2019 Off-season

Some good news on the Marsh front. Marsh wasn't awful, but he was just a guy, and not worth the money we were paying him. I'm glad the FO could see that. This also suggests that we still intend to address the position in the draft, which is good news.

CrimsonCrew · Post #609 » by **CrimsonCrew** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:16 pm

Niners prioritizing pressure vs. coverage:

Shanahan made it clear he believes in building defenses from front to back while other teams are doing the opposite. There’s a belief that because passing games are becoming so fast and calculated, the pass rush can be neutralized with plays designed to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hand quickly. That has led to teams, like the Ravens and Chiefs, investing more heavily in the secondary than the defensive front.

The 49ers, meanwhile, gave out massive contracts to pass rusher Dee Ford (five years, $87.5 million) and linebacker Kwon Alexander (four years, $54 million).

“If you can’t block people ... it’s tough to pull off whether people are getting open or not,” he said. “You can help people at times get open versus better players and stuff, but it’s very tough to help people block guys all day.”

https://www.sacbee.com/sports/article227833339.html

PFF has been doing a lot on this over the past year or two. Their analytics indicate that coverage is more important in today's NFL, and there are some prominent recent cases that back that up (e.g., Pats' D playing well despite largely manufacturing pressure, Chiefs' D awful despite great pressure). Now, the Niners' edge rush has been so poor the past couple years that they basically had to address the position. And this is a great offseason to do that. I hope they aren't done yet.

That said, as a general approach, almost dismissing the importance of coverage in favor of pass rush would be a huge mistake. We need to dramatically improve our play on the back end. Maybe that comes from young guys on the roster developing. Maybe that comes from Verrett and Ward actually staying healthy. But I sure as hell hope they aren't done adding pieces to the secondary. Given the talent available in the draft, I can't see us taking a DB in the first unless we trade back, but we'd damn well better be looking at that spot in the second and third.

CrimsonCrew · Post #610 » by **CrimsonCrew** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:17 pm

And I'll add that part of why I'm not crazy about Kwon Alexander is because he doesn't really impact the passing game. To the extent that he has strengths to his game, they do appear to come in pass rush and coverage. But he's not special in those areas, and unless he is, we're almost certainly going to regret the contract we gave him.

ChrisPozz · Post #611 » by **ChrisPozz** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:22 pm

Read on Twitter

ChrisPozz · Post #612 » by **ChrisPozz** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:35 pm

Earl Thomas thought he was headed to Chiefs

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/03/15/earl-thomas-thought-he-was-headed-to-chiefs/

CrimsonCrew · Post #613 » by **CrimsonCrew** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:35 pm

Interested to see the terms for Mostert. He's probably worth it for STs alone - there were punts last season where it seemed like no one would make the tackle if Mostert didn't. That said, we just keep pushing resources at the RB room.

shouldakepowens · Post #614 » by **shouldakepowens** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:04 pm

Wonder where the team stands cap wise with the signings and the Marsh loss? Room for another rusher?

Jikkle · Post #615 » by **Jikkle** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:33 pm

CrimsonCrew wrote:Niners prioritizing pressure vs. coverage:

Shanahan made it clear he believes in building defenses from front to back while other teams are doing the opposite. There’s a belief that because passing games are becoming so fast and calculated, the pass rush can be neutralized with plays designed to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hand quickly. That has led to teams, like the Ravens and Chiefs, investing more heavily in the secondary than the defensive front.

The 49ers, meanwhile, gave out massive contracts to pass rusher Dee Ford (five years, $87.5 million) and linebacker Kwon Alexander (four years, $54 million).

“If you can’t block people ... it’s tough to pull off whether people are getting open or not,” he said. “You can help people at times get open versus better players and stuff, but it’s very tough to help people block guys all day.”

https://www.sacbee.com/sports/article227833339.html

PFF has been doing a lot on this over the past year or two. Their analytics indicate that coverage is more important in today's NFL, and there are some prominent recent cases that back that up (e.g., Pats' D playing well despite largely manufacturing pressure, Chiefs' D awful despite great pressure). Now, the Niners' edge rush has been so poor the past couple years that they basically had to address the position. And this is a great offseason to do that. I hope they aren't done yet.

That said, as a general approach, almost dismissing the importance of coverage in favor of pass rush would be a huge mistake. We need to dramatically improve our play on the back end. Maybe that comes from young guys on the roster developing. Maybe that comes from Verrett and Ward actually staying healthy. But I sure as hell hope they aren't done adding pieces to the secondary. Given the talent available in the draft, I can't see us taking a DB in the first unless we trade back, but we'd damn well better be looking at that spot in the second and third.

The thing is that both the front and back ends are important and smart coaching is going to exploit where you're weak at. So if you can't get pressure the QB is going to sit back there and wait for someone to get open and if you can pressure but can't cover they'll just let it rip quickly.

You beat a QB like Brady by getting a strong pass rush with your front 4 and dropping the rest into coverage to rob him of quick passes. Most big games that Brady lost where largely due to teams being able to get home with their 4 down guys.

PFF is a little too married to their analytics in the fact that it's harder to find quality pass rushers than quality corners which is why you grab the elite pass rusher if you're in that position because the quality drops off more than it does for DBs.

Another element to consider is would you rather a QB have to get rid of the ball quickly for short yardage or be able to stand back and hit you frequently with big pass plays throughout the game. At least if he has to rely on short throws you just need a couple of good defensive plays to force a punt.

CrimsonCrew · Post #616 » by **CrimsonCrew** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:03 pm

Jikkle wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:Niners prioritizing pressure vs. coverage:

Shanahan made it clear he believes in building defenses from front to back while other teams are doing the opposite. There’s a belief that because passing games are becoming so fast and calculated, the pass rush can be neutralized with plays designed to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hand quickly. That has led to teams, like the Ravens and Chiefs, investing more heavily in the secondary than the defensive front.

The 49ers, meanwhile, gave out massive contracts to pass rusher Dee Ford (five years, $87.5 million) and linebacker Kwon Alexander (four years, $54 million).

“If you can’t block people ... it’s tough to pull off whether people are getting open or not,” he said. “You can help people at times get open versus better players and stuff, but it’s very tough to help people block guys all day.”

https://www.sacbee.com/sports/article227833339.html

PFF has been doing a lot on this over the past year or two. Their analytics indicate that coverage is more important in today's NFL, and there are some prominent recent cases that back that up (e.g., Pats' D playing well despite largely manufacturing pressure, Chiefs' D awful despite great pressure). Now, the Niners' edge rush has been so poor the past couple years that they basically had to address the position. And this is a great offseason to do that. I hope they aren't done yet.

That said, as a general approach, almost dismissing the importance of coverage in favor of pass rush would be a huge mistake. We need to dramatically improve our play on the back end. Maybe that comes from young guys on the roster developing. Maybe that comes from Verrett and Ward actually staying healthy. But I sure as hell hope they aren't done adding pieces to the secondary. Given the talent available in the draft, I can't see us taking a DB in the first unless we trade back, but we'd damn well better be looking at that spot in the second and third.

The thing is that both the front and back ends are important and smart coaching is going to exploit where you're weak at. So if you can't get pressure the QB is going to sit back there and wait for someone to get open and if you can pressure but can't cover they'll just let it rip quickly.

You beat a QB like Brady by getting a strong pass rush with your front 4 and dropping the rest into coverage to rob him of quick passes. Most big games that Brady lost where largely due to teams being able to get home with their 4 down guys.

PFF is a little too married to their analytics in the fact that it's harder to find quality pass rushers than quality corners which is why you grab the elite pass rusher if you're in that position because the quality drops off more than it does for DBs.

Another element to consider is would you rather a QB have to get rid of the ball quickly for short yardage or be able to stand back and hit you frequently with big pass plays throughout the game. At least if he has to rely on short throws you just need a couple of good defensive plays to force a punt.

Yeah, I'm not simply accepting PFF's conclusion, and certainly you need both pass rush and coverage to stop the pass in today's NFL. Despite the awful coverage numbers last year, I felt edge rush was their biggest need going into the season, at least in part because they hadn't even tried to address it in several years. I'm still pulling for Bosa if they make the pick at two.

That said, we desperately need to upgrade our coverage situation, and I'm not certain Lynch and Shanahan view that with the same urgency that I do. And spending big money on Alexander does little to help with our coverage issues. Granted there wasn't a whole lot there at CB, and taking a flier on Verrett is a sound move. The draft should tell us a little more about how they view the DB situation. I really hope they attack the position.

Bald Bull · Post #617 » by **Bald Bull** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:19 pm

Read on Twitter

please not Breida.

Bald Bull · Post #618 » by **Bald Bull** » Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:21 am

Read on Twitter

arich35 · Post #619 » by **arich35** » Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:30 am

Bald Bull wrote:

Read on Twitter

please not Breida.

He seems most likely especially if we can get a draft pick for him

ChrisPozz · Post #620 » by **ChrisPozz** » Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:35 am

PFF's 2019 NFL Free Agency Deal Grader

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-2019-free-agency-deal-grader