2022 Offseason thread

[CrimsonCrew]

Saints added Dalton. Already a pretty unlikely spot for Garoppolo, but even more so now.

[Samurai]

Saints added Dalton. Already a pretty unlikely spot for Garoppolo, but even more so now.

Barring injury, I just don't see a home for Jimmy. So unless a starting QB gets hurt, I think we have no choice but to release him after his injury has healed. My guess is that Lynch pretty much HAS to say that he doesn't plan to release him to at least give other teams the impression that we are not committed to cutting ties with him, which would drive his already dismal trade value even lower.

[CrimsonCrew]

Saints added Dalton. Already a pretty unlikely spot for Garoppolo, but even more so now.

Barring injury, I just don't see a home for Jimmy. So unless a starting QB gets hurt, I think we have no choice but to release him after his injury has healed. My guess is that Lynch pretty much HAS to say that he doesn't plan to release him to at least give other teams the impression that we are not committed to cutting ties with him, which would drive his already dismal trade value even lower.

Yeah, at this point, we've got to keep him until he's healthy. First, we could get dinged with a $7.5 million cap hit (some of that at least would offset based on any contract he signs, but I don't know that many teams have much more cash than that at this point) upon his release. Second, and perhaps more importantly, he has value. He's a solid if unspectacular starting NFL QB, and there are still at least a couple NFL teams that don't have that. Arguably his most likely landing spot would be with our division rival, and there's just no incentive to help them out by allowing them to start teaching him the playbook.

This franchise has gone out of its way to help guys when they depart the team, cutting them earlier than we had to so they could hit FA at the start, for instance. And I'm all for that. Except when we're talking about potentially handing another team their starting QB for free. It sucks for Jimmy, but at the end of the day, it's team first, and we've got to do the best thing for this squad, which at this point is to let him get healthy, try to move him, and cut him if we can't.

OR, we survey the league, see what the situation is, and see if he'd come back for like $10 million. I'm not at all confident he would do that, but there isn't a starting gig for him right now, and he might not be able to get that much after being cut. My preference would still be to move on from him, but with a solid paycut like that, suddenly the third-round comp pick we'd get for him looks more appealing, and we retain the option of trading him during the season if a competitive team loses its starter.

[CrimsonCrew]

Arden Key to the Jags. One year, worth up to $7 million, but unclear how much of that is incentives.

[CrimsonCrew]

Jed York analogized Jimmy-Trey with Joe-Steve. Maybe not entirely absurd, except that the salary cap was not a thing in those days. Absent the cap, I'd have relatively minor concerns with keeping both (I think there's something to be said for letting Lance get the full support of his team, but I think this team will unite behind whoever the starter is).

[CrimsonCrew]

Just for kicks, looked into how the Lance and Field trades are shaping up to date. Niners have given up #10 (2021), #29 (2022), and #102 (2022). Bears have given up #20 (2021), #164 (2021), #7 (2022), and #112 (2022). I'm not doing the whole, "Next year's draft is worth one round lower" thing, just looking at overall value of the picks.

Niners have given up 2032 points on the trade chart. Bears have given up 2445 (rounded up). No real point at all here, but interesting to note that if the Niners have another playoff season, they may only end up paying the equivalent of a late-second rounder more than the Bears did to grab Fields.

Of course, the only thing that matters is if the QB those teams took hits. And we could have had Fields for 1300.

[Dodub]

Just for kicks, looked into how the Lance and Field trades are shaping up to date. Niners have given up #10 (2021), #29 (2022), and #102 (2022). Bears have given up #20 (2021), #164 (2021), #7 (2022), and #112 (2022). I'm not doing the whole, "Next year's draft is worth one round lower" thing, just looking at overall value of the picks.

Niners have given up 2032 points on the trade chart. Bears have given up 2445 (rounded up). No real point at all here, but interesting to note that if the Niners have another playoff season, they may only end up paying the equivalent of a late-second rounder more than the Bears did to grab Fields.

Of course, the only thing that matters is if the QB those teams took hits. And we could have had Fields for 1300.

Crims didn’t we have the 12th pick and not the 10th? That might make our number even lower

[CrimsonCrew]

Just for kicks, looked into how the Lance and Field trades are shaping up to date. Niners have given up #10 (2021), #29 (2022), and #102 (2022). Bears have given up #20 (2021), #164 (2021), #7 (2022), and #112 (2022). I'm not doing the whole, "Next year's draft is worth one round lower" thing, just looking at overall value of the picks.

Niners have given up 2032 points on the trade chart. Bears have given up 2445 (rounded up). No real point at all here, but interesting to note that if the Niners have another playoff season, they may only end up paying the equivalent of a late-second rounder more than the Bears did to grab Fields.

Of course, the only thing that matters is if the QB those teams took hits. And we could have had Fields for 1300.

Crims didn’t we have the 12th pick and not the 10th? That might make our number even lower

You're right. We traded to Miami, who traded to Philly, who then traded to Dallas. I overlooked that last trade. So we have given up 1932 points to date.

[CrimsonCrew]

Niners exercised Juszczyk's option, locking him up for the next three years. Sigh.

Don't get me wrong, I love Juice. But his contract is absurd for the position he plays. $6.5 million next year year, and $7.5 million the following two years. That 2023 cap hit is more than 50% higher than the next-highest player at FB, who is scheduled to make less than $4 million. The 5th highest-paid FB is scheduled to make about $2.5 million.

Juice is a really good player, but it's just hard for me to believe that he's so very unique that he's worth that much more than anyone else at the position. Not to mention that he'll be 34 at a very physically demanding position in that last last season. The dead cap after 2024 isn't awful, at just $2.7 million. Granted that's less than paying for most FBs in the league outright.

[Samurai]

Niners exercised Juszczyk's option, locking him up for the next three years. Sigh.

Don't get me wrong, I love Juice. But his contract is absurd for the position he plays. $6.5 million next year year, and $7.5 million the following two years. That 2023 cap hit is more than 50% higher than the next-highest player at FB, who is scheduled to make less than $4 million. The 5th highest-paid FB is scheduled to make about $2.5 million.

Juice is a really good player, but it's just hard for me to believe that he's so very unique that he's worth that much more than anyone else at the position. Not to mention that he'll be 34 at a very physically demanding position in that last last season. The dead cap after 2024 isn't awful, at just $2.7 million. Granted that's less than paying for most FBs in the league outright.

I agree with you. Juice is great and I think most everyone here is glad he's on our side. He is the best fullback in the NFL. But is he 50% better than the second best? Is he more than twice as good as the 5th best? Pretty doubtful since that is a very high bar to clear. If we had someone else who was only 70% of the player that Juice is but is signed for close to the minimum, we could use that money to beef up several other positions.

[wco81]

Plus how effective are human battering rams after a couple of seasons?

He can be a factor in the passing game but not consistently.

And I don’t think he goes downhill as hard as some young hungry FBs do these days.

He has an incentive to make a lot of business decisions.

[arich35]

Niners exercised Juszczyk's option, locking him up for the next three years. Sigh.

Don't get me wrong, I love Juice. But his contract is absurd for the position he plays. $6.5 million next year year, and $7.5 million the following two years. That 2023 cap hit is more than 50% higher than the next-highest player at FB, who is scheduled to make less than $4 million. The 5th highest-paid FB is scheduled to make about $2.5 million.

Juice is a really good player, but it's just hard for me to believe that he's so very unique that he's worth that much more than anyone else at the position. Not to mention that he'll be 34 at a very physically demanding position in that last last season. The dead cap after 2024 isn't awful, at just $2.7 million. Granted that's less than paying for most FBs in the league outright.

I agree with you. Juice is great and I think most everyone here is glad he's on our side. He is the best fullback in the NFL. But is he 50% better than the second best? Is he more than twice as good as the 5th best? Pretty doubtful since that is a very high bar to clear. If we had someone else who was only 70% of the player that Juice is but is signed for close to the minimum, we could use that money to beef up several other positions.

Comparing Juice to FB's is a tough sell. He does WAY more than a typical FB, he is more of a FB/TE hybrid IMO and is so important to our run game.

[Dodub]

I am 10000000% on board with paying juice. What he means to this offense goes way beyond the amount that he’s being paid

[CrimsonCrew]

I am 10000000% on board with paying juice. What he means to this offense goes way beyond the amount that he’s being paid

The FB position has caught up to Juice a little bit. He's no longer making more than twice the next-highest guy. And I'm all for paying him like the best FB in the game, it's just a question of proportion. Let's pay him maybe 25% more than the next highest guy. At the end of the day, you're talking about like $2 million, so it's not a huge deal, it's just a pronounced difference between him and anyone else at the position.

[CrimsonCrew]

Interesting interview of Greg Papa by Haberman and Middlekauff. Papa said to look at Cleveland as a possible Jimmy destination. Lots of things would have to happen. Mayfield traded or refuses to report, and Watson suspended. But if both happen, the Browns are a playoff caliber roster without a clear QB (Jacoby Brissett is their #3). It's an interesting thought, and not outside the realm of possibility. Maybe we could recoup a third next year or something like that.

[Jikkle]

Interesting interview of Greg Papa by Haberman and Middlekauff. Papa said to look at Cleveland as a possible Jimmy destination. Lots of things would have to happen. Mayfield traded or refuses to report, and Watson suspended. But if both happen, the Browns are a playoff caliber roster without a clear QB (Jacoby Brissett is their #3). It's an interesting thought, and not outside the realm of possibility. Maybe we could recoup a third next year or something like that.

Putting it that way the Browns do make sense because Watson probably is getting suspended for 4 games and the Browns are in a win now mode. With the AFC the way it is you don't want to fall too far behind the pack and the Browns play exactly to Jimmy's strengths with a strong running game and defense along with the same offense he's been under with Shanahan.

Clearing Baker off the books would give them more than enough cap space to absorb Jimmy's cap hit and I'm sure Jimmy won't complain about making an easy 25 million and being able to hit free agency after the season.

[Dodub]

Interesting interview of Greg Papa by Haberman and Middlekauff. Papa said to look at Cleveland as a possible Jimmy destination. Lots of things would have to happen. Mayfield traded or refuses to report, and Watson suspended. But if both happen, the Browns are a playoff caliber roster without a clear QB (Jacoby Brissett is their #3). It's an interesting thought, and not outside the realm of possibility. Maybe we could recoup a third next year or something like that.

That one was interesting, they really went back and forth with Papa. Today on their show Middlekauff was saying that most of their fans are just now finding out how huge of a Jimmy fan Papa is.

[CrimsonCrew]

Maiocco, on the other hand, floated something that I mentioned last year: approaching Jimmy about taking a pay cut. It's not the worst idea in the world. If he'll agree to halve his salary, to like $13.5 million, then we generate decent savings, could still trade him at some point, and at worst should be in line for a third-round comp pick in 2024. I'm not sure that pick is worth eating that amount of cap space, but Lance has had a couple injuries already in limited playing time, and Lord knows we don't need Nate Sudfeld playing in actual games.

From Jimmy's perspective, he's unlikely to land a starting gig at this point, and he's unlikely to get more money than that after the draft, when most teams that aren't in clear rebuild situations are going to be close to the cap limit. It could make sense to stay in a familiar situation and compete with Lance for one more year.

This outcome seems pretty unlikely, but we simply cannot keep him at $27 million IMO.

[CrimsonCrew]

Interesting interview of Greg Papa by Haberman and Middlekauff. Papa said to look at Cleveland as a possible Jimmy destination. Lots of things would have to happen. Mayfield traded or refuses to report, and Watson suspended. But if both happen, the Browns are a playoff caliber roster without a clear QB (Jacoby Brissett is their #3). It's an interesting thought, and not outside the realm of possibility. Maybe we could recoup a third next year or something like that.

That one was interesting, they really went back and forth with Papa. Today on their show Middlekauff was saying that most of their fans are just now finding out how huge of a Jimmy fan Papa is.

Yeah, I was surprised how high Papa is on him. It's kind of a perverse thing, because Jimmy is a good, solid NFL starting QB, and that is a really, really valuable thing. He's pretty comfortably top-20. The trouble is that he's pretty clearly not top-10, won't ever be top-10, and a number of the guys behind him - even well behind him - have higher upside. I don't think a team can win championships paying Garoppolo $25 million-plus. If the Niners couldn't, with their QB-friendly offense and supporting cast, it's really unlikely to happen elsewhere. So then the question becomes, do you go with a solid guy who keeps you competitive, but probably not in the SB hunt, or do you swing for the fences? Obviously the Niners chose the latter path.

Cost-conscious teams that are set up (at least theoretically) to be competitive now with a solid QB, like the Colts and Commanders, made sense. But once those jobs were filled, it became really hard to see Jimmy going anywhere at his pricetag. I do still think the Seahawks are a possibility for Jimmy, but it's hard to see them trading something to get him rather than daring the Niners to keep him.

[Cactus Jack]

Read on Twitter