State of the 49ers: DAWSON (K) SIGNED

[and1GS]

As our offseason begins we should start assessing our strengths, weaknesses and needs seeing as teams like the Raiders have a 2 month head start on us

What we learned
I think the main thing we learned, which did not become evident until late in the season, was that depth is imperative to your success in the NFL. It's a violent game and you will lose important players. With Hunter and Mannignham back we should still look to increase our back-up quality level.

Justin Smith is really really important...but what this shined a light on is that our front 3 isn't all that good. Yes, Justin is next level good, but I read a Maiocco column saying what I'd been thinking for years...Sopoaga is bottom of the NFL ineffective at NT. Now it's been statistically proven. Getting a 3-4 DT is damn near impossible unless you draft him, and it's even harder when you're trying to make the jump from an average talent to an exemplary one, but if we had two guys warranting 2 blockers on any given play that would be a huge advantage. McDonald is fine, but I think we should look to replace Sopoaga.

DaShon Goldson is gonna get paid...probably not by us.

Chris Culliver is a good nickelback, but not a #2 corner. He had mental lapses at the end of the season and still has brain farts that cost us huge plays. We need someone to challenge him for that #3 corner spot.

Kaep is good. Like really good. Like, best QB in the NFL for the next 10 years good. Rodgers/Brady/Brees make up the top 3 right now, but Ryan showed he's a puss in big games and Flacco is hot and cold, Kaep will join that upper echelon very soon and be a top 4 QB.

I could go on...but that would be too much text so here are my needs for the offseason:

1) A #2 caliber CB: Rogers is fading fast, Tarell is good enough and Culliver is about a year away from starting. We got torched at CB throughout the playoffs, our secondary is an area of major concern.

2) Re-sign Goldson and draft Matt Elam. or Let Goldson go and draft Matt Elam. Either way, Whitner is partially to blame for our secondary issues...who am I kidding, he's an in the box safety that has mental lapses in coverage, he's almost entirely to blame for our secondary issues.

Elam is Whitner right now, with a higher ceiling in pass coverage. Unfortunately, he's Whitner's size so we still need a Goldson out there.

3) A 3-4 DT> I understand this is damn near impossible to get so I'm not holding my breath here.

4) Integrate A.J. Jenkins into the offense, or make a splash for a tall free agent WR.

What do you guys think? Post whatever the heck you want, let's just get some activity in this forum.

[gswhoops]

Good points all around.

Overall I'm very excited about the future of this team. We have a lot of great pieces in place, and a great coach to make it all work. We've got most of the critical positions (QB, OT, pass rusher) covered very well, and we have a lot of talented young players. Most of the other teams in SB contention have real questions about age. Other than Justin Smith (who's only 33 himself) and Carlos Rogers (31), all of our critical guys are under 30. Most are 25 and under (!).

Right now I would say our biggest positions of need are: defensive line (NT and 3-4 DE), strong safety, wide receiver, cornerback and rush LB. Luckily, we already have 4 picks in the first three rounds and could probably pick up another with an Alex Smith trade. Also luckily, this year's draft is very deep in a lot of the positions we need: safety, corner, defensive line, WR

Some guys I like for us:

DL: John Jenkins, Jesse Williams, Datone Jones
LB: Corey Lemonier, Sean Porter, Chase Thomas
CB: Jonathan Banks, Desmond Trufant, Logan Ryan, Jordan Poyer
SS: Jonathan Cyprien, Duke Williams
WR: Quinton Patton, Markus Wheaton

I think my ideal draft would look something like this:

1st - Jonathan Banks, CB, Mississippi State
2nd (Smith trade) - Datone Jones, DE/DT, UCLA
2nd (ours) - Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech
3rd (Carolina) - Sean Porter, DE/OLB, Texas A&M
3rd (ours) - Duke Williams, SS, Nevada

The later rounds I would focus more on grabbing the best players available as opposed to guys who play positions we need; although we definitely need to draft a kicker. I would hope Montee Ball or Le'Veon Bell drop to the mid rounds so we can pick one of them up to be our specialty bruiser back (kind of what Jacobs was supposed to be).

The other thing we should think hard about IMO is moving up or consolidating picks. We have 14 (including 4 in the first 3 rounds) and there are a lot of teams hurting for picks (Oakland, Cleveland, Chicago, New Orleans) who might be willing to move down in exchange for some mid day picks. If we move up, I'd target Jonathan Hankins, Sharrif Floyd or Kenny Vaccaro in particular.

[gswhoops]

More fuel for the D-Line fire: http://football.realgm.com/src_wiretap_ ... n_defense/

Both Smith and Ray McDonald were in the top 4 in defensive snaps over the last two years.

[and1GS]

Harbaugh's comments about Goldson were encouraging, he's integral to what we do on defense.

[gswhoops]

Yeah, I'd be surprised if we didn't hammer out a deal with Goldson. You never know until it's done, but I expect him to be back next year.

[thesack12]

The secondary and wide receiving corps are the most obvious areas that need to be addressed and upgraded. Havent really digested the free agent market or draft too much as of yet, so dont have much of a take on a potential plan.

Will say that if a Revis for Smith deal is even somewhat possible, I would add whatever draft picks necessary to get that deal done. Having Revis completely shut down one side of the field, would open up so many things for the defense overall. The safetines could roll more coverage over to the 2nd corner, and the pass rush would get a lot more time make plays up front. Its probably all a pipe dream though.

[and1GS]

Revis is going to ask for more than he's worth. Like, a crippling high amount.

Nnamdi might get cut, we should give him a look.

[thesack12]

^ Personally would rather trade for/extend Revis than pay Goldson. Can easily get by with a cheaper pair of safeties with Revis being more than capable of locking down one side of the field by himself.

Don't get me wrong I like Dashon, and definitely want to retain him. But if Revis is indeed in play and it becomes an either or type thing, I pick Revis every time.

Yeah if Nnamdi gets cut, Frisco should absolutely inquire. He was a colossal bust for Philly, so thats a concern. That said everybody in Philly underwhelmed the last couple seasons. We know Nnamdi is capable of playing at a very high level. Not sure if they can sign him within the cap structure or not though.

[and1GS]

Ya I was calling this all season, Culliver is great in deep coverage, that superbowl was an anomaly. He's young and learning, and has a ton of potential. Remember, just last year Tarell Brown was a POS until the Texas man started hookin em horns and beastin.

CBs have a very short shelf life, and the best ones are generally very young. Takes them at least a year in the NFL to adjust and then they either develop the skills/balls to play at this level or don't. But this is also why I don't think going after Revis is a good idea. Dude's 27, he doesn't have many good years left.

Exhibit A: Champ Bailey. Nobody knew he wasn't his old self until he got lit up in the postseason, looking old and slow.

Exhibit B: Nnamdi. Dude was the best CB in the NFL and now he's just kinda OK and probably better as a safety.

CBs abilities nowadays are so highly predicated on athletic ability and speed. You literally need to backpedal as fast as receivers can sprint, and when you lose a half a step you're done for. It's not like MLB where guys like Ray Lewis can lose a step and still be serviceable (or better), you're toast if you can't keep up at CB.

Revis is coming off a big injury and unless we're swapping him and Rogers, I don't see the point.

[thesack12]

Culliver was terrible all playoffs wasn't just the super bowl. Don't know if the stage progressively got too big for him and the pressure getting ramped up adversely affected him or what, but his play got worse every round. He got routinely roasted by Atlanta as well as Baltimore. The one pick he had against Atlanta was only because Roddy slipped and fell on his route. You can't singlehandedly blame the bowl loss on Culliver, but he definitely had one of (if not the) biggest hand in the outcome. He was responsible for like 5 crippling plays, where if any single one of them resulted differently the 49ers are the likely super bowl champs. Not saying Frisco should dump him, but relying on him as one of your top 2 corners is risky business.

Champ Bailey is soon to be 35 years old, and he has played at a very high level for basically ever. He had a solid season, however his weakness was exposed in the playoffs. He can no longer cover speedster wideouts consistently, because his speed is on the decline due to his advanced age.

Asomugha was a bad fit for Philly's scheme before he ever arrived there. Not to mention Philly was using a converted offensive line coach as their defensive coordinator. These are probably the biggest reasons for his struggles. Plus basically no Eagle played well the last couple seasons, its like they were poisoning the catered food in the locker room or something.

When he is healthy, Revis is the definiton of a shut down corner. He is arguably the best defensive player in the entire league. His skills and presence on the field has a monumental impact on the entire defense. Safeties can roll coverage to the other side, hence helping the 2nd and nickel corners. Revis shutting down the outside gives more time for the frontline to get pressure, the extra safety help on the other side prevents that outlet which also gets the frontline more time. Not to mention opposing teams gameplan around going away from Revis, don't underestimate the value and impact of that. Basically Revis was EASILY the biggest reason those Jets teams were a top caliber defense, they had almost zero pass rush.

27 years old is hardly old, its really the early prime age. Yes, the injury is a concern. However, he got injured very early in the season (week 4 I believe), and recent history has shown than blown out knee ligaments are not only no longer a death blow, but those players can and do return swiftly and play at a extremely high level. AP and Charles immediately comes to mind, and those guys went down MUCH later the previous season than Revis did, and knees strenght and mobility are much more concerning for RB's.

If people don't want to go after Revis for whatever reason, thats fine. But Frisco simply will not be able to get a player who will make a bigger impact on the team. I don't know about anybody else, but I sure as hell want more impact for this offseason's additions than last offseason provided. Moss, Manningham, Jenkins, Jacobs all provided next to nothing.

Either way the secndary is clearly the weak point of the defense, and needs to be addressed. I would rather not return with the same group that got absolutely used the final 2 playoff games. Those games are on tape also, so every opposing team next season is going to be able to see what worked against that secondary.

[thesack12]

Another thing I would look into would be Kenny Britt's availability. I don't know if the Titans would consider moving him, but I could see them possibly getting tired of all his off-field issues and maybe wanting to move on.

I believe the 9ers have 12 picks in this draft, thats a lot. They will also probably get an additional mid round pick for Alex. So they certainly have some ammo to trade some picks for immediate help. Perhaps one of Frisco's 3rds could pluck Britt away from Tennesee. There would be some inherit risk, getting Britt. But this team is so close and could afford a risk or two. Britt's issues are off-field, by all accounts he is not a headcase nor problem in the lockerroom or on the field. A simple change of scenery and breath of fresh air going to a good team, might get Britt on the up and up. He is putting his injury concerns behind him as well. He should be entirely healthy after this offseason.

Trading Alex might very well net Frisco a replacement 3rd rounder also. If all that happens, Frisco would get a playmaker on Britt at a position of much need and still gain extra cap space because Britt's number isnt as high as Alex's is.

Update: Just read that the Vikings are going to attempt to trade Percy Harvin. I would definitely look into that, but Minny is probably going to want a monster package for him. Plus, he is bad seed in the locker room. He has reportedly clashed with both Childress and Frazier and sum assistant coaches as well. Apparently he embarassed Frazier with a long profanity laced tirade in front the entire team last season. His chronic migraine issues are a concern as well. There really isnt much you can do to treat those and they can pop up anytime and are really a concern for life. So he is a guy to look into becuase he is very talented and versatile, but I wouldnt fall over myself to get him.

[Nicky Nix Nook]

Update: Just read that the Vikings are going to attempt to trade Percy Harvin. I would definitely look into that, but Minny is probably going to want a monster package for him. Plus, he is bad seed in the locker room. He has reportedly clashed with both Childress and Frazier and sum assistant coaches as well. Apparently he embarassed Frazier with a long profanity laced tirade in front the entire team last season. His chronic migraine issues are a concern as well. There really isnt much you can do to treat those and they can pop up anytime and are really a concern for life. So he is a guy to look into becuase he is very talented and versatile, but I wouldnt fall over myself to get him.

I think one of our biggest strengths is our chemistry so I'd steer clear. You could say that joining a positive, winning environment could help, and that may be true, but I wouldn't risk it.

[Nicky Nix Nook]

Update: Just read that the Vikings are going to attempt to trade Percy Harvin. I would definitely look into that, but Minny is probably going to want a monster package for him. Plus, he is bad seed in the locker room. He has reportedly clashed with both Childress and Frazier and sum assistant coaches as well. Apparently he embarassed Frazier with a long profanity laced tirade in front the entire team last season. His chronic migraine issues are a concern as well. There really isnt much you can do to treat those and they can pop up anytime and are really a concern for life. So he is a guy to look into becuase he is very talented and versatile, but I wouldnt fall over myself to get him.

I think one of our biggest strengths is our chemistry so I'd steer clear. You could say that joining a positive, winning environment could help, and that may be true, but I wouldn't risk it.

[and1GS]

27 is probably middle of prime for a CB. It's not a regular position in that area, it's a young man's position. I also wouldn't say knees and mobility limitations due to injury are more concerning to RBs than CBs, I'd say it's just the opposite. RBs can run between the tackles, catch the ball, run it outside, blah blah basically they can do a ton of stuff. If a RB loses a half a step they can still be effective unless their game is 100% predicated on speed (Chris Johnson).

Effectiveness at CB is probably 80% or more dependent on how fast you can run laterally and in a straight line as well as your agility. If you lose a step, you switch to safety, but you cannot play CB at a high level anymore. If you're paying a guy as much as Revis will demand (talking $12+ mill) that's unacceptable. I suppose this is just my philosophy on it, based on being interested by the CB position for the longest time. IMO it's the hardest position to play since you're at such a disadvantage all the time.

I'd pass on Harvin as well. Though kenny Britt is very intriguing. They have another WR out there in the same mold, name's escaping me, so they might be willing to move Britt. I think he would fit right in here as the #2 and come relatively cheap.

[and1GS]

What are we looking to get for Alex Smith? IMO the market for him is much smaller than many will admit. His only suitors will be Zona, Cle, Buffalo and Jax.

KC and NYJ are possibilities too, though I highly doubt either happen. The former already has Sand Cassells who is roughly the same player and the latter has too much money allotted to QB as is. They're going to have to bite the bullet with Sanchez for several years.

[gswhoops]

What are we looking to get for Alex Smith? IMO the market for him is much smaller than many will admit. His only suitors will be Zona, Cle, Buffalo and Jax.

KC and NYJ are possibilities too, though I highly doubt either happen. The former already has Sand Cassells who is roughly the same player and the latter has too much money allotted to QB as is. They're going to have to bite the bullet with Sanchez for several years.

I don't think Baalke will trade Smith to an NFC West team so Arizona is probably off the table. Cleveland, Buffalo, Jacksonville all make sense. I agree with you that the Jets will probably not make a play for him, since they have so much money committed to Sanchez and are already in cap hell.

I think KC is a strong possibility though. Smith is a good fit for Reid's style of offense, and they're a good QB away from contending for a wild card spot IMO. Cassel is absolutely NOT roughly the same player as Smith though. Alex would be a HUGE upgrade for them. If I were in charge, I would rather send a 2nd rounder for Smith and draft Joeckel #1 than be pigeonholed into taking Geno Smith (who will be solid but nothing special IMO) #1.

Oakland might also be a possibility. Palmer is getting up there in age and clearly isn't the answer at QB. No one else on their roster is capable of starting.

[and1GS]

They shouldn't draft Geno at all, but I don't think Smith is a 'huge' upgrade over Cassell. Upgrade, sure, but that team will run roughly the same with Alex in there instead.

If the Raiders get Smith that would add another in the long line of players they take from us after they're past their prime. Also, they don't have a 2nd rounder.

[gswhoops]

They shouldn't draft Geno at all, but I don't think Smith is a 'huge' upgrade over Cassell. Upgrade, sure, but that team will run roughly the same with Alex in there instead.

If the Raiders get Smith that would add another in the long line of players they take from us after they're past their prime. Also, they don't have a 2nd rounder.

I think he's a pretty substantial upgrade over Cassel, which would be worth it IMO. I don't think there's any chance that team goes 2-14 with Smith at the helm.

[and1GS]

Agreed, though they would still stink. Probably 6-10.

[and1GS]

I think we have to go DT or safety in the draft, DT would probably be the easiest though I fully expect us to cut Whitner leaving a huge hole at FS. A strong backup DT is imperative to our success though, as we really need to start subbing out our front 3 far more often. Wear and tear lost us the SB just as much as anything else.