The Trey Lance thread

[Jikkle]

Read on Twitter

I know this throw gave Kyle a woody.

I've been re-watching Lance's film and was going to make a post about it afterward, but this is as good a time as any to chime in a little bit. Two things have struck me that didn't resonate as much on my first go-through, one bad and one good.

First, the bad, as it relates to this post. Lance (at least through 8 games of the 2019 season) doesn't throw a very good deep ball. It's not usually the downright absurd inaccuracy that he sometimes shows, though there are examples of that where the ball is just way out of bounds. It's just a lack of feel for it, especially as compared to a Justin Fields who is really good at it. Lance will occasionally hit them just right, like the pass shown here. But much more often when he's throwing into coverage downfield, the ball is just off. I realize this is one of the hardest things for a QB to do, but Lance was frequently a few yards long or a few yards deep. He rarely completed a deep ball into coverage, and it wasn't typically because of great defensive plays or receivers dropping balls, like this one. He just wasn't hitting the throws the way he needs to.

Having said that, one thing that he does a very nice job of is moving in the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield. When he feels pressure, he does a great job of stepping up in the pocket and continuing his progressions. The same thing goes when he flees the pocket. He had a lot of wide open completions in 2019, particularly in the end zone, but a fair bit of that is him keeping plays alive and finding the open man. This is an area where Fields struggled, though his movement in the pocket seemed to improve later in the 2020 season.

For Lance, it's all going to be about accuracy. It may not be the only thing that can hold him back, but it's definitely going to be at the top of the list. He simply has to make the throws when they're there. Unlike Fields (or Mahomes, for that matter), I don't have huge faith in Lance to engineer a late double-digit comeback with big plays downfield. He's capable of it, but as of 2019, he didn't have nearly the consistency to rely on it.

The tough part with Lance right now is we simply don't know how far he's come along with his mechanics because all indications is that he's improved in that regard so we're in the dark just as how improved and how much of a difference that will make.

That's why this will be one of the most exciting preseasons we've had in a good long while because we'll get a chance to really see how far he's come along since 2019.

[CrimsonCrew]

Okay, finished re-watching all of Lance's games and his first pro day. Very likely no one cares about my thoughts at this point, but I'm subjecting all of you to my obsession.

I captured a fair bit of my updated thoughts above, and watching the remaining half of the games didn't dramatically alter my view. As said, Lance has nice feel in the pocket, moves well inside the pocket, bails when he needs to, but usually keeps his eyes downfield unless there's a clear running lane. He doesn't take many risks with the ball, and he seems to usually find the open man. Other than a few miscues that seem to stem from rushing his throws, he is fairly accurate within the first 15 yards of the LOS. He throws the out well, and he throws well on the move. He doesn't have the pinpoint accuracy you'd like to see to consistently hit guys in stride, but he can do it at times. He's also a better runner than I initially gave him credit for - though I thought he was good, so it's kind of splitting hairs. I still think Fields is better in the open field in terms of making guys miss, but Lance has really good instincts running in traffic. He has very nimble feet to work through trash, and makes subtle moves reminiscent of a RB to make guys miss. I can't see him running up the gut much in the NFL, but he could do some of that.

But man, re-watching that tape - and his pro day - he just is not a good deep ball thrower. And it has me a little concerned about his longterm projection. Part of what had me excited about adding a guy at #3 was the prospect of threatening the entire field with his arm. Garoppolo can't do that. He is probably the worst deep ball thrower among starting QBs in the league. Watching Fields had me salivating at the thought of forcing safeties to fear threats in that part of the field. I don't think Lance brings much more that Garoppolo in that area. Yes, he has a stronger arm. But he just doesn't show an ability to consistently judge deep balls. In his college tape, I can only recall one deep ball that was completed in stride against tight coverage. This is the sort of thing Fields did routinely, multiple times a game. And yes, there were a couple deep drops that NFL receivers better bring in, but by and large, it is just Fields missing. He's four yards long. He's three yards short. He's putting it well out of bounds. Even at his pro day, under ideal circumstances and after training for it for a year, effectively, he hit maybe 40% of his deep balls the way you want to see them. He is not, and will never be IMO, a Patrick Mahomes or a Russell Wilson, who can get you back into a game instantly with his deep passing. Unless the WR gets very open, I can't see him having consistent success with downfield passing. And it's hard to envision him becoming a consistently better deep ball thrower. I think that's one of the absolute hardest things to improve.

My fear is that we have basically replaced Garoppolo with a somewhat more cautious version of himself who can run. Lance is probably a bit less accurate than post-ACL Garoppolo in the short and mid-area, but he should be able to synthesize Shanahan's offense better. And in terms of his caution, I'm not sure we will see marked improvement initially. While Lance is generally a good decision-maker, the no INTs stat is meaningless. He had probably five balls that should have been gimme INTs in 2019 (like hit a defender in both hands gimme), threw one pick in one game in 2020, and almost threw another in that game. Meanwhile, Fields, who gets questioned for processing, had six turnover-worthy plays in 2020 (I think) and six INTs; that's just a luck/defensive success or failure distinction.

Finally, contrary to Fields, who had some real down games throwing the ball but bounced back with some big games at the end of the season, Lance ended on a bad note throwing the ball. In 2019, he didn't throw the ball well in four of his last five games. And he was really bad for three quarters in his only game in 2020, before rebounding a bit in the fourth quarter (he also had a beautiful deep ball that was dropped).

Anyway, I'm going to be patient and see what Shanahan can do with his guy, but I'm not expecting the dramatic expansion of the playbook that you might have seen under Fields. And that frustrates me a bit. I'm not an NFL coach, or an offensive genius, but I've got to think you can take a guy like Fields, who is a superior athlete, has pinpoint accuracy, an awesome deep ball, and solid processing skills against some of the top Ds in the country, and groom him to work under center and in the play action, to see the open man more consistently, to recognize blitzers, etc. And if you can do that, I feel quite confident he'll be better than Lance. All the talk about Lance having the higher ceiling is absolutely crazy in my mind. Fields is just so much better throwing deep, it would take a seismic shift in Lance's ability to surpass him.

[CrimsonCrew]

I've been re-watching Lance's film and was going to make a post about it afterward, but this is as good a time as any to chime in a little bit. Two things have struck me that didn't resonate as much on my first go-through, one bad and one good.

First, the bad, as it relates to this post. Lance (at least through 8 games of the 2019 season) doesn't throw a very good deep ball. It's not usually the downright absurd inaccuracy that he sometimes shows, though there are examples of that where the ball is just way out of bounds. It's just a lack of feel for it, especially as compared to a Justin Fields who is really good at it. Lance will occasionally hit them just right, like the pass shown here. But much more often when he's throwing into coverage downfield, the ball is just off. I realize this is one of the hardest things for a QB to do, but Lance was frequently a few yards long or a few yards deep. He rarely completed a deep ball into coverage, and it wasn't typically because of great defensive plays or receivers dropping balls, like this one. He just wasn't hitting the throws the way he needs to.

Having said that, one thing that he does a very nice job of is moving in the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield. When he feels pressure, he does a great job of stepping up in the pocket and continuing his progressions. The same thing goes when he flees the pocket. He had a lot of wide open completions in 2019, particularly in the end zone, but a fair bit of that is him keeping plays alive and finding the open man. This is an area where Fields struggled, though his movement in the pocket seemed to improve later in the 2020 season.

For Lance, it's all going to be about accuracy. It may not be the only thing that can hold him back, but it's definitely going to be at the top of the list. He simply has to make the throws when they're there. Unlike Fields (or Mahomes, for that matter), I don't have huge faith in Lance to engineer a late double-digit comeback with big plays downfield. He's capable of it, but as of 2019, he didn't have nearly the consistency to rely on it.

The tough part with Lance right now is we simply don't know how far he's come along with his mechanics because all indications is that he's improved in that regard so we're in the dark just as how improved and how much of a difference that will make.

That's why this will be one of the most exciting preseasons we've had in a good long while because we'll get a chance to really see how far he's come along since 2019.

To this point, this is why I re-watched his pro day. To be fair, a pro day isn't that revelatory, but if hes' not hitting deep balls consistently at the pro day, it strongly suggests he hasn't fixed the issue. And he wasn't. He threw two or three really nice deep balls (one of which was dropped), a couple that were catchable but required some fairly significant adjustment, and at least three that were flat-out uncatchable. It seemed like more of the same.

[TheMonarch]

Now Lombardi claims Jones was the first choice but Kyle switched when there was so much flak about trading up for Jones or using such a high pick on a guy who is physically unimpressive.

He also recommended that Jones hit the weight room right away.

I’m telling you. I really believe this. Kyle was the person who traded up for C.J. freaking Beathard in the 3rd round. CJ was projected to go in the 6th or 7th round that year. All b/c CJ was his type similar to Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, etc. Mac Jones met that criteria. I’m telling y’all - Mac Jones was his choice.

A guy can't learn or grow? Maybe Kyle learned his lesson after Beathard and his time as a head coach and decided to change his prototype for QB

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

Now Lombardi claims Jones was the first choice but Kyle switched when there was so much flak about trading up for Jones or using such a high pick on a guy who is physically unimpressive.

He also recommended that Jones hit the weight room right away.

I’m telling you. I really believe this. Kyle was the person who traded up for C.J. freaking Beathard in the 3rd round. CJ was projected to go in the 6th or 7th round that year. All b/c CJ was his type similar to Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, etc. Mac Jones met that criteria. I’m telling y’all - Mac Jones was his choice.

A guy can't learn or grow? Maybe Kyle learned his lesson after Beathard and his time as a head coach and decided to change his prototype for QB

A leopard can’t change its spots. Shanahan can’t change his sin-nature.

More proof of his type:
https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/147052-pauline-shanahan-pretty-upset-dalton-49ers-wanted-garoppolo/

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

TREY LANCE
QB, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

USA Today's Mark Schofield said 49ers QB Trey Lance could start "sooner than you think."

Schofield cites Lance's familiarity with the complex west coast offense play calling verbiage, his accuracy on short and anticipatory throws, and his athleticism as reasons the rookie could take the Niners' starting job in 2021. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has famously complicated play calling language that, according to Lance's former QB coach Randy Hedberg, won't trip up the rookie. "We verbalize the play in the huddle, and I think that’s one thing that would be a plus for Trey at the next level. He’s done that in our system, but it does resemble more West Coast than anything," Hedberg said. At North Dakota State, Lance became familiar with many Shanahan stables such as boot action, timing throws, and dump offs to fullbacks and tight ends. Lance's ability to scramble, buy time in the pocket, and take off for even short gains could make him a superior option to pocket passer Jimmy Garoppolo, Schofield said. Look for Lance's average draft position to skyrocket if Shanahan so much as hints that the Week 1 job could be his.
SOURCE: USA Today

May 7, 2021, 10:21 AM ET

[Jikkle]

TREY LANCE
QB, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

USA Today's Mark Schofield said 49ers QB Trey Lance could start "sooner than you think."

Schofield cites Lance's familiarity with the complex west coast offense play calling verbiage, his accuracy on short and anticipatory throws, and his athleticism as reasons the rookie could take the Niners' starting job in 2021. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has famously complicated play calling language that, according to Lance's former QB coach Randy Hedberg, won't trip up the rookie. "We verbalize the play in the huddle, and I think that’s one thing that would be a plus for Trey at the next level. He’s done that in our system, but it does resemble more West Coast than anything," Hedberg said. At North Dakota State, Lance became familiar with many Shanahan stables such as boot action, timing throws, and dump offs to fullbacks and tight ends. Lance's ability to scramble, buy time in the pocket, and take off for even short gains could make him a superior option to pocket passer Jimmy Garoppolo, Schofield said. Look for Lance's average draft position to skyrocket if Shanahan so much as hints that the Week 1 job could be his.
SOURCE: USA Today

May 7, 2021, 10:21 AM ET

I've been saying this all along. How much of a project Lance is has been overstated and he's definitely not a 2 or 3 year project some fans seem to think he is and at most he'll ride the bench for a season.

I wouldn't start him for the sake of starting him though. For some reason some media types and even some fans think because he's the 3rd overall pick he has to start now when big picture is that you hope that you have an elite talent for the next 15+ years. I'm not interested in if he contributes in 2021 if he ends up being a top 5 QB 2022 and beyond.

But I wouldn't hesitate to start him week 1 if he's the best option at QB. This team is more than suitable to support a rookie QB as constructed and it's not like we'd be throwing him out there to the wolves.

I stress best option because if Jimmy G is the better option week 1 he should definitely start. We do have a strong roster that's in the Super Bowl mix so we should be putting the guys out there that give us the greatest chance of winning.

Just have to wait and see when training camp and preseason games hit. Lance is supposed to have a high football IQ so maybe he's able to gain enough ground he starts over Jimmy G or maybe with the limited offseason work he simply won't be able to gain enough to overtake Jimmy early on.

They kept Jimmy because it's too late to spend the money we would've gotten from getting rid of him now and it gives them the luxury of playing the QB that gives them the best chance to win and not force a rookie out there or some scrub vet QB to buy the rookie time.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

TREY LANCE
QB, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The Athletic's Matt Barrows believes the 49ers could "sprinkle in Trey Lance the way the Saints have used Taysom Hill" in recent seasons.

It's obviously only a possibility if Jimmy Garoppolo were to remain on the team's roster through camp, which still seems doubtful following the shots both Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch fired pre-draft. Barrows also comps Lance's potential usage to the way the 49ers used Colin Kaepernick early in 2012 when the latter averaged 4.3 pass attempts and 3.5 carries in specific packages until he inevitably replaced Alex Smith to finish the year. Properly projecting the number of games Lance eventually starts continues to be one of the most important questions to answer if drafting early in large-field Best-Ball tournaments.
SOURCE: Matt Barrows on Twitter

May 7, 2021, 1:15 PM ET

[CrimsonCrew]

I’m telling you. I really believe this. Kyle was the person who traded up for C.J. freaking Beathard in the 3rd round. CJ was projected to go in the 6th or 7th round that year. All b/c CJ was his type similar to Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, etc. Mac Jones met that criteria. I’m telling y’all - Mac Jones was his choice.

A guy can't learn or grow? Maybe Kyle learned his lesson after Beathard and his time as a head coach and decided to change his prototype for QB

A leopard can’t change its spots. Shanahan can’t change his sin-nature.

More proof of his type:
https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/147052-pauline-shanahan-pretty-upset-dalton-49ers-wanted-garoppolo/

Bingo, there's an inherent contradiction in your argument. The Shanahan you're describing is stubborn, intractable, supremely confident in his own judgment. I don't necessarily disagree with that portrayal of Shanahan, but the second part of your argument is that this unwavering personality...suddenly folded to pressure from the fanbase? That doesn't follow.

And the article you're posting is proof to the contrary. According to that theory, when the Niners were in on Dalton, they already had Lance ticketed as the guy they wanted to pursue. If they could have gotten Dalton for $7 or $8 million, traded Garoppolo for a second or third, shed $27 million-odd in cap space, and drafted Lance, that would have been a pretty solid series of moves, IMO. Dalton doesn't give us a great opportunity to win now, but he's also better than he showed last year behind a very shaky OL. And they may just think Lance is far enough along that he can be the starter by week four or so.

[CrimsonCrew]

TREY LANCE
QB, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

USA Today's Mark Schofield said 49ers QB Trey Lance could start "sooner than you think."

Schofield cites Lance's familiarity with the complex west coast offense play calling verbiage, his accuracy on short and anticipatory throws, and his athleticism as reasons the rookie could take the Niners' starting job in 2021. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has famously complicated play calling language that, according to Lance's former QB coach Randy Hedberg, won't trip up the rookie. "We verbalize the play in the huddle, and I think that’s one thing that would be a plus for Trey at the next level. He’s done that in our system, but it does resemble more West Coast than anything," Hedberg said. At North Dakota State, Lance became familiar with many Shanahan stables such as boot action, timing throws, and dump offs to fullbacks and tight ends. Lance's ability to scramble, buy time in the pocket, and take off for even short gains could make him a superior option to pocket passer Jimmy Garoppolo, Schofield said. Look for Lance's average draft position to skyrocket if Shanahan so much as hints that the Week 1 job could be his.
SOURCE: USA Today

May 7, 2021, 10:21 AM ET

I've been saying this all along. How much of a project Lance is has been overstated and he's definitely not a 2 or 3 year project some fans seem to think he is and at most he'll ride the bench for a season.

I wouldn't start him for the sake of starting him though. For some reason some media types and even some fans think because he's the 3rd overall pick he has to start now when big picture is that you hope that you have an elite talent for the next 15+ years. I'm not interested in if he contributes in 2021 if he ends up being a top 5 QB 2022 and beyond.

But I wouldn't hesitate to start him week 1 if he's the best option at QB. This team is more than suitable to support a rookie QB as constructed and it's not like we'd be throwing him out there to the wolves.

I stress best option because if Jimmy G is the better option week 1 he should definitely start. We do have a strong roster that's in the Super Bowl mix so we should be putting the guys out there that give us the greatest chance of winning.

Just have to wait and see when training camp and preseason games hit. Lance is supposed to have a high football IQ so maybe he's able to gain enough ground he starts over Jimmy G or maybe with the limited offseason work he simply won't be able to gain enough to overtake Jimmy early on.

They kept Jimmy because it's too late to spend the money we would've gotten from getting rid of him now and it gives them the luxury of playing the QB that gives them the best chance to win and not force a rookie out there or some scrub vet QB to buy the rookie time.

The argument for not starting a rookie QB is to nurture him a little bit and not shatter his confidence when he comes out and struggles. That said, the Niners can avoid a lot of those concerns because of the coaching staff and the strength of the team around him. They've got a generally solid OL, good front-line skill players, and an exceptional coach who can take a lot of pressure off the QB. I'm not advocating for him to start right away; I think there's a lot to be said to developing a bit and learning the speed of the game before getting thrown out there. But I'm not too worried they're going to give him the Alex Smith treatment.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

A guy can't learn or grow? Maybe Kyle learned his lesson after Beathard and his time as a head coach and decided to change his prototype for QB

A leopard can’t change its spots. Shanahan can’t change his sin-nature.

More proof of his type:
https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/147052-pauline-shanahan-pretty-upset-dalton-49ers-wanted-garoppolo/

Bingo, there's an inherent contradiction in your argument. The Shanahan you're describing is stubborn, intractable, supremely confident in his own judgment. I don't necessarily disagree with that portrayal of Shanahan, but the second part of your argument is that this unwavering personality...

suddenly folded to pressure from the fanbase?

That doesn't follow.

And the article you're posting is proof to the contrary. According to that theory, when the Niners were in on Dalton, they already had Lance ticketed as the guy they wanted to pursue. If they could have gotten Dalton for $7 or $8 million, traded Garoppolo for a second or third, shed $27 million-odd in cap space, and drafted Lance, that would have been a pretty solid series of moves, IMO. Dalton doesn't give us a great opportunity to win now, but he's also better than he showed last year behind a very shaky OL. And they may just think Lance is far enough along that he can be the starter by week four or so.

No, that is not what I’ve said Crims, I definitely don’t believe that. No way do I think that Shanahan would give a rat’s a$$ what the fanbase feels. That would be absurd for any true fans to believe that we’re that influential! What I’ve said all along is that everyone in the front office was pleading for Lance and that he and his father were the lone supporter of Matt Jones throughout the entire organization.

John Lynch, made it clear by telling him that in the end he would not overrule Shanahan being that he’s the HC and also the league’s best offensive guru / play-caller. I strongly believe that Kyle and Mike wanted Mac Jones. Lance being their second choice.

How I interpreted that article was that “Kyle has a type”! I posted it as part of my argument to support that belief (Dalton; Mac Jones).

Nonetheless, when you get a chance watch this interview (fast forward to 16:26 however):

Watch on YouTube

[CrimsonCrew]

Fair enough, but the same argument holds.

Something else I meant to mention, and have noted previously, is that Lance may be Shanahan's type. Shanahan likes seeing college players play under center, run play action turning their back to the defense (Jones and Fields both ran a fair but of play action and run pass option, but out of pistol or shotgun). In that respect, running a system like Shanahan's in college, Lance might have actually been the closest to beathard.

Don't have time to watch the video now, but I'll take a look later.

[Jikkle]

TREY LANCE
QB, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

USA Today's Mark Schofield said 49ers QB Trey Lance could start "sooner than you think."

Schofield cites Lance's familiarity with the complex west coast offense play calling verbiage, his accuracy on short and anticipatory throws, and his athleticism as reasons the rookie could take the Niners' starting job in 2021. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has famously complicated play calling language that, according to Lance's former QB coach Randy Hedberg, won't trip up the rookie. "We verbalize the play in the huddle, and I think that’s one thing that would be a plus for Trey at the next level. He’s done that in our system, but it does resemble more West Coast than anything," Hedberg said. At North Dakota State, Lance became familiar with many Shanahan stables such as boot action, timing throws, and dump offs to fullbacks and tight ends. Lance's ability to scramble, buy time in the pocket, and take off for even short gains could make him a superior option to pocket passer Jimmy Garoppolo, Schofield said. Look for Lance's average draft position to skyrocket if Shanahan so much as hints that the Week 1 job could be his.
SOURCE: USA Today

May 7, 2021, 10:21 AM ET

I've been saying this all along. How much of a project Lance is has been overstated and he's definitely not a 2 or 3 year project some fans seem to think he is and at most he'll ride the bench for a season.

I wouldn't start him for the sake of starting him though. For some reason some media types and even some fans think because he's the 3rd overall pick he has to start now when big picture is that you hope that you have an elite talent for the next 15+ years. I'm not interested in if he contributes in 2021 if he ends up being a top 5 QB 2022 and beyond.

But I wouldn't hesitate to start him week 1 if he's the best option at QB. This team is more than suitable to support a rookie QB as constructed and it's not like we'd be throwing him out there to the wolves.

I stress best option because if Jimmy G is the better option week 1 he should definitely start. We do have a strong roster that's in the Super Bowl mix so we should be putting the guys out there that give us the greatest chance of winning.

Just have to wait and see when training camp and preseason games hit. Lance is supposed to have a high football IQ so maybe he's able to gain enough ground he starts over Jimmy G or maybe with the limited offseason work he simply won't be able to gain enough to overtake Jimmy early on.

They kept Jimmy because it's too late to spend the money we would've gotten from getting rid of him now and it gives them the luxury of playing the QB that gives them the best chance to win and not force a rookie out there or some scrub vet QB to buy the rookie time.

The argument for not starting a rookie QB is to nurture him a little bit and not shatter his confidence when he comes out and struggles. That said, the Niners can avoid a lot of those concerns because of the coaching staff and the strength of the team around him. They've got a generally solid OL, good front-line skill players, and an exceptional coach who can take a lot of pressure off the QB. I'm not advocating for him to start right away; I think there's a lot to be said to developing a bit and learning the speed of the game before getting thrown out there. But I'm not too worried they're going to give him the Alex Smith treatment.

If the roster was weak I'd say sit him year 1 no matter what but this draft it was clear they really want to get back to 2019 levels of running the ball. So he has plenty of targets to throw to and a strong running game which is a great situation for any rookie QB to walk into even if it wasn't Lance. And rookies have done well in those conditions in the past like Roethlisberger and Wilson.

I'm fine whatever they do with him either way. There is merit in sitting a year and merit in playing him right off the bat and what he does will be up to where he's at by week 1.

I just argue against the notion he can't start week 1 because he's raw. He's raw from the standpoint of being inexperienced but not raw from the standpoint of being able to perform the functions he'll need to do in this offense. A lot of guys come from systems in college where they barely every take a snap from center and everyone looks to the sidelines for the play whereas Lance can take snaps from center, form a huddle, and make long play calls.

I think it boils down to if he can master enough of the playbook and adjust to the NFL talent in the limited window he has that would make him a superior option to Jimmy G to start.

[Jikkle]

Watch on YouTube

I agree with him when it comes to running the ball as it's been overrated and he's not going to be running over NFL LBs like he ran over guys like college. I'm sure he'll make a number of NFL DBs pay though but trucking guys and being power back isn't how he's going to make his bread.

But I still consider it a strong part of his game as he does seem to have a running back feel for running the ball and he's got more than enough speed to be a threat running the ball.

It's just he's right in saying he's probably only going to get around 5 runs designed for him a game if that. I don't believe Shanahan wants to run a Lamar Jackson or RGIII type of offense but he wants to establish Lance being a big enough threat running the ball defenses have no choice but to factor in that as a possibility and account for it putting even more stress on defenses and opening the offense up even more.

[Swift21]

I've been re-watching Lance's film and was going to make a post about it afterward, but this is as good a time as any to chime in a little bit. Two things have struck me that didn't resonate as much on my first go-through, one bad and one good.

First, the bad, as it relates to this post. Lance (at least through 8 games of the 2019 season) doesn't throw a very good deep ball. It's not usually the downright absurd inaccuracy that he sometimes shows, though there are examples of that where the ball is just way out of bounds. It's just a lack of feel for it, especially as compared to a Justin Fields who is really good at it. Lance will occasionally hit them just right, like the pass shown here. But much more often when he's throwing into coverage downfield, the ball is just off. I realize this is one of the hardest things for a QB to do, but Lance was frequently a few yards long or a few yards deep. He rarely completed a deep ball into coverage, and it wasn't typically because of great defensive plays or receivers dropping balls, like this one. He just wasn't hitting the throws the way he needs to.

Having said that, one thing that he does a very nice job of is moving in the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield. When he feels pressure, he does a great job of stepping up in the pocket and continuing his progressions. The same thing goes when he flees the pocket. He had a lot of wide open completions in 2019, particularly in the end zone, but a fair bit of that is him keeping plays alive and finding the open man. This is an area where Fields struggled, though his movement in the pocket seemed to improve later in the 2020 season.

For Lance, it's all going to be about accuracy. It may not be the only thing that can hold him back, but it's definitely going to be at the top of the list. He simply has to make the throws when they're there. Unlike Fields (or Mahomes, for that matter), I don't have huge faith in Lance to engineer a late double-digit comeback with big plays downfield. He's capable of it, but as of 2019, he didn't have nearly the consistency to rely on it.

The tough part with Lance right now is we simply don't know how far he's come along with his mechanics because all indications is that he's improved in that regard so we're in the dark just as how improved and how much of a difference that will make.

That's why this will be one of the most exciting preseasons we've had in a good long while because we'll get a chance to really see how far he's come along since 2019.

To this point, this is why I re-watched his pro day. To be fair, a pro day isn't that revelatory, but if hes' not hitting deep balls consistently at the pro day, it strongly suggests he hasn't fixed the issue. And he wasn't. He threw two or three really nice deep balls (one of which was dropped), a couple that were catchable but required some fairly significant adjustment, and at least three that were flat-out uncatchable. It seemed like more of the same.

To each his own I guess. Mac Jones has good mechanics and he looked awful at both his pro days.

[CrimsonCrew]

No, that is not what I’ve said Crims, I definitely don’t believe that. No way do I think that Shanahan would give a rat’s a$$ what the fanbase feels. That would be absurd for any true fans to believe that we’re that influential! What I’ve said all along is that everyone in the front office was pleading for Lance and that he and his father were the lone supporter of Matt Jones throughout the entire organization.

John Lynch, made it clear by telling him that in the end he would not overrule Shanahan being that he’s the HC and also the league’s best offensive guru / play-caller. I strongly believe that Kyle and Mike wanted Mac Jones. Lance being their second choice.

How I interpreted that article was that “Kyle has a type”! I posted it as part of my argument to support that belief (Dalton; Mac Jones).

Nonetheless, when you get a chance watch this interview (fast forward to 16:26 however):

Watch on YouTube

Got around to watching the video. First off, Florio is an idiot. He was captaining the, "they traded up without a plan, how embarrassing for them!" ship. He's been wrong about virtually everything he's said, and now he's claiming he was right. He has no credibility.

Florio's comments about Lance make me question how much he's watched the guy. He's talking about how Shanahan wants a guy who will execute the offense, but Lance will just run around and play backyard ball. I'll be frank: that smacks more than a little bit of a racist view of a black QB. That's not how Trey Lance plays football. Sure, he ran the ball a lot at NDSU, but that's because the designed QB run game was a major part of their offense. Lance is not at all a first-read and bail sort of player. He read the whole field, he repeatedly threw to his second or third read, and his pocket presence and ability to step away from pressure and keep his eyes downfield rivals Jones' - and is arguably the strongest contrast between how he and Fields play QB. And yes, if he steps away from pressure and can't find an open man, he will run the ball. But his first inclination is to play within the structure.

My sense is that Chris Simms watches like four games of each of the QBs that he scouts, creates pretty thin scouting reports based on those games, and then Florio just relies on those for his opinion about the QBs. Chris Simms knows way more about football, and QB play in particular, than I do. But his scouting reports for Fields and Lance are just objectively wrong. He questions Fields' accuracy, especially in the short area. Fields is the most accurate QB in this draft. The only guy who is even close is Jones, who was incredibly accurate in the short and mid-range, but isn't close to Fields deep (a lot of Jones' deep balls die, though they're still complete because his receivers literally had five yards of separation or more). Fields' mechanics may not be great, but man does he get the job done throwing the ball. And Simms claims Lance is a one-read QB, which just isn't true at all. He's got plenty of question marks, but he obviously reads the field.

Florio is also just full of it in terms of his discussion of there being no reason why the Niners would sit on who they were picking. Why wouldn't they? First off, the Jets had not overtly stated they were talking Wilson. That was the overwhelming speculation, but hey, I've seen that sort of speculation prove wrong in the past. Second, why tip off your opponents to your intentions? There's absolutely no benefit. They run the risk of looking like fools because of the subterfuge? No they don't. They run that risk regardless because they traded a ton of picks to get Lance. If they had said from day one, "Trey is our guy," they would have been in exactly the same position in terms of looking terrible if Jones or Fields succeeds. Instead, they were THE STORY of the draft. You can't buy that sort of publicity. Major news networks were covering the Niners' decision. And there's a strong argument that they actually softened the blow of drafting a guy as inexperienced as Lance because people were so down on the idea of them taking Jones.

On the other hand, Peter King, a guy with major connections and who is close with our FO, said he believes Shanahan wanted Lance all along.

Florio's one valid point is questioning the decision to trade so much so early to go up and get Lance. I think they were premature, but the Dolphins were clearly shopping the pick, and all it takes is one other team jumping up. We'll never know what might have been, but it was a ton to give up for a guy with as many questions as Lance has.

[CrimsonCrew]

Coming back to Chris Simms and his review of Fields, I just don't know what the dude is talking about. He had this to say about the Clemson game:

I know people talk about the Clemson game. I would challenge people to go back and watch it. I know there are some good throws, but there are a handful of throws in that game where I would expect a high school quarterback to hit them 10 out of 10.

I'm not quite certain what he's saying here. It appears he's saying that Fields missed throws that a HS QB would hit 10 out of 10 times. If he's penalizing him simply for throwing easy completions, he may want to reevaluate Mac Jones, whose offense was full of that stuff (granted Jones also threw plenty of more challenging stuff). Assuming he means Fields was missing those throws, I just don't get it. I re-watched the game quickly because I didn't recall Fields missing easy throws. And he didn't.

Fields threw a single incompletion before his ribs were destroyed, and it was an overthrow that was just past his receiver's hands about 50 yards downfield. Otherwise, prior to the injury, he had one or two balls that might not have been located well - one caused his WR to really elevate to make the catch - but were completions. He also threw a nice deep ball that traveled 55 yards in the air, and threw a TD through very tight coverage (granted he missed seeing an open guy), in addition to several solid completions on outbreaking routes.

I'm willing to cut him some slack after the injury, but he continued to deal. His first pass after the hit was a dime into the endzone while rolling out. After that, he seemed uncomfortable for a drive or two before settling down. He checked down a couple times, but the ball was on target. He missed deep downfield on a pass that he appeared to rush (skittish in the pocket; he was clearly worried about getting hit after the injury) and throw out of bounds, but it certainly wasn't an easy throw - thirty yards downfield from the opposite hash into coverage. He bounced back from that with a great ball down the middle of the field to his TE that just squeezed past the LB, and a great TD pass to the TE two plays later (I believe the intervening play was a rush).

He threw an INT on the first drive of the second half, showing some pretty questionable decision-making (triple coverage), but the ball was tipped at the line, so tough to say where it would have gone. Fair chance it would have been a borderline throwaway but for that. Came back from that for a LONG TD on the next drive. Arguably a hair late, but if you're dinging him for that, then Mac Jones has never thrown an accurate ball downfield in his life. Again, he had a throwaway and a checkdown in between, but those weren't missed throws. After that, he was a little slow on a WR screen concept, but it was an accurate ball.

Okay, found one. With Ohio State up 49-28, he threw an uncatchable ball to the TE with pressure in his face. I wouldn't critique that one, he was protecting a lead and avoided a negative play, but it's the worst ball he threw in this one. And after that he threw to Sermon downfield in double coverage. Bad decision, but I don't know if any NFL QBs make that throw and he placed it where it wasn't going to be picked.

Fields had six incomplete passes in this game. By my count, one was a deep overthrow that was about a yard from being a TD. One was a deep ball out of bounds that may have been a throwaway. One was the INT that was batted (granted seemingly a bad decision). One was a clear throwaway out of bounds. One was the rollout under pressure that I mentioned in the last paragraph. One was the forced ball to Sermon downfield. That's all of them, and I would love to ask Simms which of these he expects a high school QB to make. Now, there's reason to question Fields' decision-making at times, and a couple of his deep TDs were short, but those are the sorts of balls Mac Jones and our own Trey Lance threw repeatedly for TDs. And if Simms is talking about throwing TDs to wide open guys, well again, why have Mac Jones so high?

[Jikkle]

Florio always rubbed me the wrong way and when people complain about snooty elite journalists it's usually his type they are talking about. But I don't know the guy personally so he might be a great guy with some bad football opinions and I'm just stating the vibe he gives off.

Still blows my mind that some of these guys in the media can't grasp the concept that the 9ers traded up with someone in mind and would've been comfortable taking but with extra time did their due diligence to see if someone else changed their minds.

If your house shopping and the 1st house you visit you fall in love with doesn't mean you don't stop looking at other houses. You look closely at that 1st house to make sure it doesn't have termite damage and you look at other houses to see if you love them more. Then when it comes time to make a decision if you still love that 1st house the most you proceed to try to buy that house.

Whether Lance was the guy all along or not will be impossible to tell since whomever they picked was going to be the guy all along but I tend to believe they aren't lying when Lance was the leader in the clubhouse for the entire process.

He checks a lot of boxes that Shanahan would love.

Lance had the elite physical traits that Shanahan was looking for.

Lance has the smarts that Kyle loves.

Lance did a lot of things in college that he'd do under Kyle so it was easy for Kyle to envision how he'd look in his offense.

And it goes a bit underrated but Lance to me was the best out of all the QBs throwing on the move which Kyle covets because he likes to move his QB around a lot.

Yes Kyle wants a guy that will operate his offense but I believe Kyle realized he needs a guy that can make a play when things don't go according to plan which they don't always do.

Mac Jones would've operated the offense but like Jimmy G wouldn't do much if things went haywire and he had to play backyard football. Lance will operate Kyle's offense when it's working as intended but unlike Mac Jones or Jimmy G he'll be able to be like a Russel Wilson and pull some rabbits out of his hat by making some off schedule plays.

[Dodub]

Coming back to Chris Simms and his review of Fields, I just don't know what the dude is talking about. He had this to say about the Clemson game:

I know people talk about the Clemson game. I would challenge people to go back and watch it. I know there are some good throws, but there are a handful of throws in that game where I would expect a high school quarterback to hit them 10 out of 10.

I'm not quite certain what he's saying here. It appears he's saying that Fields missed throws that a HS QB would hit 10 out of 10 times. If he's penalizing him simply for throwing easy completions, he may want to reevaluate Mac Jones, whose offense was full of that stuff (granted Jones also threw plenty of more challenging stuff). Assuming he means Fields was missing those throws, I just don't get it. I re-watched the game quickly because I didn't recall Fields missing easy throws. And he didn't.

Fields threw a single incompletion before his ribs were destroyed, and it was an overthrow that was just past his receiver's hands about 50 yards downfield. Otherwise, prior to the injury, he had one or two balls that might not have been located well - one caused his WR to really elevate to make the catch - but were completions. He also threw a nice deep ball that traveled 55 yards in the air, and threw a TD through very tight coverage (granted he missed seeing an open guy), in addition to several solid completions on outbreaking routes.

I'm willing to cut him some slack after the injury, but he continued to deal. His first pass after the hit was a dime into the endzone while rolling out. After that, he seemed uncomfortable for a drive or two before settling down. He checked down a couple times, but the ball was on target. He missed deep downfield on a pass that he appeared to rush (skittish in the pocket; he was clearly worried about getting hit after the injury) and throw out of bounds, but it certainly wasn't an easy throw - thirty yards downfield from the opposite hash into coverage. He bounced back from that with a great ball down the middle of the field to his TE that just squeezed past the LB, and a great TD pass to the TE two plays later (I believe the intervening play was a rush).

He threw an INT on the first drive of the second half, showing some pretty questionable decision-making (triple coverage), but the ball was tipped at the line, so tough to say where it would have gone. Fair chance it would have been a borderline throwaway but for that. Came back from that for a LONG TD on the next drive. Arguably a hair late, but if you're dinging him for that, then Mac Jones has never thrown an accurate ball downfield in his life. Again, he had a throwaway and a checkdown in between, but those weren't missed throws. After that, he was a little slow on a WR screen concept, but it was an accurate ball.

Okay, found one. With Ohio State up 49-28, he threw an uncatchable ball to the TE with pressure in his face. I wouldn't critique that one, he was protecting a lead and avoided a negative play, but it's the worst ball he threw in this one. And after that he threw to Sermon downfield in double coverage. Bad decision, but I don't know if any NFL QBs make that throw and he placed it where it wasn't going to be picked.

Fields had six incomplete passes in this game. By my count, one was a deep overthrow that was about a yard from being a TD. One was a deep ball out of bounds that may have been a throwaway. One was the INT that was batted (granted seemingly a bad decision). One was a clear throwaway out of bounds. One was the rollout under pressure that I mentioned in the last paragraph. One was the forced ball to Sermon downfield. That's all of them, and I would love to ask Simms which of these he expects a high school QB to make. Now, there's reason to question Fields' decision-making at times, and a couple of his deep TDs were short, but those are the sorts of balls Mac Jones and our own Trey Lance threw repeatedly for TDs. And if Simms is talking about throwing TDs to wide open guys, well again, why have Mac Jones so high?

90% of the time Chris Simms is talking out of his butt. He even said that he doesn’t watch college football and he only studied film on the QB’s for a week before he started going on shows and giving his evaluation. That’s why guys like JTO who sit down and break down film, don’t take hun seriously.

He went on record many times of saying that you don’t trade up for a super high talent player who needs a little work, you trade up for guys who are pro ready and not as talented. That mindset is how Mitch Trubisky is drafted ahead of Mahomes and Watson.

[Dodub]

Florio always rubbed me the wrong way and when people complain about snooty elite journalists it's usually his type they are talking about. But I don't know the guy personally so he might be a great guy with some bad football opinions and I'm just stating the vibe he gives off.

Still blows my mind that some of these guys in the media can't grasp the concept that the 9ers traded up with someone in mind and would've been comfortable taking but with extra time did their due diligence to see if someone else changed their minds.

If your house shopping and the 1st house you visit you fall in love with doesn't mean you don't stop looking at other houses. You look closely at that 1st house to make sure it doesn't have termite damage and you look at other houses to see if you love them more. Then when it comes time to make a decision if you still love that 1st house the most you proceed to try to buy that house.

Whether Lance was the guy all along or not will be impossible to tell since whomever they picked was going to be the guy all along but I tend to believe they aren't lying when Lance was the leader in the clubhouse for the entire process.

He checks a lot of boxes that Shanahan would love.

Lance had the elite physical traits that Shanahan was looking for.

Lance has the smarts that Kyle loves.

Lance did a lot of things in college that he'd do under Kyle so it was easy for Kyle to envision how he'd look in his offense.

And it goes a bit underrated but Lance to me was the best out of all the QBs throwing on the move which Kyle covets because he likes to move his QB around a lot.

Yes Kyle wants a guy that will operate his offense but I believe Kyle realized he needs a guy that can make a play when things don't go according to plan which they don't always do.

Mac Jones would've operated the offense but like Jimmy G wouldn't do much if things went haywire and he had to play backyard football. Lance will operate Kyle's offense when it's working as intended but unlike Mac Jones or Jimmy G he'll be able to be like a Russel Wilson and pull some rabbits out of his hat by making some off schedule plays.

Florio just looks sleazy. After we traded up I watched him make hot take after hot take. He was sure that we were absolutely in love with Mac and Mac was the dream QB for every NFL team, so when we took him the other GM’s would cry themselves to sleep.

We saw this offseason just how much guesswork goes into the media. The media 100% guessed that the 49ers traded up for Mac Jones and they ran with it, after a while it became reality even though the actual decision makers were tight lipped.