The Trey Lance thread

[CrimsonCrew]

With all the talk about Lance's improved mechanics after working with Christensen and Mahomes, I am curious to see how it translates to actual game play. Having a tighter spiral is cool but I want to see if the improved mechanics also improves his accuracy and touch. Although it is encouraging that he doesn't seem to experience the arm fatigue after practicing that used to be an issue for him. And mechanics don't necessarily help being able to see the field better, faster processing of what he sees, and improving the timing of his throws.

Sure, the mechanics and accuracy are just step one in the journey to good, much less elite, QB play. But he's just got to make the gimme throws if he wants to be the guy in this system. Shanahan is not going to put him out there as his starter if he can't hit the layups.

[Jikkle]

Lance's biggest to me is his mechanics and not his ability to processing abilities.

I don't think he's unable to process the field I just think he needs experience doing it. My impression is that it's not that he's not correctly processing things it's just that he doesn't trust what he sees and that's something that'll come with experience.

It was reported that his S2 cognition test wasn't that far off from Purdy's so it doesn't appear he has some physical limitation in that regard that would prevent him from operating at a high level mentally.

He needs to iron out his mechanics and make the routine throws because yes we want him to process the field but even if he processes the field perfectly it won't matter if the ball sails 20 yards over the intended target's head. So you really need both processing and mechanics in tandem. The reason processing is usually a bigger concern is that it's one of those things that you either have or you don't have whereas mechanics can be improved with work.

So far the reports are encouraging and it's safe to say he's better today than he was last year at this time but excitement should be tempered because mechanics aren't just some quick fix that will be perfect after a couple months of work. He should be better but he'll still be a work in progress.

[Pattersonca65]

Not sure how one can tell what Lance's issues are regarding process. It ir really comes down to inexperience. It is hard enough for an experienced college QB to pick it It up let alone one with hardly much college QB. The QB tests are good to a point but even they can't ultimately measure what a QB does under the pressure when on the field. Only time will tell with Lance. I see that as a bigger question mark then his mechanics

[Pattersonca65]

Not sure how one can tell what Lance's issues are regarding process. It ir really comes down to inexperience. It is hard enough for an experienced college QB to pick it It up let alone one with hardly much college QB. The QB tests are good to a point but even they can't ultimately measure what a QB does under the pressure when on the field. Only time will tell with Lance. I see that as a bigger question mark then his mechanics

[CrimsonCrew]

Not sure how one can tell what Lance's issues are regarding process. It ir really comes down to inexperience. It is hard enough for an experienced college QB to pick it It up let alone one with hardly much college QB. The QB tests are good to a point but even they can't ultimately measure what a QB does under the pressure when on the field. Only time will tell with Lance. I see that as a bigger question mark then his mechanics

I agree you can't take processing on an NFL field for granted. The S2 seems like a more effective way of measuring it than, say, the Wonderlic, which has a very tight timing component, but not in the tenths-of-a-second way that matters on an NFL field. But that's still not a full answer to whether a guy can make the right decision and deliver a ball accurately while taking a hit from a 270-pound DE. It is far from a certainty that Lance can or will be able to do that in the NFL.

When I look at a QB, I kind of have steps in terms of the evaluation, from simplest to most complex. To me, simplest is the throwing stuff. The most basic question for a QB: in ideal circumstances, is the ball going to get to the right spot basically every time? If that answer is a no, then you've got to resolve that before moving on to the next question. That's not to say relatively inaccurate QBs can't still flourish in the league. You can backfill for a "no" answer with elite athleticism, big play ability, etc. But probably not in a Shanahan offense, at least the way it's looked the past few years.

Once you have the physical element, then you move on to the higher-level mental piece. I'm quite confident Lance will know/learn the offense as well as anyone else based on what I've read about his intelligence and work ethic. I'm somewhat less confident, but still cautiously optimistic, that he can learn to recognize what is open in the NFL vs. NDSU, thus cutting down on some of his indecision. But those nuances can be very fine and make a big difference. Peyton Manning was so great because he could see something that didn't look open to most guys, but he could picture in his mind how it would look in a half-second when the ball arrived. Then we get to the even higher-level processing speed, mental fortitude, and all those really tough to quantify things that tend to be the difference between the good and the truly great players. Really hard to say right now if Lance has any of that, though it might be hard to say even if we'd seen him playing for two years.

[Pattersonca65]

Not sure how one can tell what Lance's issues are regarding process. It ir really comes down to inexperience. It is hard enough for an experienced college QB to pick it It up let alone one with hardly much college QB. The QB tests are good to a point but even they can't ultimately measure what a QB does under the pressure when on the field. Only time will tell with Lance. I see that as a bigger question mark then his mechanics

I agree you can't take processing on an NFL field for granted. The S2 seems like a more effective way of measuring it than, say, the Wonderlic, which has a very tight timing component, but not in the tenths-of-a-second way that matters on an NFL field. But that's still not a full answer to whether a guy can make the right decision and deliver a ball accurately while taking a hit from a 270-pound DE. It is far from a certainty that Lance can or will be able to do that in the NFL.

When I look at a QB, I kind of have steps in terms of the evaluation, from simplest to most complex. To me, simplest is the throwing stuff. The most basic question for a QB: in ideal circumstances, is the ball going to get to the right spot basically every time? If that answer is a no, then you've got to resolve that before moving on to the next question. That's not to say relatively inaccurate QBs can't still flourish in the league. You can backfill for a "no" answer with elite athleticism, big play ability, etc. But probably not in a Shanahan offense, at least the way it's looked the past few years.

Once you have the physical element, then you move on to the higher-level mental piece. I'm quite confident Lance will know/learn the offense as well as anyone else based on what I've read about his intelligence and work ethic. I'm somewhat less confident, but still cautiously optimistic, that he can learn to recognize what is open in the NFL vs. NDSU, thus cutting down on some of his indecision. But those nuances can be very fine and make a big difference. Peyton Manning was so great because he could see something that didn't look open to most guys, but he could picture in his mind how it would look in a half-second when the ball arrived. Then we get to the even higher-level processing speed, mental fortitude, and all those really tough to quantify things that tend to be the difference between the good and the truly great players. Really hard to say right now if Lance has any of that, though it might be hard to say even if we'd seen him playing for two years.

I am confident Lance will have the playbook memorized because of the reasons you say. It is the mental aspects on the field. It is the mental processing on the field in quick time. I am also confident Alex Smith and Kaepernick knew the playbook. They were both really smart players but both in different ways had issues processing in the field that limited how good they were. It isn't a great/poor thing. The question is whether he can be good enough at the NFL level to be the franchise QB to elite level the team drafted.

[CrimsonCrew]

Not sure how one can tell what Lance's issues are regarding process. It ir really comes down to inexperience. It is hard enough for an experienced college QB to pick it It up let alone one with hardly much college QB. The QB tests are good to a point but even they can't ultimately measure what a QB does under the pressure when on the field. Only time will tell with Lance. I see that as a bigger question mark then his mechanics

I agree you can't take processing on an NFL field for granted. The S2 seems like a more effective way of measuring it than, say, the Wonderlic, which has a very tight timing component, but not in the tenths-of-a-second way that matters on an NFL field. But that's still not a full answer to whether a guy can make the right decision and deliver a ball accurately while taking a hit from a 270-pound DE. It is far from a certainty that Lance can or will be able to do that in the NFL.

When I look at a QB, I kind of have steps in terms of the evaluation, from simplest to most complex. To me, simplest is the throwing stuff. The most basic question for a QB: in ideal circumstances, is the ball going to get to the right spot basically every time? If that answer is a no, then you've got to resolve that before moving on to the next question. That's not to say relatively inaccurate QBs can't still flourish in the league. You can backfill for a "no" answer with elite athleticism, big play ability, etc. But probably not in a Shanahan offense, at least the way it's looked the past few years.

Once you have the physical element, then you move on to the higher-level mental piece. I'm quite confident Lance will know/learn the offense as well as anyone else based on what I've read about his intelligence and work ethic. I'm somewhat less confident, but still cautiously optimistic, that he can learn to recognize what is open in the NFL vs. NDSU, thus cutting down on some of his indecision. But those nuances can be very fine and make a big difference. Peyton Manning was so great because he could see something that didn't look open to most guys, but he could picture in his mind how it would look in a half-second when the ball arrived. Then we get to the even higher-level processing speed, mental fortitude, and all those really tough to quantify things that tend to be the difference between the good and the truly great players. Really hard to say right now if Lance has any of that, though it might be hard to say even if we'd seen him playing for two years.

I am confident Lance will have the playbook memorized because of the reasons you say. It is the mental aspects on the field. It is the mental processing on the field in quick time. I am also confident Alex Smith and Kaepernick knew the playbook. They were both really smart players but both in different ways had issues processing in the field that limited how good they were. It isn't a great/poor thing. The question is whether he can be good enough at the NFL level to be the franchise QB to elite level the team drafted.

Yeah, that's my point in terms of moving from the simpler things to the more complex in the evaluation. Physically, can you make the easy throws consistently? Then, can you make the harder throws consistently? Then, can you challenge with your legs? Then, can you put the team on your shoulders and make dynamic plays with your arm and legs in crunch time? Mentally, can you master the playbook? Then, can you make the right reads in the flow of the game? Then, do you recognize guys who are open by NFL standards (i.e., likely covered when you make the throw, but going to be open when the ball arrives)? Then, do you have instincts to avoid the pass rush? Then, can you do all of that quickly with huge bodies flying past or at you?

This isn't necessarily a reverse ranking of difficulty, and is not exhaustive, but a loose ranking of ascending difficulty/nuance. And as said, knowing the playbook is baseline just to set foot on the field. All the other mental stuff is much harder to show, and Lance certainly hasn't done it consistently yet.

[CrimsonCrew]

Warner reviewing some Justin Fields tape. I'm posting this because many, including myself, preferred Fields to Lance. What strikes me is that Fields looks a lot like Lance throwing the ball. Inaccurate as a general proposition. Fields was incredibly accurate as a college passer. As long as he had time to set up, the ball almost always went where he wanted it to. Here, he's struggling even to throw catchable balls, much less use elite placement. Good reminder that overthinking can really contribute to inaccuracy....

Watch on YouTube

[wco81]

He might have been more accurate in college because those OSU WRs were getting quick and big separation.

If he has to anticipate where the separation will be and throw to the spot he thinks the WRs will be able to catch the ball, maybe he's not as accurate.

Also, terrible offensive line so how often was he able to release with normal motion?

[CrimsonCrew]

He might have been more accurate in college because those OSU WRs were getting quick and big separation.

If he has to anticipate where the separation will be and throw to the spot he thinks the WRs will be able to catch the ball, maybe he's not as accurate.

Also, terrible offensive line so how often was he able to release with normal motion?

Yeah, even as I said they should take Fields, I said big caveat because of the team and situation he was going into. It's a fair point about Ohio State, but you could say the same things about Lance's receivers relative to their competition, and he was noticeably less accurate than Fields. I think I watched every pass Fields threw in his last year in college, and he was really accurate. Granted, he wasn't throwing across the middle all that much, but he definitely made some really accurate throws into tight coverage throughout the season. Definitely a more natural college thrower than Lance.

[Pattersonca65]

He might have been more accurate in college because those OSU WRs were getting quick and big separation.

If he has to anticipate where the separation will be and throw to the spot he thinks the WRs will be able to catch the ball, maybe he's not as accurate.

Also, terrible offensive line so how often was he able to release with normal motion?

Yeah, even as I said they should take Fields, I said big caveat because of the team and situation he was going into. It's a fair point about Ohio State, but you could say the same things about Lance's receivers relative to their competition, and he was noticeably less accurate than Fields. I think I watched every pass Fields threw in his last year in college, and he was really accurate. Granted, he wasn't throwing across the middle all that much, but he definitely made some really accurate throws into tight coverage throughout the season. Definitely a more natural college thrower than Lance.

it is no surprise the success rate for first round QB draft picks in the NFL is low. The game is much faster and the openings are smaller. So many of these players that were dominant in college can never make the leap forward.

[CrimsonCrew]

Yeah, and Lance is still a huge question mark in that area. It's not enough just to know the playbook, which I trust both Lance and Fields can do. It's being able to process quickly and under pressure, so see the field not just as it is, but as it will be when the ball arrives, sensing pressure and making small adjustments to avoid it while still making plays. That stuff is what ultimately makes the difference between good and great, and it's really hard to project.

[CrimsonCrew]

Albert Breer now weighing in on Trey Lance:

"I think if Brock Purdy were unable to take the first snap of training camp, and that's certainly a possibility—he's on a track to play Week 1, but they're still building the strength in his arm back up—I think Sam Donald might take the first snap of training camp," Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer recently told Colin Cowherd. "Now, it doesn't mean Trey Lance can't come back and work his way forward, but I think that they feel like they've already given this guy a lot of chances."

Two main thoughts about this one.

First, how can anyone say that Trey Lance has been given a lot of chances? Sure, it's not the organization's fault that he was injured - other than Shanahan's bizarre playcalling early in the season last year. But the reality is that he got very little chance year one after Jimmy became the starter, and the chance he was given in year two fell apart almost immediately after one game in brutal conditions. They should have seen him in practice quite a lot, but word is that his injury to his throwing hand affected him basically from 2021 preseason through this past season. And he's barely started any actual games.

Second, if Trey Lance has been given a lot of chances, what does that mean for Darnold? Sure, it hasn't been with this team, but Darnold has had nothing but chances. 55 starts over five seasons on two different teams. 21-34 record. 61 TDs to 55 INTs. He has fumbled 35 times (only lost 13). 7.5% sack rate. Never a QBR above 50, and a PFF score of 62.2 last year in what people consider his best season. He may have shown flashes occasionally, but he has never been good on a consistent basis. In his last start, he went 5 of 15 for 43 yards and two INTs - though his team still managed to pull out a win somehow. And this is the guy we're going to turn the team over to instead of the unproven guy we traded a boatload of picks for? If something happens to Purdy and that is what happens, Darnold better go unbeaten....

[Pattersonca65]

Albert Breer now weighing in on Trey Lance:

"I think if Brock Purdy were unable to take the first snap of training camp, and that's certainly a possibility—he's on a track to play Week 1, but they're still building the strength in his arm back up—I think Sam Donald might take the first snap of training camp," Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer recently told Colin Cowherd. "Now, it doesn't mean Trey Lance can't come back and work his way forward, but I think that they feel like they've already given this guy a lot of chances."

Two main thoughts about this one.

First, how can anyone say that Trey Lance has been given a lot of chances? Sure, it's not the organization's fault that he was injured - other than Shanahan's bizarre playcalling early in the season last year. But the reality is that he got very little chance year one after Jimmy became the starter, and the chance he was given in year two fell apart almost immediately after one game in brutal conditions. They should have seen him in practice quite a lot, but word is that his injury to his throwing hand affected him basically from 2021 preseason through this past season. And he's barely started any actual games.

Second, if Trey Lance has been given a lot of chances, what does that mean for Darnold? Sure, it hasn't been with this team, but Darnold has had nothing but chances. 55 starts over five seasons on two different teams. 21-34 record. 61 TDs to 55 INTs. He has fumbled 35 times (only lost 13). 7.5% sack rate. Never a QBR above 50, and a PFF score of 62.2 last year in what people consider his best season. He may have shown flashes occasionally, but he has never been good on a consistent basis. In his last start, he went 5 of 15 for 43 yards and two INTs - though his team still managed to pull out a win somehow. And this is the guy we're going to turn the team over to instead of the unproven guy we traded a boatload of picks for? If something happens to Purdy and that is what happens, Darnold better go unbeaten....

When Breer says he has been given plenty of chances does he mean chances to play in games? That didn't occur to me as Lance has hardly played. It wasn't what I initially assumed but I could be wrong. Breer summarized in this article how little Lance has actually played in the last five years. It really does stand out how little he has played. There have been several stories published recently by a few writers. I think it may be overblown and of course some of it is surmising or conjecture. At the same time with all this coming out from multiple sources it does appear Lance's status on the team has dropped since he was drafted and handed the started job last off-season. But as I stated before I don't know what kind of expectations they had for him so soon given his lack of experience coming in. Clearly they didn't see Jimmy G as an option moving forward and were expecting to throw whoever they drafted as a QB to the wolves fairly quickly which is difficult when it is built around trying to win a Super Bowl now.

[wco81]

The way Shanahan was calling plays when Lance was playing, he may have already written Trey off.

But with emergence of Purdy, Shanahan may have been done with Trey.

Purdy's injury may be the only reason Lance has a chance to compete.

[CrimsonCrew]

I don't know what Breer means. It's just bizarre to argue that the team wants to go away from Lance because he hasn't taken advantage of his chances in five starts, and that their pivot is to Darnold, who has eleven times as many starts and not much more to show for it.

I think this is mostly people jumping on the Schefter wagon after he said a similar thing on the McAfee show. I'm not certain what to make of that. Schefter is arguably the most connected guy in the league, so you have to take anything he says seriously. That said, if you actually watch the clip, he seems to be making an educated guess about where things stand.

He said there wasn't a market for Lance, but that could mean a lot of things. I'm sure there could have been a market if we were asking for a third-round pick in return, but I'm pretty confident we were asking for something more like a first. Likely there wasn't a market at that asking price.

He mentions what many have speculated about, that the team traded up with Mac Jones in mind, but then Lance won them over. I think that's entirely possible and even likely given what we've heard from the FO, though again, it raises serious questions about their process in that draft. On a number of levels (trading up as early as they did; trading up with Mac Jones in mind when he fell into the teens; trading up without a clear target or having done all the scouting work, etc.).

In terms of the Darnold vs. Lance talk, that does appear to be him just reading the tea leaves, and it's possible he's right, but I sure hope the FO isn't that dumb. If Lance totally flames out, he would effectively be Darnold. So why wouldn't you see if Lance can be more first? Not going to get too uptight about any of this, because the national media has basically never been right about Lance and the Niners, but I would love to see the team support Lance a little more....

[CrimsonCrew]

The way Shanahan was calling plays when Lance was playing, he may have already written Trey off.

But with emergence of Purdy, Shanahan may have been done with Trey.

Purdy's injury may be the only reason Lance has a chance to compete.

I think the writing is on the wall that the team views Purdy as the guy if he's healthy. But you still need to take advantage of this time when Purdy isn't fully healthy to get a good long look at Trey.

Lance has never been an accurate thrower, but they should have known that when they drafted him. He wasn't accurate in college. That said, there are reliable reports that his finger injury from his rookie season lingered and impacted his throwing in his second year. If that's true - and I think enough people have commented on how he threw the ball better in his first camp and in OTAs this year than he did at any point last year that we can accept something was going on - then you've got to give him a chance to show what he can do with a fully functioning throwing hand.

The handling of Lance has been awful almost from the beginning. I don't have a problem with Garoppolo beating him out year one. It was a good team Garoppolo was a solid QB, and Lance needed to learn. But everything about year two was awful. They had no viable backup other than lucking into Purdy - prior to Jimmy's unexpected return. Then they had this guy who DESPERATELY needed reps, and they gave him 16 attempts in the preseason. He didn't even play in the second preseason game. WTF? Get the guy out there and let him get some seasoning before throwing him into live action in a game that matters. I don't doubt we'll see a similar dynamic this year, and it will infuriate me again. He should be getting a full half in preseason games, even if Purdy is back and playing. He just needs time at the helm when the bullets are flying, and our approach to last preseason squandered an opportunity for growth.

That was compounded by Shanahan having such a tight leash on him to start the season. And maybe Lance didn't deserve more opportunities as a passer, but you made the pick and you've just got to bite the bullet and see how the kid handles it at a certain point.

[Pattersonca65]

I don't know what Breer means. It's just bizarre to argue that the team wants to go away from Lance because he hasn't taken advantage of his chances in five starts, and that their pivot is to Darnold, who has eleven times as many starts and not much more to show for it.

I think this is mostly people jumping on the Schefter wagon after he said a similar thing on the McAfee show. I'm not certain what to make of that. Schefter is arguably the most connected guy in the league, so you have to take anything he says seriously. That said, if you actually watch the clip, he seems to be making an educated guess about where things stand.

He said there wasn't a market for Lance, but that could mean a lot of things. I'm sure there could have been a market if we were asking for a third-round pick in return, but I'm pretty confident we were asking for something more like a first. Likely there wasn't a market at that asking price.

He mentions what many have speculated about, that the team traded up with Mac Jones in mind, but then Lance won them over. I think that's entirely possible and even likely given what we've heard from the FO, though again, it raises serious questions about their process in that draft. On a number of levels (trading up as early as they did; trading up with Mac Jones in mind when he fell into the teens; trading up without a clear target or having done all the scouting work, etc.).

In terms of the Darnold vs. Lance talk, that does appear to be him just reading the tea leaves, and it's possible he's right, but I sure hope the FO isn't that dumb. If Lance totally flames out, he would effectively be Darnold. So why wouldn't you see if Lance can be more first? Not going to get too uptight about any of this, because the national media has basically never been right about Lance and the Niners, but I would love to see the team support Lance a little more....

I think that is very much the case. There is a market for Lance. I am sure that the 49ers want alot in return more than teams are willing to give up. I suspect in part aside from his contract that is why there were no takers for Jimmy G the offseason where they were looking to move him.

[Pattersonca65]

https://www.sfgate.com/49ers/article/49ers-trey-lance-chances-darnold-training-camp-18172982.php

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

Trey Lance

ESPN’s Nick Wagoner said the 49ers would likely turn down a “substantial” trade offer for Trey Lance.

The team’s quarterback saga will surely rage on in the weeks before the regular season kicks off, with Brock Purdy (elbow) back in action with some workload restrictions and Sam Darnold drawing comparisons to Steve Young. Wagoner suggested the 49ers are stung by losing three QBs to injury last season and want to keep three signal callers on the roster, including Lance. We’ll see if the Niners — who reportedly looked to deal Lance in the spring — will turn down a generous trade offer from a QB-needy team in August.
Source: ESPN.com