The Trey Lance thread

[Jikkle]

Rivals Coach Not Sold on Lance

NFL coach whose team plays 49ers this season calls it an ‘early Christmas gift if SF trades Jimmy G.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10043188-rival-coach-itd-be-a-christmas-gift-if-49ers-trade-jimmy-g-and-start-trey-lance

That coach could end up being right or he could end up eating his words by the time they play.

Just not enough sample size for teams to be afraid or not afraid of him.

Even the small sample size we got last year is arguably outdated since it's likely Shanahan will have the offense more geared around Lance so what we saw last season might not be exactly what we'll see this season.

[wco81]

What is the best case scenario for Lance?

He becomes a Josh Allen type of player, with big arm and accuracy that took a big jump over his college career, able to make plays by feet to set up huge scrambling plays.

Is this what Kyle really wants? He wants QBs to run his plays as designed, not freelance.

I'm not sure what he'd do if he had Jackson or Mahomes or Allen to play. Or for that matter, if Lance developed into that kind of player.

[CrimsonCrew]

I think the best case scenario for Lance is an elite processor who can also run. Not a knock on the guys you name, who probably are better processors than they get credit for, but you are right that they also have a lot more free-lancing to them than Shanahan presumably likes.

If Shanahan wanted that sort of player, then Fields was the clear choice in last year's draft. He shares Lance's physical ability but is much more accurate (or was in college). The difference between them - reportedly - is Lance's mental process. That's not meant to be a knock on Fields, who is reportedly a really intelligent guy with either a photographic or near-photographic memory. But he didn't always excel in structure, and raw intelligence isn't always indicative of football IQ. For example, Colin Kaepernick is a very smart guy (wonderlic of 38, which corresponds to the high 130s in IQ), but he wasn't football smart.

As I've said before, Lance will likely need to really excel at the mental piece to justify the draft capital spent on him. That will be his easiest path to success. If he can't do that at a very high level, his accuracy will have to improve dramatically from what he showed in college. That's certainly possible, but there aren't a lot of examples of it in the NFL. Granted the windows guys throw in today are much bigger than they were even ten years ago, so maybe accuracy is no longer as vital as it was.

Steve Young has given a number of interviews recently where he raves about Trey's ability to see the field and find the open guy. Let's hope he's right about that, because I think at least in the short term, we can expect at least a few errant throws per game.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

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[Jikkle]

What is the best case scenario for Lance?

He becomes a Josh Allen type of player, with big arm and accuracy that took a big jump over his college career, able to make plays by feet to set up huge scrambling plays.

Is this what Kyle really wants? He wants QBs to run his plays as designed, not freelance.

I'm not sure what he'd do if he had Jackson or Mahomes or Allen to play. Or for that matter, if Lance developed into that kind of player.

I'd say best case scenario for Lance is he becomes a Steve Young. A guy that's a great pocket passer that can be mobile when the situation calls for it. He'll have more designed runs than Young obviously but I don't think they drafted him to be a Lamar Jackson that throws a little more.

It's not that Kyle doesn't want freelancing but only if the play he designed isn't there.

I think Kyle over time has come to grips that no matter how well the play is designed there are multiple times in a game where someone doesn't do their job or the opposing DC has the right play call to counter what you called and you need your QB to just go out there and get it done to turn a negative play into a positive one. There are also games where at the end everything is on the line, you're not fooling anyone, and you just need your special players to be special.

Trey has a big arm but I don't think he's the freelancing kind of guy. In his one full season in college he had 0 int and I highlight that to say that speaks more to a guy playing within the system and not a guy just being a gunslinger.

[CrimsonCrew]

What is the best case scenario for Lance?

He becomes a Josh Allen type of player, with big arm and accuracy that took a big jump over his college career, able to make plays by feet to set up huge scrambling plays.

Is this what Kyle really wants? He wants QBs to run his plays as designed, not freelance.

I'm not sure what he'd do if he had Jackson or Mahomes or Allen to play. Or for that matter, if Lance developed into that kind of player.

I'd say best case scenario for Lance is he becomes a Steve Young. A guy that's a great pocket passer that can be mobile when the situation calls for it. He'll have more designed runs than Young obviously but I don't think they drafted him to be a Lamar Jackson that throws a little more.

It's not that Kyle doesn't want freelancing but only if the play he designed isn't there.

I think Kyle over time has come to grips that no matter how well the play is designed there are multiple times in a game where someone doesn't do their job or the opposing DC has the right play call to counter what you called and you need your QB to just go out there and get it done to turn a negative play into a positive one. There are also games where at the end everything is on the line, you're not fooling anyone, and you just need your special players to be special.

Trey has a big arm but I don't think he's the freelancing kind of guy. In his one full season in college he had 0 int and I highlight that to say that speaks more to a guy playing within the system and not a guy just being a gunslinger.

Gotta say, the no INTs stat is thrown out a bit, but I don't know how significant it is. Yes, Trey generally did a good job of not putting the ball in danger, but he threw a number of balls in that season that were in a defender's hands and were flat-out dropped.He's very lucky he didn't throw several INTs. He also had the luxury of frequently throwing to wide open receivers. Ball security was still a strength of his in college, and an area where he could absolutely surpass Jimmy fairly early on, but it's not like he never made bad decisions or tried to force the ball into too-tight windows.

[Jikkle]

What is the best case scenario for Lance?

He becomes a Josh Allen type of player, with big arm and accuracy that took a big jump over his college career, able to make plays by feet to set up huge scrambling plays.

Is this what Kyle really wants? He wants QBs to run his plays as designed, not freelance.

I'm not sure what he'd do if he had Jackson or Mahomes or Allen to play. Or for that matter, if Lance developed into that kind of player.

I'd say best case scenario for Lance is he becomes a Steve Young. A guy that's a great pocket passer that can be mobile when the situation calls for it. He'll have more designed runs than Young obviously but I don't think they drafted him to be a Lamar Jackson that throws a little more.

It's not that Kyle doesn't want freelancing but only if the play he designed isn't there.

I think Kyle over time has come to grips that no matter how well the play is designed there are multiple times in a game where someone doesn't do their job or the opposing DC has the right play call to counter what you called and you need your QB to just go out there and get it done to turn a negative play into a positive one. There are also games where at the end everything is on the line, you're not fooling anyone, and you just need your special players to be special.

Trey has a big arm but I don't think he's the freelancing kind of guy. In his one full season in college he had 0 int and I highlight that to say that speaks more to a guy playing within the system and not a guy just being a gunslinger.

Gotta say, the no INTs stat is thrown out a bit, but I don't know how significant it is. Yes, Trey generally did a good job of not putting the ball in danger, but he threw a number of balls in that season that were in a defender's hands and were flat-out dropped.He's very lucky he didn't throw several INTs. He also had the luxury of frequently throwing to wide open receivers. Ball security was still a strength of his in college, and an area where he could absolutely surpass Jimmy fairly early on, but it's not like he never made bad decisions or tried to force the ball into too-tight windows.

I mainly bring up the 0 INTs to illustrate that he wasn't some reckless gunslinger with the ball. The fact that he had 0 INTs had to have some luck involved as it's just plain impossible to not have a ball bounce off the hands of a receiver or a DB not come down with a catchable INT. Even removing the luck factor he's still likely to be a low turnover guy and it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up being a guy that usually has less than 10 picks a season.

[Pattersonca65]

I think the best case scenario for Lance is an elite processor who can also run. Not a knock on the guys you name, who probably are better processors than they get credit for, but you are right that they also have a lot more free-lancing to them than Shanahan presumably likes.

If Shanahan wanted that sort of player, then Fields was the clear choice in last year's draft. He shares Lance's physical ability but is much more accurate (or was in college). The difference between them - reportedly - is Lance's mental process. That's not meant to be a knock on Fields, who is reportedly a really intelligent guy with either a photographic or near-photographic memory. But he didn't always excel in structure, and raw intelligence isn't always indicative of football IQ. For example, Colin Kaepernick is a very smart guy (wonderlic of 38, which corresponds to the high 130s in IQ), but he wasn't football smart.

As I've said before, Lance will likely need to really excel at the mental piece to justify the draft capital spent on him. That will be his easiest path to success. If he can't do that at a very high level, his accuracy will have to improve dramatically from what he showed in college. That's certainly possible, but there aren't a lot of examples of it in the NFL. Granted the windows guys throw in today are much bigger than they were even ten years ago, so maybe accuracy is no longer as vital as it was.

Steve Young has given a number of interviews recently where he raves about Trey's ability to see the field and find the open guy. Let's hope he's right about that, because I think at least in the short term, we can expect at least a few errant throws per game.

One thing Fields struggled with out of college is dealing with the pass rush and was known to have poor pocket awareness. You can add Alex Smith to that list of really smart persons who can struggle when the bullets fly. I think in Colin's case he could figure this out in a classroom but in a game situation where things happen quickly under pressure he was unable to process quickly and he got rattled.

[Pattersonca65]

What is the best case scenario for Lance?

He becomes a Josh Allen type of player, with big arm and accuracy that took a big jump over his college career, able to make plays by feet to set up huge scrambling plays.

Is this what Kyle really wants? He wants QBs to run his plays as designed, not freelance.

I'm not sure what he'd do if he had Jackson or Mahomes or Allen to play. Or for that matter, if Lance developed into that kind of player.

I'd say best case scenario for Lance is he becomes a Steve Young. A guy that's a great pocket passer that can be mobile when the situation calls for it. He'll have more designed runs than Young obviously but I don't think they drafted him to be a Lamar Jackson that throws a little more.

It's not that Kyle doesn't want freelancing but only if the play he designed isn't there.

I think Kyle over time has come to grips that no matter how well the play is designed there are multiple times in a game where someone doesn't do their job or the opposing DC has the right play call to counter what you called and you need your QB to just go out there and get it done to turn a negative play into a positive one. There are also games where at the end everything is on the line, you're not fooling anyone, and you just need your special players to be special.

Trey has a big arm but I don't think he's the freelancing kind of guy. In his one full season in college he had 0 int and I highlight that to say that speaks more to a guy playing within the system and not a guy just being a gunslinger.

I don't see him becoming a Steve Young guy. Steve Young was a west coast guy. He exceled at those west coast passes. He could hit those short and midterm timing routes with great accuracy. While it is possible I am not sure Lance will ever become that kind of QB. I see him more as a downfield thrower.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

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[Jikkle]

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[Bingo_AlphaMan]

TREY LANCE
QB, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Pro Football Focus' Doug Kyed reports the 49ers "believe Lance can be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but they’re entering this season with a degree of uncertainty about how he’ll play."

Lance, who hasn't played a full season since 2019 at North Dakota State, is expected to take over for Jimmy Garoppolo this season. Kyed said the 49ers front office and the team's coaches see great promise in the young, mobile quarterback, but a somewhat rough start to his time as San Francisco's unquestioned starter would hardly be a shock. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported this offseason that there were lingering concerns about Lance's experience as a passer as he heads into his sophomore season. Lance, Schefter said, "is greener than people realize, Trey Lance is going to need more work than people realize." By all accounts, Lance has put in the work to improve his passing mechanics and understanding of Kyle Shanahan's offense since the end of the 2021 season. His rushing prowess alone makes him a potential top-five fantasy quarterback. His questionable passing acumen could present issues for Niners pass catchers like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, however.
SOURCE: PFF.com

Aug 5, 2022, 9:06 AM ET

[Jikkle]

TREY LANCE
QB, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Pro Football Focus' Doug Kyed reports the 49ers "believe Lance can be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but they’re entering this season with a degree of uncertainty about how he’ll play."

Lance, who hasn't played a full season since 2019 at North Dakota State, is expected to take over for Jimmy Garoppolo this season. Kyed said the 49ers front office and the team's coaches see great promise in the young, mobile quarterback, but a somewhat rough start to his time as San Francisco's unquestioned starter would hardly be a shock. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported this offseason that there were lingering concerns about Lance's experience as a passer as he heads into his sophomore season. Lance, Schefter said, "is greener than people realize, Trey Lance is going to need more work than people realize." By all accounts, Lance has put in the work to improve his passing mechanics and understanding of Kyle Shanahan's offense since the end of the 2021 season. His rushing prowess alone makes him a potential top-five fantasy quarterback. His questionable passing acumen could present issues for Niners pass catchers like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, however.
SOURCE: PFF.com

Aug 5, 2022, 9:06 AM ET

I've felt it'll probably be another couple of offseasons before he hits his peak in terms of his mechanics.

My expectation is this year will be bumpy with a lot of wow and a lot of cringe but he'll ultimately prove to be a net positive over Jimmy especially late in the season.

The following season I expect his play to become more consistent but still with bumps in the road and in his 4th season I think that's when he'll really take off and hit his stride as a QB.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

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[Bingo_AlphaMan]

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[Bingo_AlphaMan]

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[CrimsonCrew]

Decent first preseason game. The TD pass was a good read and throw to Gray deep, precisely the sort of play we so rarely saw from Garoppolo. First couple passes were high, with a really nice catch by Dwelley who had to extend to bring it in, and Trey leading Gray out of bounds on a deep out. Not much to go on, and the OL flubbed a couple blocks along the way, but nothing super worrisome.

Lance will likely need to make some big plays with his arms and legs if he's going to match Garoppolo's pre-injury form from last year.

[arich35]

Decent first preseason game. The TD pass was a good read and throw to Gray deep, precisely the sort of play we so rarely saw from Garoppolo. First couple passes were high, with a really nice catch by Dwelley who had to extend to bring it in, and Trey leading Gray out of bounds on a deep out. Not much to go on, and the OL flubbed a couple blocks along the way, but nothing super worrisome.

Lance will likely need to make some big plays with his arms and legs if he's going to match Garoppolo's pre-injury form from last year.

On his run/scramble it seemed like he stepped up in the pocket and still looked downfield before tucking and running which is nice to see

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

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[Jikkle]

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Watching it again his mechanics in the pocket were really good.

Small sample size so I'm not getting reading too much into it but his pocket presence looked really good. Seemed like he felt and reacted to pressure well.

I just think the main concern with Lance is can he hit that 3rd and 6 pass to move the chains mostly consistently or is he going to miss enough on that to be an issue. I think we'll have to live with some bad misses but hopefully it won't be misses that are devasting.

I feel confident about the rest of his game though especially if he actually does slide. Not to say I think the rest of his game is perfect but we'll just live and die by how accurate he ultimately is.

I'd say if he can stay above the 60% mark we'll be in good shape. If he's somewhere around the 65% mark I'd say we're in great shape but I suspect he'll be in that 58%-61% range this season.