The Trey Lance thread

[wco81]

If Purdy plays well again, they're going to have to salvage whatever draft assets they can get for Lance.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

My order was Fields, Lance, Jones ... but I will admit that the epilepsy news pushed Fields down to being juuuuuust above Lance. Lance on potential is clearly at the top of those 3, but Fields delivered against really tough defenses at the top level of college football. The fact that Fields almost made it to 12 is pretty annoying ... it wouldn't have cost much to move up to 11 and certainly less than 2 1st round picks.

Now we wait and watch, and hope those 1st round picks are really late in the first and that Jimmy plays so well we can trade him away for one of those 1sts back.

I was banging on the table for Fields. I almost cried when the news broke out that we were planning on drafting Mac Jones over Fields. So much so that when we selected Lance I wasn’t upset but just relieved that it wasn’t Jones. But underneath this whole hidden anger was that we didn’t draft fields.

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[Bingo_AlphaMan]

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[Harry Palmer]

Wow, you guys are definitely more certain about what TL is and isn’t after, what, 10 quarters of play in his career, 4 of those in a monsoon, than I am,

And coming in as a clearly defined ‘got talent, needs reps’ guy. The improvements he’s made with JC seem to be translating to the field, ie he’s not (so far) reverting to that loop as people feared once the action began. Still, playing against other teams might up the pressure and see the return of the loop hitch, we’ll see. I’m not on Team Trey or Team Brock, but the way the Niners have handled the whole Trey thing is like a working model of how to not develop an understood to be raw qb. His most significant improvement came when he went off reservation and arranged his own sessions with Christensen.

I have more, I guess, affection for Brock, but on paper I think our best future, our highest upside remains the reason they moved up to get Trey, so…but maybe Brock is another Montana/Brady type where the sum truly transcends the parts. Love his mindset and demeanour.

But lastly, this idea that if Darnold is # 2, trade Trey for w/e we can get…have you guys been watching the Niners in recent years? You really think we should lighten the qb room? For what, the measly return? Or just for your own peace of mind? You think the lesson of recent years is 2 starter-quality qb’s on the roster is more than enough? I’m not seeing it. Decisions made out of frustration or for fans peace of mind don’t tend to lead to better outcomes.

[Jikkle]

Unless you get a strong offer there really isn't a reason to trade Lance.

None of the QBs on the roster have the cleanest history in terms of health. I'd say the odds of the backup playing are greater than the odds of the backup not playing just given the history of the team under Shanahan which I think there has been only one season where a QB has played every game.

Not to mention there is no reason to completely hitch the wagon to Purdy yet. It's not like he's a 3+ year vet that you know what you're getting from him but a guy that's played like not even a half seasons worth of games. Don't get me wrong I think he should start and I don't think he'll fail but I certainly can't say that's a certain. Maybe defenses coordinators will figure him out better and he'll be just another limited QB that needs Kyle to win on the playcalls to have success.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that Purdy misses a couple weeks due to injury and Lance comes in and balls out like Purdy did last season and his raw talent will shine through. Not saying it's going to happen but I wouldn't fall out of my seat if it did.

[Jikkle]

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Seeing how they handled Lance I just doubt Fields would be much better under Shanahan honestly.

Shanahan just has 0 interest in really developing a rookie QB and the reason he loves Purdy is he was seasoned compared to most rookies coming out and his S2 cognition score puts him among the elites mentally so he can run the offense at that high mental level Kyle loves.

Kyle would've done with Fields with what he did with Lance and just run him into the ground and he'd be hurt a lot.

[Pattersonca65]

Wow, you guys are definitely more certain about what TL is and isn’t after, what, 10 quarters of play in his career, 4 of those in a monsoon, than I am,

And coming in as a clearly defined ‘got talent, needs reps’ guy. The improvements he’s made with JC seem to be translating to the field, ie he’s not (so far) reverting to that loop as people feared once the action began. Still, playing against other teams might up the pressure and see the return of the loop hitch, we’ll see. I’m not on Team Trey or Team Brock, but the way the Niners have handled the whole Trey thing is like a working model of how to not develop an understood to be raw qb. His most significant improvement came when he went off reservation and arranged his own sessions with Christensen.

I have more, I guess, affection for Brock, but on paper I think our best future, our highest upside remains the reason they moved up to get Trey, so…but maybe Brock is another Montana/Brady type where the sum truly transcends the parts. Love his mindset and demeanour.

But lastly, this idea that if Darnold is # 2, trade Trey for w/e we can get…have you guys been watching the Niners in recent years? You really think we should lighten the qb room? For what, the measly return? Or just for your own peace of mind? You think the lesson of recent years is 2 starter-quality qb’s on the roster is more than enough? I’m not seeing it. Decisions made out of frustration or for fans peace of mind don’t tend to lead to better outcomes.

I am not one of those who thinks that the 49ers should trade him this year. From an outsider's perspective, seems they should let this year play out. This following offseason they are going to have to make a decision however with Lance if Purdy is still the starter. My whole question when they drafted him was how were they going to handle him. The 49ers sent a clear signal when they drafted lance that Jimmy G was not their guy moving forward but trying to move on from Jimmy G after one year and expecting Lance to QB a team with super bowl aspirations seemed like a stretch given Lance's overall age and lack of experience. The team was clearly disappointed in his progress last offseason. It appears they might have had unrealistic expectations. The work on his mechanics were good to see but there is much more he needs to do. At some point the high upside part starts to fade.

[Harry Palmer]

Not really sure if Mooch has a lot of insider access in 9ers land with the current FO, but if he does his latest statements would seem to support the position that Lance’s future with the Niners kinda hinges on some kind of injury in the near future. Worse, it basically seems to be a case where the reason it can’t/won’t work is because of the combination of uniquely raw/needs reps with a ‘win now’ team timeline. If that is the case, it’s not a great statement about the FO’s ability to think a step or two ahead.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

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[CrimsonCrew]

Mixed bag. Cohn is not at all neutral on this one, as he's made some pretty absurd statements about Lance ("best prospect since Elway!") that look really dumb right about now - okay, they looked really dumb at the time, too. The not throwing much cuts both ways. On the one hand, it's true that that is not how this offense runs. But we're in the preseason, when you're working on certain things. If we had several run-run-pass-punt drives, we'd all be grumbling about how they didn't throw more. I think it was the right decision to give Trey a chance to show what he can do as a passer, and frankly, he fell on his face.

There were some explanations for that poor play. The OL was really bad. He was playing with receivers who likely don't even make the team. But he was hesitant. He had opportunities he didn't take. And when he was decisive, he put the ball in trouble repeatedly. He only made two or three nice throws in rhythm.

I'm still not giving up on Lance, but at some point he's got to do something to show that he's the guy. Purdy did that when he had the chance. If Lance can't, then there's no way he can or should knock Purdy out of that starting role.

[Pattersonca65]

Mixed bag. Cohn is not at all neutral on this one, as he's made some pretty absurd statements about Lance ("best prospect since Elway!") that look really dumb right about now - okay, they looked really dumb at the time, too. The not throwing much cuts both ways. On the one hand, it's true that that is not how this offense runs. But we're in the preseason, when you're working on certain things. If we had several run-run-pass-punt drives, we'd all be grumbling about how they didn't throw more. I think it was the right decision to give Trey a chance to show what he can do as a passer, and frankly, he fell on his face.

There were some explanations for that poor play. The OL was really bad. He was playing with receivers who likely don't even make the team. But he was hesitant. He had opportunities he didn't take. And when he was decisive, he put the ball in trouble repeatedly. He only made two or three nice throws in rhythm.

I'm still not giving up on Lance, but at some point he's got to do something to show that he's the guy. Purdy did that when he had the chance. If Lance can't, then there's no way he can or should knock Purdy out of that starting role.

Cohn makes some ridiculous comments. Clearly Shanahan did not trust Lance to throw the ball last year before getting injured. I saw a stat somewhere that Lance had the least pass attempts or something like that. Not only that, there were passing third down situations last year where all he needed to do was a convert a short completion for a first down and Shanahan called a run or sweep play instead of letting Lance drop back. I am not sure where Shanahan was headed last year. Was he hoping that he could open up the passing game as the season went on? I am not writing Lance off as many fans have, but he has got to start to show something. Yesterday was an all around bad preseason game, we'll see what next week brings. If Purdy regresses this team might be in real trouble. While I haven't written Lance off yet, I also don't have alot of confidence he can take this team anywhere if Purdy can't.

[wco81]

National media is all going in on Lance, virtually pronouncing the end of his career. Or at least his career with the 49ers.

All on one half of the first preseason game.

But apparently he has a rookie contract option coming up and it would be too much of a cap hit to pick up.

Because he's getting paid like the #3 pick of the draft, 49ers can't keep him unless he's a starter and that seems unlikely now.

Supposedly Trey's MVP odds at 25-1 is actually better than Purdy's odds at 50-1.

[CrimsonCrew]

National media has had it out for Lance unlike any prospect I can really ever recall. Shoot, Zach Wilson was taken before him, has played a heck of a lot more, and totally flamed out, and he didn't catch all the heat that Lance has from the national media.

My theory has been, and continues to be, that a ton of guys in the media guaranteed that Mac Jones was the pick, and they got embarrassed when Lance was the pick. Even though it isn't logical to take that out on Lance, many of them seem to have done so. They seem to relish his struggles.

Lance has had some really tough breaks. It's not his fault Covid wiped out basically a full college season and left him remarkably raw. It's not his fault that John and Kyle traded up to #3 months before the draft without having actually scouted these guys and not knowing who they were targeting. It's not his fault they gave up three first round picks to take him. It's not his fault that, when the FO did scout him, they apparently didn't realize that he was going to be a major project. It's not his fault he got hurt (though the ankle was a play where he did a crappy job of protecting himself, so maybe he's a little responsible for that).

But as with Alex Smith early in his career, you can have tons of legitimate excuses for poor performance, but eventually, as said above, you've got to show that you can play in the league. Trey hasn't done that. Looks like, barring at least one injury and maybe two, he won't get the chance to do that.

[CrimsonCrew]

Re: the contract, I'm fairly certain there is not any sort of escalator this season. If we had cut him before June 1, he would have had a very large dead cap hit. It's more manageable now, but only because we could spread it across two seasons. Barring a trade, he's almost certainly going to stay on the roster this year and next because we don't save any money from cutting him. I'm not even sure we could do an offset if he signed with another team.

[CrimsonCrew]

National media has had it out for Lance unlike any prospect I can really ever recall. Shoot, Zach Wilson was taken before him, has played a heck of a lot more, and totally flamed out, and he didn't catch all the heat that Lance has from the national media.

My theory has been, and continues to be, that a ton of guys in the media guaranteed that Mac Jones was the pick, and they got embarrassed when Lance was the pick. Even though it isn't logical to take that out on Lance, many of them seem to have done so. They seem to relish his struggles.

Lance has had some really tough breaks. It's not his fault Covid wiped out basically a full college season and left him remarkably raw. It's not his fault that John and Kyle traded up to #3 months before the draft without having actually scouted these guys and not knowing who they were targeting. It's not his fault they gave up three first round picks to take him. It's not his fault that, when the FO did scout him, they apparently didn't realize that he was going to be a major project. It's not his fault he got hurt (though the ankle was a play where he did a crappy job of protecting himself, so maybe he's a little responsible for that).

But as with Alex Smith early in his career, you can have tons of legitimate excuses for poor performance, but eventually, as said above, you've got to show that you can play in the league. Trey hasn't done that. Looks like, barring at least one injury and maybe two, he won't get the chance to do that.

Chris Simms was actually shockingly positive about Lance's performance, calling it a good start in the preseason and highlighting his improved mechanics. He and Mike Florio have been among Lance's loudest critics.

[Pattersonca65]

National media is all going in on Lance, virtually pronouncing the end of his career. Or at least his career with the 49ers.

All on one half of the first preseason game.

But apparently he has a rookie contract option coming up and it would be too much of a cap hit to pick up.

Because he's getting paid like the #3 pick of the draft, 49ers can't keep him unless he's a starter and that seems unlikely now.

Supposedly Trey's MVP odds at 25-1 is actually better than Purdy's odds at 50-1.

I have watched numerous national media people discussing Trey Lance this morning. None of them said Trey Lance's career was over but many questioned his career in SF. Most felt he needs reps which he probably is not going to get in SF and Shanahan's system is not the best fit for him. They questioned the 49ers for drafting him as much as Trey's abilities

[Pattersonca65]

National media has had it out for Lance unlike any prospect I can really ever recall. Shoot, Zach Wilson was taken before him, has played a heck of a lot more, and totally flamed out, and he didn't catch all the heat that Lance has from the national media.

My theory has been, and continues to be, that a ton of guys in the media guaranteed that Mac Jones was the pick, and they got embarrassed when Lance was the pick. Even though it isn't logical to take that out on Lance, many of them seem to have done so. They seem to relish his struggles.

Lance has had some really tough breaks. It's not his fault Covid wiped out basically a full college season and left him remarkably raw. It's not his fault that John and Kyle traded up to #3 months before the draft without having actually scouted these guys and not knowing who they were targeting. It's not his fault they gave up three first round picks to take him. It's not his fault that, when the FO did scout him, they apparently didn't realize that he was going to be a major project. It's not his fault he got hurt (though the ankle was a play where he did a crappy job of protecting himself, so maybe he's a little responsible for that).

But as with Alex Smith early in his career, you can have tons of legitimate excuses for poor performance, but eventually, as said above, you've got to show that you can play in the league. Trey hasn't done that. Looks like, barring at least one injury and maybe two, he won't get the chance to do that.

I watched alot of national media reaction this morning. I watched six or seven videos. None of the people I watched said Lance stinks and his career was over. Much of the criticism was in the 49ers FO drafting Lance knowing that he was raw and needed reps and the 49ers not having the luxury of giving it to him trying to win now. There was talk about how his injuries have derailed him. The one criticism I watched of him this morning was one person who claimed Lance does not look as physically gifted at the NFL level than he did in college. AS far as the criticism of Zach Wilson by comparison, IDK how much of that was due to the Mac Jones mistake. But I think part of it has to do with the 49ers success and being looked at as a super bowl contender. The best teams get the most scrutiny and media coverage and all that goes along with it. The media talking heads don't cover losers and aren't going to nearly spend the same amount of time covering them. And the NY Jets have been bad for awhile. I remember during the Kelly years especially the national media virtually ignored the 49ers.

[CrimsonCrew]

National media has had it out for Lance unlike any prospect I can really ever recall. Shoot, Zach Wilson was taken before him, has played a heck of a lot more, and totally flamed out, and he didn't catch all the heat that Lance has from the national media.

My theory has been, and continues to be, that a ton of guys in the media guaranteed that Mac Jones was the pick, and they got embarrassed when Lance was the pick. Even though it isn't logical to take that out on Lance, many of them seem to have done so. They seem to relish his struggles.

Lance has had some really tough breaks. It's not his fault Covid wiped out basically a full college season and left him remarkably raw. It's not his fault that John and Kyle traded up to #3 months before the draft without having actually scouted these guys and not knowing who they were targeting. It's not his fault they gave up three first round picks to take him. It's not his fault that, when the FO did scout him, they apparently didn't realize that he was going to be a major project. It's not his fault he got hurt (though the ankle was a play where he did a crappy job of protecting himself, so maybe he's a little responsible for that).

But as with Alex Smith early in his career, you can have tons of legitimate excuses for poor performance, but eventually, as said above, you've got to show that you can play in the league. Trey hasn't done that. Looks like, barring at least one injury and maybe two, he won't get the chance to do that.

I watched alot of national media reaction this morning. I watched six or seven videos. None of the people I watched said Lance stinks and his career was over. Much of the criticism was in the 49ers FO drafting Lance knowing that he was raw and needed reps and the 49ers not having the luxury of giving it to him trying to win now. There was talk about how his injuries have derailed him. The one criticism I watched of him this morning was one person who claimed Lance does not look as physically gifted at the NFL level than he did in college. AS far as the criticism of Zach Wilson by comparison, IDK how much of that was due to the Mac Jones mistake. But I think part of it has to do with the 49ers success and being looked at as a super bowl contender. The best teams get the most scrutiny and media coverage and all that goes along with it. The media talking heads don't cover losers and aren't going to nearly spend the same amount of time covering them. And the NY Jets have been bad for awhile. I remember during the Kelly years especially the national media virtually ignored the 49ers.

That's fair, I suppose. Lance is in a pretty unique situation in that he was taken that high by a super bowl contender. Doesn't happen very often at all, unless the QB is the one driving it.

The FO deserves a ton of criticism for all of their moves surrounding the draft trade and selection of Lance. Every step of the way was defined by poor process. They traded up much too early, and before they knew who they were trading up for. In doing so, they almost certainly traded up farther than they had to and gave up too much to get there.

The major benefit of getting a young QB is the low contract, but that's assuming you are also fleshing out your roster with good, cheap talent through the draft. In giving up all those picks, we largely lost the ability to do so (even though our FO has been mediocre at best with first round picks).

In terms of drafting Lance, it's like they didn't even scout the dude's game film. As a casual fan (okay, maybe not THAT casual), I watched every single throw Lance made in college, many of them multiple times. And as a guy who really doesn't know much about scouting and developing the QB position, I am on the record before the draft saying that Lance needs a lot of work. He was an inaccurate passer. He wasn't as athletic as you would think from his numbers and his reputation. His team was so superior to other teams that he didn't have many chances to play situational football. He rarely trailed, and may not have ever run a two-minute drill. He got worse as his one season progressed - granted weather could have contributed to some of that, and he struggled throwing the ball against the better defenses he faced.

It just blows my mind that they would take him and then handle the whole thing in this way. It's just been one disaster after another. Whether fair or not, the writing is pretty well on the wall at this point. Lance in the preseason looks miles behind Purdy in the regular season. He couldn't afford a game like this, so even if he balls out in the remaining preseason games - and I'm not sure he'll get the chance to do that - he's not going to start for this team unless Purdy gets hurt. I'm not sure he'll start for this team then. And in my view, Lynch and Shanahan deserve the lion's share of the blame for that.

[wco81]

Yeah it's a sign of the stature of the team as one of the supposed contenders that they'd be paying attention to what their QB prospect does in the first preseason game.

IF we were back in the Tomsula days, there would probably be minimal focus on the 49ers.

OTOH, all these podcasts, social media and all the scream shows (First Take) means they're going to put out hot takes on every mistake Trey makes in a preseason game. Like they were going on about how the first pass attempt was an out pattern that the CB was sitting on -- I didn't watch the game.

[arich35]

Trey is in an extremely tough spot. He needs Brock to fall on his face or an injury to happen for him to get another real shot. After how Purdy performed last year it is impossible for this team to back to Trey with so many unknowns with him. It is very likely that if he doesn't get hurt last year he would have been given a fair shake for the first half of the season to show he can lead this team

I wish they would just trade him to a team where he can go in and start and get a chance