a pro, Lance should run less than he does in college, and that is something that will have to be coached out of him to reduce his risk of injury.

Lance is a very young player, playing just one game as a redshirt sophomore in 2020, so it isn't surprising that he has some raw elements to his game and needs development. The most pressing issue to address is field vision. Lance has issues seeing the field, as he can lock onto his primary read, take off running when his first read is covered, and be slow to look off and work through his progressions. Lance has to speed up the process for looking through his potential targets in the NFL. At North Dakota State, Lance had receivers running wide open a lot as well. For the next level, he will need to get more comfortable throwing into tight windows. He flashes that ability, but given his level of competition, tight-window comfort is something that will probably need to work on at the pro level.

Lance has the talent to be a good NFL starter, but given his lack of playing time and development, his pro team will need to be patient in order to not waste the raw talent that Lance possesses.

Player Comparison: Josh Allen. Lance has a unique style of play and is a tough player to compare. He reminds evaluators of Josh Allen at times, but Lance doesn't have Allen's size. Lance is like a shorter version of Allen in that they have similar styles of play and are coming to the NFL from a lower level of collegiate competition. If Lance pans out in the NFL, I could see him being a quarterback similar to Allen.

thesack12 · Post #30 » by **thesack12** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:59 pm

https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-draft-trey-lance-won-t-run-40-at-pro-day-leaning-on-tape-to-show-speed

Lance later learned the GPS tracker he was wearing clocked him at 21.54 mph on that run, his fastest speed of the season. It would have ranked 12th in the NFL last season among ball-carriers and tops among quarterbacks, according to Next Gen Stats. It's all the more impressive considering he was running diagonally across the field and toward the sideline while looking for the right time to turn the corner.

It wasn't just a straight sprint to the end zone, which could only mean one thing.

"That I've got more in the tank for you," Lance said with a laugh during a recent phone interview.

Obviously foot speed isn't near the top of the list of priorities you want your QB to excel at, but it definitely doesn't hurt to have a guy with a stout physique and can turn on the jets.

Samurai · Post #31 » by **Samurai** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:33 pm

thesack12 wrote:https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-draft-trey-lance-won-t-run-40-at-pro-day-leaning-on-tape-to-show-speed

Lance later learned the GPS tracker he was wearing clocked him at 21.54 mph on that run, his fastest speed of the season. It would have ranked 12th in the NFL last season among ball-carriers and tops among quarterbacks, according to Next Gen Stats. It's all the more impressive considering he was running diagonally across the field and toward the sideline while looking for the right time to turn the corner.

It wasn't just a straight sprint to the end zone, which could only mean one thing.

"That I've got more in the tank for you," Lance said with a laugh during a recent phone interview.

Obviously foot speed isn't near the top of the list of priorities you want your QB to excel at, but it definitely doesn't hurt to have a guy with a stout physique and can turn on the jets.

Lance's height, weight and 40 time is very similar to Kaepernick. And while Kap didn't have the GOAT 40 time, with a football in his arm and in full pads he had enough speed to run away from defenders. If Lance can also run fast enough to do the same, that will be plenty fast enough to be a legit threat for any defensive coordinator and for Shanahan to scheme up some interesting plays.

clyde21 · Post #32 » by **clyde21** » Sat May 1, 2021 1:05 am

what does Pozz think about this where the heck is he

Dodub · Post #33 » by **Dodub** » Sat May 1, 2021 1:18 am

Haven’t seen Pozz in more than a year

CrimsonCrew · Post #34 » by **CrimsonCrew** » Sat May 1, 2021 1:58 am

Dodub wrote:Haven’t seen Pozz in more than a year

Figured you guys might know what was up with him. The FFL still going? Anyone know what's up? I know his health hasn't been the best.

Dodub · Post #35 » by **Dodub** » Sat May 1, 2021 3:37 am

CrimsonCrew wrote:
Dodub wrote:Haven’t seen Pozz in more than a year

Figured you guys might know what was up with him. The FFL still going? Anyone know what's up? I know his health hasn't been the best.

I’ve been wondering the same. I haven’t done the fantasy football league in many many years.

CrimsonCrew · Post #36 » by **CrimsonCrew** » Sat May 1, 2021 4:26 am

Dodub wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
Dodub wrote:Haven’t seen Pozz in more than a year

Figured you guys might know what was up with him. The FFL still going? Anyone know what's up? I know his health hasn't been the best.

I’ve been wondering the same. I haven’t done the fantasy football league in many many years.

I figured you and Clyde were two of the guys more likely to have had some contact with him. Lots of folks have dropped off over the years, but Pozz disappeared pretty suddenly and without any notice, and with the health stuff, I've been hoping all is okay. Either of you have contact for some of the old timers who might have had contact with him?

clyde21 · Post #37 » by **clyde21** » Sat May 1, 2021 6:01 am

if Sharks is still going (i left a few years ago) then maybe imac or ray or ninermind would know, other than that haven't heard anything

I_am_1z · Post #38 » by **I_am_1z** » Sat May 1, 2021 5:23 pm

Does anyone have proof of Trey Lances powerful arm? I still think Justin Fields had the best arm strength, so I'm wondering why Zach Wilson and Trey Lance are regarded as stronger...

thesack12 · Post #39 » by **thesack12** » Sat May 1, 2021 6:55 pm

I_am_1z wrote:Does anyone have proof of Trey Lances powerful arm? I still think Justin Fields had the best arm strength, so I'm wondering why Zach Wilson and Trey Lance are regarded as stronger...

Depends on what qualifies as "proof" for you

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-superlatives-quarterbacks-trevor-lawrence-justin-fields-trey-lance-mac-jones

The 2021 quarterback class is hands down the single best PFF has ever scouted in its seven years of grading college football. That means these superlatives are quite literally the best of the best.

Strongest Arm: Trey Lance

Not only does Lance have easy juice on the ball already, but there’s also reason to think he could get even stronger because he is the youngest quarterback in the draft. Even in only one season of play, Lance still has throws all over his tape that make you say “wow” with the velocity he puts on them.

CrimsonCrew · Post #40 » by **CrimsonCrew** » Sun May 2, 2021 2:56 am

thesack12 wrote:
I_am_1z wrote:Does anyone have proof of Trey Lances powerful arm? I still think Justin Fields had the best arm strength, so I'm wondering why Zach Wilson and Trey Lance are regarded as stronger...

Depends on what qualifies as "proof" for you

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-superlatives-quarterbacks-trevor-lawrence-justin-fields-trey-lance-mac-jones

The 2021 quarterback class is hands down the single best PFF has ever scouted in its seven years of grading college football. That means these superlatives are quite literally the best of the best.

Strongest Arm: Trey Lance

Not only does Lance have easy juice on the ball already, but there’s also reason to think he could get even stronger because he is the youngest quarterback in the draft. Even in only one season of play, Lance still has throws all over his tape that make you say “wow” with the velocity he puts on them.

Yeah, that's not proof. There isn't necessarily a clear way to quantify arm strength. Is it the velocity with which the ball leaves the hand? Is it the distance it travels? If the former, I'd agree that Lance probably has the advantage. He can really drive the ball. His outs - when he hits them the way he wants - barely elevate above his hand. And on his deep balls, the ball explodes off his hand. Fields has more of an effortless quality to his throws, perhaps due in part to his more elongated throwing motion. In terms of distance they can throw it, I think it's a really close call. But Fields has way more control.

PFF also rates Lance as the better runner, and I'd take Fields over him pretty easily. They have a pretty similar running style. They can make guys miss, but they more often rely on their speed and power to make plays. Oddly, in citing a reason for that, Mike Renner (PFF's draft guy) mentioned Lance's yards after contact. Frankly, that's a dumb metric to use in this area. I've said this before, but any one of the guys Fields was playing against would have been the best defender on the field in Lance's games. And Fields made some of them look downright silly. Lance got a lot of yards running through LBs who weighed less than he did. Hell, he played in a game at one point in which the NT weighed something crazy, like 240. They're close, but I think Fields is a tick faster, stronger, and more elusive. And he's nails at sneaking the ball. Lance ran more, especially on called plays (oddly a ton of draws), but that doesn't make him the better runner.

Physically, these guys are really close, but Fields is more accurate. It's not even close. If we're rating on an NFL scale, I'd say Fields is an 8 or 9 out of 10 in accuracy. Lance is more like a 4 out of 10, if that. It's almost certainly the thing that's most likely to cause him to fail, if he does. He'll have to make big improvement to become an elite QB, or maybe even a good one.