2023 Offseason

[CrimsonCrew]

Back to Niners-specific stuff, I've been listening to John Chapman's roster review on 49ers Rush. Worth a listen, if you haven't been following. He's counting down the entire roster from 91-1 during the offseason lull. Two particularly interesting ones recently: Tay Martin and Khalan Laborn.

Martin was interesting for off-the-field stuff. Dude has had a rough go of it. His senior year, his father was in prison when his mom passed away from cardiac arrest. He has I think three younger siblings, and was suddenly responsible for them. Then in college, was very close with a QB who committed suicide and a DL who ODed. Tough stuff.

Laborn was interesting from an on-field perspective. Specifically, he was the #1 RB recruit in the HS class of 2017 on both 247Sports and Rivals.com, a class that included guys like Najee Harris, Cam Akers, D'Andre Swift, Brian Robinson, Travis Etienne and more. He redshirted at Florida, then blew out his knee, then the coaching staff changed and he was dismissed for conduct unbecoming or some such. He's got plenty of things to work on, particularly his turnovers, but as the highest-paid UDFA, he's got a legit chance to compete for a roster spot.

[wco81]

This has to be Carroll's last rebuild attempt right?

Whether it works or not, how much longer would he want to work?

[Cactus Jack]

This has to be Carroll's last rebuild attempt right?

Whether it works or not, how much longer would he want to work?

How long? That's still TBD.

It really will ultimately come down to whether or not they can get the defense back on track. The talent level on that side of the ball has been on a steady decline since the majority of the LOB crew went their separate ways. The last couple of years have been the roughest.

There is & was a belief even among the fanbase that Pete lost his way. Too much of the focus was shifted on Russ for a period (2018-'21).

It feels like they're getting back to their old ways, honestly. Competition & a more complete roster.

Pete has said that they've somewhat adapted. They've made significant schematic changes to the defense they run. They're no longer primarily a Cover-3 team. Switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4.

According to John Schneider, they even have changed their approach to the draft. Less drafting for need. Which was a big reason for the drop in talent. Too many reaches on players who didn't pan out.

It's fair to say that Pete is in his wheelhouse when it comes to "rebuilding" with a younger group. Because of that I see him sticking around for a while.

[CrimsonCrew]

Good point on Carroll and the younger roster. He did great with college kids, and Hawks probably have one of the younger rosters in the league at this point. Carroll historically does a great job of getting the most out of young players, especially in the defensive backfield, so this team could be tough to pass on. Especially if they can muster any kind of a pass rush whatsoever. That DL is going to be crucial, and they need Bobby Wagner to keep defying his age.

[wco81]

I was referring more to a willingness to continue doing the job, not whether he could, though as he ages, illness or just energy level could be challenging.

[Cactus Jack]

I was referring more to a willingness to continue doing the job, not whether he could, though as he ages, illness or just energy level could be challenging.

He's a Football lifer. I don't see him quitting any time soon unless there's some kind of family or health issue. He has too much energy to just sit around & not be involved.

[Cactus Jack]

Carroll historically does a great job of getting the most out of young players, especially in the defensive backfield, so this team could be tough to pass on. Especially if they can muster any kind of a pass rush whatsoever. That DL is going to be crucial, and they need Bobby Wagner to keep defying his age.

The problem is that the Niners are just not a good matchup at the moment. The key is trying to limit the run game. Yet they we're awful defending the run last season. The games they lost, we're primarily against teams that had a prolific rushing attack (Niners, Atlanta, New Orleans, Raiders). They simply could not hold up against the run. A lot will depend on if they can reverse this trend.

Having Bobby back in the fold, will certainly help. As well as some additions on the D-line. But I think it will still be a work in progress. As I don't think it's realistic to expect them to make the jump & suddenly be stout against the run. There are still legit concerns about depth at NT.

Yes, defending the pass is less of a concern. CB is one of their strongest/deepest position groups. Not only do they have the addition of Witherspoon, to go along with Tariq Woolen. But Mike Jackson played well as a starter opposite Woolen. Then you have Coby Bryant, who was the primary Nickle last season. So they really are 4/5 guys deep at Corner.

The pass rush is less of a concern than maybe the outside perception. Uchenna Nwosu & Darrell Taylor are guys that kind of fly under the radar. Both had 9.5 sacks. Then you've got guys like Boye Mafe & Derick Hall. Who we're both high draft picks. They actually finished with more sacks as a team than the Niners. Finished Top 10 in sacks. So again, it's not due to a lack of a pass rush.

This team will ultimately live & die based on how they fair against the run. It was their Achilles heel all of last year.

[CrimsonCrew]

Carroll historically does a great job of getting the most out of young players, especially in the defensive backfield, so this team could be tough to pass on. Especially if they can muster any kind of a pass rush whatsoever. That DL is going to be crucial, and they need Bobby Wagner to keep defying his age.

The problem is that the Niners are just not a good matchup at the moment. The key is trying to limit the run game. Yet they we're awful defending the run last season. The games they lost, we're primarily against teams that had a prolific rushing attack (Niners, Atlanta, New Orleans, Raiders). They simply could not hold up against the run. A lot will depend on if they can reverse this trend.

Having Bobby back in the fold, will certainly help. As well as some additions on the D-line. But I think it will still be a work in progress. As I don't think it's realistic to expect them to make the jump & suddenly be stout against the run. There are still legit concerns about depth at NT.

Yes, defending the pass is less of a concern. CB is one of their strongest/deepest position groups. Not only do they have the addition of Witherspoon, to go along with Tariq Woolen. But Mike Jackson played well as a starter opposite Woolen. Then you have Coby Bryant, who was the primary Nickle last season. So they really are 4/5 guys deep at Corner.

The pass rush is less of a concern than maybe the outside perception. Uchenna Nwosu & Darrell Taylor are guys that kind of fly under the radar. Both had 9.5 sacks. Then you've got guys like Boye Mafe & Derick Hall. Who we're both high draft picks. They actually finished with more sacks as a team than the Niners. Finished Top 10 in sacks. So again, it's not due to a lack of a pass rush.

This team will ultimately live & die based on how they fair against the run. It was their Achilles heel all of last year.

I hadn't realized their sack numbers were as high as they were, but I don't think that reflects the production. Sacks are generally an inconsistent measure and are not all equal. A first-down sack, though a significant play, is not as important as a third-down sack. A sack when trailing by a big margin or ahead by a big margin and forcing the other team to throw is not as significant. There can be coverage sacks where a DL loses the rep, but the QB has nowhere to go with the ball and runs into him.

From what I saw of the Hawks last year - granted not a ton other than the three games against the Niners - they struggled to generate consistent pressure on the QB. You're right that we should expect that to improve. They added a good pass-rushing DT, an interesting rookie taken with a fairly high pick, and we should expect at least some improvement from Taylor and Mafe. But as with many things about the Hawks right now, there's a lot of projection in that. If all goes right, this team could be in the mix for the SB. If it doesn't, they could be pretty bad. I expect they will be fighting for a playoff berth, but probably need some luck to advance to the NFC Championship. Much more volatility than the Niners for this year, at least, unless the Niners suffer a lot of significant in-season injuries (or just one to Nick Bosa...).

[CrimsonCrew]

And being ahead of the Niners in sacks last year wasn't really such an accomplishment. Outside of Bosa, we didn't have a legitimate pass-rushing threat last year. Armstead was banged up and underperforming. Ebukam and Omenihu are solid players, but not scary rushers.

The Niners should also be better in this area this year with Hargrave a huge upgrade over anything we had last year on the interior. On crucial pass plays, we will be lining up two guys next to each other who were top-3 pass-rushers at their position last year. That's a scary prospect. Armstead will be healthy and will now be the third rusher at worst. As with Mafe, I would expect Drake Jackson to improve. He's got obvious physical traits if he can put it together under Kocurek's tutelage. I think Ferrell is flying under the radar a little bit. I don't think he'll light it up as a pass rusher, but I think he'll be able to come close to what Omenihu provided, and there's at least a chance he takes off in this system. After all, Omenihu himself was nothing special before he came to the Niners.

At this point, the Hawks very arguably have more depth at DE, but it's hard to argue with the production the Niners have gotten out of the position with unheralded guys. And it's just not close on the interior, assuming Armstead's 2022 season was an injury-induced blip and not the sign of a physical deterioration.

[Cactus Jack]

The pass rush is less of a concern than maybe the outside perception. Uchenna Nwosu & Darrell Taylor are guys that kind of fly under the radar. Both had 9.5 sacks. Then you've got guys like Boye Mafe & Derick Hall. Who we're both high draft picks. They actually finished with more sacks as a team than the Niners. Finished Top 10 in sacks. So again, it's not due to a lack of a pass rush.

This team will ultimately live & die based on how they fair against the run. It was their Achilles heel all of last year.

I hadn't realized their sack numbers were as high as they were, but I don't think that reflects the production. Sacks are generally an inconsistent measure and are not all equal. A first-down sack, though a significant play, is not as important as a third-down sack. A sack when trailing by a big margin or ahead by a big margin and forcing the other team to throw is not as significant. There can be coverage sacks where a DL loses the rep, but the QB has nowhere to go with the ball and runs into him.

From what I saw of the Hawks last year - granted not a ton other than the three games against the Niners - they struggled to generate consistent pressure on the QB. You're right that we should expect that to improve. They added a good pass-rushing DT, an interesting rookie taken with a fairly high pick, and we should expect at least some improvement from Taylor and Mafe. But as with many things about the Hawks right now, there's a lot of projection in that. If all goes right, this team could be in the mix for the SB. If it doesn't, they could be pretty bad. I expect they will be fighting for a playoff berth, but probably need some luck to advance to the NFC Championship. Much more volatility than the Niners for this year, at least, unless the Niners suffer a lot of significant in-season injuries (or just one to Nick Bosa...).

Lol...The numbers actually suggest the opposite. Applying pressure wasn't necessarily an issue. They we're actually one of the more productive teams in that regard.

The difference is they don't have a Nick Bosa type, someone who can take over a game in that fashion. But they have a rotation of guys who kind of get overlooked.

Uchenna Nwosu is their most consistent rusher. At generating pressure. He likely should have recorded double digit sacks last season, with a little more luck.

Darrell Taylor needs to be more consistent. But he has the most raw ability of the bunch.

Boye Mafe played mostly on a limited basis. But flashed at times as a rookie. He was their best edge defending the run.

They signed Dre'Mont Jones in free agency, who is one of the better interior pass rushers around. He should add an element that they haven't had really since the departure of Michael Bennett.

[CrimsonCrew]

The pass rush is less of a concern than maybe the outside perception. Uchenna Nwosu & Darrell Taylor are guys that kind of fly under the radar. Both had 9.5 sacks. Then you've got guys like Boye Mafe & Derick Hall. Who we're both high draft picks. They actually finished with more sacks as a team than the Niners. Finished Top 10 in sacks. So again, it's not due to a lack of a pass rush.

This team will ultimately live & die based on how they fair against the run. It was their Achilles heel all of last year.

I hadn't realized their sack numbers were as high as they were, but I don't think that reflects the production. Sacks are generally an inconsistent measure and are not all equal. A first-down sack, though a significant play, is not as important as a third-down sack. A sack when trailing by a big margin or ahead by a big margin and forcing the other team to throw is not as significant. There can be coverage sacks where a DL loses the rep, but the QB has nowhere to go with the ball and runs into him.

From what I saw of the Hawks last year - granted not a ton other than the three games against the Niners - they struggled to generate consistent pressure on the QB. You're right that we should expect that to improve. They added a good pass-rushing DT, an interesting rookie taken with a fairly high pick, and we should expect at least some improvement from Taylor and Mafe. But as with many things about the Hawks right now, there's a lot of projection in that. If all goes right, this team could be in the mix for the SB. If it doesn't, they could be pretty bad. I expect they will be fighting for a playoff berth, but probably need some luck to advance to the NFC Championship. Much more volatility than the Niners for this year, at least, unless the Niners suffer a lot of significant in-season injuries (or just one to Nick Bosa...).

Lol...The numbers actually suggest the opposite. Applying pressure wasn't necessarily an issue. They we're actually one of the more productive teams in that regard.

The difference is they don't have a Nick Bosa type, someone who can take over a game in that fashion. But they have a rotation of guys who kind of get overlooked.

Uchenna Nwosu is their most consistent rusher. At generating pressure. He likely should have recorded double digit sacks last season, with a little more luck.

Darrell Taylor needs to be more consistent. But he has the most raw ability of the bunch.

Boye Mafe played mostly on a limited basis. But flashed at times as a rookie. He was their best edge defending the run.

They signed Dre'Mont Jones in free agency, who is one of the better interior pass rushers around. He should add an element that they haven't had really since the departure of Michael Bennett.

Not necessarily, assuming you're again referring to the sack numbers. Although sacks and pressure usually go together, they are not always the same. When I'm talking about pressure, I'm basically asking how often did the pass-rusher beat a block/s to affect the QB's throw. Sacks can be a pretty volatile metric, in part because they are contingent on what the other team is doing. Pressure rates tend to stay more consistent.

Sacks are volatile for a number of reasons. They depend on what the offense is doing. A DL could destroy a block, but if it's a screen or a shovel pass, it's unlikely to matter. An offense may be keeping in more blockers, which will lower sacks, but adversely impacts the passing game. Defenses can force coverage sacks, where a DL gets blocked but the QB has nowhere to go with the ball.

There are also questions about the circumstances of a given sack. Was the opponent in catchup mode and passing a lot? Was it garbage time? A first down sack is great, but not as impactful as a third down sack. And one big game can skew things when we're talking about such small numbers.

For instance, Taylor had 2.5 of his 9.5 sacks against the Jets, who were starting Noah Fant and Duane Brown at OT due to injuries. Those two guys were bad last year. So sure, 2.5 sacks in a game is always impressive, but Taylor netting over 25% of his sacks in a game against backup OTs reduces the impact of that overall sack number.

I did a relatively quick review of some of Taylor's other sacks on YouTube (started watching game highlights to try to pick out individual sacks, but that was a rabbit hole too deep even for me and I called it after two games), and here's a sampling of what we've got:

Against the Jets, he had clean sacks, but was beating bad players as noted above.

Against the Chiefs, Mahomes was flushed by a blitz and ran right into Taylor, who hadn't won the rep. Granted the Hawks' pass rush did win overall, but Taylor really got lucky.

Against the Panthers, Taylor was likely going to be pushed past Darnold, but Darnold bailed out of the pocket instead of climbing it, and Taylor ran him down from behind.

You can do this sort of exercise for any player, likely, including Nick Bosa, and reduce the impact of some of their sacks. Some plays they deserve sacks and don't get them, and other plays they get sacks they don't deserve. You would expect that to even out over time, but for some guys it doesn't. Ezekiel Ansah is a guy whose sack numbers always seemed high for his win rate, while Brandon Graham has historically had great win numbers but mediocre sack numbers. That's why that pressure rate becomes more important.

I don't have a PFF account, so I can't look into individual pressure and win rates for the Seahawks' rushers (not sure if other sites track this sort of thing, or if there's a team metric for it), but I would bet those metrics are not as strong as the 45 sacks would tend to suggest relative to other teams/players. They've taken steps to improve it this offseason, and I expect they will. But how good will they be? We shall see. As said, plenty of questions at DE outside of Bosa for the Niners, too.

[Cactus Jack]

Not necessarily, assuming you're again referring to the sack numbers. Although sacks and pressure usually go together, they are not always the same. When I'm talking about pressure, I'm basically asking how often did the pass-rusher beat a block/s to affect the QB's throw. Sacks can be a pretty volatile metric, in part because they are contingent on what the other team is doing. Pressure rates tend to stay more consistent.

Sacks are volatile for a number of reasons. They depend on what the offense is doing. A DL could destroy a block, but if it's a screen or a shovel pass, it's unlikely to matter. An offense may be keeping in more blockers, which will lower sacks, but adversely impacts the passing game. Defenses can force coverage sacks, where a DL gets blocked but the QB has nowhere to go with the ball.

There are also questions about the circumstances of a given sack. Was the opponent in catchup mode and passing a lot? Was it garbage time? A first down sack is great, but not as impactful as a third down sack. And one big game can skew things when we're talking about such small numbers.

For instance, Taylor had 2.5 of his 9.5 sacks against the Jets, who were starting Noah Fant and Duane Brown at OT due to injuries. Those two guys were bad last year. So sure, 2.5 sacks in a game is always impressive, but Taylor netting over 25% of his sacks in a game against backup OTs reduces the impact of that overall sack number.

I did a relatively quick review of some of Taylor's other sacks on YouTube (started watching game highlights to try to pick out individual sacks, but that was a rabbit hole too deep even for me and I called it after two games), and here's a sampling of what we've got:

Against the Jets, he had clean sacks, but was beating bad players as noted above.

Against the Chiefs, Mahomes was flushed by a blitz and ran right into Taylor, who hadn't won the rep. Granted the Hawks' pass rush did win overall, but Taylor really got lucky.

Against the Panthers, Taylor was likely going to be pushed past Darnold, but Darnold bailed out of the pocket instead of climbing it, and Taylor ran him down from behind.

You can do this sort of exercise for any player, likely, including Nick Bosa, and reduce the impact of some of their sacks. Some plays they deserve sacks and don't get them, and other plays they get sacks they don't deserve. You would expect that to even out over time, but for some guys it doesn't. Ezekiel Ansah is a guy whose sack numbers always seemed high for his win rate, while Brandon Graham has historically had great win numbers but mediocre sack numbers. That's why that pressure rate becomes more important.

I don't have a PFF account, so I can't look into individual pressure and win rates for the Seahawks' rushers (not sure if other sites track this sort of thing, or if there's a team metric for it), but I would bet those metrics are not as strong as the 45 sacks would tend to suggest relative to other teams/players. They've taken steps to improve it this offseason, and I expect they will. But how good will they be? We shall see. As said, plenty of questions at DE outside of Bosa for the Niners, too.

Yes, I was aware of what you meant. Pressure rate, QB hit rate, and other methods of measuring efficiency.

I spoke on Taylor & his need to be more consistent. He has a tendency to have hot & cold streaks. That is definitely an issue with him. Which has plagued him since he's entered the league. He had a leg injury & didn't play his rookie year (Covid year). So he has two seasons of experience. But that is something that he needs to improve upon in order to make that jump.

Look, I'm not trying to make an argument that the Hawks have a better D-line. Talent wise. They don't. I'm just trying to give more of an accurate assessment. The line last year, had more production than maybe the outside perception.

It would be great if they had a Nick Bosa or someone of that caliber. But there are only a few of those guys around.

[CrimsonCrew]

Sure, not attributing an argument that the Hawks have the better DL argument to you. And you're right that the run game is probably the bigger concern than the passing game for this defense. They really struggled there last year. Always appreciate your perspective and knowledge of the Hawks. And hey, a little friendly back-and-forth, especially during the dead time of year, is definitely welcome.

[Cactus Jack]

Sure, not attributing an argument that the Hawks have the better DL argument to you. And you're right that the run game is probably the bigger concern than the passing game for this defense. They really struggled there last year. Always appreciate your perspective and knowledge of the Hawks. And hey, a little friendly back-and-forth, especially during the dead time of year, is definitely welcome.

Do I have any worries about this team at the moment? Sure.

The two biggest question marks, roster wise, is probably the lack of depth at LB & NT. They had one healthy Nose Tackle on the roster at the end of the season. That number hasn't really changed. Meanwhile, Jordyn Brooks is coming off an ACL & may miss time. That leaves Wagner, and Devin Bush as the only guys with experience. An injury to either one, could be a major problem. Especially in regards to solving the Run D issues.

There is still some uncertainty at Guard as well. You have a starting Right Guard who has dealt with injuries & his projected backup is a rookie 4th round pick.

So yeah, this team is far from perfect.

[Jikkle]

Seahawks have the same issue that the 9ers do and that's the QB spot.

Geno no doubt played better than anticipated and I'm not saying Geno is bad but he's just not that guy that's going to get you through the playoffs and win you a Super Bowl.

Yeah you glance at the stats and they look pretty good but the thing with football is it's one of the ultimate eye-test sports and Geno never looked like a guy that would be able to match Mahomes to win a Super Bowl.

Same can kinda be said about the 9ers but their issue is the QB spot is more of a mystery than anything. If Purdy plays like he did last season they have a respectable shot at it though honestly I don't Purdy would've beaten the Chiefs if they advanced to the SB. But the question is if Purdy can keep up his pace or will he start to regress more towards the mean? Or will Lance even get a shot to see if he can develop into a Mahomes like QB? But the 9ers likely would've had at least one if not two rings if they had better play from QB than what Jimmy G gave them.

The way the league is now is the road to a Super Bowl is just much tougher to win without elite QB play. You can do it but the Chiefs haven't been to 3 out of the last 4 Super Bowls because of an a top to bottom amazing roster and just decent QB play.

[Cactus Jack]

Seahawks have the same issue that the 9ers do and that's the QB spot.

Geno no doubt played better than anticipated and I'm not saying Geno is bad but he's just not that guy that's going to get you through the playoffs and win you a Super Bowl.

Yeah you glance at the stats and they look pretty good but the thing with football is it's one of the ultimate eye-test sports and Geno never looked like a guy that would be able to match Mahomes to win a Super Bowl.

I would push back a little on that. I don't see Geno necessarily holding the team back. Or rather part of the problem. There's still a negative stigma about him, mainly from outsiders. Which is understandable. Based on his past. But having watched him start now for a full season, I don't necessarily buy into that narrative anymore.

I've already spoken about the issues that the roster dealt with last season. The O-line performed adequately at times. But also struggled against teams like SF. Starting two rookie Tackles. Which is to be expected.

At times, I don't think he got a ton of support from the guys around him. Whether it be the guys upfront or on the defensive side of the ball. Talent wise, they we're just outmatched. Geno really did have to play perfect for them to even have a chance. But as the roster improves, I think that will be less of an issue. So we'll see...

Fans expecting him to regress this season, I don't think holds much water. Unless of course the roster is hit hard with injuries. Especially along the O-line.

[CrimsonCrew]

Seahawks have the same issue that the 9ers do and that's the QB spot.

Geno no doubt played better than anticipated and I'm not saying Geno is bad but he's just not that guy that's going to get you through the playoffs and win you a Super Bowl.

Yeah you glance at the stats and they look pretty good but the thing with football is it's one of the ultimate eye-test sports and Geno never looked like a guy that would be able to match Mahomes to win a Super Bowl.

I would push back a little on that. I don't see Geno necessarily holding the team back. Or rather part of the problem. There's still a negative stigma about him, mainly from outsiders. Which is understandable. Based on his past. But having watched him start now for a full season, I don't necessarily buy into that narrative anymore.

I've already spoken about the issues that the roster dealt with last season. The O-line performed adequately at times. But also struggled against teams like SF. Starting two rookie Tackles. Which is to be expected.

At times, I don't think he got a ton of support from the guys around him. Whether it be the guys upfront or on the defensive side of the ball. Talent wise, they we're just outmatched. Geno really did have to play perfect for them to even have a chance. But as the roster improves, I think that will be less of an issue. So we'll see...

Fans expecting him to regress this season, I don't think holds much water. Unless of course the roster is hit hard with injuries. Especially along the O-line.

Again, though, regress from what? I don't expect him to continue to play the way he did to start the season. He's never played at that level previously, and he couldn't sustain it for the whole year last year. I think it's very reasonable to think he will come down from that level of play.

I don't expect him to regress from the way he finished the year. I think that was basically who Geno is. Some good play, some shaky play, and overall, decent QB play but probably not enough to elevate this roster above the best in the league without some pretty significant luck. Maybe he can clean up his play, but having watched Jimmy struggle to do just that over the past six years, I have some doubts about a player at this stage in his career doing so. That said, between the time he lost the starting job in NY to last year - seven NFL seasons - Smith only played in 15 games, only attempted 196 passes in live NFL action. So maybe there is more growth to be had there.

And his supporting cast should be better. The OL could see marked improvement as the second-year OTs take a step forward, and not suffer the late-season drop-off they apparently did. Their top three receivers should be able to at least challenge any other group out there, and complement one another well. The have awesome young RBs. So there's a very good chance his statistics will improve - if not on the year as a whole, at least in terms of how he ended it. But even in this revelatory season, he was turnover-prone.

But, as with the Niners, he plays in the NFC. In this conference, there's the Eagles, the Niners probably a little below that given the QB issues, the Cowboys, and then...what? The Saints? The Lions? No other teams really scare you. If the Niners lose one or two key players to injury, or struggle with that brutal schedule, the Hawks could win the division. Hell, they could snag a playoff bye. Someone else gets lucky against the Eagles early in the playoffs, and suddenly the Hawks are in the SB. I don't know that they can hang with the best teams in the AFC, but for one game, anything can happen.

I think the Niners are the better team overall, but a lot of my optimism this year also stems from the NFC-AFC divide. The NFC basically has one really good QB in Hurts, and even he has only done it for one year at that elite level. The AFC is absolutely loaded with elite and ascending talent. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Rodgers, Jackson, Lawrence. It's insane. Kirk Cousins is the second-ranked NFC QB according to PFF, and he's 9th.

[Cactus Jack]

Again, though, regress from what? I don't expect him to continue to play the way he did to start the season. He's never played at that level previously, and he couldn't sustain it for the whole year last year. I think it's very reasonable to think he will come down from that level of play.

I don't expect him to regress from the way he finished the year. I think that was basically who Geno is. Some good play, some shaky play, and overall, decent QB play but probably not enough to elevate this roster above the best in the league without some pretty significant luck. Maybe he can clean up his play, but having watched Jimmy struggle to do just that over the past six years, I have some doubts about a player at this stage in his career doing so. That said, between the time he lost the starting job in NY to last year - seven NFL seasons - Smith only played in 15 games, only attempted 196 passes in live NFL action. So maybe there is more growth to be had there.

And his supporting cast should be better. The OL could see marked improvement as the second-year OTs take a step forward, and not suffer the late-season drop-off they apparently did. Their top three receivers should be able to at least challenge any other group out there, and complement one another well. The have awesome young RBs. So there's a very good chance his statistics will improve - if not on the year as a whole, at least in terms of how he ended it. But even in this revelatory season, he was turnover-prone.

But, as with the Niners, he plays in the NFC. In this conference, there's the Eagles, the Niners probably a little below that given the QB issues, the Cowboys, and then...what? The Saints? The Lions? No other teams really scare you. If the Niners lose one or two key players to injury, or struggle with that brutal schedule, the Hawks could win the division. Hell, they could snag a playoff bye. Someone else gets lucky against the Eagles early in the playoffs, and suddenly the Hawks are in the SB. I don't know that they can hang with the best teams in the AFC, but for one game, anything can happen.

I think the Niners are the better team overall, but a lot of my optimism this year also stems from the NFC-AFC divide. The NFC basically has one really good QB in Hurts, and even he has only done it for one year at that elite level. The AFC is absolutely loaded with elite and ascending talent. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Rodgers, Jackson, Lawrence. It's insane. Kirk Cousins is the second-ranked NFC QB according to PFF, and he's 9th.

I'm not saying he's Superman. But if he's starting for the Niners, there is a decent chance that they would have had the #1 seed in the NFC & possibly a ring.

You're right, the NFC is weak.

Do I expect Geno to lead this team to the Super Bowl? No. But that's mostly due to the roster.

[CrimsonCrew]

Again, though, regress from what? I don't expect him to continue to play the way he did to start the season. He's never played at that level previously, and he couldn't sustain it for the whole year last year. I think it's very reasonable to think he will come down from that level of play.

I don't expect him to regress from the way he finished the year. I think that was basically who Geno is. Some good play, some shaky play, and overall, decent QB play but probably not enough to elevate this roster above the best in the league without some pretty significant luck. Maybe he can clean up his play, but having watched Jimmy struggle to do just that over the past six years, I have some doubts about a player at this stage in his career doing so. That said, between the time he lost the starting job in NY to last year - seven NFL seasons - Smith only played in 15 games, only attempted 196 passes in live NFL action. So maybe there is more growth to be had there.

And his supporting cast should be better. The OL could see marked improvement as the second-year OTs take a step forward, and not suffer the late-season drop-off they apparently did. Their top three receivers should be able to at least challenge any other group out there, and complement one another well. The have awesome young RBs. So there's a very good chance his statistics will improve - if not on the year as a whole, at least in terms of how he ended it. But even in this revelatory season, he was turnover-prone.

But, as with the Niners, he plays in the NFC. In this conference, there's the Eagles, the Niners probably a little below that given the QB issues, the Cowboys, and then...what? The Saints? The Lions? No other teams really scare you. If the Niners lose one or two key players to injury, or struggle with that brutal schedule, the Hawks could win the division. Hell, they could snag a playoff bye. Someone else gets lucky against the Eagles early in the playoffs, and suddenly the Hawks are in the SB. I don't know that they can hang with the best teams in the AFC, but for one game, anything can happen.

I think the Niners are the better team overall, but a lot of my optimism this year also stems from the NFC-AFC divide. The NFC basically has one really good QB in Hurts, and even he has only done it for one year at that elite level. The AFC is absolutely loaded with elite and ascending talent. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Rodgers, Jackson, Lawrence. It's insane. Kirk Cousins is the second-ranked NFC QB according to PFF, and he's 9th.

I'm not saying he's Superman. But if he's starting for the Niners, there is a decent chance that they would have had the #1 seed in the NFC & possibly a ring.

You're right, the NFC is weak.

Do I expect Geno to lead this team to the Super Bowl? No. But that's mostly due to the roster.

Hahaha. Sure, but the same thing could be said of Jimmy G pre-injury last year.

[arich35]

Anyone else nervous how the defense will look this year with Wilks as the DC? Hoping not much changes but his attitude seems so much different than Salah & Ryans