The Trey Lance thread

[CrimsonCrew]

Double post.

[Big J]

And yet, McCaffrey aside (admittedly a big deal), Lance hasn't been able to do that.

Because he's played 5 **** quarters as a starter. The kid needs a long leash so that he can breathe. Just look at the guys physical tools. He's got prototypical star QB measurables, but he now needs experience in order to develop into one. Purdy looks nothing like a star QB in this league. He's closer to Case Keemun.

So...Lance had two starts as a rookie, and played a half of a third game. It's still an extremely limited sample, but Lance has 15 quarters, 13 as a starter. In Purdy's first 13 quarters as a starter, he shredded a surging Dolphins team, he outdueled TB, and he went up to Seattle, so injured he could barely move, and beat them. The Niners scored 33 and 35 points in the first two.

Yes, Lance clearly has more physical talent than Purdy. So did Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, and a slew of other highly drafted (and not so highly drafted) busts. Hell, so does Sam Darnold. There's more to the game than physical tools. Purdy has shown he has the intangibles. Lance has not.

Another thing. For some reason, when we talk about physical ability, we talk about arm strength. Well isn't accuracy an ability? Arguably the most important physical ability for a QB? In that area, Purdy is markedly more physically capable than Lance. Mental processing is a physical ability, and Purdy is superior in that area as well.

Would I like to see Lance have more of an opportunity to show his intangibles? Absolutely. But Lance had a chance and did little with it. Purdy had a chance and he ran with it. He deserves to be the #1 QB. If he falters in live games this year, then maybe you reconsider. But you can't bench him for Trey unless Trey is damn near perfect. Because that's what Purdy was last year.

The thing about Purdy is that he's going to be a good game manager, and that's it. He will dink and dunk the ball to CMAC, Deebo, Kittle & Ayuk and they will do all the work for him just like they did last year and it will lead to an 11-6 record without doing anything special. The problem is that he won't have that extra gear that all of the greats with real physical talent have in the playoffs. He doesn't strike fear in anyones hearts. Defenses will start pressing up against the short passes and dare him to throw deep because they know he can't with his noodle arm. If you guys are cool with just making the playoffs & the divisional round a few times, but never being a real threat to win it all then he's your guy. In order to win it all you need a guy that has an extra gear that he can go to athletically. Like a Mahomes, a Stafford, a Rodgers, A Brady, ect. Game managers aren't winning super bowls anymore, and he's never going to be able to match what those guys have in talent.

[CrimsonCrew]

The thing about Purdy is that he's going to be a good game manager, and that's it. He will dink and dunk the ball to CMAC, Deebo, Kittle & Ayuk and they will do all the work for him just like they did last year and it will lead to an 11-6 record without doing anything special. The problem is that he won't have that extra gear that all of the greats with real physical talent have in the playoffs. He doesn't strike fear in anyones hearts. Defenses will start pressing up against the short passes and dare him to throw deep because they know he can't with his noodle arm. If you guys are cool with just making the playoffs & the divisional round a few times, but never being a real threat to win it all then he's your guy. In order to win it all you need a guy that has an extra gear that he can go to athletically. Like a Mahomes, a Stafford, a Rodgers, A Brady, ect. Game managers aren't winning super bowls anymore, and he's never going to be able to match what those guys have in talent.

I share your concerns about Purdy's physical limitations. I think he has already shown the potential to do better than 11-6, he was undefeated in six regular-season games and two playoff games, but I certainly question whether he can beat the top opponents in a QB duel if the D isn't dominating. I think there are significant questions yet to be answered about whether he will be worth a major extension in two years. The good news is that we have those two years to find out.

I disagree with the characterization of Purdy as a dink and dunk passer. Against Seattle in the playoffs, for instance, he was ripping the ball 20-30 yards downfield regularly. A lot of those throws were comparable to the ones Lance made in the preseason game last week that had so many people (myself included) fired up. He may not have the arm to make every throw, but he has enough arm to be a good NFL QB.

Out of curiosity, what extra gear did Brady have athletically? He's a fair bit taller than Purdy, but he's slower, less agile, and his arm strength was probably comparable coming out. Obviously it's a tall order for anyone to be Brady, but he found a way to be an amazing QB with pretty limited physical tools.

[Pattersonca65]

The thing about Purdy is that he's going to be a good game manager, and that's it. He will dink and dunk the ball to CMAC, Deebo, Kittle & Ayuk and they will do all the work for him just like they did last year and it will lead to an 11-6 record without doing anything special. The problem is that he won't have that extra gear that all of the greats with real physical talent have in the playoffs. He doesn't strike fear in anyones hearts. Defenses will start pressing up against the short passes and dare him to throw deep because they know he can't with his noodle arm. If you guys are cool with just making the playoffs & the divisional round a few times, but never being a real threat to win it all then he's your guy. In order to win it all you need a guy that has an extra gear that he can go to athletically. Like a Mahomes, a Stafford, a Rodgers, A Brady, ect. Game managers aren't winning super bowls anymore, and he's never going to be able to match what those guys have in talent.

I share your concerns about Purdy's physical limitations. I think he has already shown the potential to do better than 11-6, he was undefeated in six regular-season games and two playoff games, but I certainly question whether he can beat the top opponents in a QB duel if the D isn't dominating. I think there are significant questions yet to be answered about whether he will be worth a major extension in two years. The good news is that we have those two years to find out.

I disagree with the characterization of Purdy as a dink and dunk passer. Against Seattle in the playoffs, for instance, he was ripping the ball 20-30 yards downfield regularly. A lot of those throws were comparable to the ones Lance made in the preseason game last week that had so many people (myself included) fired up. He may not have the arm to make every throw, but he has enough arm to be a good NFL QB.

Out of curiosity, what extra gear did Brady have athletically? He's a fair bit taller than Purdy, but he's slower, less agile, and his arm strength was probably comparable coming out. Obviously it's a tall order for anyone to be Brady, but he found a way to be an amazing QB with pretty limited physical tools.

Or how about Montana? Montana was this weak arm and slender kid coming out of Notre Dame no one was impressed with he fell to the third round and who Walsh's own scouts thought would fall to the fifth. Or Drew Brees, lack of an arm and short. Obviously those two are high bars for anyone as is Tom Brady but there are even more examples of players that became really good who did not have the coveted physical tools coming out of college.

[Big J]

The thing about Purdy is that he's going to be a good game manager, and that's it. He will dink and dunk the ball to CMAC, Deebo, Kittle & Ayuk and they will do all the work for him just like they did last year and it will lead to an 11-6 record without doing anything special. The problem is that he won't have that extra gear that all of the greats with real physical talent have in the playoffs. He doesn't strike fear in anyones hearts. Defenses will start pressing up against the short passes and dare him to throw deep because they know he can't with his noodle arm. If you guys are cool with just making the playoffs & the divisional round a few times, but never being a real threat to win it all then he's your guy. In order to win it all you need a guy that has an extra gear that he can go to athletically. Like a Mahomes, a Stafford, a Rodgers, A Brady, ect. Game managers aren't winning super bowls anymore, and he's never going to be able to match what those guys have in talent.

I share your concerns about Purdy's physical limitations. I think he has already shown the potential to do better than 11-6, he was undefeated in six regular-season games and two playoff games, but I certainly question whether he can beat the top opponents in a QB duel if the D isn't dominating. I think there are significant questions yet to be answered about whether he will be worth a major extension in two years. The good news is that we have those two years to find out.

I disagree with the characterization of Purdy as a dink and dunk passer. Against Seattle in the playoffs, for instance, he was ripping the ball 20-30 yards downfield regularly. A lot of those throws were comparable to the ones Lance made in the preseason game last week that had so many people (myself included) fired up. He may not have the arm to make every throw, but he has enough arm to be a good NFL QB.

Out of curiosity, what extra gear did Brady have athletically? He's a fair bit taller than Purdy, but he's slower, less agile, and his arm strength was probably comparable coming out. Obviously it's a tall order for anyone to be Brady, but he found a way to be an amazing QB with pretty limited physical tools.

Brady's arm strength is miles better than Purdy's. Brady gets 68 air yards on this play. Purdy couldn't dream of doing this in his wettest of wet dreams. Not to mention that Purdy just had his elbow surgically repaired which will only hurt his arm strength. Height is also a huge deal when you don't have elite speed. It makes it so that you can see over the line and not have to worry about your passes getting batted back in your face.

Watch on YouTube

[CrimsonCrew]

The thing about Purdy is that he's going to be a good game manager, and that's it. He will dink and dunk the ball to CMAC, Deebo, Kittle & Ayuk and they will do all the work for him just like they did last year and it will lead to an 11-6 record without doing anything special. The problem is that he won't have that extra gear that all of the greats with real physical talent have in the playoffs. He doesn't strike fear in anyones hearts. Defenses will start pressing up against the short passes and dare him to throw deep because they know he can't with his noodle arm. If you guys are cool with just making the playoffs & the divisional round a few times, but never being a real threat to win it all then he's your guy. In order to win it all you need a guy that has an extra gear that he can go to athletically. Like a Mahomes, a Stafford, a Rodgers, A Brady, ect. Game managers aren't winning super bowls anymore, and he's never going to be able to match what those guys have in talent.

I share your concerns about Purdy's physical limitations. I think he has already shown the potential to do better than 11-6, he was undefeated in six regular-season games and two playoff games, but I certainly question whether he can beat the top opponents in a QB duel if the D isn't dominating. I think there are significant questions yet to be answered about whether he will be worth a major extension in two years. The good news is that we have those two years to find out.

I disagree with the characterization of Purdy as a dink and dunk passer. Against Seattle in the playoffs, for instance, he was ripping the ball 20-30 yards downfield regularly. A lot of those throws were comparable to the ones Lance made in the preseason game last week that had so many people (myself included) fired up. He may not have the arm to make every throw, but he has enough arm to be a good NFL QB.

Out of curiosity, what extra gear did Brady have athletically? He's a fair bit taller than Purdy, but he's slower, less agile, and his arm strength was probably comparable coming out. Obviously it's a tall order for anyone to be Brady, but he found a way to be an amazing QB with pretty limited physical tools.

Brady's arm strength is miles better than Purdy's. Brady gets 68 air yards on this play. Purdy couldn't dream of doing this in his wettest of wet dreams. Not to mention that Purdy just had his elbow surgically repaired which will only hurt his arm strength. Height is also a huge deal when you don't have elite speed. It makes it so that you can see over the line and not have to worry about your passes getting batted back in your face.

Watch on YouTube

I can't see the video. But Brady's arm improved as time went on. He had an objectively weak arm coming out. It's part of why he fell to the 6th round.

Given a choice, I'd rather have a taller QB. But Brady simply wasn't elite physically in any realm. Neither was Brees, who was also short. It would be crazy to assume Brock can be one of those two, but it would also be dumb to assume he can't be when, so far, he's done everything right.

[CrimsonCrew]

Brady's highlights from year two (first year starting). Didn't make it all the way through, but his game looked a lot like Purdy's at this stage. He certainly isn't bombing it downfield. Lots of short stuff, lots of crossers. He's relying on accuracy and timing instead of elite arm talent.

Watch on YouTube

[CrimsonCrew]

Watch on YouTube

That's the link.

[CrimsonCrew]

Damn, that won't work. Just youtube Tom Brady 2001 highlights.

[Samurai]

For all the talk about Purdy's physical measurements, many keep overlooking his mental ones. Specifically his mid-90's score on the S2 Cognition Test, which is elite and comparable to Drew Brees (also comparable to Mahommes, Josh Allen and Burrow but their physical attributes are clearly different than Purdy, who is physically much more similar to Brees). At that level, they were able to perceive things within 16/1,000 of a second which is essentially subliminal. The S2 isn't an intelligence test such as the Wonderlic but measure how quickly and accurately athletes process information. Brandon Allen, co-founder of S2, said that a score in that range means that the game will never be too fast for Purdy. Ally said "I don't think he will ever have trouble adjusting."

It's perfectly fair to bring up Purdy's physical measurements and express concern. But it seems like pushing a specific agenda if you fail to also acknowledge the mental measurements that he excels at and acknowledge that how quickly a QB can process information is also important. In fact, the three areas where Purdy scored exceptionally well in were 1) spatial awareness (translates to how well a QB can assess a defense before the snap), 2) distraction control (when the world/pocket is collapsing around them they can maintain a steely focus on what they are supposed to do - a Drew Brees specialty), and 3) depth perception speed (he was especially elite here, scoring in the high 90's). I understand that some don't consider these traits to be nearly as important to a QB as height, 40 times, etc. Since Brees had almost identical pre-draft height, weight, and 40-time as Purdy, seems that a QB who excels in those intangibles at least has a chance at some success.

[Big J]

I share your concerns about Purdy's physical limitations. I think he has already shown the potential to do better than 11-6, he was undefeated in six regular-season games and two playoff games, but I certainly question whether he can beat the top opponents in a QB duel if the D isn't dominating. I think there are significant questions yet to be answered about whether he will be worth a major extension in two years. The good news is that we have those two years to find out.

I disagree with the characterization of Purdy as a dink and dunk passer. Against Seattle in the playoffs, for instance, he was ripping the ball 20-30 yards downfield regularly. A lot of those throws were comparable to the ones Lance made in the preseason game last week that had so many people (myself included) fired up. He may not have the arm to make every throw, but he has enough arm to be a good NFL QB.

Out of curiosity, what extra gear did Brady have athletically? He's a fair bit taller than Purdy, but he's slower, less agile, and his arm strength was probably comparable coming out. Obviously it's a tall order for anyone to be Brady, but he found a way to be an amazing QB with pretty limited physical tools.

Brady's arm strength is miles better than Purdy's. Brady gets 68 air yards on this play. Purdy couldn't dream of doing this in his wettest of wet dreams. Not to mention that Purdy just had his elbow surgically repaired which will only hurt his arm strength. Height is also a huge deal when you don't have elite speed. It makes it so that you can see over the line and not have to worry about your passes getting batted back in your face.

Watch on YouTube

I can't see the video. But Brady's arm improved as time went on. He had an objectively weak arm coming out. It's part of why he fell to the 6th round.

Given a choice, I'd rather have a taller QB. But Brady simply wasn't elite physically in any realm. Neither was Brees, who was also short. It would be crazy to assume Brock can be one of those two, but it would also be dumb to assume he can't be when, so far, he's done everything right.

Brock might have done everything right, but all he was asked to do was get the ball out and not turn it over. He never once had to make a big play because his playmakers & defense did all of the heavy lifting. He's short, physically weak, and has a noodle arm.... Ohhh but he's accurate. You know who else were accurate? Chad Pennington & Jimmy G.

[arich35]

Brady's arm strength is miles better than Purdy's. Brady gets 68 air yards on this play. Purdy couldn't dream of doing this in his wettest of wet dreams. Not to mention that Purdy just had his elbow surgically repaired which will only hurt his arm strength. Height is also a huge deal when you don't have elite speed. It makes it so that you can see over the line and not have to worry about your passes getting batted back in your face.

Watch on YouTube

I can't see the video. But Brady's arm improved as time went on. He had an objectively weak arm coming out. It's part of why he fell to the 6th round.

Given a choice, I'd rather have a taller QB. But Brady simply wasn't elite physically in any realm. Neither was Brees, who was also short. It would be crazy to assume Brock can be one of those two, but it would also be dumb to assume he can't be when, so far, he's done everything right.

Brock might have done everything right, but all he was asked to do was get the ball out and not turn it over. He never once had to make a big play because his playmakers & defense did all of the heavy lifting. He's short, physically weak, and has a noodle arm.... Ohhh but he's accurate. You know who else were accurate? Chad Pennington & Jimmy G.

Why are you faulting Purdy for the weapons around him? Lance would have the same exact weapons but he doesn't process the game nearly as well and that seems to be more important than just physical tools.
You seem to also disregard his ability to manage the pocket well (as a rookie) & how he did under pressure with guys in his face which is a huge part of being a good QB.
Here is about 5 min of highlights that show he isn't just dinking and dunking to his weapons.

Read on Twitter

[Big J]

I can't see the video. But Brady's arm improved as time went on. He had an objectively weak arm coming out. It's part of why he fell to the 6th round.

Given a choice, I'd rather have a taller QB. But Brady simply wasn't elite physically in any realm. Neither was Brees, who was also short. It would be crazy to assume Brock can be one of those two, but it would also be dumb to assume he can't be when, so far, he's done everything right.

Brock might have done everything right, but all he was asked to do was get the ball out and not turn it over. He never once had to make a big play because his playmakers & defense did all of the heavy lifting. He's short, physically weak, and has a noodle arm.... Ohhh but he's accurate. You know who else were accurate? Chad Pennington & Jimmy G.

Why are you faulting Purdy for the weapons around him? Lance would have the same exact weapons but he doesn't process the game nearly as well and that seems to be more important than just physical tools.
You seem to also disregard his ability to manage the pocket well (as a rookie) & how he did under pressure with guys in his face which is a huge part of being a good QB.
Here is about 5 min of highlights that show he isn't just dinking and dunking to his weapons.

Read on Twitter

No **** Lance didn’t process as fast as a rookie. Dude only had 1 year of lower level college experience. He is faaar from a finished product. The guy needs game reps in order to reach his massive potential.

[Pattersonca65]

Brock might have done everything right, but all he was asked to do was get the ball out and not turn it over. He never once had to make a big play because his playmakers & defense did all of the heavy lifting. He's short, physically weak, and has a noodle arm.... Ohhh but he's accurate. You know who else were accurate? Chad Pennington & Jimmy G.

Why are you faulting Purdy for the weapons around him? Lance would have the same exact weapons but he doesn't process the game nearly as well and that seems to be more important than just physical tools.
You seem to also disregard his ability to manage the pocket well (as a rookie) & how he did under pressure with guys in his face which is a huge part of being a good QB.
Here is about 5 min of highlights that show he isn't just dinking and dunking to his weapons.

Read on Twitter

No **** Lance didn’t process as fast as a rookie. Dude only had 1 year of lower level college experience. He is faaar from a finished product. The guy needs game reps in order to reach his massive potential.

What massive potential based on what? And the 49ers are supposed to lose games while Lance learns how to play at the NFL level?

[Big J]

Why are you faulting Purdy for the weapons around him? Lance would have the same exact weapons but he doesn't process the game nearly as well and that seems to be more important than just physical tools.
You seem to also disregard his ability to manage the pocket well (as a rookie) & how he did under pressure with guys in his face which is a huge part of being a good QB.
Here is about 5 min of highlights that show he isn't just dinking and dunking to his weapons.

Read on Twitter

No **** Lance didn’t process as fast as a rookie. Dude only had 1 year of lower level college experience. He is faaar from a finished product. The guy needs game reps in order to reach his massive potential.

What massive potential based on what? And the 49ers are supposed to lose games while Lance learns how to play at the NFL level?

Massive potential based on his physical attributes and pedigree. He wasn’t the 3rd overall pick for no reason. No the team isn’t supposed to lose games while he learns. This team is a playoff contender no matter which one or their 3 qbs is starting. Hell, Tim **** Tebow led a team to the playoffs.

[Harry Palmer]

The thing about Purdy is that he's going to be a good game manager, and that's it. He will dink and dunk the ball to CMAC, Deebo, Kittle & Ayuk and they will do all the work for him just like they did last year and it will lead to an 11-6 record without doing anything special. The problem is that he won't have that extra gear that all of the greats with real physical talent have in the playoffs. He doesn't strike fear in anyones hearts. Defenses will start pressing up against the short passes and dare him to throw deep because they know he can't with his noodle arm. If you guys are cool with just making the playoffs & the divisional round a few times, but never being a real threat to win it all then he's your guy. In order to win it all you need a guy that has an extra gear that he can go to athletically. Like a Mahomes, a Stafford, a Rodgers, A Brady, ect. Game managers aren't winning super bowls anymore, and he's never going to be able to match what those guys have in talent.

I share your concerns about Purdy's physical limitations. I think he has already shown the potential to do better than 11-6, he was undefeated in six regular-season games and two playoff games, but I certainly question whether he can beat the top opponents in a QB duel if the D isn't dominating. I think there are significant questions yet to be answered about whether he will be worth a major extension in two years. The good news is that we have those two years to find out.

I disagree with the characterization of Purdy as a dink and dunk passer. Against Seattle in the playoffs, for instance, he was ripping the ball 20-30 yards downfield regularly. A lot of those throws were comparable to the ones Lance made in the preseason game last week that had so many people (myself included) fired up. He may not have the arm to make every throw, but he has enough arm to be a good NFL QB.

Out of curiosity, what extra gear did Brady have athletically? He's a fair bit taller than Purdy, but he's slower, less agile, and his arm strength was probably comparable coming out. Obviously it's a tall order for anyone to be Brady, but he found a way to be an amazing QB with pretty limited physical tools.

Or how about Montana? Montana was this weak arm and slender kid coming out of Notre Dame no one was impressed with he fell to the third round and who Walsh's own scouts thought would fall to the fifth. Or Drew Brees, lack of an arm and short. Obviously those two are high bars for anyone as is Tom Brady but there are even more examples of players that became really good who did not have the coveted physical tools coming out of college.

1) Montana’s arm was still much stronger than Purdy’s. It’s just that in his era big guys with big guns were basically the only type that anyone wanted, didn’t matter if they had lead feet or w/e. There had been exceptions like Tarkenton or Staubach, but they too tended to be drafted quite low and have to ‘prove it’ much more in the pros before being regarded as something more than a gimmick. So he was being compared with a standard where arm strength and size were basically everything from a physical standpoint.

2) Montana was a much better athlete, All-State in 3 sports, could do stuff like reverse two-handed dunks, was offered basketball scholarships, etc. His athleticism is underrated because firstly he tended to run more behind the line, waiting for targets to open up rather than head downfield, and second he had this kind of gliding motion that looked slower than it was, like he was on skates or something. And when I say his athleticism is underrated, that’s more retrospectively…in his time he was considered very athletic for the position. And lastly he just doesn’t look athletic if you see him standing around, he looks like maybe he plays tennis. His chicken legs were a running joke on the team. But Walsh said his athleticism/movement/footwork were what attracted him most coming out, and he died saying Montana’s feet had never been matched by anyone, his peculiar ‘glide’ kind of movement enabled him to keep his eyes almost perfectly level even as he was dropping back exceptionally quickly, allowing him much steadier vision than any peer. You can still see it on tape.

3) His defining characteristic in public perception, the ability to stay ice cool and see his play rise in moments where generally all players tend to perform worse was already legendary in college, despite separating his shoulder, missing an entire season and kinda struggling with injuries after that during his time in South Bend. But he was a fan favourite because of all the things that we now value about him. And he was the biggest ‘brand’ qb in his draft, he was already a storied guy, it’s just that many thought that his being against type was even more likely to not translate to pro ball than in college and also thought that his health concerns were even more likely to plague him. In fairness a lot of his being so famous was also about, well, his actual name being kinda out of central casting and more playing for ND.

Brees, yeah, but his college production was next level, set Big Ten records in basically everything, and again was a multi-sport athlete. And Brady is probably the best (only?) example of a guy with an objectively very weak arm developing into a guy with an objectively strong arm that late in the curve. His first couple of championships were won by defence, coaching and his ability to remain steady in clutch moments. He was not throwing them to championships with the noodle. Even more interestingly Brady was not athletic by almost any measurable, despite which he did excel in baseball, but as a catcher, ie not a position generally associated with athleticism other than arm.

None of this says Purdy can’t create his own story of being exceptional. If he does we’ll find reasons it was always obvious he could too. But his build probably precludes a Brady like arm strength increase, his draft status wasn’t dragged by injuries, and the qb prototype is not nearly as uniform as it was earlier. He got a ton of playing time in college so there’s less hidden talent, but otoh it does speak to having qb specific talent and there probably is a scouting bias against 4 year starters now, especially at skill positions. And a ton of great quarterbacks agree that the ability to be a great quarterback is most dependent on unmeasurable, on having ‘it’ or the Force or w/e, and some see that in Purdy. The danger of unmeasurables is that it has also been attributed to a bunch of guys who have early success above what their measurables suggest they should, and most of them fall back to earth within a season or two.

[Harry Palmer]

Even guys like Orlovsky (who has never been a big Trey fan) are saying the Niners have done basically nothing to develop him, and he needs to get out just to preserve his chances at a career. And that what has happened to him would destroy anyone’s confidence, going from 3rd overall to 3rd string with virtually nothing to explain why that’s happened.

Just never seen an otherwise competent organization **** something this big up over and over again until it’s basically beyond salvage barring a series of injuries and his confidence somehow remaining even partially intact.

[Pattersonca65]

No **** Lance didn’t process as fast as a rookie. Dude only had 1 year of lower level college experience. He is faaar from a finished product. The guy needs game reps in order to reach his massive potential.

What massive potential based on what? And the 49ers are supposed to lose games while Lance learns how to play at the NFL level?

Massive potential based on his physical attributes and pedigree. He wasn’t the 3rd overall pick for no reason. No the team isn’t supposed to lose games while he learns. This team is a playoff contender no matter which one or their 3 qbs is starting. Hell, Tim **** Tebow led a team to the playoffs.

Where he was drafted doesn't mean all that much. It is already apparent the 49ers overvalued Lance's running skills. He looked great against inferior talent but he isn't running over people at the NFL level and that is not going to change. having a cannon arm is great, but you still have to mentally process and have accuracy at short to medium levels. Lance still struggle with those passes. And no, not anyone can win with this team and whether Lance can is far from cetain. If Lance truly possessed such massive potential the 49er phones would be ringing off the hook with trade offers. That hasn't happened.

[Pattersonca65]

I share your concerns about Purdy's physical limitations. I think he has already shown the potential to do better than 11-6, he was undefeated in six regular-season games and two playoff games, but I certainly question whether he can beat the top opponents in a QB duel if the D isn't dominating. I think there are significant questions yet to be answered about whether he will be worth a major extension in two years. The good news is that we have those two years to find out.

I disagree with the characterization of Purdy as a dink and dunk passer. Against Seattle in the playoffs, for instance, he was ripping the ball 20-30 yards downfield regularly. A lot of those throws were comparable to the ones Lance made in the preseason game last week that had so many people (myself included) fired up. He may not have the arm to make every throw, but he has enough arm to be a good NFL QB.

Out of curiosity, what extra gear did Brady have athletically? He's a fair bit taller than Purdy, but he's slower, less agile, and his arm strength was probably comparable coming out. Obviously it's a tall order for anyone to be Brady, but he found a way to be an amazing QB with pretty limited physical tools.

Or how about Montana? Montana was this weak arm and slender kid coming out of Notre Dame no one was impressed with he fell to the third round and who Walsh's own scouts thought would fall to the fifth. Or Drew Brees, lack of an arm and short. Obviously those two are high bars for anyone as is Tom Brady but there are even more examples of players that became really good who did not have the coveted physical tools coming out of college.

1) Montana’s arm was still much stronger than Purdy’s. It’s just that in his era big guys with big guns were basically the only type that anyone wanted, didn’t matter if they had lead feet or w/e. There had been exceptions like Tarkenton or Staubach, but they too tended to be drafted quite low and have to ‘prove it’ much more in the pros before being regarded as something more than a gimmick. So he was being compared with a standard where arm strength and size were basically everything from a physical standpoint.



2) Montana was a much better athlete, All-State in 3 sports, could do stuff like reverse two-handed dunks, was offered basketball scholarships, etc. His athleticism is underrated because firstly he tended to run more behind the line, waiting for targets to open up rather than head downfield, and second he had this kind of gliding motion that looked slower than it was, like he was on skates or something. And when I say his athleticism is underrated, that’s more retrospectively…in his time he was considered very athletic for the position. And lastly he just doesn’t look athletic if you see him standing around, he looks like maybe he plays tennis. His chicken legs were a running joke on the team. But Walsh said his athleticism/movement/footwork were what attracted him most coming out, and he died saying Montana’s feet had never been matched by anyone, his peculiar ‘glide’ kind of movement enabled him to keep his eyes almost perfectly level even as he was dropping back exceptionally quickly, allowing him much steadier vision than any peer. You can still see it on tape.

3) His defining characteristic in public perception, the ability to stay ice cool and see his play rise in moments where generally all players tend to perform worse was already legendary in college, despite separating his shoulder, missing an entire season and kinda struggling with injuries after that during his time in South Bend. But he was a fan favourite because of all the things that we now value about him. And he was the biggest ‘brand’ qb in his draft, he was already a storied guy, it’s just that many thought that his being against type was even more likely to not translate to pro ball than in college and also thought that his health concerns were even more likely to plague him. In fairness a lot of his being so famous was also about, well, his actual name being kinda out of central casting and more playing for ND.

Brees, yeah, but his college production was next level, set Big Ten records in basically everything, and again was a multi-sport athlete. And Brady is probably the best (only?) example of a guy with an objectively very weak arm developing into a guy with an objectively strong arm that late in the curve. His first couple of championships were won by defence, coaching and his ability to remain steady in clutch moments. He was not throwing them to championships with the noodle. Even more interestingly Brady was not athletic by almost any measurable, despite which he did excel in baseball, but as a catcher, ie not a position generally associated with athleticism other than arm.

None of this says Purdy can’t create his own story of being exceptional. If he does we’ll find reasons it was always obvious he could too. But his build probably precludes a Brady like arm strength increase, his draft status wasn’t dragged by injuries, and the qb prototype is not nearly as uniform as it was earlier. He got a ton of playing time in college so there’s less hidden talent, but otoh it does speak to having qb specific talent and there probably is a scouting bias against 4 year starters now, especially at skill positions. And a ton of great quarterbacks agree that the ability to be a great quarterback is most dependent on unmeasurable, on having ‘it’ or the Force or w/e, and some see that in Purdy. The danger of unmeasurables is that it has also been attributed to a bunch of guys who have early success above what their measurables suggest they should, and most of them fall back to earth within a season or two.

Montana's arm wasn't that much stronger. Montana is my favorite 49er of all time. I've watched almost every game he played in as a 49er. I agree with your analysis of Montana but the fact remains because of his arm and frame (there were other things also) that Montana fell to the third round and Walsh's own scouts felt he would fall to the fifth.

[Pattersonca65]

Even guys like Orlovsky (who has never been a big Trey fan) are saying the Niners have done basically nothing to develop him, and he needs to get out just to preserve his chances at a career. And that what has happened to him would destroy anyone’s confidence, going from 3rd overall to 3rd string with virtually nothing to explain why that’s happened.

Just never seen an otherwise competent organization **** something this big up over and over again until it’s basically beyond salvage barring a series of injuries and his confidence somehow remaining even partially intact.

The 49ers were in a tough position with Lance and it was always a question of how they could bring him along. But to say that they have done basically nothing to develop Lance is BS