Mid January Draft

[radtech]

The draft keeps getting deeper and deeper talent wise with so many under class men declaring and today 2 Stanford players, Cameron Flemming, OT and Ed Reynolds, FS, also are now part of the draft.

The Niners will several small holes to fill, a new starter at SS is needed, depth at WR, CB, OL, DL, and as always looking for special teamers.

This could be the most important off season yet in terms of extending or offering contracts to free agents. Colin, Aldon, and Crabtree are all due massive pay raises soon. The only players that will be free agents after the season that should be re-signed hopefully are Boldin, Dawson, and maybe Eric Wright,

Round 1: Odell Beckham, WR, having Boldin back with Patton and Beckham as reserves.
Round 2: EJ Gaines, another young corner with Culliver, Brock, Wright, and maybe Morris.
Round 2: Ed Reynolds, FS, I know he's not a SS, but he is a playmaker and the 49ers want they safeties to pass protect first and maybe slide Reid to SS to guard against the bigger TEs in the league.
Round 3: Jeremy Hill, RB, one thing that I don't understand while Gore's age rises, Kendall Hunter's playing time decreases. Why with Latimore in the wings, his health for one and still need a short yardage big back not named Dixon.
Round 3: Josh Mauro, DT, see him play and wonder if he could eventually replace Justin Smith? Country strong and plays a position of need.
Round 4: Tyler Larsen, C, someone to push Kilgore.
Round 4: Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana, built more like Boldin and if Boldin is not resigned.
Round 5: Trey Burton, FB/TE/WR, Florida, now they found they new Delaine Walker.
Round 6: Spencer Long, G, Nebraska, out for the season with a leg injury so will do a "Lattimore" and wait for him.
Round 7: Not a clue

I would like to see the Niners swoop in and get in a trade of Jonathan Martin of the Dolphins. A very talented player who can play guard or tackle replacing Snyder. A Quinton Dial, Kendall Hunter, and exchange of fourth round picks. Lattimore and Hill repalces Hunter and Dixon. A free agent to keep in mind Christian Ponder if let go by Minnesota. A mobile QB with some talent and some holes in his game.

[gswhoops]

I think CB is a bigger need than WR, honestly. We rarely have more than 2 real WRs on the field (most of the time we go 3-wide Vernon is flexed out) and assuming we can get Crabtree and Boldin extended, we should be fine with Patton and a 2nd/3rd round rookie rounding out the WR corps. OTOH, our CB situation is in major flux - Brown is a FA, Rogers is a near-lock to be a cap casualty and Culliver is coming off a torn ACL. Brock is the only one of our top 4 corners without a major question mark. And Wright is also a FA.

A lot of our draft strategy is going to depend on how the extensions/negotiations go with guys like Crabtree, Iupati, Brown, Whitner...my guess is that we end up keeping Crabs and Brown and letting Iupati/Whitner test the market

My ideal draft would look something like this:

Rd 1: Jason Verrett, TCU - CB to bolster depth and add talent. A little undersized but great cover skills
Rd 2 (KC): Davante Adams, Fresno State - Big WR with deceptive speed and great hands.
Rd 2: Deone Bucannan, Washington State - young SS to compliment Reid/replace Whitner if he walks
Rd 3 (TEN): Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State - big mauling OG in the Iupati mold
Rd 3: Dominique Easley - high productivity DL with an injury, potential future replacement for Smith/McDonald down the line. Medical redshirt in the Tank Carradine mold
Rd 3 (comp): Tyler Larsen, Utah State - another C to compete with Kilgore to be Goodwin's replacement
Rd 4: Robert Herron, Wyoming - smallish WR with great speed, potential slot WR. Also has experience at RB and could become an offensive swiss army knife. Also potential PR/KR.
Rd 5: Aaron Murray, Georgia - developmental QB and potential long term backup for Kap. Lack of elite size and injury pushed his stock down, but he is a very good passer and has extensive experience in a pro style offense.
Rd 6: Tyler Starr, South Dakota. Small-school LB who has apparently impressed at Shrine Week. Could be groomed in the Dan Skuta mold as ILB/OLB and ST guy
Rd 7 (all): Best players available.

[gswhoops]

Another guy to keep an eye on (Shrine Week standout) is Louisiana Tech DT Justin Ellis. 350lbs and apparently moves like a wrecking ball. Could be a potential NT.

[radtech]

Good call on some of the 49ers needs, I do agree CB is a bigger need, good thing the two deepest positions in the draft are what the Niners need.

Boldin should be a priority to resigned but the last several years injuries seem to hit the WRs corps heavy.
Brown, Wright, maybe Rogers are free agents so spending multiple picks at corner is needed.

Odell Beckham or a WR with deep deed could and will change the dynamic of their offense. No longer will Gore or his eventually replacement will see 8 or 9 men in the box. Beckham speed will make any defense protect against the deep ball.

With the draft so deep at corner, the Niners should draft multiple corners and hopefully find a gem like Marcus Cooper, this time hold onto him.

[gswhoops]

Good call on some of the 49ers needs, I do agree CB is a bigger need, good thing the two deepest positions in the draft are what the Niners need.

Boldin should be a priority to resigned but the last several years injuries seem to hit the WRs corps heavy.
Brown, Wright, maybe Rogers are free agents so spending multiple picks at corner is needed.

Odell Beckham or a WR with deep deed could and will change the dynamic of their offense. No longer will Gore or his eventually replacement will see 8 or 9 men in the box. Beckham speed will make any defense protect against the deep ball.

With the draft so deep at corner, the Niners should draft multiple corners and hopefully find a gem like Marcus Cooper, this time hold onto him.

Pretty much agree on all counts. We're lucky that this draft is deep at positions we need (WR, CB, C) and thin at positions we don't (OT, DT, S).

I think we do need to add speed to the WR corps. If we can get teams to use more 2-deep safety coverage that will open things up underneath and in the run game. Between Crabtree, Davis, Boldin and Patton we have a lot of guys who are great in the short and intermediate passing game but don't have the pure speed to take the top off a defense.

Where I disagree is that I don't think Beckham is that guy. He gets labelled a speed guy because of his size, but he really doesn't have that elite speed. Most projections I've seen have him in the mid/high 4.4's which is good but not great considering he's not a big WR. If we're looking for a downfield threat, I like Adams a lot because he has good size and "deceptive" (per CBS Sports) vertical speed. I could see us picking two WRs (like I have): a more all-purpose guy early (Adams, Landry, Matthews, Robinson, etc.) and a pure speed guy later.

I also see us picking multiple DBs - at least one corner, probably two, and a safety as well.

[GS Warriors 1]

Wouldn't surprise me at all if the 49ers traded up for Dennard or Clinton in the teens, secondary depth appears to be an issue and I don't think the team is going to want to hand out a long-term deal to Whitner. They are probably going to need to come out of the draft with a starting CB or S.

[gswhoops]

Wouldn't surprise me at all if the 49ers traded up for Dennard or Clinton in the teens, secondary depth appears to be an issue and I don't think the team is going to want to hand out a long-term deal to Whitner. They are probably going to need to come out of the draft with a starting CB or S.

Yeah, this draft's strategy is particularly dependant on what happens with Brown, Boldin and Whitner. Who we lose out of that group is probably going to dictate which positions we target early.

[thesack12]

I haven't had a lot of time to digest this year's draft yet, I will post some more later after I do.

But my early evaluation is pretty much a mirror of last season. Yet Again, WR and the secondary are far away the biggest concerns on this team.

Crabtree and Patton are the only WR's on the roster guaranteed to be back (Boldin is a free agent this offseason). Patton is the only WR guaranteed to be back in 2015 (Crab is a free agent in 2015). After Crab and Patton there is nothing, and I mean ZERO on the roster at WR. WR is a MONUMENTAL need for this team. Even if Boldin re-ups, which I think he will, its still a huge need. Boldin will be 34 next seson, and has a TON of miles on him because he plays WR like an RB, and there is decent potential Crab leaves in 2015. Now is the time to grab and develop a quality young receiver. Receiever's take time to develop, and you really want to have your young WR's around a guy like AnQuan Boldin (assuming he is resigned). Actually double dipping is probably in the team's best interest. If they do double down, one of them should probably be a speed guy. I agree with GSW that he offensse definitely could uses some speed, especially at WR. Kaep and VD are the fastest guys on offense, thats not necessarily a great thing.

If you dont think WR is a huge need for this team, all you have to do is consider that Bruce Miller (The freaking fullback) was the 3rd leading receiver on the tam at the time he got hurt in week 14.. Also it wasn't until like week 15 that somebody other than either Boldin or VD had a receiving TD, and that was Crab. God forbid this team be without Crab/Boldin/VD again, whether it be free agecy or injury or whatever, this team will be in major trouble again. Need to be pro-active here.

As for the secondary it again is a huge need. Reid is the only guy cemented in back there. Brock will be back as well, he played pretty well, but nobody can be sure he will be up to the task of being a #1 or #2 CB. Tarell Brown is a FA, and I think the team makes a push to keep him, but they probably can't pay him market value with a handful of core players nearing necessary extensions. Its all but a given that Carlos Rogers will be cut. Culliver will be back, and he will help. But we cant forget his truly awful 2012 playoff performance, plus the fact that he will be coming off a major knee injury and will have missed a calendar year. Most of what I'm hearing is saying that Whitner is likely moving on as well. So that leaves 3 major ? marks in the secondary, the same secondary that was already clearly the weakest link of the defense. Secondary needs to be addressed early in the draft, and unless they make major offseason moves elsewhere they probably need to come out of the draft with as many as 4 secondary prospects.

Other positions, I feel need a little attention are 1) Inside LB depth. We can only hope Bowman returns to 100% his old self, and obviously the sooner the better. In the meantime Frisco can't count on him being ready for the start of the season, so they need another guy to put in there when need be. 2) Developmental backup QB. I'm not a fan of McCoy. I actually think he might return next season as the backup, but Frisco needs a better option. Harbaugh is QB master, getting a young QB to groom now with a plethora of picks available is a good idea.

[thesack12]

Touched on this in the offseason thread, but its more relevant here.

I think Frisco needs to target guys who also offer value on special teams, in addition to their offensive or defensive skills, especially in the mid to late rounds. Once again, the special teams weren't nearly good enough. Frisco needs better players/execution in those areas. However, roster space is extremely valuable, so IMO having special teams only guys like Osgood, isnt a good course of action. They need guys who have value in more than one facet of the game. Which is why I think extending Anthony Dixon should be a priority.

I dont know how many of those type guys are available, but at the very least they need to draft a much more dynamic/better option in the return games

[gswhoops]

Touched on this in the offseason thread, but its more relevant here.

I think Frisco needs to target guys who also offer value on special teams, in addition to their offensive or defensive skills, especially in the mid to late rounds. Once again, the special teams weren't nearly good enough. Frisco needs better players/execution in those areas. However, roster space is extremely valuable, so IMO having special teams only guys like Osgood, isnt a good course of action. They need guys who have value in more than one facet of the game. Which is why I think extending Anthony Dixon should be a priority.

I dont know how many of those type guys are available, but at the very least they need to draft a much more dynamic/better option in the return games

This is a good point, and one I think the Niners' brass shares. For the guys who aren't starters, they better bring ST value as well or else they're probably going to be cut. I think this is a much stronger consideration on Day 3 of the draft though. Depending on how badly we get hit in FA, we may need to replace most of our starting secondary, add WR depth/talent, and pickup a replacement for Goodwin.

We have six rd 1-3 picks, and I could see us needing all of them just to replace FA losses and patch roster holes (a WR or two, 2 CBs, a safety, an interior OL)

[WarFan]

We have six rd 1-3 picks, and I could see us needing all of them just to replace FA losses and patch roster holes (a WR or two, 2 CBs, a safety, an interior OL)

Agreed, except for the OL. I think those first six picks will be 2 WR's and 3 DB's with the sixth moved for a 2015 pick or to move up.

From early prospect rankings/mocks I prefer a haul like this:
WR Allen Robinson, Penn St - replaces Boldin or Crabtree in a year
DB LaMarcus Joyner, Florida St - slot corner, utility DB
S Ahmad Dixon, Baylor - Whitner replacement
CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste, Nebraska - big playmaking CB would probably start in a year
WR Martavius Bryant, Clemson - really raw but great size/speed prospect who'd make a nice deep threat for Kap

Then target OL, QB, TE and maybe a RB later. Now that the team is a consistent playoff force I much prefer drafting OL later and letting them develop a couple years before starting instead of drafting OL early, as Baalke has done since Iupati/Davis. I fully expect one of Kilgore/Looney to take the starting C spot.

[gswhoops]

We have six rd 1-3 picks, and I could see us needing all of them just to replace FA losses and patch roster holes (a WR or two, 2 CBs, a safety, an interior OL)

Agreed, except for the OL. I think those first six picks will be 2 WR's and 3 DB's with the sixth moved for a 2015 pick or to move up.

From early prospect rankings/mocks I prefer a haul like this:
WR Allen Robinson, Penn St
DB LaMarcus Joyner, Florida St
S Ahmad Dixon, Baylor
CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste, Nebraska
WR Martavius Bryant, Clemson

Then target OL, QB, TE and maybe a RB later.

That wouldn't be a bad haul at all, although I do think we need an interior offensive lineman. Goodwin is expensive and declining, and our depth on the interior is thin especially if the plan is to move Kilgore into the starting center spot. Snyder is both old and nothing special, and Looney has shown nothing in two years.

I think my ideal haul would be something like this (assuming Brown and Boldin stay but Whitner walks):

Use 30 + 77 or 62 to trade up for Mike Evans
56 on Deone Bucannan
62/77 on the top CB (I like Jaylen Watkins from Florida)
94 - Robert Herron
Comp - Bryan Stork

Try and draft Colvin as a redshirt in the 4th/5th round and spend the rest as needed on ST guys and depth. I'd also like to try and take advantage of a deep QB class to grab a developmental prospect in the middle rounds.

[WarFan]

As a fan it's nearly impossible to know what reserves are capable of especially linemen but i have faith in the coaches to groom these guys. Besides Looney they also kept Bykowski and another guy on the PS all year and Marquardt on NFI. I think adding another 4th or 5th round prospect is enough, but we'll only really know what they think of the line after the draft. Or if they sign Kilgore to a Boone/Williams style extension early in the offseason.

[gswhoops]

As a fan it's nearly impossible to know what reserves are capable of especially linemen but i have faith in the coaches to groom these guys. Besides Looney they also kept Bykowski and another guy on the PS all year and Marquardt on NFI. I think adding another 4th or 5th round prospect is enough, but we'll only really know what they think of the line after the draft. Or if they sign Kilgore to a Boone/Williams style extension early in the offseason.

Fair enough. Obviously the FO and coaching staff have a much better handle on these guys than the layperson fan.

[thesack12]

Touched on this in the offseason thread, but its more relevant here.

I think Frisco needs to target guys who also offer value on special teams, in addition to their offensive or defensive skills, especially in the mid to late rounds. Once again, the special teams weren't nearly good enough. Frisco needs better players/execution in those areas. However, roster space is extremely valuable, so IMO having special teams only guys like Osgood, isnt a good course of action. They need guys who have value in more than one facet of the game. Which is why I think extending Anthony Dixon should be a priority.

I dont know how many of those type guys are available, but at the very least they need to draft a much more dynamic/better option in the return games

This is a good point, and one I think the Niners' brass shares. For the guys who aren't starters, they better bring ST value as well or else they're probably going to be cut. I think this is a much stronger consideration on Day 3 of the draft though. Depending on how badly we get hit in FA, we may need to replace most of our starting secondary, add WR depth/talent, and pickup a replacement for Goodwin.

We have six rd 1-3 picks, and I could see us needing all of them just to replace FA losses and patch roster holes (a WR or two, 2 CBs, a safety, an interior OL)

Agree with this.

But I also side with Warfan's stance on the O-line. I dont think that interior O-lineman is that big of a concern. There are a couple different in house candidates to replace Goodwin, namely Kilgore. Some depth is obviously an asset, but IMO its better to grab of those type guys in the 5th at the earliest.

[gswhoops]

This mock draft simulator is pretty decent, although a bit weird with high picks sometimes. http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/

The best Niners mock I've gotten so far:

30 - Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
56 - Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt
61 - Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State
77 - Ahmad Dixon, SS, Baylor
94 - Dominique Easley, DT, Florida
125 - Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State
158 - Logan Thomas, QB, Virginia Tech
189 - Aaron Colvin, CB, Oklahoma
219 - Gabe Ikard, C, Oklahoma
220 - Shaquille Evans, WR, UCLA
222 - Tyler Starr, LB, South Dakota State

Yes, three cornerbacks. I thought the value of Roby at 61 was too good to pass up, and Colvin is a medical redshirt anyway. Easley is also probably a redshirt for a good portion if not all of 2014, but he was a top-20 talent before his injury so I think he's worth it. In addition to the CBs, Matthews, Dixon and Hyde ought to be able to make an immediate impact. I tend to think Thomas will be overdrafted (i.e. 3rd round, not the bottom of the 5th) but he has rare size and skills if they can be refined.

I thought about drafting Dri Archer (Kent State) over Evans in the seventh, and if end up trading LMJ I probably would. But right now we barely use LaMike as is, so I didn't see the logic in drafting another. Gilbert can also contribute in the return game.

[WarFan]

I don't like red shirting a pick that high. Has to be a third day pick IMO if that's the plan from the get go.

[gswhoops]

I don't like red shirting a pick that high. Has to be a third day pick IMO if that's the plan from the get go.

I would agree unless we're able to cover most of our needs earlier in the draft, which I was able to do in this iteration.

I was targeting an interior OL for that pick but all of the rd 2-3 guys were gone, and I decided to go talent over need.

[WarFan]

Tried the draft sim:
30
S CALVIN PRYOR
LOUISVILLE
56
WR BRANDIN COOKS
OREGON STATE
61
CB BRADLEY ROBY
OHIO STATE
77
ILB CHRISTIAN JONES
FLORIDA STATE
94
WR MARTAVIS BRYANT
CLEMSON
125
CB KEITH MCGILL
UTAH
158
DT DEANDRE COLEMAN
CALIFORNIA
189
WR JEFF JANIS
SAGINAW VALLEY STATE
218
CB AARON COLVIN
OKLAHOMA
219
C GABE IKARD
OKLAHOMA
220
QB CONNOR SHAW
SOUTH CAROLINA
222
TE RICHARD RODGERS
CALIFORNIA

Missed a QB earlier in the draft. Logan Thomas was available for the 4th round comp, so add him.

[WarFan]

I think adding another 4th or 5th round prospect is enough, but we'll only really know what they think of the line after the draft. Or if they sign Kilgore to a Boone/Williams style extension early in the offseason.

All the beat writers are saying Kilgore got a three year extension. Just about guarantees he's the starting center, so any draft pick is gonna be for depth.