2023 Offseason

[Pattersonca65]

I do think a lot of people are coming close to writing off Purdy very prematurely. He played remarkably for a rookie - any rookie, much less a guy with such little offseason work who was thrown into a tough situation given the team around him and the weight of expectations. Although there are reasons to question his ultimate upside, it would be absolutely absurd to think he's peaked. But that seems to be the attitude of many in the national media and the fanbase.

Now, yes, we have seen guys really excel in a limited sample and then come back down to earth, like Garoppolo in 2017, but Garoppolo was in his fourth season in the league at that point and was thrown into a situation with no pressure at all. We were 1-10 and out of the playoff hunt by the time he came in. What Purdy did, as a rookie in an incredibly high pressure situation, really was extraordinary. And despite the talent, it was no gimme. It certainly doesn't mean he'll make the jump to elite QB, but we've got to assume that he still has plenty of room for improvement.

That said, like Jimmy, he'll likely be limited by his physical abilities. The good news is that, in this offense, being an athletic freak isn't such a big deal. And if Jimmy had just cut down on the idiotic plays, we probably have at least one and possibly more Lombardis even with his limitations. The concern comes if and when we have to extend Purdy.

I'm a firm believer that it's really hard to win in this league with a guy like Garoppolo - probably a top-20 QB at any given time (assuming he's better on a given day than most rookies, for instance), but closer to 20 than to 10 - making even 75% of what the top players make. We were able to do it because we entered the situation with a ton of cap space, and we've been kicking the cap hit can down the road for years. But that will have to end at some point. At that point, if Purdy can't be "the guy" even with a mediocre supporting cast, then we're back to square one - or worse, in QB purgatory like the Vikings with Cousins. But that's two or three years away, so it's awfully premature to get worked up about it now.

The only thing that should and does cause some serious consternation about the QB situation is the question of if we are committing to Purdy too early and, as a result, giving up on Lance, a guy who does have undeniable upside that could surpass Purdy's. And that is a real concern. But my view is that it's on Lance to show that he deserves a shot to challenge for the job with his play in practices and the preseason before we even get to talking about the regular season. Hopefully he'll do so and then we'll have a good problem on our hands.

This is a bit of what Chris Simms said after discussing with Shanahan. When Jimmy G went down last year I thought the season was probably over with Brock Purdy starting. He far exceeded my expectations. At the same time fans need to remember he is still a rookie with plenty to learn at the NFL level.


https://www.ninersnation.com/2023/6/6/23751317/brock-purdy-kyle-shanahan-49ers

He does have room for improvement but I think Purdy is more the Mac Jones type that's closer to tapping out their ceiling than not. He doesn't have that untapped potential like you could say with Lance, Fields, Richardson, etc which means he's probably not going to sniff top 5 QB territory but you're not getting a flat-out bust either and it looks like you'll have someone that's pretty good.

I don't buy the all the untapped potential argument. Lance does not look like the runner he was in college. The difference is in the jump in talent from Div II school to the NFL. Lance has a strong arm and big physically. He has shown he can throw to wide open guys running deep downfield but whether he can ever make the shorter routes and throw guys open into tight windows is a big question mark as his ability to mentally process on the field. Purdy could in theory be like another QB with the same limitations in Drew Brees who is just as short and had a limited arm. Reaching that level of a QB is a stretch but Lance has his own potential limiting factors which may prevent him from ever reaching above a mid-teir QB.

[CrimsonCrew]

I think Lance looks a lot like the runner he was in college, that just doesn't transfer well to the NFL. Most of Lance's running in college was these draw plays up the middle. He used good footwork and instincts, combined with his size and power, to churn out some tough yards. That works at NDSU, but he can't overpower NFL LBs. We need to limit his running, allow him to capitalize with the occasional scramble, but as said, all of his focus right now needs to be on becoming a better passer.

[Pattersonca65]

I think Lance looks a lot like the runner he was in college, that just doesn't transfer well to the NFL. Most of Lance's running in college was these draw plays up the middle. He used good footwork and instincts, combined with his size and power, to churn out some tough yards. That works at NDSU, but he can't overpower NFL LBs. We need to limit his running, allow him to capitalize with the occasional scramble, but as said, all of his focus right now needs to be on becoming a better passer.

That what I was trying to get at. He looked better in college where some of the linebackers he was up against looked smaller than some of the NFL DBs he has to play against. He also doesn't look as fast going against NFL players who are bigger and faster than the players he faced in college. He can still be an effective on the ground in the NFL but not like he was in college.

[CrimsonCrew]

Baldy on the Hawks perhaps being in better position to challenge the Niners than people give them credit for:

https://www.nfl.com/videos/baldinger-seahawks-in-great-position-to-usurp-49ers-in-nfc-west

He raises some valid points. The Hawks really outplayed expectations last year, as I personally (and many others) thought they had among the weakest rosters in the league coming into the season. Geno was something of a revelation, particularly over the first half of the year, and that offense has legit playmakers. They have a lot of young talent, and have been drafting surprisingly well lately after stringing together multiple years of really questionable FO decisions. And as Baldy points out, they were very much in the playoff game through three quarters. They could have even been ahead at that point as Brock had a couple balls that could easily have been picked. That said, I think this video overstates a few things.

First, it places a lot of emphasis on one big play. And yes, there's no doubt that fumble at the end of the third quarter swung the momentum of the game in a big way, but it's a real overstatement to say the Hawks were "driving down the field to take the lead right there." After all, the Niners were able to rush so aggressively because it was 3rd and 14, hardly a high percentage down. Even if Geno didn't fumble, he would have been sacked at the 25. The Hawks weren't particularly effective in Niners' territory in this one. They only scored one TD in meaningful game play from within Niner territory (they scored a TD with less than two minutes remaining, trailing by 24). They only got into the red zone twice outside of the garbage time drive.

Then you have to consider Brock's performance. Other than the Cowboys' game - where there was a real reason for it based on the opposing defense - it was arguably his shakiest performance of the season. He clearly had some jitters on the playoff stage, and left a lot of big plays on the field in the first half. Despite that, the Niners scored on all but one possession in the game. And Brock took off in the second half, absolutely carving up the Hawks with three consecutive TD drives to salt the game away. The only second-half drive that didn't lead to a TD was late when the Niners were trying to close it out - they ran on 7 of 9 plays, and five straight before a third-and-long - and that was the third-down play where Brock ran around and put it on Aiyuk's hands in the endzone.

Baldy also doesn't expect Geno to go backwards, but we already saw Geno go backwards during the last season. Geno started off at an amazing clip, posting a 6-3 record over his first nine games. He only threw 4 INTs, and only (relative to later in the season) took 21 sacks despite breaking in rookie OTs. But over the last nine games, including the playoff game, he threw 8 INTs and took 28 sacks en route to a 3-6 record. Granted that included a game against the Chiefs and two against us, but they also lost to Tampa Bay, Las Vegas, and Carolina. Their three wins came against the Mike White-led Jets and two narrow wins against the Rams teams QBed by John Wolford and Baker Mayfield. They were grinding at the end, and came darn close to getting knocked out of the playoff hunt by a flailing Rams team, though the Rams completely flubbed it at the end.

If you value QBR as a metric, and I think it has some use in context (more than QB rating, IMO), Geno was above 60 in 6 of his first 9 including three games of 73.3 or higher, and above 50 in all but one. In his last 9, he had only two games above 60 (once in that playoff game, oddly given his crucial fumble and INT), never cracked 66, and had four games below 50. I think either regression, or a continuation of his late-season play, is quite likely for a guy with Geno's track record.

I expect the Hawks to be better this year, and they're clearly the biggest threat in the division. They have completely overhauled their front seven, particularly their interior DL. They brought back Bobby Wagner, who was still great last year, though at 33 to start the season, there are questions about how long he can maintain it. They should get probably their best defensive player back in Jamal Adams, and they had what looks like a strong draft. But it's asking a lot for a completely new DL, effectively, to gel quickly, and I think their young corners were exposed a bit as the season wore on.

I don't think there's any doubt but that we're the better team on paper, but I guess that's why they play the games.

[CrimsonCrew]

Somewhat related to my last post is Mike Clay's unit and team grades:

https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/23/NFLDK2023_CS_ClayProjections2023.pdf

Hard to see putting the Niners 15th. Don't think there's much sense in doing a deep dive into this, but a few things that stand out:

QB coming in at 1.1 is understandable in some ways, but it doesn't reflect how Brock played (granted we still don't know he's going to be fully healthy). The Raiders are 1.6 despite Jimmy also having injury concerns. Kenny Pickett may have more upside, but there's no argument for him being better than Brock at this point, other than health.

WRs at 2.8 feels absurd. Samuel and Aiyuk have got to be in the conversation for the best starting WR duo in the league, and they both complement one another and are perfect fits for this offense. Jennings is an excellent #3. And that's purely as receivers. If you factor in blocking, we're almost certainly #1. From one to three, I think you're talking Cincy, maybe Miami based on their top-two alone, I can see Seattle if you assume Smith-Njigba has a good year, but that's some projection. I think it's tough to give any of these other teams the edge over the Niners.

Similarly, DEs at 2.0 is insane. Bosa alone should have us above a 2. Definitely the rest is projection, so I can't be that upset by it, but I can't help but think everyone is sleeping on Clelin Ferrell. He's not a bad player (63.8 PFF grade last year), he's just a bust given his draft spot. Certainly I don't expect him to be an impact pass rusher, but he's a starting caliber base end at worst, and has upside to be more in our system. And the expectation is that Drake Jackson will play a significant role at that spot.

Hard to quibble with the low unit grades at interior OL and CBs, but this is an area where I think the sum of the parts are better than the individual players on paper.

Anyway, interesting fuel for discussion during the dead season.

[CrimsonCrew]

PFF has also been doing a unit and player ranking series. Not going to really get into it, but this one struck me:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offensive-line-rankings-2023-offseason

They've got the Niners' OL 18th, in part because of two new starters. Curiously, they have Jon Feliciano starting at center instead of Brendel. I'm not sure if they missed the memo that we retained Brendel, or have Feliciano beating him out (which would be a bit odd as Brendel was the higher-graded player last year). No doubt all positions but Big Trent are a bit uncertain, but they did pretty well last year, and I expect more of the same this year. I would anticipate Banks and especially Burford will improve, and I think McKivitz can give us something pretty close to what McGlinchey did.

[CrimsonCrew]

And here I am lying about not really getting into it. PFF ranking receiving corps.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-nfl-receiving-corps-rankings

Niners at #4, which seems about right. Mostly I'm posting this out of frustration as I read about the Eagles at #2. If I had been running the show, the Niners would have taken Goedert over Pettis and Brown over Samuel. Granted it's hard to get too upset about Samuel in our system, who I also liked that year, but Brown has clearly been the better receiver.

[CrimsonCrew]

Man, PFF is just completely dropping the ball.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-secondary-rankings-2023-new-york-jets-miami-dolphins-take-top-spots

Secondary rankings, Niners come in at 9, which on the surface seems fair. I think the secondary is a spot where the sum is greater than the individual parts. The issue for me is that they list Myles Hartsfield as a projected starter. There's a pretty good change Hartsfield doesn't even make the roster, and anyone who is even slightly tapped into the Niners knows that Isaiah Oliver is the projected starter at slot corner. You can look at the contracts they received - Hartsfield signed for the league minimum and Oliver got a two-year, $6.75 million deal. You can look at literally any reports out of OTAs, where Oliver started at the slot position and deflected a number of balls. You can listen to what the FO has said, about intentionally pursuing him as the best slot corner on the market. It's pretty inexcusable to miss this in my view, right up there with missing that Brendel is returning as the starting center in their OL rankings.

Oliver didn't play a ton for the Falcons last year (349 snaps, just over 31% of defensive snaps in 12 games), but that's a decent number of snaps and he had a PFF grade of 77.9, which is very solid. This year he'll be a year further removed from a serious injury. He's unlikely to be a game-changing addition, but he's bigger and longer than Ward, five years younger, and ran a 40 that was only 0.03 seconds slower (Oliver only ran the 40 due to a finger injury). I don't expect a major drop-off, and it has kind of boggled my mind that literally no outlets have even factored Oliver and Ferrell into our offseason calculus. These are precisely the sort of solid but arguably underperforming veteran players who have taken off in our system and given us valuable snaps as role players or more (Omenihu, Key, Gipson, etc.).

[Cactus Jack]

Baldy on the Hawks perhaps being in better position to challenge the Niners than people give them credit for:

https://www.nfl.com/videos/baldinger-seahawks-in-great-position-to-usurp-49ers-in-nfc-west

He raises some valid points. The Hawks really outplayed expectations last year, as I personally (and many others) thought they had among the weakest rosters in the league coming into the season. Geno was something of a revelation, particularly over the first half of the year, and that offense has legit playmakers. They have a lot of young talent, and have been drafting surprisingly well lately after stringing together multiple years of really questionable FO decisions. And as Baldy points out, they were very much in the playoff game through three quarters. They could have even been ahead at that point as Brock had a couple balls that could easily have been picked. That said, I think this video overstates a few things.

First, it places a lot of emphasis on one big play. And yes, there's no doubt that fumble at the end of the third quarter swung the momentum of the game in a big way, but it's a real overstatement to say the Hawks were "driving down the field to take the lead right there." After all, the Niners were able to rush so aggressively because it was 3rd and 14, hardly a high percentage down. Even if Geno didn't fumble, he would have been sacked at the 25. The Hawks weren't particularly effective in Niners' territory in this one. They only scored one TD in meaningful game play from within Niner territory (they scored a TD with less than two minutes remaining, trailing by 24). They only got into the red zone twice outside of the garbage time drive.

Then you have to consider Brock's performance. Other than the Cowboys' game - where there was a real reason for it based on the opposing defense - it was arguably his shakiest performance of the season. He clearly had some jitters on the playoff stage, and left a lot of big plays on the field in the first half. Despite that, the Niners scored on all but one possession in the game. And Brock took off in the second half, absolutely carving up the Hawks with three consecutive TD drives to salt the game away. The only second-half drive that didn't lead to a TD was late when the Niners were trying to close it out - they ran on 7 of 9 plays, and five straight before a third-and-long - and that was the third-down play where Brock ran around and put it on Aiyuk's hands in the endzone.

Baldy also doesn't expect Geno to go backwards, but we already saw Geno go backwards during the last season. Geno started off at an amazing clip, posting a 6-3 record over his first nine games. He only threw 4 INTs, and only (relative to later in the season) took 21 sacks despite breaking in rookie OTs. But over the last nine games, including the playoff game, he threw 8 INTs and took 28 sacks en route to a 3-6 record. Granted that included a game against the Chiefs and two against us, but they also lost to Tampa Bay, Las Vegas, and Carolina. Their three wins came against the Mike White-led Jets and two narrow wins against the Rams teams QBed by John Wolford and Baker Mayfield. They were grinding at the end, and came darn close to getting knocked out of the playoff hunt by a flailing Rams team, though the Rams completely flubbed it at the end.

If you value QBR as a metric, and I think it has some use in context (more than QB rating, IMO), Geno was above 60 in 6 of his first 9 including three games of 73.3 or higher, and above 50 in all but one. In his last 9, he had only two games above 60 (once in that playoff game, oddly given his crucial fumble and INT), never cracked 66, and had four games below 50. I think either regression, or a continuation of his late-season play, is quite likely for a guy with Geno's track record.

I expect the Hawks to be better this year, and they're clearly the biggest threat in the division. They have completely overhauled their front seven, particularly their interior DL. They brought back Bobby Wagner, who was still great last year, though at 33 to start the season, there are questions about how long he can maintain it. They should get probably their best defensive player back in Jamal Adams, and they had what looks like a strong draft. But it's asking a lot for a completely new DL, effectively, to gel quickly, and I think their young corners were exposed a bit as the season wore on.

I don't think there's any doubt but that we're the better team on paper, but I guess that's why they play the games.

Thought I would chime in.

I'll start by saying that I believe the Hawks are still a year away, another offseason, from truly being considered a contender in the NFC. If I'm being totally honest.

The roster is significantly better. Thanks in part to the draft & free agency.

The team was really aggressive in free agency this year. Which is kind of different from years past. Partly due to the way that Geno's contract was structured. His cap hit is fairly low & it's fairly incentive based. The team can actually move on from him next year, if they decide to go in a different direction. It's very team friendly in that regard.

The Russ trade worked out better than anyone could have imagined. Not only do they have his replacement in Geno, at least in the short term. But the draft picks acquired from Denver have really helped improve the overall roster. Which was an issue.

Is Geno the long-term answer? Probably not. But he's the perfect bridge QB. Much like Jimmy was for the Niners. I feel completely fine with him as the starter.

In my mind, the defense is still a work in progress. Wait & see approach.

The secondary is much improved. The addition of Witherspoon is huge. Tariq Woolen, Witherspoon & Mike Jackson might be the best CB tandem in the league going forward. Having a healthy Jamal Adams will certainly help. They signed Julian Love (Giants) in free agency, partly to cover for Adams if he misses time.

Bringing Wagner back is another huge component. They simply didn't have good enough personnel last season. Especially in the front 7. It was an issue all year. The interior D-line is improved, but still an unknown.

Offensively? This team looks loaded on paper.

You have a two-headed monster at RB in Walker & Zach Charbonnet (UCLA). They really compliment one another. Walker is more the home run hitter. Charbonnet being more of the between the tackles runner. Which they will lean on heavily.

Adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a gamechanger. He's going to open up the offense I think in ways that we haven't seen. I also think eventually he's going to takeover as the #1 guy. A legit threat in the slot.

The O-line is still young. You have the two tackles, who are now in their 2nd year. If there was one weak spot on the line, it would be right guard.

Is this team better than the Niners, at least on paper? No.

Another offseason is needed, to continue to add talent. Especially on defense.

But make no mistake about it, this team is trending upwards. There's a good vibe around this team now. That wasn't necessarily there the last couple of years with Wilson in place. You can sense it.

[CrimsonCrew]

Thought I would chime in.

I'll start by saying that I believe the Hawks are still a year away, another offseason, from truly being considered a contender in the NFC. If I'm being totally honest.

The roster is significantly better. Thanks in part to the draft & free agency.

The team was really aggressive in free agency this year. Which is kind of different from years past. Partly due to the way that Geno's contract was structured. His cap hit is fairly low & it's fairly incentive based. The team can actually move on from him next year, if they decide to go in a different direction. It's very team friendly in that regard.

The Russ trade worked out better than anyone could have imagined. Not only do they have his replacement in Geno, at least in the short term. But the draft picks acquired from Denver have really helped improve the overall roster. Which was an issue.

Is Geno the long-term answer? Probably not. But he's the perfect bridge QB. Much like Jimmy was for the Niners. I feel completely fine with him as the starter.

In my mind, the defense is still a work in progress. Wait & see approach.

The secondary is much improved. The addition of Witherspoon is huge. Tariq Woolen, Witherspoon & Mike Jackson might be the best CB tandem in the league going forward. Having a healthy Jamal Adams will certainly help. They signed Julian Love (Giants) in free agency, partly to cover for Adams if he misses time.

Bringing Wagner back is another huge component. They simply didn't have good enough personnel last season. Especially in the front 7. It was an issue all year. The interior D-line is improved, but still an unknown.

Offensively? This team looks loaded on paper.

You have a two-headed monster at RB in Walker & Zach Charbonnet (UCLA). They really compliment one another. Walker is more the home run hitter. Charbonnet being more of the between the tackles runner. Which they will lean on heavily.

Adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a gamechanger. He's going to open up the offense I think in ways that we haven't seen. I also think eventually he's going to takeover as the #1 guy. A legit threat in the slot.

The O-line is still young. You have the two tackles, who are now in their 2nd year. If there was one weak spot on the line, it would be right guard.

Is this team better than the Niners, at least on paper? No.

Another offseason is needed, to continue to add talent. Especially on defense.

But make no mistake about it, this team is trending upwards. There's a good vibe around this team now. That wasn't necessarily there the last couple of years with Wilson in place. You can sense it.

I'm honestly shocked it took you this long to do so.

You flesh it out more than I did, but the Hawks are absolutely a threat to the Niners in upcoming years. The Niners are going to lose some real talent due to cap constraints starting next year. I think we'll probably have to cut or trade Armstead, may trade Aiyuk, probably lose Jennings, and have plenty of other hard choices to make. Meanwhile, the Hawks' young players should be up-and-coming.

The Geno-Jimmy comparison is a fair one, even though both fanbases might rankle a little at the comparison. I'm curious to see how Geno plays this year. Is it the Geno from the end of the year, or the Geno from the start? He will absolutely have a complement of weapons that will rival almost any in the league, assuming JSN pans out in year one. That dude could be an absolute nightmare out of the slot, and is a perfect addition to what they needed with their very good, if not elite, outside pair. The OTs were solid last year and could very well make a jump in their second season.

Assuming that Witherspoon is as advertised, that secondary could look very scary. Though again, Woolen was great, but I think teams started to figure him out a bit by the end of the year (JT O'Sullivan has a look at Purdy's game against Seattle where he repeatedly calls out Woolen though he calls out the number, not his name) and we'll have to see if he can continue to develop. Given his HC and his lack of experience playing the position, I would expect him to do so, but despite his elite measurables, he's somewhat stiff and can be exploited to blow assignments at this point. Dropping to the second guy on the food chain should help, though.

I still think DL is a weak link for this team, despite the improvements. They don't have anyone who is truly scary at this point, but some promising players. I'm curious to see how the run D holds up, and if they can pressure the passer. Even the best secondaries in the league can only hold up for so long.

Hawks are a legit threat in the division, but assuming even solid QB play, I think we're the better team...for now. Will be an interesting few years, though.

[Cactus Jack]

The Geno-Jimmy comparison is a fair one, even though both fanbases might rankle a little at the comparison. I'm curious to see how Geno plays this year. Is it the Geno from the end of the year, or the Geno from the start? He will absolutely have a complement of weapons that will rival almost any in the league, assuming JSN pans out in year one. That dude could be an absolute nightmare out of the slot, and is a perfect addition to what they needed with their very good, if not elite, outside pair. The OTs were solid last year and could very well make a jump in their second season.

Assuming that Witherspoon is as advertised, that secondary could look very scary. Though again, Woolen was great, but I think teams started to figure him out a bit by the end of the year (JT O'Sullivan has a look at Purdy's game against Seattle where he repeatedly calls out Woolen though he calls out the number, not his name) and we'll have to see if he can continue to develop. Given his HC and his lack of experience playing the position, I would expect him to do so, but despite his elite measurables, he's somewhat stiff and can be exploited to blow assignments at this point. Dropping to the second guy on the food chain should help, though.

I still think DL is a weak link for this team, despite the improvements. They don't have anyone who is truly scary at this point, but some promising players. I'm curious to see how the run D holds up, and if they can pressure the passer. Even the best secondaries in the league can only hold up for so long.

Hawks are a legit threat in the division, but assuming even solid QB play, I think we're the better team...for now. Will be an interesting few years, though.

The Hawks played their toughest stretch against good teams towards the end of the season. That would explain some of his struggles. Yes, he did struggle against the Niners. But otherwise he was very good for most of the season. He blew away everyone's expectations up here. I'm not worried about him regressing. Especially when you consider that he presumably has a better supporting cast now.

You have to remember that he didn't play for a long stretch. He was a backup. He wasn't given another opportunity to start after leaving the Jets. He got better over time, as he got to sit & watch. Learn how to be a professional. He says when he got to Seattle as the backup to Wilson, he had his first child. That's when he really matured as a person. He's a hard worker. Studies film, etc. He has a lot of good qualities.

The Niners are still the more talented team. Especially defensively. But I think it's completely fair to say that the gap in talent is closing.

The D-line is still a huge question mark for us. As far as how they can impact a game? They added some guys on the interior. Dre'Mont Jones was a high profile free agent that came over from Denver. They brought back Jarran Reed. They have a rotation of guys coming off the edge. But you're right, not a name that really strikes fear. Which is why I maintain that they're still a work in progress.

It's been reported that Will Anderson & Witherspoon we're the two guys they targeted during the draft. They would have been completely good with taking Anderson had he fallen to them. Which obviously would have gone a long ways toward solving that issue. They just simply weren't willing to gamble on Jalen Carter. Not after how the Malik McDowell situation played out here. Niner fans should remember the name Reuben Foster.

[wco81]

Bill Simmons was saying the same thing, that he might bet on Seattle to win the division depending on the betting line.

His reasoning:

1. If some of their high picks panned out as rookies.

2. 49ers have a difficult schedule, like 5 games vs. teams coming off byes while when they come off bye, they will be playing a team also coming off bye. Then cited some long cross-country trips spaced poorly.


Last year the offense was dynamic. This year, you would expect teams to have scouted them better so maybe McCaffrey doesn't have the same impact -- also he's not getting younger -- and QB isn't as productive, regardless of which one gets the most snaps.


Even if they played at the same level as last year though, I'm not convinced they have enough to beat teams like Philly or KC, the latter of which beat them pretty convincingly at Levis.

That's not to say they can't win a SB, maybe those teams get beaten or have key injuries.

With so much parity anything could happen but for now Eagles and KC have separated themselves from the league.

[CrimsonCrew]

The schedule concern is a real one. It's a pretty tough schedule, and I don't think it's homerism this year to say that it would be hard to conceive the the schedulers doing the Niners fewer favors with the short rest and travel. I would imagine the inverse rest differential they have this year is among the worst in league history.

But in terms of caliber of opponent, the Niners and Hawks play the same schedule except for three games. We play the first-place teams from the NFC South, NFC North, and AFC South, while they play the second-place teams from those divisions. So we play Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Jacksonville while they play Carolina, Detroit, and Tennessee. Carolina will be breaking in a new QB, but Tampa Bay is likely trotting out Baker Mayfield. Given Carolina's strong run game, even with a rookie QB, I think there's a strong argument they could be the tougher matchup for Seattle than Tampa Bay is for us. I think there's also a pretty strong argument that Detroit is better than Minnesota at this point. Detroit ended the season on an 8-2 tear, and though Minnesota was 7-3 in that span, they played a pretty easy schedule and had some bad losses (including by 11 points to Detroit). Jacksonville looks a fair bit better than Tennessee.

I agree that although we should be in the discussion of the best teams in the league, we're a half-step below the others given the uncertainty at the QB position. It seems like a lot of people in the organization feel that Purdy's injury stole a SB from us. I think that's a stretch. The Eagles were really, really good last year, and they matched up well against us. They had some questions about their run defense, but those largely arose without mountain-of-a-man Jordan Davis in the lineup. And basically everywhere else on the field, they are at or near the top of the league. I'm not at all confident we win that game, even with the D generally playing well. I think we would have given KC more of a challenge than we did earlier in the year, with Garoppolo at QB and McCaffrey not fully integrated into the lineup (10 touches), but I don't know that we can count on containing that offense.

That said, I do think the addition of Hargrave could be huge. From a pass rush standpoint, he's been right up there with Aaron Donald and Chris Jones in terms of interior pass rush over the past few years. Put that next to Bosa and a healthy Armstead, and it may not even matter who our fourth DL is (I'm still kind of hoping they sign Justin Houston to a cheap one-year deal). An addition like that can take a defense to another level. But as always, one or two key injuries could derail the whole thing. That's what makes the NFL so interesting, though.

[CrimsonCrew]

Barrows ranked every position group on the team, considering starting talent and depth, as follows:

1) RB
2) DT
3) S
4) LB
5) WR
6) DE
7) G
8) QB
9) TE
10) C
11) T
12) CB

Interesting way to sort them out. Some grounds for quibbling. The ones that stand out to me in particular are WR and TE, where we may not have great depth, but our starters are basically elite, so I think they should be higher. At WR in particular, we have two guys who would challenge for the best duo in the league, a very good third receiver, and interesting complementary pieces. Totally agree that depth is not stellar, and there are huge question marks about next year when we may move on from Aiyuk, Jennings, and McCloud, but that shouldn't factor into the assessment this year. In terms of top-end talent and depth, I think WR should be 2 or 3.

The thing that really prompted this post, though, is the review of the OT position. I think Barrows has been dipping in here and stealing from my posts.

The problem is that the team already is breaking in a new starter at right tackle, McKivitz, and would run into major issues if Williams had to miss a game or two. If that were the case, the next man up would either be newcomer Matt Pryor, who gave up six sacks in nine starts for the Colts last season, or Jaylon Moore, the 49ers’ No. 4 tackle last season. Williams has missed at least one game in every season since 2013.

The 49ers also haven’t invested in the future at tackle as they did at guard, which is perhaps a result of their not having a first-round pick the last two seasons. Everyone thought they’d target a tackle in this year’s draft, but instead they took a safety at pick No. 87, a kicker at pick No. 99 and a tight end at pick No. 101. Tackles were taken at pick Nos. 103 (Nick Saldiveri, Saints), 106 (Blake Freeland, Colts), 111 (Dawand Jones, Browns), 118 (Braeden Daniels, Commanders) and 120 (Carter Warren, Jets).

The 49ers argued there were no prospects they felt would be better than the incumbents this season. Given the state of college offensive lines, that’s undoubtedly true. But what about getting a tackle ready for 2024? Williams is 34 and seemed awfully weary at the close of the 2022 season. McKivitz and Moore are largely unproven.

The lack of depth at OT really concerns me. This year and, more importantly, going forward. That and WR depth going forward are arguably the biggest concerns on the roster, and certainly on offense. We are likely to lose impact players at both positions in the next year or two, and our pipeline of young talent there is weak at best.

[Pattersonca65]

Rams sign A Witherspoon to replace Ramsey. What a downgrade

[CrimsonCrew]

Rams sign A Witherspoon to replace Ramsey. What a downgrade

Huge downgrade from Ramsey, but big upgrade over what they had. That defensive backfield was barren.

[Cactus Jack]

Hawks are a legit threat in the division, but assuming even solid QB play, I think we're the better team...for now. Will be an interesting few years, though.

Read on Twitter

Fwiw he was spot on about Geno & the team last offseason. When everyone thought they would be terrible.

I still think they're a year away from truly challenging teams like the Niners, Eagles, etc.

[CrimsonCrew]

Saw that. Riddick has got some fair points, but as said above, what Geno Smith did last year is a tale of two halves, and even with the big first half of the season, he ended the season in like the top-3 in turnover-worthy throws.

The Hawks have the appearance of a lot of talent, but much/most of it is unproven. Yes, we should probably expect that Woolen will continue to be an excellent CB. We should probably expect that Witherspoon and Smith-Njigba will be excellent. We should probably expect that the OTs will improve and sustain their play through the season. But the reality is that we haven't really seen it yet on the pro stage.

They've arguably got as good a core of young players as any team in the league. Definitely stronger than the Niners' after we flushed three drafts down the drain (seemingly, but still slightly TBD) on the Lance trade. Is this the year they nip us? Maybe, but I still like the Niners' chances in this season, as our core is still mostly in their primes and simply has more of a track record of elite play.

As always acknowledged as a caveat, the Niners' QB situation is murky at best, but this team has shown an ability to win with mediocre QB play. And despite Riddick's team comparison, even new-and-improved Geno ain't Pat Mahomes. Granted with the skill players he has, he shouldn't have to be.

[Cactus Jack]

Saw that. Riddick has got some fair points, but as said above, what Geno Smith did last year is a tale of two halves, and even with the big first half of the season, he ended the season in like the top-3 in turnover-worthy throws.

The Hawks have the appearance of a lot of talent, but much/most of it is unproven. Yes, we should probably expect that Woolen will continue to be an excellent CB. We should probably expect that Witherspoon and Smith-Njigba will be excellent. We should probably expect that the OTs will improve and sustain their play through the season. But the reality is that we haven't really seen it yet on the pro stage.

They've arguably got as good a core of young players as any team in the league. Definitely stronger than the Niners' after we flushed three drafts down the drain (seemingly, but still slightly TBD) on the Lance trade. Is this the year they nip us? Maybe, but I still like the Niners' chances in this season, as our core is still mostly in their primes and simply has more of a track record of elite play.

As always acknowledged as a caveat, the Niners' QB situation is murky at best, but this team has shown an ability to win with mediocre QB play. And despite Riddick's team comparison, even new-and-improved Geno ain't Pat Mahomes. Granted with the skill players he has, he shouldn't have to be.

All fair points.

It will be really fascinating to see what kind of year the Rams put forward. That roster has significant holes. But as long as Stafford remains healthy, they should finish with more than 5 wins.

[CrimsonCrew]

Saw that. Riddick has got some fair points, but as said above, what Geno Smith did last year is a tale of two halves, and even with the big first half of the season, he ended the season in like the top-3 in turnover-worthy throws.

The Hawks have the appearance of a lot of talent, but much/most of it is unproven. Yes, we should probably expect that Woolen will continue to be an excellent CB. We should probably expect that Witherspoon and Smith-Njigba will be excellent. We should probably expect that the OTs will improve and sustain their play through the season. But the reality is that we haven't really seen it yet on the pro stage.

They've arguably got as good a core of young players as any team in the league. Definitely stronger than the Niners' after we flushed three drafts down the drain (seemingly, but still slightly TBD) on the Lance trade. Is this the year they nip us? Maybe, but I still like the Niners' chances in this season, as our core is still mostly in their primes and simply has more of a track record of elite play.

As always acknowledged as a caveat, the Niners' QB situation is murky at best, but this team has shown an ability to win with mediocre QB play. And despite Riddick's team comparison, even new-and-improved Geno ain't Pat Mahomes. Granted with the skill players he has, he shouldn't have to be.

All fair points.

It will be really fascinating to see what kind of year the Rams put forward. That roster has significant holes. But as long as Stafford remains healthy, they should finish with more than 5 wins.

Rams have their big three still, but after that, it gets ugly unless they have unheralded young guys step up. Biggest question is probably the OL, which was bad last year. They've got some pieces that could improve markedly, and if they do, Rams could be interesting. Still hard to see them challenging for the division, though.